XAU/USD & XAG/USD - Gold & Silver Traders Thread

learning a lot about gold more than chart side , thanks . Hope will know more ind & outs in future . good job.
fontu

That's great! Thanks, glad to know you enjoy my posts. Please feel free to ask. I focus on the fundamentals of Gold usually first and the chart second.

Since we are in raging bull, I focus on longs more than shorts due to the longer and more profitable the trades.

I will short if I don't miss the opportunity, yet do not focus on it due to the aspects of counter trend trading.

It is preferable to look for setups for $100 to $300, rather than a quick $60 retracement, everyone is different though and I respect that.

HI LILPIP,if e/u go above 1.33 what do you think is target my mean TP?

given what is also said by jimobiwan, its seems that Gold maybe is heading towards a bubble...as I think its price increase by way more then the increase in the actual demand for Gold...do you think that increase in the price is backed up by the actual demand to Gold or much like HSBC its more speculation as listed above?

I was reading a Brazilian forum and found this (dated from 2007):

"Gold price may reach US$ 820 until 2010, Citigroup says"



It may be a bubble. I mean, we have to be realistic and consider all possibilities. But when I think about QE2, the USD "Ponzi scheme" theory, JP Morgan manipulation, the gold demand in China and other things, it seems to me that the price is still ok and has room to go up a lot.

I don't want to join any party. We just have to play the game, that's it. Be prepared for a gold bubble and be prepared for a USD crash.

Well put.

Yet a reason would be nice if they would elaborate! I have looked at all these levels. The bottom line here is and what everyone who is involved in GOLD needs to get, is Gold is not going down until the WORLD recovers from the financial DISASTERS, literally present in ALL MAJOR global economies.

Even then, it likely won't break far below 1050 which at current affords the long term bulls a 400$ USD correction before the major underlying trend is threatened. Then it simply becomes another buying opportunity.

Secondly, people have been scorned, burnt, cheated, lied to, bankrupt, lost homes, become homeless, lost jobs, savings, entire retirement fund, going back to work at 65. So you can bet your a$$ that even when Wall Street and the banksters rear their ugly heads, the common folk who's money they ultimately DO NEED, are not just going to line up like lambs for the next slaughtering. Yes, the sheeple are getting wiser.

However, the vast majority of people are not traders, don't know what "FX" let alone retail "FX" is nor do they know it is even possible to have Gold

What's going on, on the chart is beginning to look like a cup and handle pattern.

I have posted these chart patterns in the thread before. I find on longer term charts all patterns carry far more validity on higher TF charts IE: H4 / Daily / Maybe weekly but things can be a bit hard to determine here.

Many of the writings about the patterns where initially written from following stocks. The fact of the matter is that stocks trade differently than currencies even in just looking at the sheer amount of open interest.

ie: Where is there more open interest Globally Apple or the EURO.....

So what I find is the patterns work, but do to the large turnover in money in and out daily, what may take a few months for a trending stock may happen in a few weeks for a currency.

Anyway use your discretion. There are no guarantees.

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The best description I have with image to go with below.

THE CUP AND HANDLE-
"A cup-and-handle pattern resembles the shape of a tea cup on a chart. This is a bullish continuation pattern where the upward trend has paused, and traded down, but will continue in an upward direction upon the completion of the pattern. This pattern can range from several months to a year, but its general form remains the same.

The cup-and-handle pattern is preceded by an upward move, which stalls and sells off. The sell-off is what forms the initial part of this pattern. After the sell-off, the security will basically trade flat for an extended period of time, with no clear trend. The next part of the pattern is the upward move back towards the peak of the preceding upward move. The last part of the pattern, known as the handle, is a relatively smaller downward move before the security moves higher and continues the previous trend.

