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Ok, Lets do it - Developing a Highly Profitable System

  • #101
  • Edited 8:11pm Dec 11, 2010 7:48pm | Edited 8:11pm
Quoting Adal
I'm not sure what you were expecting. Coming to a forum, singing a song, holding hands together, and then the millions start pouring in?

There are no secrets except the actual trading systems. Trading is about having an edge. The moment you share your edge with the world, it's not an edge anymore. Some peoples edge is collocated super-fast computers, others it's advanced mathematical prediction models. Some have a really good gut instinct. Whatever it is, you need one.

The second thing is what would you do with somebody's else edge if they...
Honestly.. I expected forward progression through phase 1.. now I have changed my expectation tho to many half glass empty people leaving comments.. it was less about what I learned from the markets and more what I learned from online forums

and if anyone knows secrets better than me its a sure fact that the rumor of 90% of traders lose money is completely false but then again thats not really a secret is it.. its just not many see it clearly.. but actually over 90% of traders win.. which is a better fact .. not a secret you just can't see it clearly



Ok but on another note, if you have anything to contribute to phase 1 keep them coming, I am greatful for the process we have made
  • #102
  • Dec 11, 2010 7:53pm Dec 11, 2010 7:53pm
Quoting Marv
You're asking all the wrong questions.

Forget about me for a second and really think about what Adal said for starters (of which you showed a complete lack of understanding).

Stop worrying so much about us "hiding some holy grail secret from you", realize that that's not how it works. All information is out there, there is nothing new under the sun (mostly). You just need to find out what you need to look at, how you need to look at it, and how to trade it, things that most people are missing; all of this requires work on your part.That...
Ok, so you just stated a ton of things I have addressed in posts before.. and to assume I am looking for the holy grail is completely crazy and insulting.

never once did I say I am worried about you having a secret.. I was addressing that if someone believes they have a secret they themselves are very misinformed except in very rare cases of insider information but even that at times is worthless

so here you are saying things like "All information is out there, there is nothing new under the sun (mostly)" which is exactly what I was saying.. I don't understand what the hell your trying to say then.. the exact thing I'm saying?

and I apologize if I lack your understand.. its very easy to understand things in a million different ways.. you see its the beauty of interpretation

everything we say eventually comes back to market.. so I'll say something about the market.. about how you understand it.. does it move in waves.. levels.. bands.. its all about interpretation and the many ways it works for you.. not for everyone else.. well I had to try to get some talk on track back to this thread..
  • #103
  • Dec 11, 2010 8:32pm Dec 11, 2010 8:32pm
Quote
and if anyone knows secrets better than me its a sure fact that the rumor of 90% of traders lose money is completely false but then again thats not really a secret is it.. its just not many see it clearly.. but actually over 90% of traders win.. which is a better fact .. not a secret you just can't see it clearly
Define "win", "lose", "secret", and "trader". Such statements can be interpreted in many ways. An accurate statement would be that the vast majority of market participants are losing ground to the minority of skilled participants.

Quote
never once did I say I am worried about you having a secret.. I was addressing that if someone believes they have a secret they themselves are very misinformed except in very rare cases of insider information but even that at times is worthless
You're asking people to share secrets claiming they are not valuable; if you do not know the secret, how can you claim it is not valuable, and if it is not valuable, why do you need to ask for it?

Quote
so I'll say something about the market
You're asking for people in the most competitive activity in human society to band together and create a "highly profitable system", and we're to believe you're an authority on the market?
  • #104
  • Dec 11, 2010 8:42pm Dec 11, 2010 8:42pm
Quoting Mr J
Define "win", "lose", "secret", and "trader". Such statements can be interpreted in many ways. An accurate statement would be that the vast majority of market participants are losing ground to the minority of skilled participants.

You're asking people to share secrets claiming they are not valuable; if you do not know the secret, how can you claim it is not valuable, and if it is not valuable, why do you need to ask for it?

