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  • #11,421
  • Edited 6:50am Dec 7, 2010 6:29am | Edited 6:50am
Chris, hi.
Would you be so kind to answer some of my questions about chart below (as example)?
1. As the beginner, i have to wait when price come to one of these areas (A or B), and then see if it makes any action there, right?
2. If price will come to area A and will not make any interesting action (to direction to area B)... then where might be the next area - at 138-140?
3. If price will make something in the red box (but at the long direction) what would you do?

It all seems simple enough, but I just can't believe it IS so simple and all i have to do is wait for price action! I understand that, but i can't believe my mind... Well I hope that communication with you will go in my favor. Thanks for previous answer.

P.S. By the way... Are these A and B areas that called major and is line C that called minor? (oops, i didn't marked it... line C is between A and B)
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  • #11,422
  • Dec 7, 2010 7:36am Dec 7, 2010 7:36am
Quoting Murzilka
Chris, hi.
Would you be so kind to answer some of my questions about chart below (as example)?
1. As the beginner, i have to wait when price come to one of these areas (A or B), and then see if it makes any action there, right?
2. If price will come to area A and will not make any interesting action (to direction to area B)... then where might be the next area - at 138-140?
3. If price will make something in the red box (but at the long direction) what would you do?

It all seems simple enough, but I just can't believe it IS so simple and all...
Sure thing. Let me try to help here...

For question number 1.....

It is very important that you wait until price comes to those areas. I have found that it will increase the odds of the trade going in your favor by quite a bit.

For question number 2.....

On this particular chart, it look likes anywhere within the body of that pinbar made in August would probably do. What I mean by that is that the pinbar represents the entire thick "zone" where price could point the way towards taking a trade. This is pretty common on the higher time frames.

For question number 3.....

Taking a long position there would be more of a break out play. I t would also be against the longer term trend. I would do the following:

Let it break through the red area, pull back and find support. It could show a pinbar to go long once it pulled back - and then I would be interested. A nice bullish outside bar would be go too......But I would not enter on the original break out, as they can often be false break outs.

I would also enter a smaller position that if it were with the trend. Maybe half. This is something I have been doing recently, and am finding that it works out quite well. It keeps the losses small, which is necessary because the odds of a counter-trend play going for profit are lower.

Also, with a counter-trend position, I prefer to set an exit target. I am not as likely to "let it ride" like on a position going with the trend.

As for question 4.....

Yes, I would consider the "C" line to be minor. Good chart.

Chris
  • #11,423
  • Dec 7, 2010 1:46pm Dec 7, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting clockwork71
Oh yeah....here is OJ Simpson at the time.....lol. I read an article with Dahlin that it took him a week to understand what in the hell people were saying to him - he had never heard of "The Juice".
Yep, remember that face. It was the first televised trial in Sweden!

I used to check the TV in the morning before school to see what they had been up to. Talk about getting away with murder huh... still remember how they stupidly allowed OJ to put on his theater act with the "this glove don't fit" act
  • #11,424
  • Dec 7, 2010 10:38pm Dec 7, 2010 10:38pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Yep, remember that face. It was the first televised trial in Sweden!

I used to check the TV in the morning before school to see what they had been up to. Talk about getting away with murder huh... still remember how they stupidly allowed OJ to put on his theater act with the "this glove don't fit" act
He is in prison now anyway. He barged into someone's hotel room with a gun because the guy was selling some of his old jerseys or something. Got several years for it if I remember.

It's a shame really, he was great in all the Naked Gun movies. lol
  • #11,425
  • Dec 7, 2010 10:41pm Dec 7, 2010 10:41pm
This entry was taken after the fact. What I mean by that is I saw the BUOB get broken to the upside, and had pulled back, so I entered. I figure if we meltdown past the parity level - something has changed.

Here is the daily look at USD/CAD
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  • #11,426
  • Dec 7, 2010 10:44pm Dec 7, 2010 10:44pm
And yes, I am still in it: (However, there is an obvious cluster right at the .80 handle that is going to take something special to break through.)
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  • #11,427
  • Dec 8, 2010 2:40am Dec 8, 2010 2:40am
continuation of the mini-DJIA. A few days ago founded Pin Bar.
On gold bearish outside bar.
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  • #11,428
  • Dec 8, 2010 11:14am Dec 8, 2010 11:14am
Take a look at this hot mess waiting to blow up:
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  • #11,429
  • Dec 8, 2010 7:32pm Dec 8, 2010 7:32pm
Quoting clockwork71
This entry was taken after the fact. What I mean by that is I saw the BUOB get broken to the upside, and had pulled back, so I entered. I figure if we meltdown past the parity level - something has changed.

Here is the daily look at USD/CAD
Hi Chris
Thanks for sharing this. I have two questions,

1. Am I doing okay with drawing SR lines ( see attached)? I hope I am improving.

2. I have downward sloping resistance line where you have bullish bar. No room to run. Should that matter for a buy there ( long term should still be okay I guess)?

Appreciate your comments.


cheers
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  • #11,430
  • Dec 9, 2010 7:09am Dec 9, 2010 7:09am
Quoting Imphilomath
Hi Chris
Thanks for sharing this. I have two questions,

1. Am I doing okay with drawing SR lines ( see attached)? I hope I am improving.

2. I have downward sloping resistance line where you have bullish bar. No room to run. Should that matter for a buy there ( long term should still be okay I guess)?

Appreciate your comments.


cheers
Imphilomath,

I agree with the lines, only that two of them are probably more minor than the rest. Price will react to them, but in the long run they may not matter as much.

