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Ok, Lets do it - Developing a Highly Profitable System

  • #61
  • Dec 7, 2010 11:45pm Dec 7, 2010 11:45pm
Quoting newyear498
I have an idea which I'm not really sure if I like or not so let me hear your thoughts


how about whatever currency we are trading we use another pair that usually moves in sync.. if they both are giving the signals we use it for higher probabilities that we have a good signal
I think that will do more harm than good. If the correlation is high between 2 pairs, then like abelfxtrader said, both will most likely give you false signals and it won't be a reliable filter.

I also think we might miss out on some good trades. If a good opportunity arrives in one pair, and according to our system it gives a signal to enter, then why do we have to wait for confirmation on another pair.

The only alternative I can think of, is to enter on both pairs, with half the lot size you would have entered on one pair. At least then you are risking more or less the same.
  • #62
  • Dec 8, 2010 12:20am Dec 8, 2010 12:20am
warning : i'm a naysayer so ignore the rest if you don't want to read it...

this is a lot like watching kids make a cubby house out of blankets or something. everyone has an idea, but no one has a clue. and at the end of the day nothing new or worthwhile will come of this and it's all a lot of back and forth of the same old nothing.

i've got an idea. let's all make a doctors office and we can all be medical professionals. so, who has any idea where to start? i think we should first get some stethoscopes and some pens and paper. oh, and we shouldn't open on sundays because that's when i plan to play golf and drink expensive wine. anyone else want to contribute?

:S
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #63
  • Dec 8, 2010 1:09am Dec 8, 2010 1:09am
Actually that's just a loophole in the Dodd Frank bill to get people back too 100:1 leverage.

Quoting iulli
Actually I am not even convince there are really winners in this "game". Right now, I am writing this and I see advertising on the left side 100% trading credit on all deposits from Alpari... That doesn't sound right to me... I feel like this is a trap... this advertisements reminds me of the on line gambling, they will give you money just to make a deposit and hook you on their system... Why would they offer money to you so you can trade forex? Everybody is in this business to make money.... How can they make money if they give it away? Unless,...
  • #64
  • Dec 8, 2010 1:26am Dec 8, 2010 1:26am
Quoting iulli
what leads to a highly profitable trade?
Let's start with the beginning.
If you enter random in a trade your chances are 50/50.

Find me something that tells me I have chances 55 % of wining and we can build on that. Is it the trend that gives me advantage? Is it counter trend? Is it any candles formations, maybe the news? Just give me anything that gives m,e more than 50% wining chances, and you can start developing a system based on that. It doesn't have to happen every day... I will be happy to place only one or two trades a week, that...
M1 RSI period 14, put lines where price turns, crunch the data god damnit, its right in front of you!
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #65
  • Dec 8, 2010 1:28am Dec 8, 2010 1:28am
Quoting iulli
Actually I am not even convince there are really winners in this "game". Right now, I am writing this and I see advertising on the left side 100% trading credit on all deposits from Alpari...
It IS a trap, that doesnt mean there are no winners. Big winner are federal reserve and a couple of other people. Small winners are people who work hard and crunch the friggin data, not lie on the stomach in the sun.
My signature is: "Classified".
  • #66
  • Dec 8, 2010 8:06am Dec 8, 2010 8:06am
Quoting nubcake
warning : i'm a naysayer so ignore the rest if you don't want to read it...

this is a lot like watching kids make a cubby house out of blankets or something....
I don't want to start an argument here, but I think it's the end of the road for you on this thread nubcake. We have moved on to Phase 1 and you have chosen not to contribute to this thread in a positive way, so why are you posting here. Go waste your energy somewhere else.
Enough said!
  • #67
  • Dec 8, 2010 8:19am Dec 8, 2010 8:19am
Quoting nubcake
warning : i'm a naysayer so ignore the rest if you don't want to read it...

this is a lot like watching kids make a cubby house out of blankets or something....
I would not want to show up for the big surgery and have no pain medicine or tools waiting for me and the doctors to be winging the surgery because they didn't come up with a plan

If doctors didn't have a general plan for gun shot wounds and such a lot of people would be dead right now

Your argument is one built on over exaggeration.. but even I wouldnt want to go to an office who hasent planned there office hours so i'd never know when there open

anyways you clearly cannot read direction or decided not to follow the directions of negative posts will be banned. and if you cant follow directions you are clearly not a successful trader who can follow the directions of there planned trading methods

I mentioned several times you will be banned and I can't fool around anymore its nothing personal just the plan from post 1


Ok, moving forward
  • #68
  • Dec 8, 2010 8:23am Dec 8, 2010 8:23am
Ok, sound like you guys are right having a pair might be counter productive.. I had some doubts initially as originally mentioned and you guys definitely addressed my doubts



@yaed, If you would like to elaborate a bit more I would be happy to hear not only your method but the logic behind why it works

so far you have kinda just hinted around

Thanks

and everyone keep the ideas coming.. I assure you we are not wasting our time here.. its a little elementary in some aspects but we need to start small otherwise everyone would be throwing out entry and exit rules based on nothing hah...