You're asking for people in the most competitive activity in human society to band together and create a "highly...
Thats exactly the point.. more than 90% of traders are losers and more than 90% are winners.. because everyone has losing and winning trades.. see what I mean

and I never claimed that there secret was not valuable.. I said 1) its probably not a huge secret.. and 2) if you share your "secret" most likely it will not be compromised.. ok so I shouldn't be so ignorant to rule out that there is a possibility that some secrets could be huge shiz.. but I doubt many if anyone here on FF withholding information does not fit the 2 things I just listen above in this paragraph..

why would you not take me as an authority on the market.. you have authority on the market as well.. if you trade the market you have some authority to express your opinions.. I never once stated what I said is 100% true.. I will say they are 100% my beliefs and I bet my beliefs are profitable even if you don't agree with them.. same is true for how contrarians make money with different beliefs than yours..

but the question of authority I'm unsure of.. because why would you need to take me as an authority in the market to start a thread and generate a system from a group.. wouldn't you be more concern if I was one of the many people on the systems page posting a system.. then you should question the authority I have to claim my fancy pink dot shows up enter the trade type system...
  • #105
  • Dec 11, 2010 9:06pm Dec 11, 2010 9:06pm
Quote
and I never claimed that there secret was not valuable.. I said 1) its probably not a huge secret.. and 2) if you share your "secret" most likely it will not be compromised.
Okay, but what reason is there to share it? How does a skilled trader benefit? To make a living trader is to take from others, so we can't expect them to give without receiving something worthwhile in return.

It doesn't really matter if it isn't compromised. Knowledge is valuable and often hard to gain, so it shouldn't surprise you if a skilled trader feels territorial with his knowledge.

Quote
because why would you need to take me as an authority in the market to start a thread and generate a system from a group.. wouldn't you be more concern if I was one of the many people on the systems page posting a system
In which case you're not sharing, you're exploiting the group. The problem is that the group you're exploiting isn't of value, and you're not exploiting the group that is (those who are commenting negatively).

As for your talk of community and sharing, I don't believe we act our of generosity, but out of selfishness. I also don't believe selfishness is "wrong", but natural. I don't post here to share what I have learned, I read and post for my own interest. I read and post for amusement, information, ego, and self-discovery, and I expect we all read and post for similar reaons.
  • #106
  • Dec 11, 2010 9:26pm Dec 11, 2010 9:26pm
Quoting Mr J
Okay, but what reason is there to share it? How does a skilled trader benefit? To make a living trader is to take from others, so we can't expect them to give without receiving something worthwhile in return.

It doesn't really matter if it isn't compromised. Knowledge is valuable and often hard to gain, so it shouldn't surprise you if a skilled trader feels territorial with his knowledge.

In which case you're not sharing, you're exploiting the group. The problem is that the group you're exploiting isn't of value, and you're not exploiting...
Ok, I agree with everything you have just said.. in fact it should be huge on the wall somewhere literally..

Its just the simple fact that I find the selfishness attitudes pointless.. but while I find the negative and selfish comments pointless.. I suppose theres no reason for me to try and show the negative and selfish people that they are wasting there time.. because that effort in itself is probably going to fail in shedding some light into there perspective

and I cannot believe what you said about selfishness because it is exactly my outlook on the world and I want to have coffee and talk to you about all this shit.. because I always made this debate to people and there like.. "no what if someone goes to africa to help the hungry" and I explain they are still selfish and doing this act for themselves as they get self satisfaction emotionally, mentally and spiritually from helping others.. so in the end they did it for themselves.. but not many like my argument

well thats a discussion for another thread hehe..
  • #107
  • Dec 11, 2010 11:25pm Dec 11, 2010 11:25pm
Quoting Adal

