"Hardcore" Analysis

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Premise:
This thread is about various analysis that i want to share here, it's not a trading system but hopefully this can be useful to make or confirm various trading decisions.
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Hello,

Today i was looking my charts with an Analyst eyes, instead of a trader eyes as i normally do.

And i've made some analyses on the current eurusd short-medium term situation.

Below the image:

http://img718.imageshack.us/img718/6...sdhardcore.gif

As we can see, today the eur broke an important level (1.3439) that ended a distribution (a) phase that was lasting from almost one month.
Now, price entered on an accumulation (a) phase (bullish).

It's interesting to notice that at the moment, on a lower wave-level, the market is on a distribution (b) phase (uptrend), this is the phase where we've broken the level 1.3439.

And a more lower/fast level, we are now on an accumulation (c) phase (downtrend).

This can be a good place for place buys (aggressive traders) (short-medium term), conservative traders may stay on the line waiting for a clear move that end this accumulation (c) phase.

Thank you for reading and feel free to post any reply.

Thanks for the interesting idea. Here's my initial impression.
Note: The following addresses only the space before the last two smaller areas and only implies consideration of the smaller space before the space below the leftmost horizontal trendline. It also excludes, for lack of comparison with others their size, the two larger areas.

Your smaller area divisions have similar area divisions on the other side of the big distribution area. The counterparts go in the opposite direction. Thus, I'm confused on how you can label distribution (of shorted shares, or of large players' long trades amongst small players -- not sure) as being long.
Perhaps it's my bias toward temporary patterns and trendlines.

Your chart did help me figure how Gann-Fan-like areas, one of which is most of the chart here, obey midlines (the line segments each with a dot at its middle). They do this here in compromise with the two mega-areas, balancing the old with the new at the first horizontal trendline at the left.
This approach to drawing the trendlines enabled me to bring logic to a highly exact horizontal trendline, the last on the right.

The initial reason I used the label was to figure why you did not consider them as smaller areas; it seems that the opposition area divides into two opposing areas in a way that both areas accumulate and distribute, making them need to be included in an overall area of distribution.
Further, the area labelled 'opposition' near the center of the entire chart I considered keeps much of the Gann Fan - like area (before the chart's last big run) high and other smaller areas (which I like to call 'temporary patterns') around it also opposing each other.
Because of the smaller areas' opposition, I would consider the smaller area on the far-most left that I surrounded with a box as part of the larger area of distribution, too. Then again, I suppose it could merely be an overlap area of the two bigger areas (especially since there's little to go on with the bigger areas) and thus keep with the larger accumulation area as noted.

Hello,

an update on what is happening on eurusd.

The accumulation phase is finished a few hours ago with the break of 1.3343 level, at this point we're again on distribution (distribution c + b + a).

However, the last accumulation was something strong, there is a possibility that price is re-accumulating (sell positions) and will distribute on a further downmove. But it's just a possibility that can become reality only with a break of 1.3283 level.

Below the image:

http://img835.imageshack.us/img835/7...dhardcore2.gif

P.s.
I had accumulated some buy positions during this last acc. phase, at the very moment i remain bullish biased on this pair, but a break of today low would probably change my mind on it.

ha-pattern:
Thank you for your nice post, i'm sorry to say that i havn't understood very well your image, can you please post some more example?

Thank you very much!

Hello,

third update on eurusd:

http://img152.imageshack.us/img152/2...dhardcore3.gif

Such phase was in fact a reaccumulation one, and now market is in a nice distribution mode.

It is interesting to notice that a break of 1.3165 would put the word "end" to any bullish pattern, giving the market a clear prespective of down move.
In such case, our next big target will be 1.23 (longterm).

P.s.
We've covered our buys for a loss, and now our exposure on eurusd is strictly negative (sell).

Let's see how it develop..

Your approach is very frugal and all-encompassing at the same time, a welcome attribute. It inspired me to improve my own incomplete (and thus unrepeatable) method, which is all my last post really says.
Good trading to you.

