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vsa with Malcolm

  • #7,801
  • Dec 8, 2010 7:40pm Dec 8, 2010 7:40pm
Quoting Intel
However, it has to be understood that computer traders make up approx 1% (actually I have no idea as to the actuall amount, but its reall small) of retail traders. Baring in mind that we are trying to follow the Smart Money and not the retail trader. The algo 'sentiment' (or lack of) will not bother us at all.

It is one of those things that we know happens, but we can safely ignore.
Thanks for the response's Intel & Mal.

If we work on percentages of the overall market. We as retail traders are price takers (2% -5%) whereas the real SM (not large speculators) control at least 70% (conservative from the common 90% which we are led to believe).

Algo trading is not a fraction of retail traders yet a dynamic of SM. I've read that algo trading can constitute a note-worthy amount of the overall FX volume..
  • #7,802
  • Dec 8, 2010 7:45pm Dec 8, 2010 7:45pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Intel

more and more there is proof of algo trading . not hft but steady buying or selling and market symmetry

check gold yesterday ... how can a bunch of humans move it eaxctl 10 down 5 up , 10 down 5 up 10 down 5 up 10 down 5 up ? exact symmetry x 4 . It was being sold by a computer algo i swear . Aslo note eu always moves 60 then 30 60 then 30 ... always. You can count on it. Again not done by pure human traders

ES last week did not even have a tick down for 2 days. Not traded by humans that day either
So Mal, It's evident that there's influence.

Can it be read with VSA? The more impact algo trading has - I would assume that we would be losing more and more control of reading the charts?!
  • #7,803
  • Edited 8:17pm Dec 8, 2010 7:53pm | Edited 8:17pm
Quoting Sonny1
So Mal, It's evident that there's influence.

Can it be read with VSA? The more impact algo trading has - I would assume that we would be losing more and more control of reading the charts?!
ever seen "floored"?the guys on the chicago mercantile excange all used to make good money until the machines came,for the floor guys its hard to adapt to technical analysis and the computers are zipping the prices heavily,

http://geektyrant.com/storage/post-i...=1265947838693

http://www.babelgum.com/floored
  • #7,804
  • Dec 8, 2010 8:00pm Dec 8, 2010 8:00pm
Quoting Intel
You are an experienced trader so I say this with dignity. Ther are pretty much no indicators that can take the place of vsa knowledge. If you find yourself lacking in knolwedge of a particular area of VSA (and you could do with an indi to help you out a bit), go back to school and learn more about it. It is the hard way but, by far the best way.
I completely agree - was just being lazy and supportive of what looked like selling off the top there. That ES chart I posted just stares at me all day & night to give me the market sentiment, and I'd noticed the indi buys & sells tend to be very good - I'd dragged the indi to spot fx & futures and it fails miserably. I am also looking for a Canadian avenue for trading ES, as spot just ain't what it used to be and ES seems more logical. Am looking at Questrade now - they interestingly have esignal software for fx.
  • #7,805
  • Dec 8, 2010 9:44pm Dec 8, 2010 9:44pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Intel

more and more there is proof of algo trading . not hft but steady buying or selling and market symmetry

check gold yesterday ... how can a bunch of humans move it eaxctl 10 down 5 up , 10 down 5 up 10 down 5 up 10 down 5 up ? exact symmetry x 4 . It was being sold by a computer algo i swear . Aslo note eu always moves 60 then 30 60 then 30 ... always. You can count on it. Again not done by pure human traders

ES last week did not even have a tick down for 2 days. Not traded by humans that day either
Even with Algo trading, it is based on human programming, and the human behaviour is reflected into the logic.

That Algo trading basically will impact volume. And can still use VSA.
  • #7,806
  • Dec 8, 2010 10:17pm Dec 8, 2010 10:17pm
Quoting CollectPIPS
Thank you.

<In order for prices to rise supply has to be removed...> this part I understand. No problem.

What I don't understand is that to entice supply/sellers to come out to sell, I thought we wld normally make price higher, not lower. But what I read was "A test of supply occurs when the price is marked down..." This I don't understand.

Thx.
Visualise this.

If you push something(price, spring) down, the Expectation is that something would go even Lower and Many people would follow(volume).
This is a reason for price to be marked down, and not marked up.
See it as fear/panic.

But at the moment you are uncertain what will happen if you push down the something.
So SM conduct an experiment called Test to see the results of other SM and Herd.
Then once the price is push down, this is the action of the Test.
Now observe what will happen to the results of this Test.

The Result (A) is when the price is push down, if the immediate price did continue to go lower, likely there are still More Sellers, so price may go lower even more.

The Result (B) is when the price is push down, if the immediate price did Not continue to go lower, no one wants to follow this action(Volume lower), and then an immediate result show the price actually go up.
Now showing Less Sellers.
That something has spring back up.
This Test is telling us that more likely the price will continue up.

This is like Reverse Psychology.
Must think in reverse to understand.
  • #7,807
  • Dec 8, 2010 11:44pm Dec 8, 2010 11:44pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...l-worries.html
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #7,808
  • Dec 9, 2010 12:46am Dec 9, 2010 12:46am
Thank you. Begin to understand better.

Quoting foxybunny
Visualise this.