You know what? Such a thing happened - two years ago, an EA called FAP Turbo ruled the Asian session. It actually worked and made profits for lots of people. It sold over 50,000 copies. At it's height, it was so used that it moved the market all by itself during the night. The banks and the brokers started losing a lot of money so they widened the spread. Guess what happened? It stopped working anymore.
Same thing happened to news trading too. The most common tactic was news straddle and another uncommon one was using oanda box option. When a concrete edge is exploited among the world, the edge will be vanished sooner than you expected because no one stupid enough to bet against you if it is a proven loss deal.
  • #108
  • Dec 11, 2010 11:36pm Dec 11, 2010 11:36pm
Quoting newyear498
There is nothing that needs to be spoon fed here.. in all your years of hard work you have not found any hidden dynamics because there are no hidden dynamics.. everyone is capable of seeing these dynamics they are not hidden.. most just overlook it

for example there is no secret as to what price in its current state represents.. again its no secret.. its right in-front of your face that the current price action represents the overall markets prediction of where the price of a that pair will go in the future.. yet its being represented in the...
No hidden dynamics? You must be kidding with chaotician.
  • #109
  • Dec 12, 2010 12:00am Dec 12, 2010 12:00am
Quoting ForexQuant
No hidden dynamics? You must be kidding with chaotician.
but chaos is not hidden.. its right infront of your face.. and you would be a fool to think chaos is random..

its just a matter of seeing it clearly and figuring out its structure.. chaos is just a word that literally means things appear confusing and disordered.. a gun shooting seems chaotic.. trace back the evidence and make sense of it all and you see it has a very natural order to it
  • #110
  • Dec 12, 2010 12:23am Dec 12, 2010 12:23am
Quoting newyear498
but chaos is not hidden.. its right infront of your face.. and you would be a fool to think chaos is random..

its just a matter of seeing it clearly and figuring out its structure.. chaos is just a word that literally means things appear confusing and disordered.. a gun shooting seems chaotic.. trace back the evidence and make sense of it all and you see it has a very natural order to it
If you already saw it and understood the underlying rules within the non-deterministic chaotic of price movement, then you should know where to find profit and you dont need this thread anymore.

btw gun shooting is a bad example. Layman's view of chaos != Scientific view of chaos.
  • #111
  • Dec 12, 2010 12:26am Dec 12, 2010 12:26am
Quoting ForexQuant
If you already saw it and understood the underlying rules within the non-deterministic chaotic of price movement, then you should know where to find profit and you dont need this thread anymore.

btw gun shooting is a bad example. Layman's view of chaos != Scientific view of chaos.
well.. if you can see && understand the underlying rules you would not need this thread... i dont know about that.. understanding chaos cannot exactly predict price movement.. it could allow you to understand why what has happen has taken place.. and to the degree it allows you to predict can require to many dynamics for your brain to process before the price would more in a market situation.. and possibly to many dynamics that would require a hell of a computer program to automate.. and I never said I understand the rules personally I simply stated that I can see the chaos.. its not hidden from me.. have I figure out the inner workings.. no...

and fair enough in scientific terms
  • #112
  • Dec 12, 2010 12:50am Dec 12, 2010 12:50am
Look,

Its my belief that you can only factor in so many things to make a trading decision... I don't see the point in trying to integrate every single component per trade..

I would be very impressed to see any system that factors everything into consideration before taking a trade.. I would imagine a system of that nature does not subsist

so I see no point in arguing with me about everything I leave out in my study.. because many of you are leaving a hell of a lot of things out.. the purpose of phase 1 is figure out some main factors.. exploit them best we can

many of you feel the main factor of a solid system is not to share it.. it sounds like a pretty solid argument in some respects but then maybe there is a deeper truth and we need to stop trading based on both indicators and price action.. because both indicators and price action are well known and used in trading..

so if your system trades based on price action or indicators or fundamentals for that matter.. then you need to take a hard look at your system and the logic you brought to the table on this forum.. because those are not secrets and everyone is using them.. so the question is.. are you right.. are the big players compromising your fundamental, indicators, and price action... then where the hell do you go from here now? because you just found out your caught up in a world of shit and you were admitting it a moment ago.. unless you now disagree with your original thinking and now find a light in the tunnel and say "hey there is a clear relation to price bouncing off pivot points" but how can you believe that pivot points work when you also believe anything well known will be compromised by big players