Components of the Cup and Handle
There are several components of the cup and handle that should be noted in order to evaluate the potential trading signal. First, it's important that there is an upward trend before the formation of the cup and handle. In general, the larger the prior trend is, the lower the potential for a large breakout after the pattern has been completed. The reason being that a lot of the run-up in the security happened prior to the formation of the cup, again weakening the size of the potential upward move. "
http://www.investopedia.com/universi...ts/charts3.asp

Chart
http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articl...and_Handle.gif

Now here is the current gold chart with projection and support

WILL ADD SOON SO REFRESH

First Chart is a hypothetical forecast chart.
Second is Movement with supports

PLEASE NOTE: This is only my Gold analysis based on patterns I have successfully traded in the past. I have tried to give multiple terms that may render the potential setup invalid. Trade at your own discretion and always risk what is appropriate for your account. Remember you are a runner in a race, the race is a marathon, NOT a sprint, You need to keep running so you need water, water= money.

I am working on the Gold chart.

The left side of the C&H formation looks good. There are a few things I am waiting for further determination.

They are:

1. The repeating pattern on the chart of Record high, then correction.
___the structure is not the same as a true C& H.

2. If we are forming base now or "BOTTOM of Cup" Picking bottoms is bad.
__THe setup looks GREAT so far on the Four Hour (H4) chart.

Moving sideways, no real trend, there is a possibility of a dip back down to test 1375 to make sure the price is ready to move up.


I would say on a sustained hold below 1350 which is unlikely ATM the C&H will be rendered invalid.

3. If the chart continues to repeat the current structure and explodes upwards the C&H is invalid. Technically speaking we want range for perhaps another 12 hours.

4. I welcome a test of 1375 to add. even a test of 1398 is able and we are still valid..
Lets see how it goes.

Chart soon

chARTS ADDED

HERE
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2471

http://dailyreckoning.com/investors-...-get-physical/

thanks for helping to keep us up to speed, keep em coming, that was my evening post.

1394.62 area noted yesterday although missed the bus.
friday
3050
2914
2778

1426.11
1396.28
1366.45

e/u may help us with direction
3714-21
3242
3163-47
with eye on3207

Thank you all for the input about Gold...

So whats your plan?

American Eagle Gold Uncirculated Coins http://catalog.usmint.gov/wcsstore/C...US/bluedot.gif Production of United States Mint American Eagle Gold Uncirculated Coins continues to be temporarily suspended because of unprecedented demand for American Eagle Gold Bullion Coins. Until recently, all available gold bullion blanks were being allocated to the American Eagle Bullion Coin Program, as the United States Mint is required by Public Law 99-185 to produce these coins “in quantities sufficient to meet public demand . . . .”
Although the demand for precious metal coins remains high, lower demand for bullion orders in August and September allowed the United States Mint to meet public demand and shift some capacity to produce numismatic 2010 American Eagle Gold Proof Coins.
However, due to the continued, sustained demand for American Eagle Gold Bullion Coins, 2010-dated American Eagle One Ounce Gold Uncirculated coins will not be produced. American Eagle Uncirculated Fractional Coins were discontinued after the 2008 program year.
The United States Mint will resume production of American Eagle Gold Uncirculated Coins once sufficient inventories of gold bullion blanks can be acquired to meet market demand for all three American Eagle Gold Coin products.

Source: US Mint



In the short to mid-term, I don't think gold will give room to the bears...

Nice report.

It's a tricky situation. When the demand gets so high and people cannot even wait some months to have their gold, it smells like "herd mentality". It can become a bubble very easily.

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1292004828.php

my point of view for gold action coming week

http://www.aelliot.org/?p=146

kindest regards

it's a masterpiece!!!! Funny to see how he was laughed at...

His recommendation was... GOLD!

silver weekly
30.71
28.58
26.45

monday daily chart
30.46
29.00-10
27.72-74
will be watching how 29-29.10 responds as bias is up from 28.58.

gold weekly

1426.07-29.88

(1387.36-88.62)
looking for direction from this area, although last week bias was up from 1385.61 area we have a new week and if we head north will be watching how 1396.24 responds today.

1347.36

with eye on 1396.24 and 1367.00-1370 areas today