vsa with Malcolm

eu shake out today if you ask me ....

More like that was perfect vsa set up for a few pips.

I was looking more at the bigger picture what happened after yao ming, because he was still in that trade.

http://emini-watch.com/recession-or-...rbandits/2222/

when prices go up/down on low volume before the market closes on Friday is this still considered to be no demand/supply? or should this information be disregarded?

First off I have to say, "wow". The chart on the left is from a week ago Friday and the one on the right is from Friday. The pattern is very similar. I think I said something about not knowing what to do tomorrow (Monday) but knowing what to do always......

Okay, I wanted to try something different that I hope can benefit a lot of the newbies.

We are going to start out with a couple of definitions. These definitions are important and will be key to how we proceed. Obviously there are slight variations that show up in the real market, but these text book definitions are our starting point.

UP THRUST: A Wide Spread up bar (closes higher than the previous bar) that makes a higher high and not a lower low than the previous bar, closes on or near the low if its range and has increasing volume.

HIDDEN UP THRUST: A Wide Spread down bar ( Closes lower than the previous bar) that makes a higher high and not a lower low than the previous bar, closes on or near the low of its range and has increasing volume.

UP THRUST OVER 2 BARS: This is 2 bar pattern. The first bar closes up (higher than the previous bar), closes on or near its high and has increasing volume. The second bar, will close lower than the first bar. It should in fact close lower than the low of the first bar and be on or near the low of its range on increasing volume. Please note that the second bar often closes lower than the low of the bar prior to the first bar in a this two bar pattern.

NO DEMAND: A narrow range up bar (closes higher than the previous bar) that makes a higher high and not a lower low, closes in the middle or high of its range, and has volume less than the previous two intervals.
No demands can also be inside bars. That is, not make a higher high or a lower low than the previous bar.

Okay, there is something that we need to clear up right now. Notice that none of the above definitions say anything about being in the right place. An Up Thrust is an Up Thrust no matter where it occurs. A No Demand bar (note I did not say signal) is a No Demand bar no matter where it occurs. This does not mean you can go short on any and every No Demand you see however. The reason Tom and Gavin have "refined" the definitions to include "in the right place", is because people would simply see a No Demand and try to short it. It does not work that way. Background matters for the trade. It doesn't matter for the definition, however.

Don't be confused. The way we are going to read (and eventually trade) the chart is by looking left-the background. But we are going to start out by looking for these bar definitions in a vacuum.

Take a look at the chart on the left.

The most important bar is the one labeled Hidden Up Thrust. Why HiddenGap? Because it marks the top? No. We only know that after the fact. In real time we know that a hidden up thrust is a sign of weakness. As soon as we recognize this bar, the question becomes "what has come before it?". *** I am skipping a step that I will go back to at the end****

As soon as we see this hidden up thrust which we have an unambiguous definition for, we can start to look left. The first thing we want to do is start looking for high volume up bars on a wide spread. We know the market does not like these types of bar because they can contain hidden selling (weakness). In this example, 5 interval prior we have a wide spread up bar in increasing volume closing off its high with the next bar down. If the volume was bullish, then the next bar should not be down. Therefore some supply must have entered here.

We move back and find our key or , Yao Ming, bar. The volume is ultra high the spread is wide and the close is off the high. The next bar is up rather than down. But take a closer look at that bar. It is a narrow range up bar that makes a higher high and not a lower low, closes in the middle or high of its range and does it on volume less than the previous two intervals. This is No Demand. True enough, price falls slightly from the No Demand. Since we are looking back, we can see that price moves sideways after the Yao Ming bar and then inertia/momentum take price higher.

We now know a lot about the state of the market. We have a "trigger" number which is set at the close of the Yao Ming bar. And we know what we would like to see to get short. Price close below the trigger line and then attempt to move back up towards it but on less volume.

If you have read some of my posts, you may recall that I said I like to see that No Demand after the Up thrust when looking to enter. In this example that No Demand does appear. Notice that it attempts to close above the trigger number but fails. Again we note that the bar itself is a narrow range up bar closing on or near its high with volume less than the previous two intervals. It is an inside bar so it does not make a higher high, but we have already stated inside bars can be No Demands.

This is where we want to get short. This is the best place to get short. Note that we are not in at the Hidden Up Thrust which forms the "top". We are not trying to catch tops and bottoms even if we can identify them.

There is a second chance entry on the Up Thrust that follows the No Demand. Some may note that this Up Thrust is within the body of a WRB, but you need either an open hash of candles to see this. This entry is of course supported by the fact that price is below the Price Attractor Line and that line is falling (red) and the fact that the hull average is falling (pink background).