(haa.. except forex quant.. I guess your ahead since your formulas could separate you hehe.. shit I should become a quant)

just some more thoughts
  • #113
  • Dec 12, 2010 3:07am Dec 12, 2010 3:07am
Quoting newyear498
well.. if you can see && understand the underlying rules you would not need this thread... i dont know about that.. understanding chaos cannot exactly predict price movement.. it could allow you to understand why what has happen has taken place.. and to the degree it allows you to predict can require to many dynamics for your brain to process before the price would more in a market situation.. and possibly to many dynamics that would require a hell of a computer program to automate.. and I never said I understand the rules personally I simply stated...
Well it does not help even if you know all the initial conditions (You called it 'dynamics'). You should know it if you want to talk 'chaos'.
  • #114
  • Edited 4:24am Dec 12, 2010 3:52am | Edited 4:24am
Quoting newyear498
Look,

Its my belief that you can only factor in so many things to make a trading decision... I don't see the point in trying to integrate every single component per trade..

I would be very impressed to see any system that factors everything into consideration before taking a trade.. I would imagine a system of that nature does not subsist

so I see no point in arguing with me about everything I leave out in my study.. because many of you are leaving a hell of a lot of things out.. the purpose of phase 1 is figure out some main factors.....
Common traders say "hey there is a clear relation to price bouncing off pivot points".

Quants say "hey there is a x% of probability that price bouncing off pivot points to y price before it goes z price.

Can you see the difference? Why the heck everyone think that quant should have a secret holy grail formula??? Is the formula important? No it is not. A model is much more important for you to begin a quantitative analysis. A simple moving average crossover is a kind of model, most people say it does not work because of lag or bla bla bla...But a quant may tell you that it does not work because the moment the crossover happened, the probability of next crossover drops exponentially with Lambda of xxx, bla bla bla...

A quant is a quant because they can quantify something that you 'think' may or may not correct! Yes both indicators and price action are well known and used in trading but the problem is can you quantify them? Can you quantify the edge gained from the experience of using them??? No you cant because different traders may draw a different conclusion on same indicators and price action. Even if 2 traders come with a sell conclusion may use a different SL & TP, which cause only 1 of them making money!!!
  • #115
  • Dec 12, 2010 8:24am Dec 12, 2010 8:24am
Quoting ForexQuant
Well it does not help even if you know all the initial conditions (You called it 'dynamics'). You should know it if you want to talk 'chaos'.
ok.. thats exactly what I said... it might not help you predict price movements

Chaos theory is the study of dynamical systems so what are you getting at saying I need to know the initial conditions if I want to talk chaos.. ok.. then I don't think you are qualified yourself to talk chaos.. because I doubt you know all the initial conditions.. there are a lot of dynamics to chaos

but then again that leads me back to the fact that you agreed with what I said so It weird how your posts sound like your trying to disagree with me but then say exactly what I said
  • #116
  • Dec 12, 2010 8:33am Dec 12, 2010 8:33am
Quoting ForexQuant
Common traders say "hey there is a clear relation to price bouncing off pivot points".

Quants say "hey there is a x% of probability that price bouncing off pivot points to y price before it goes z price.

Can you see the difference? Why the heck everyone think that quant should have a secret holy grail formula??? Is the formula important? No it is not. A model is much more important for you to begin a quantitative analysis. A simple moving average crossover is a kind of model, most people say it does not work because of lag or bla bla bla...But...
Ok.. so again back to my point about multiple people can interpret the market differently and still make money...

if a model is more important for beginning an analysis then why the fuck are all you people coming to my thread and arguing that the model I am creating is pointless

and everything you say just supports my arguments but you act like your right and I'm wrong.. when what your saying is that even if a "secret" method gets out it will not be compromised..

you just argued that fact as.. you stated everyone will quantify it differently.. this supports everything I said that if someone thinks they have to keep there knowledge a secret because reveling it will cause that secret to be compromised they are greatly mistaken.. because as you stated everyone else will quantify that secret differently and prevent the compromising it.. which again comes back to my point about interpretation
  • #117
  • Edited 9:35am Dec 12, 2010 9:06am | Edited 9:35am
Do you really think the brokers are changing there spreads in order to compromise fap turbo and such.. the fact is no...

