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Higher low, lower high system

  • #3,621
  • Dec 7, 2010 4:32am Dec 7, 2010 4:32am
Quoting Vantage
This is the post news move I was hoping for on gu. With the Defy man finishing and the reports from last night's fence breach done I missed this. Not a good time for me, missed all trades I was interested in yesterday and today so far.

In terms of system 1hr up, 15 min up, news move down strongly rejected for another hl with a massive hammer.

Anyway now I have to make lunch and catch up on some arrear washing, oh joy!.

Hopefully US session will co-operate.
The reason why I was focused on buying and was waiting for the right candles. 4hr chart above shows last bounce lower from 5780 was 140 pips and the bounces lower this am were meaningless by comparison.

The smaller bounce from a key level normally = failure of that level. So with a small bounce already and even news couldn't take it lower = strong chance of a buy working. Just a case of right candles and hoping news wouldn't just blast it higher.
  • #3,622
  • Dec 7, 2010 4:47am Dec 7, 2010 4:47am
Quoting Vantage
Cheers jag, never really focused on oil but fxpro has it so I'll add to look. CLF1 cheers.

Is this a contract that has a changing reference or is it always CLF1? Any tricks that you've picked up or is it the normal way we trade (I see you focus on 30/15 min or is that just the charts you posted). Anyway for now I'll focus on 1hr, 15 + 5 min.
I only really started checking/trading Oil recently because I noticed the priceaction on H1 upwards looked very clean ( not spikey ). The HL / LH looked good on all timeframes too. It seems to trade just the same as any other pair.

I just use fxpro for their charts, I like their broker times for the H4 candle closes. I think their Oil charts change monthly.

I check a good handful of charts every morning and just trade the best looking of them using all timeframes to decide which to trade. I am finding the M30 HL / LH is a very useful reversal signal, moreso than H1 in fact, especially when using m5 for entries.
  • #3,623
  • Dec 7, 2010 4:54am Dec 7, 2010 4:54am
Quoting jag1966
I only really started checking/trading Oil recently because I noticed the priceaction on H1 upwards looked very clean ( not spikey ). The HL / LH looked good on all timeframes too. It seems to trade just the same as any other pair.

I just use fxpro for their charts, I like their broker times for the H4 candle closes. I think their Oil charts change monthly.

I check a good handful of charts every morning and just trade the best looking of them using all timeframes to decide which to trade. I am finding the M30 HL / LH is a very useful reversal...
Cheers, charts are up and I'll be watching with interest!

Anyway definitely making lunch now.
  • #3,624
  • Dec 7, 2010 6:13am Dec 7, 2010 6:13am
Quoting jag1966
I only really started checking/trading Oil recently because I noticed the priceaction on H1 upwards looked very clean ( not spikey ). The HL / LH looked good on all timeframes too. It seems to trade just the same as any other pair.

I just use fxpro for their charts, I like their broker times for the H4 candle closes. I think their Oil charts change monthly.
Last year I was trading oil, experimenting with 1 hr charts and keeping a spreadsheet of moves thro PPs as I was looking to automate trades from early morning positions of PPs. Opportunities are great but was a bit wild over 1 hour. However I am now better at reading PA and candles so maybe I can make more sense of it.

For what its worth, when it broke through a PP it invariably reached R1 or S1, but usually retraced to this as S/R, before setting off again on trend, and when it breaches S1 or R1, it similarly bounced back to PP S/R for usually another 30 pips move. So wait for second candle confirmations.

At the time I wasnt really watching for Hl Lh setups so it could be an excellent opportunity (thanks V for these!!!). I will certainly review it when I have time.

Dont forget to watch for news items, esp on Wed for Crude Oil inventories, which then affect oil currencies eg Loonie.
  • #3,625
  • Dec 7, 2010 6:17am Dec 7, 2010 6:17am
Quoting Barry Cade
Last year I was trading oil, experimenting with 1 hr charts and keeping a spreadsheet of moves thro PPs as I was looking to automate trades from early morning positions of PPs. Opportunities are great but was a bit wild over 1 hour. However I am now better at reading PA and candles so maybe I can make more sense of it.