Hello,

I've made two images about some analysis on eurusd pair, the first one is an image of 1min chart, precisely about the market activity of yesterday from the opening of newyork session.

http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/148...nnysession.gif

Ok, i've tried to make a good work on highlight the various phases, the green rectangles are something like sessions where the market for that particular session for that particular time, is bullish.
Same for red rectangles, but they are bearish.

You can see that not all the green sessions end in positive (ending price > starting price), and not all the red session end in negative. This is because the market equilibrium is not perfect, it is dynamic and change continually.

Now, our work is, looking the various market activity, understand or try to guess if a current session (bullish or bearish) is going to have a good flow, a good volume that can cause nice movements.

As we can see the ny opened with a good red session, followed by another good green session, then a red one very little and totally rejected from the market.

Then a rejected green session, followed by a fast red one.
This particular session was very important because in such session the market falled below the low of the last red session.

At this point, we had a green session that was nothing but a good place to accumulate sell positions with the big boys.

Followed by a big, good distribution red session.

Then again green, red, etc..


I think for now is better to stop here, my next post will discuss the actual eurusd situation looking from the 4hour chart.

Thank you for reading!

Ok, now an image of eurusd, 4hours chart.


http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/3127/eurusd4ore.gif


As we can see price is consolidating after a strong distribution session (the downtrend of november).

Soon after such session, the market had some sessions that was a serie of accumulation sessions, we had one green session (negative), one red (positive), and a green session (negative for now) that did break also the high of our last green one.

At that point, price was clearly rejected (for now, the session is still opened and everything still can happen).
The interesting thing in this image is that our current session (green one) is seeing the price getting rejected and approaching a support level, particulary the support level that was also the low of our last red accumulation session.

A breakout of such low can start a new distribution session, and that can mean a big price movement (presumibly on the downside).

Of course those are only hypotesis, we can't affirm nothing for now because the price is still in his green session and regardless this apparently rejection, the session is still valid untill the break of such support.

So let's keep an eye on this pair, as you can see from the image i've already opened some sells trades, however anticipating a breakout can sometime be dangerous and i don't suggest anybody to do so, untill you know the risks involved in doing it.

That's all for now, i will make an update as market make his update!

Thank you for reading!

Hello,

Interesting trading day today, unluckly we didn't placed any trade as I did decided to not place any trade today as the market situation was not clear (the biggest one) and big volatility was expected.
I just prefer to start placing trades again on moonday open, and right now the today price action was pretty good and finally we have some clear overview.

However, below an image of 5min chart of today, let's see and comment it:

http://img510.imageshack.us/img510/986/eu5mtoday.gif

As we see, the day started on tokyo open with a beautiful up-session, reversed some hours before the ny open, and the following down-session was beautiful too, today would had been a great profitable day, but however.. there will be other nice opportunities in the next days.

Situation now is very interesting on the long-term charts, I will post analysis about that in my next article, thank you for reading!

Have a nice weekend

Ok now, let's analyze the long-term situation.
Friday downbreakout was very important as i'm writing from a few posts, this breakdown actually opened a new prespective for the sellers.

Below an image of 4h chart:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_XkHLwEJ9jb.../eu4htoday.gif

Ok, as we can see here, we had a nice down-session during november, price then reversed and went to find resistance (the last little green session), touching also the 61% fibo. Soon after it did get rejected, and today we had the breakout that end officially the retrace-session, and we're in down-session again.

My personal idea is that we'll go deep down from here, so it's probable that next week we may open some sell-trades to take advantage of this opportunity.

A reverse scenario is also possible, if for some reason price fail to break the last session lows and instead break the 1.3500 level (up), next resistance will be 1.43.

Always remember, everything is possible, so trade carefully and take it easy!