  • #69
  • Dec 8, 2010 3:36pm Dec 8, 2010 3:36pm
Do you feel there should be a certain level of mechanical trading implemented into this to avoid emotional trading and other psychological factors

I'm thinking the fundamental overlook and finding the best pairs will be very good for getting odds on our side and then having the actual entry and exit criteria will keep us trading with those odds


I also think a good thing for the system will be having a daily or weekly routine were you go over and double check your pairs to see if everything is still in line..

I'm also having some concerns about news.. alot I see traders recommend not trading during news.. but I'm thinking if the fundamentals for our pairs is looking good it might be best to stay in for news or even trade based on news.. any thoughts?

and more suggestions for what we should look for in fundamentals is welcome.. I feel like funamentals get overlooked in way to many systems.. but the truth is fundies are something the banks and big players are watching more than anything else.. so many FF systems trying to collab indicators for a perfect super indicator collab
  • #70
  • Dec 8, 2010 9:12pm Dec 8, 2010 9:12pm
Quoting nubcake
this is a lot like watching kids make a cubby house out of blankets or something.
I'm going in with 50% of my account, with SL on this thread producing a profitable system, and TP on the opposite.

These threads are nice in concept but they don't work.

Ok, let's say you somehow manage to build this highly profitable system with positive expectation. This is a public forum, word will spread quickly and everybody will start using this system which will result in the system stopping to work, and all your efforts would have been wasted. If you're a system trader, publishing a profitable trading algorithm would be a stupid idea, that's why you need to work privately.

If you're a discretionary trader, then trading is a personal thing, you can't make somebody a good discretionary trader, only they can. If you wanna build something, work alone on your own trading and don't listen to what the majority believes. After all, you wanna step as far away from that 95% (which ARE the majority) as possible.

Forums are a good place for discussion, ideas, and advice, but they're a bad place for learning to trade, building systems, etc.

Just my opinion.
  • #71
  • Dec 8, 2010 9:23pm Dec 8, 2010 9:23pm
Quoting Marv
I'm going in with 50% of my account, with SL on this thread producing a profitable system, and TP on the opposite.

These threads are nice in concept but they don't work.

Ok, let's say you somehow manage to build this highly profitable system with positive expectation. This is a public forum, word will spread quickly and everybody will start using this system which will result in the system stopping to work, and all your efforts would have been wasted. If you're a system trader, publishing a profitable trading algorithm would be...
Marv, I respect your view and I used to think I needed a secret system as well.. but don't think this forum will ever attract over 1% of the traders in the forex market.. and its a trillion dollar market which is very hard to be manipulated.. the concept of secret systems is the dumbest idea ever.. in theory if more people trade a system theres only more volume and you will profit easier.. the central banks are never going to go "oh that newyear guy is making money we need to screw his system over since 1% of the traders know about it"

It doesnt matter if you think this system will fail.. actually most systems on FF are fails.. but I havent seen any threads creating systems so I decided to give it a shot since I figure most people can't organize a group... its about putting forth some effort and positive contribution as negative ones are the only thing that can fail this thread...

anyways please be careful what you post here as I'll have to ban you if it gets too negative since I made that commitment

(and my final thought is even if what you said was true and the system was compromised I would have a deep understanding of the system and would secretly adapt to take advantage of the compromised system.. hehe )

Thank you!
  • #72
  • Dec 8, 2010 9:53pm Dec 8, 2010 9:53pm
I don't think you should ban anybody easilly. SOme people are just saying their honest opinion and that is constructive, I think.

I also think even if it is a public forum, and lets's say this thread will come up with a system that is positive, the system might be tested and retested and it will be improved in time.

There are couples systems with positive expectancy here on public forums, but still not to many people follows them, it takes lots of dedication, time and self control...
  • #73
  • Dec 8, 2010 10:11pm Dec 8, 2010 10:11pm
It is very hard to find out if the market will go up or down. How about volatility? I know a very good system when the volatility is high... also a very good system when volatility is low....

There is one guy here Ronald I think his nameis, and I like his aproach. First step decide what the market is doing and what is about to do like ranging, trending,volatility high, low etc. I think this is the hardest part. Then just apply the right system to what you found out. Sounds easy and smart. So actually his wining system is made of more losing systems (if you use each one separately). I hope I am making sense.
  • #74
  • Dec 8, 2010 11:19pm Dec 8, 2010 11:19pm
Quoting iulli
It is very hard to find out if the market will go up or down. How about volatility?...
Observing content of this thread, let me offer another option which, IMO, would yield faster and more reliable results: have the readers of this thread comb FF, TSD, and many other worldwide threads for profitable systems? As Ron Raygun has attested many times, there are numerous profitable EA's here in the archives of FF. Go find them, catalog them, re-test them, find the holes in them, and fix the holes! Whu re-invent the wheel???