Which brings me to the step I skipped previously. We got here from a pure VSA non-aided point of view thus far. The VSA aided point of view would add this step. You don't have to recognize the Hidden Up Thrust as it happens. In fact only after the hull changes direction (color) do you have to then go back and ask yourself, "why?". I believe Malcolm said he has an alert that goes off when the hull changes color. That’s when he starts to look at the chart for SOS or SOW. In this example, we have 20 minutes to analyze the chart after the Hull turns the background pink before the close of the No Demand bar.

Most of the time when we show charts we do start at the left edge and work our way right, but in real-time we can actually start at the right edge and work our way left.

Is there an indicator out there that will mark on your chart under each candle it's volume and spread?

A big Thanks from me, HiddenGap, for all your efforts!

P.S. By the way, what is the name of the Gavin's book, where is written about "trigger" number which is set at the close of the Yao Ming bar?

this is a colletion of hiddengaps explanatory charts before he put here..

http://docs.google.com/fileview?id=0...thkey=CK7u4fkD

Thanks a lot, Bruceli

hey guys whats up. Lets talk about vsa concept.

I think the main idea of "Smart Money drives the price" can not be useful at forex market. Let me explain.

Forex market has vey huge volume compared to stock market. Some institutional traders and funds can change prices of non liquid stock, its simple cuz if you want to move price of stock then you neednt have very huge amount of money, cuz volume of one stock trading is not very huge. So you can catch some stop orders of other traders, you can shake out some traders, you can manipulate price to go up or down if you have some money that institutional traders have.

But what about forex?) Just imagine how much money you need to drive price up or down for just 10 pips? Its VERY HUGE AMOUNT OF MONEY. Its ok if you are work in central bank or some other big banks.
But central banks have other goals, banks don't want to shake you out and drop from the trade. They try to do much more fundamental things. Some central banks interested to keep currency high compared to other currencies, its about economics, not about speculation.

Even if you are the big institutional trader you cant move the price in forex. But are you Smart Money(like Tom Williams said)?
Sure, you have good profits by trading. You earn much money for your hedge fund. You can trade billions, you are the big shark at stock market. But you are small fish at huge forex market.

So do you think that two uptrust bars can stop and reverse the price from up to down? May be but price can reverse again after some 10-15 pips cuz some big bank just sell some huge amount of euro for his big client.

Don't you think there is no Smart Money at forex? I mean big banks not interested in rise or fall down currencies. Bank dealers just exchange currencies for their clients.

I respect all VSA followers and i think its good art of chart reading and some traders can read the goals of big players and trade with their flow.
And may be its better to follow big players at stock market, but forex is so big and there are so many professional players so you can't say that "this player is the smart money" and "this player is noob, so i will take all his money".

What do you think about it guys?

thank you

I'm fairly new to VSA...been learning and applying its principles to forex for the past 6 months or so. IMO whether you beleive 'smart money' exists or not is really irrelevant. the fact that the forex market is huge is what makes manipulation more possible i think (ie more volatile), but nonetheless the market makers still leave their footprints on the charts and that is what VSA helps me identify. If i can identify what market makers are doing, then i can be more confident in being on the right side of the market. i don't care who the smart money is...there will always be strong holders and weak holders, i strive to be a strong holder and VSA is helping me with that.

ok,my friend that answer me why does the market at sydney open onyl move in a range of about 10 pips,and at london and new york is goes to 50 pips

Yes, VSA does not work in Forex.

But seriously, father of VSA Tom Williams has a favorit pair in FX, Cable.
Yes, there is a much more money in FX than Stocks, but the signs are there too, you can see when there is No demand or No Supply.
Just have to practice. Todd Krueger, one of Tom`s students, said that it took 3+ years to learn to see VSA.
Take a look last high in EU H4 or H1, that is a End of the Rising Market, 1.428.

is forex really non centralized ? IMHO it is heavily computer traded , using s/r ... and very regulated hence eu is rarely allowed to move more than 1.6 cents per day

' they ' just want you to think it is non centralized

vsa works just fine in forex .... do not ask me why or the mechanics behind it ... just that it does

Signs are there, GU M15.

Edit, that last NS is one bar to the right, just made this one for the guy who had a doubts about VSA in FX.

I think someone is confusing smart money with smart hedge fund. I don't think someone moves price on their own very easily but if we look at price movement it catches stops, locks in weak traders, shakes them out, and there's definitely selling/buying into buying/selling. Smart money is a concept of large operators with huge amounts of money (banks, funds, governments, other loaded entities combined) that are actually doing all the moving of price.

Anyway, VSA is based on common sense and logic and it works. And EU is testing previous support now. I'm sad range play isn't working out lol

Looking closer at EU there seems to be support at the bottom of the range and although the price came off the top of the range last bar is well off the lows so far.

Long legged doji on 1H. Signs of turning down again. Let's wait a bit.

Edit: it tries to penetrate small resistance at .3180 - 3190. If doesn't happen then down I guess.