Your forgetting that the edge of spreads has been against you from the beginning.. and its not there to "screw your over" its there so the brokers make money.. in effect it might screw you over but you mistake the brokers goal of making money for a direct intention of screwing you over..

so the news comes to get released.. they increase spreads since more trades are being placed.. fap turbo could have some effect on spreads changing because more volume of people trading due to fap turbo could cause spreads to change..

oh know heres a little secret.. should I share.. will it be compromised..

if you think fap turbo and news trades are being compromised by spread manipulation than did it ever occur in your noodles to get with a broker who offers flat spreads.. sure you'll have to pay a commission but in the end this will give you the edge over spread manipulation your so sure is taking place

but opps.. I revealed a secret about how to get around that manipulation.. I guess soon all the brokers out there are going to stop offering commissions if everyone switches brokers to beat the market..

statistical edges being exploited leads to everyone screwing us over.. then you must be arguing that trend lines and pivot points do not give statistical edges..




well you know what the truth is.. I don't think some of you guys have the ability to adapt your thinking.. you sound like conspiracy theorists.. too hard headed to see its really terrorist flying into buildings not the government.. too hard headed to see the brokers are just making money from spreads... not using spreads to steal your money

There is some grain of salt but only as far as you want to call things manipulation.. "changing a spread during high or low activity hours" can easily be reworded to "manipulating a spread during high activity hours". But thats more a manipulation of words than anything else.

There is manipulation in the markets but you are looking in all the wrong places.. real manipulation in the markets is happening when banks sell loans they know can't be paid off and then capitalize on that knowledge to short the stock market.. but that just goes back to what I said about insider information

I personally believe that there is a lot of things I don't know about the market.. but the crazy thing is you guys come into a thread like this arguing like there is not much about the market you don't know.. however what I'm finding from your arguments is that most of you guys are very misinformed.. and actually like someone mentioned before.. you are agreeing with each other in confirmation bias to support you misconceptions



  • #118
  • Dec 12, 2010 9:49am Dec 12, 2010 9:49am
Hi NY. Good to see you are standing your ground against all this naysayers. I can't believe how much effort some people will make, going around attacking other people with their pointless rants. Cmon, do you guys really get any satisfaction from it. You are not contributing at all to this thread. You are so ignorant that you completely miss the point of this thread.
  • #119
  • Edited 10:18am Dec 12, 2010 10:07am | Edited 10:18am
Coming back to questions you asked earlier NY about Trends and ranges. You are right, it is said that price only trends 25% of the time. That is just one more bogus stat we should ignore. It depends how you perceive it. It might be ranging on the daily TF for the last month, but it was trending up and down on the smaller TF's while in this bigger range.

I said it before, but in my opinion, we can trade both trending and ranging markets. I will trade a range if the range is larger than about 300-400 pips, anything smaller and the risk becomes too big for me.

I prefer trading trends though, it is what I base most my analysis on. Determining the trends currently present. There is most likely more than one trend present at any given time. Smart money creates the trends, we should just follow along.
  • #120
  • Dec 12, 2010 10:21am Dec 12, 2010 10:21am
Quoting newyear498
Do you really think the brokers are changing there spreads in order to compromise fap turbo and such.. the fact is no...
You used the word "manipulation" and "compromise", not us. Yes, brokers increased the spread because of "adverse selection". Have you heard of that? It's from a field of research called "market microstructure". Heard of that either?

Brokers don't care about FAP Turbo or news releases. They only care about not being adversely selected. When that happens (they start losing money) they increase the spreads. When they start losing clients or having inventory problems they decrease the spread.

And FAP Turbo was the reason that they started losing money. So they applied the standard response - increase the spreads. No conspiracy theory. Just science - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adverse_selection

You seem to know more than all of us combined. Everything is obvious to you - chaos theory, what smart money is doing. Everything works - indicators, price action, pivot points, there are no secrets.

Good luck in your endeavor, I won't bother you anymore since now you're just trolling.
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