If you push something(price, spring) down, the Expectation is that something would go even Lower and Many people would follow(volume).
This is a reason for price to be marked down, and not marked up.
See it as fear/panic.

But at the moment you are uncertain what will happen if you push down the something.
So SM conduct an experiment called Test to see the results of other SM and Herd.
Then once the price is push down, this is the action of the Test.
Now observe what will happen to the results of this Test.

The Result...
  • #7,809
  • Dec 9, 2010 12:49am Dec 9, 2010 12:49am
What about you traders?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...ncy-trade.html
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #7,810
  • Dec 9, 2010 1:14am Dec 9, 2010 1:14am
Quoting malcolmb14
seeing same weakness

In fact i also had no deman day before ut

BUT es can remian irrational longer than then your acocunt can avoid margin call ...lol.....happened before to DR geppy .. not margin call but weakness was all over place and market went another 50 points plus
Good Morning Malcomb14 -

What do you see in the making for ES this morning? It appears we have not done a test of 1235. Volume also seems strangely low to me. I have only been learning currency trades in the last few months of trading so I will be just watching and learning ES trades for now.

Please share your thoughts..

Sincerely,

Moe.
  • #7,811
  • Dec 9, 2010 1:46am Dec 9, 2010 1:46am
Quoting Intel
Further to this, if a computer could manipulate the market that accurately (10 up, 5 down, 10 up etc), we the retail trader, would be on an even keel with them. There is no question about this because some of the best computer programmers on the planet are university students. They would certainly be able to reproduce any program that SM could produce, and act against SM.
Reproducing any programming would require a lot of knowledge about that particular algorithm and those that programmed it would be sued to death if they leaked anything. Anyway, we should be glad there's a price pattern because it makes trading easier!

Also, EU moving during asia! Damn it! I guess that all day was accumulation? Also daily looking good for longs.
  • #7,812
  • Dec 9, 2010 2:00am Dec 9, 2010 2:00am
GU H1, approaching recent high around 1.5840 - 1.5850, during Asian session with decreasing volume.

As in Asian, normally low volume.

Waiting to see if London or USA give a possible Short.

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  • #7,813
  • Dec 9, 2010 2:12am Dec 9, 2010 2:12am
AU H1, prices quickly marked up higher during Asian session, approaching a recent high around 0.9900 to 0.9930.

Volume extremely low as prices marked up. Again could be due to quiet Asian session.

Recent 6-7 bars on H1 were doji and small bars showing indecision.

Waiting for London or USA to give an opportunity to Short.



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  • #7,814
  • Dec 9, 2010 3:26am Dec 9, 2010 3:26am
Quoting CollectPIPS
Thank you.

<In order for prices to rise supply has to be removed...> this part I understand. No problem.

What I don't understand is that to entice supply/sellers to come out to sell, I thought we wld normally make price higher, not lower. But what I read was "A test of supply occurs when the price is marked down..." This I don't understand.

Thx.

prices are marked down if there are any sellers they will jump aboard and prices will continue to fall on increased volume. if there are no sellers left prices will drift back up to opening price on LOW volume this is a successful test and a strong indication of higher prices.
  • #7,815
  • Dec 9, 2010 4:57am Dec 9, 2010 4:57am
Quoting CollectPIPS
Thank you.

<In order for prices to rise supply has to be removed...> this part I understand. No problem.

What I don't understand is that to entice supply/sellers to come out to sell, I thought we wld normally make price higher, not lower. But what I read was "A test of supply occurs when the price is marked down..." This I don't understand.

Thx.
Higher prices are to encourage buying from the heard, it`s into this buying that the professionals will sell...low or falling prices will encourage the heard to sell, it`s into this selling that professionals will start to buy, accumilation, the only way to tell if sellers are still there is a test, if sellers are still there they will have to be absorbed before higher prices are possible.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #7,816
  • Dec 9, 2010 9:33am Dec 9, 2010 9:33am
EU M30

Possible turning point, looks like they take stops out.
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  • #7,817
  • Dec 9, 2010 12:33pm Dec 9, 2010 12:33pm
I would think that algo trading produces VOLUME, or at the very least results in price changes-ticks. Either way VSA should be able to analyze it.

Trading can be as complex or as simple as you want it to be. It is better,however, to error on the side of simplicity. Well, that's what some guy named Occam said.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #7,818
  • Dec 9, 2010 12:39pm Dec 9, 2010 12:39pm
Quoting HiddenGap
I would think that algo trading produces VOLUME, or at the very least results in price changes-ticks. Either way VSA should be able to analyze it.

Trading can be as complex or as simple as you want it to be. It is better,however, to error on the side of simplicity. Well, that's what some guy named Occam said.

Good to see you HG.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #7,819
  • Dec 9, 2010 1:59pm Dec 9, 2010 1:59pm
Quoting HiddenGap
I would think that algo trading produces VOLUME, or at the very least results in price changes-ticks. Either way VSA should be able to analyze it.

Trading can be as complex or as simple as you want it to be. It is better,however, to error on the side of simplicity. Well, that's what some guy named Occam said.
LOL nice.

Good to see you back old friend.
  • #7,820
  • Dec 9, 2010 2:02pm Dec 9, 2010 2:02pm
Good to see you again HiddenGap.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
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