Please see attached chart for comments:
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  • #11,431
  • Dec 9, 2010 8:58am Dec 9, 2010 8:58am
Short term EURGBP long. ~1:1 RR target. Too bad I missed it.
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The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #11,432
  • Dec 9, 2010 9:00am Dec 9, 2010 9:00am
Gang,

We are entering the low volume stretch of trading that surrounds the Christmas holiday. In fact, I would say this week might be it until 2011 for those of you that are diligent about your trading.

I will still be posting here, but most of the stuff after the 15th until about the 5th or so will focus more on theory than live trades, unless of course there is some massive news around the holidays that push the markets in a particular direction.

I am not closing out my long term positions. EUR/GBP will still be in play, as is USD/JPY. (Although my Yen trade is doing absolutely nothing in general.)

The EUR/GBP trade in particular, is going to be on for a long time I hope. In fact, it could even run all the way through 2011, you never know.

Chris
  • #11,433
  • Dec 9, 2010 10:58am Dec 9, 2010 10:58am
Quoting clockwork71
Gang,

We are entering the low volume stretch of trading that surrounds the Christmas holiday. In fact, I would say this week might be it until 2011 for those of you that are diligent about your trading.

I will still be posting here, but most of the stuff after the 15th until about the 5th or so will focus more on theory than live trades, unless of course there is some massive news around the holidays that push the markets in a particular direction.

I am not closing out my long term positions. EUR/GBP will still be in play, as is...
Gotta enjoy that low interest rate environment
  • #11,434
  • Dec 9, 2010 11:45am Dec 9, 2010 11:45am
Quoting clockwork71
Imphilomath,

I agree with the lines, only that two of them are probably more minor than the rest. Price will react to them, but in the long run they may not matter as much.

Please see attached chart for comments:
Thanks Chris. I had not realized that closing of candle invalidate the SR/TL. I considered that as a 2 day pin closing inside the TL. I think I should start looking for daily candle closes more closely. Thanks for the comment. Learning something new everyday :-)

cheers
  • #11,435
  • Dec 9, 2010 11:11pm Dec 9, 2010 11:11pm
Quoting Imphilomath
Thanks Chris. I had not realized that closing of candle invalidate the SR/TL. I considered that as a 2 day pin closing inside the TL. I think I should start looking for daily candle closes more closely. Thanks for the comment. Learning something new everyday :-)

cheers
You are correct in the thinking that it's a two day pinbar.....but as a general rule, I don't think of them as such when it's a trend line. I prefer to see that at a flat S/R line. A small distinction......but one I have found seems to save me a bit of grief!

Chris
  • #11,436
  • Edited Dec 10, 2010 1:41am Dec 9, 2010 11:16pm | Edited Dec 10, 2010 1:41am
This chart is something that stood out to me today. It's a daily USD/CHF chart that shows a potential bearish flag forming. The "pole" is roughly 1100 pips. What I find odd is that if this thing breaks, the EUR/USD should take off as well. I really would be leery of buying the Euro.

I am not so unsure about buying the Franc however. It would be an odd move, but one that would be worth paying attention to. I am going to be watching this chart very closely. If the USD falls against the Franc as hard as a break of this flag would suggest, it would show that most of the market is on the wrong side of the trade, which of course means a massive and violent move to come.

To quote old Bill Shakespeare: "Something is rotten in the state of Denmark......"

Chris
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  • #11,437
  • Dec 9, 2010 11:25pm Dec 9, 2010 11:25pm
Quoting clockwork71
This chart is something that stood out to me today. It's a daily USD/CHF chart that shows a potential bearish flag forming. The "pole" is roughly 1100 pips. What I find odd is that if this thing breaks, the EUR/USD should take off as well. I really would be leery of buying the Euro.

I am not so unsure about buying the Franc however. It would be an odd move, but one that would be worth paying attention to. I am going to be watching this chart very closely. If the USD falls against the Franc as hard as a break of this flag would suggest, it would...
Chris,

Not sure I can see a flag(always did have trouble seeing shapes LoL) but I am bearish this pair and also would have a problem buying the Euro.
  • #11,438
  • Dec 9, 2010 11:48pm Dec 9, 2010 11:48pm
Quoting clockwork71
This chart is something that stood out to me today. It's a daily USD/CHF chart that shows a potential bearish flag forming. The "pole" is roughly 1100 pips. What I find odd is that if this thing breaks, the EUR/USD should take off as well. I really would be leery of buying the Euro.

I am not so unsure about buying the Franc however. It would be an odd move, but one that would be worth paying attention to. I am going to be watching this chart very closely. If the USD falls against the Franc as hard as a break of this flag would suggest, it would...
May be pointing to a coming breakdown of the risk on/off trade correlations too.

Given the swiss are sitting on so much gold (allegedly), a major event in europe may also cause a sharp rise in the chf.

We have talked before about the number of outstanding underwater CHF denominated loans across europe (eastern europe). If these unravel there will need to be a strong wave of chf buying done by swiss banks that could support such a move without pronounced eur strengthening.
  • #11,439
  • Dec 9, 2010 11:53pm Dec 9, 2010 11:53pm
Bit primitive I'm afraid and I don't do shapes but this is may attempt at a flag.....

Is this what you mean Chris?

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  • #11,440
  • Dec 10, 2010 1:41am Dec 10, 2010 1:41am
Quoting stewrigh
Bit primitive I'm afraid and I don't do shapes but this is may attempt at a flag.....

Is this what you mean Chris?

Attachment
Yes it is. LOL. I forgot to attach the chart. That post is corrected.
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