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Silent Service Method

  • #11,441
  • Dec 10, 2010 3:42am Dec 10, 2010 3:42am
Quoting 4xAddict
May be pointing to a coming breakdown of the risk on/off trade correlations too.

Given the swiss are sitting on so much gold (allegedly), a major event in europe may also cause a sharp rise in the chf.

We have talked before about the number of outstanding underwater CHF denominated loans across europe (eastern europe). If these unravel there will need to be a strong wave of chf buying done by swiss banks that could support such a move without pronounced eur strengthening.
Interesting theories. Viable too I am afraid. Good points that I hadn't thought of.
  • #11,442
  • Dec 10, 2010 11:24am Dec 10, 2010 11:24am
Update on my EUR/GBP short. My USD/JPY is currently up 22 pips, nothing much to talk about with that one.
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  • #11,443
  • Dec 11, 2010 12:40am Dec 11, 2010 12:40am
blog has been updated

question of the week

audio piece

article
  • #11,444
  • Dec 11, 2010 10:37am Dec 11, 2010 10:37am
Hi! sub. commander,CW, I absolutely agree with you the way you trade on high timeframe. It is so powerful and less stress. Let me learn more from you.

Thanks.
  • #11,445
  • Dec 12, 2010 1:17am Dec 12, 2010 1:17am
Quoting orionfx
Hi! sub. commander,CW, I absolutely agree with you the way you trade on high timeframe. It is so powerful and less stress. Let me learn more from you.

Thanks.
Thanks mate. Glad you enjoy the thread.

I uploaded a video on my blog on one of the pairs I am watching at the moment......take a peak....
  • #11,446
  • Dec 12, 2010 10:17pm Dec 12, 2010 10:17pm
Start of a new week. Looks like we are waiting again. Do yourselves a favor and be flat by the end of this week, unless of course it is a LONG TERM TRADE. Anything less than based upon the weekly is gong to be considered "noise" after the 15th or so.

I know a lot of you new traders don't really know what to expect during the holidays, but I am going to give it to you straight: Forex SUCKS during late December!

There may be a trade or two this week, but I wouldn't sit on them too long.
  • #11,447
  • Dec 13, 2010 8:08am Dec 13, 2010 8:08am
Here we go? The flag on the USD/CHF chart might be getting triggered today. We dont know yet, but it looks like it might just happen. If it doesn't break, this flag could become a bullish channel?
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  • #11,448
  • Dec 13, 2010 11:34am Dec 13, 2010 11:34am
Quoting clockwork71
Here we go? The flag on the USD/CHF chart might be getting triggered today. We dont know yet, but it looks like it might just happen. If it doesn't break, this flag could become a bullish channel?
I'm already in Chris - I think it's already broken. Might pull back but worth the risk IMO.
  • #11,449
  • Dec 13, 2010 12:59pm Dec 13, 2010 12:59pm
CW, what are your thoughts on the USDJPY and EURGBP as holds over the Dec/Jan silly season? I have been short EURGBP for the second bite at it since 0.8550 area and long USDJPY around 83.55.

I am going to be intermittently on the web and trading between now and mid Jan so wondering what you think are acceptable downside risks in those two without taking an unnecessary gamble?

I was looking around the 82 region on the USDJPY and 8650-87 on the EURGBP. Interested in your thoughts as you seem to be in these two pairs as long term buy/sell holds which I had originally not considered beyond a few weeks.
  • #11,450
  • Dec 13, 2010 1:08pm Dec 13, 2010 1:08pm
Quoting stewrigh
I'm already in Chris - I think it's already broken. Might pull back but worth the risk IMO.

I am too.
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  • #11,451
  • Dec 13, 2010 1:25pm Dec 13, 2010 1:25pm
On the subject of the future of the euro, this link might be worth a read:

http://mpettis.com/2010/11/the-rough...an-adjustment/
  • #11,452
  • Dec 13, 2010 2:04pm Dec 13, 2010 2:04pm
Quoting 4xAddict
CW, what are your thoughts on the USDJPY and EURGBP as holds over the Dec/Jan silly season? I have been short EURGBP for the second bite at it since 0.8550 area and long USDJPY around 83.55.

I am going to be intermittently on the web and trading between now and mid Jan so wondering what you think are acceptable downside risks in those two without taking an unnecessary gamble?

I was looking around the 82 region on the USDJPY and 8650-87 on the EURGBP. Interested in your thoughts as you seem to be in these two pairs as long term buy/sell holds which...

I personally am holding both, but to be honest - if I had to dump one it would be the USD/JPY. My stops are different, as I traded based off of a larger move. Currently I still have my stops above the monthly pinbar. I haven't even erased the risk out of this trade yet. The reason is simple: I am only risking 2% and could be gaining a hell of a lot more. It's all about R/R for me on this one.

As for you - it comes down to comfort, but that area you mentioned about in the EUR/GBP is a decent S/R zone certainly.

Chris
  • #11,453
  • Dec 13, 2010 6:09pm Dec 13, 2010 6:09pm
Quoting clockwork71
I personally am holding both, but to be honest - if I had to dump one it would be the USD/JPY. My stops are different, as I traded based off of a larger move. Currently I still have my stops above the monthly pinbar. I haven't even erased the risk out of this trade yet. The reason is simple: I am only risking 2% and could be gaining a hell of a lot more. It's all about R/R for me on this one.

As for you - it comes down to comfort, but that area you mentioned about in the EUR/GBP is a decent S/R zone certainly.

Chris
Thx for the insight Chris, let's be honest they UJ long could be trade of the decade if it goes to 120 on a Japanese debt collapse which is no longer a fairy tale........
  • #11,454
  • Dec 14, 2010 10:12am Dec 14, 2010 10:12am
Quoting 4xAddict
Thx for the insight Chris, let's be honest they UJ long could be trade of the decade if it goes to 120 on a Japanese debt collapse which is no longer a fairy tale........

That's pretty much my hope. I mean, not for the Japanese to fall apart, but that things return to more normalize levels in that pair.

If it doesn't, I will get another signal. I will risk little, and eventually be correct.

Chris
  • #11,455
  • Dec 14, 2010 10:13am Dec 14, 2010 10:13am
Did you know?

There is a Forex MT4 robot on the market called "FOREX BLING"? lol

I'm sure somebody somewhere thinks it's a great thing to let trade their $10,000 account.

Wow.
  • #11,456
  • Dec 14, 2010 11:46am Dec 14, 2010 11:46am
Quoting clockwork71
Did you know?

There is a Forex MT4 robot on the market called "FOREX BLING"? lol

I'm sure somebody somewhere thinks it's a great thing to let trade their $10,000 account.

Wow.
Probably the preferred diversification method for those who believe Jim Cramer
  • #11,457
  • Dec 14, 2010 5:32pm Dec 14, 2010 5:32pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Probably the preferred diversification method for those who believe Jim Cramer
  • #11,458
  • Dec 14, 2010 5:34pm Dec 14, 2010 5:34pm
Update on Swissy......
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  • #11,459
  • Dec 14, 2010 7:31pm Dec 14, 2010 7:31pm
AUD/USD short setting up nicely.....probably worth 200-300 pips. It is counter-trend, I wouldn't pile into it too heavy.
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  • #11,460
  • Dec 15, 2010 12:46pm Dec 15, 2010 12:46pm
The Aussie short worked out well for those of you that took it. One thought though -

We are in an obvious uptrend, so there is no need to get overly greedy on a trade like this. You should be at b/e by now, as you are hitting the first level of minor resistance. Of course, you could just take partial profits, or even take all profits.

It is Dec. 15 after all.....

Chris
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