Hello,

This is a technical analysis of EurChf Pair, currently in a major downtrend started from the end of 2008.
We had the first retrace in the 2010-09-15 / 2010-11-1 period, and we are now in the second medium downmove.
On a minor "fractal" view, this second medium-downmove had the first retrace in the 2010-11-03 / 2010-11-20 period, and the recent breakout of 1.2800 level started what is the second minor-downmove.

http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/214/echf.gif

At this point, we can say the the market looking from an overall major downmove prespective, is already very expanded so we don't expect major long-term drops.
However, in this situation we can still expect price getting back to its all-time lows.

This was a decisively long-term market view, zooming in the current minor downmove, we can see that there is still a big space for further down moves, however the very first retrace of this downmove is "ugly", with prise recovering of almost 150 pips.
The minor downmove is still intact, the key-points to look for a potential reverse-scenario are 1.3000 and 1.3050.
While the intraday levels to look for a minor downmove continuation confirmation are the 1.2865 and 1.2900 areas.

Eventually some good targets may be 1.2675 and 1.2580.

Thank you for reading.

Hello,

Below a technical analysis of the EurUsd pair:

The high momentum wave (green channel) that bring the pair in the 1.3860 seems to be ended.

At this point the price is continuing the downwave (red channel) that did let it go down from the 1.3860 level to the 1.3508 level.

With an ideal target (for this continuation) to 1.3500-1.3400 area, this move can prepare the price for a further downmove, targeting the 1.2900-1.2600 area, continuing the bigger downwave (violet channel).

On the bigger scanrio, we should not forget that price is also running a continuation of the bigger bullish wave (blue channel), targeting the 1.4200-1.4700 area.

Being in the middle of two opposite waves, it may also remain in a range (symmetrical wedge) between the violet resistance-trendline and the blue support-trendline, untill the break of one of them.

Thank you for reading

(Images below)

Hello,

With friday trading eurusd reached his first support area, what will happen now?

Well, at the moment the pair is on a downwave (from the violet channel resistance to the violet channel support), in the meantime a break of 1.3750 would validate a upchannel that would break any bearish scenario.
Such upchannel is the black dotted one (it is dotted because untill a break of 1.3750 it is not confirmed at all, so it have no real significance right now. Only in case of 1.3750 break it will become a valid scenario, or alternatively if price will consolidate now, the break-point can be a new one (lower than 1.3750), but for now 1.3750 is the level we should look for a bullish scenario).

Breaks apart, the price is in a downwave now, and the wave is intact and working well.

I'll make a prompt update if/when the bearish-scenario would be not valid anymore, thank you for reading!

Image below

Hello,

Today i want to propose a detailed view of the various supports and resistances on the EurUsd pair.

The situation is interesting, as the bullish scenario remain intact, price is now pointing up after finding a minor support (the last blue rectangle), before such support it just found a medium-resistance on 1.3860 area (last green rectangle), all this is happening just after a rejection from a major support at 1.2874 (last red rectangle).

So.. my personal idea about this chart is that price is now going to find the next minor resistance at 1.3860 level, such level is also a previous medium-resistance, there is probably a good cluster of orders on such level, and it may act as a strong resistance, or it can give a "turbo" effect to a strong further up move.
We will see some detailed analysis on lower timeframes when/if such break will happen, to better understand what market will be going to do next.

Thank you very much!

P.s.
My previous post ended with "I'll make a prompt update if/when the bearish-scenario would be not valid anymore, thank you for reading!", however i did forget to update this thread, sorry for that.

Hello,

The Eurusd pair is doing a nice upwave from some weeks, right now standing on a resistance area, a break of it would call for 1.4300 level, however we're starting taking in consideration the idea of a possible rejection from the current resistance level.

As we see, the current upwave is seeing the price in a great expansion mode, but the esitation on breaking the 1.3860 level can be seen as a need of new buyers, and if such level is not broken soon, the pair may come back to supports finding new buyers and eventually reversing the entire bullish scenario.

A good level to watch (and eventually take profits) can be the one from 1.3525 (ex minor support) to 1.3569 (ex medium resistance), everything remain bullish for now but buyers should be careful and act promptly if price start pointing down.

Thank you for reading!