Atlas1
  • #75
  • Dec 9, 2010 6:03am Dec 9, 2010 6:03am
My opinion on fundamentals.

I trade the higher TF's. I look at the longer term view, (A few days or even a week or two) so any news event doesn't affect my trade plan. This way I don't have to worry about the news everyday. I just recap what happened at the end of the trading day and act accordingly. This eliminates emotional trading.

You have to keep track though of what is happening fundamentally, because it most probably creates momentum indirectly. For example, last month the Fed announced QE2, which on the day of the release did nothing to the price, since it was already priced in. The dollar was depreciating way before the release because everyone was expecting it to happen.

So my point is, know what is happening, see how it reflects in your charts, don't believe everything in the media and don't let it affect your decisions, (don't get biased of what some economist said) and just try to follow the price.
  • #76
  • Dec 9, 2010 9:13am Dec 9, 2010 9:13am
First off, I don't want to keep going over banning but just understand I am trying to avoid pages of "no this thread is dumb" and someone else chiming in "no this thread is the best your stupid" etc.. if someone thinks this thread is pointless then they need not be posting here since I already decided to move foreward with the thread... would a surgeon want someone in the ER going "this operation is never going to work.. pointless... hes going to die anyways just give up..." lol thats the kind of stuff I will only bann ok.. get my point

Ok, so..
I enjoy what you said about volatility and knowing which system to use.. that is very important information.. and that lets me know in order for this system to work we will need to really outline the ideal situation when it can be implemented.. thank you for this

reinvent wheels.. not my goal to re invent.. your idea is great about checking EA's etc.. actually I would recommend a thread for that purpose its a great idea.. this system in this thread will not be something totally new I bet.. but maybe

and yeah I find following everything you hear usually ends up bad hah so good thing to note thank you

but yes from what I see in this thread smart money and momentum go hand in hand.. so it might be smarter to focus on smart money and the momentum will come naturally and not need a momentum indicator for the most part I would suspect if we can keep track of smart money.. just some more ideas
  • #77
  • Dec 9, 2010 9:38am Dec 9, 2010 9:38am
Ok.. for this system it is going to be very important for us to find a japanese person..

I have determine through hours of meditation that they know the markets better than anyone else.. candlesticks, HA, renko

and if anyone find a japanese farmer even better..

  • #78
  • Dec 9, 2010 9:49am Dec 9, 2010 9:49am
Quote
but yes from what I see in this thread smart money and momentum go hand in hand.. so it might be smarter to focus on smart money and the momentum will come naturally and not need a momentum indicator for the most part I would suspect if we can keep track of smart money.. just some more ideas

I agree! Smart money create the momentum. IMO the easiest way to spot the direction and follow with the momentum is by determining the current trend. I'm interested to see what else we can use to determine momentum or when it's fading.
  • #79
  • Dec 11, 2010 11:02am Dec 11, 2010 11:02am
theres been some discussion about the topic.. but I want to look into it further

Do you think its fair to trade just trends or just ranges or should we not eliminate the possibility of trading both

I'll recite something that I don't expect to start a debate since i'm just reciting things I have read from "professionals" and I personally don't agree with some of these myself..

but apparently there are more traders who are profitable during ranging markets than trend traders.. mainly because trend traders attempt to trend when the market is ranging which is the case 75% of the time..

But now the real question I dare propose.. when we talk about smart money and following it...

so how do we factor in smart money vs trends and ranging.. focus on ranges or trends.. or can you be following the smart money in both situations.. if the market is ranging 75% of the time and the smart money controls the market then should we focus on ranges (what the smart money is doing 75% of the time) does it make since to follow trends that the smart money only creates 25% of the time..

does simply having a ranging strategy put us in a position to be trading a strategy that is well suited 75% of the time.

So there are some thoughts I would like to see your answers to.. in the mean time keep your other ideas coming!



PS: I am also very interested in any statistics anyone would like to offer about how often the market is ranging, trending.. closing higher after x amount of days and such.. getting the odds on our side is great so statistics away and we can dig deeper into why the statistics make since/exist in relation to smart money and such. If there is a solid theory and statistics we should consider using.
  • #80
  • Dec 11, 2010 11:19am Dec 11, 2010 11:19am
How will you know what the smart money is doing?

The like to keep these things to themselves. They even create diversions: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exc...t-manipulation (slow loading today)
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