For what its worth, when it broke through a PP it invariably reached R1 or S1, but usually retraced to this as S/R, before setting off again on trend, and when it breaches S1 or R1, it similarly bounced back to PP S/R for usually...
Thanks for the tips Barry.
  • #3,626
  • Dec 7, 2010 6:40am Dec 7, 2010 6:40am
Quoting Barry Cade
Last year I was trading oil, experimenting with 1 hr charts and keeping a spreadsheet of moves thro PPs as I was looking to automate trades from early morning positions of PPs. Opportunities are great but was a bit wild over 1 hour. However I am now better at reading PA and candles so maybe I can make more sense of it.

For what its worth, when it broke through a PP it invariably reached R1 or S1, but usually retraced to this as S/R, before setting off again on trend, and when it breaches S1 or R1, it similarly bounced back to PP S/R for usually...
Thanks for the tips Barry.

I used to dabble with Oil years back using 2b's on the m1 and m5 charts, that was a wild ride I can tell you lol ( I never managed enough consistency to make it worthwhile though ).

Thank goodness for a better understanding of PASR and for Daves HL LH setups now , hence giving it another go.
  • #3,627
  • Dec 7, 2010 7:46am Dec 7, 2010 7:46am
Quoting Barry Cade

At the time I wasnt really watching for Hl Lh setups so it could be an excellent opportunity (thanks V for these!!!). I will certainly review it when I have time.
I will add another (Acumens) PP indi so that I can do a few backtests to get a better feel for oil setups these days.
  • #3,628
  • Dec 7, 2010 9:45am Dec 7, 2010 9:45am
Quoting Barry Cade
I will add another (Acumens) PP indi so that I can do a few backtests to get a better feel for oil setups these days.
I had a quick run through using the above indi. The attached 15 min chart is on FXCM which uses spot prices rather than futures, and shows todays oil pa and you can see this at pivots & psychs (I havent back-tested to determine how effective 80/20 is against eg 75/25), although nothing I would trade as a HL/LH today. However there is evidence on other days, and also PA at fibs as well as at 13 EMA on 5, 15 and 1hr tfs, and 34ema less regularly. Ignore the bollies. Not sure I need these now, although the mid point has been a reaction point.

In all, its the usual suspects! This is exciting to me as I wouuld love to master oil with its bigger volatility.

As I write this price has bounced off 100fib at 88.60. 200 points in less than 2 hours.

Any additional insight into HL/LH opportunities as they occur on this commodity much appreciated.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,629
  • Dec 7, 2010 9:57am Dec 7, 2010 9:57am
Having just reviewed the 5 min chart, lo & behold. The 200 pip move dropped in nice steps. Gotta move quicker than forex. Hope this is indicative of future trades!
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  • #3,630
  • Dec 7, 2010 12:12pm Dec 7, 2010 12:12pm
Quoting Barry Cade
Having just reviewed the 5 min chart, lo & behold. The 200 pip move dropped in nice steps. Gotta move quicker than forex. Hope this is indicative of future trades!
No idea of profit/loss relationship to forex pips but an initial look seems to give some solid trades around the US open. Your chart certainly shows some clear lh's and on any product can't ask for much more than that. Definitely worth some research into times moves can be expected.
  • #3,631
  • Dec 7, 2010 2:33pm Dec 7, 2010 2:33pm
Quoting Vantage
No idea of profit/loss relationship to forex pips but an initial look seems to give some solid trades around the US open. Your chart certainly shows some clear lh's and on any product can't ask for much more than that. Definitely worth some research into times moves can be expected.
It moves all day! Obviously biggest moves are when doors open as oil is related to stock markets too, but its safest to follow trends.
I had problems last year when trying to create a system based upon PPs that I wanted to set up before markets opened, because it was so volatile during the day.

I was looking to open at a fixed number of pips beyond the PP then close when it reached a fixed number of pips beyond it (it was approx 90 pips beyond PP!), with a view to winning 60-70% of the trades. Also to do the same at R1 & S1 (with approx 30 pips target profit). In theory this looked great but prices would run through then drop back down, then run back up to hit pip target, & I didnt resolve where was the best place to set stops for a sensible risk/reward, nor had I looked at candle formations prior to the retracing movements.

Frankly I needed a software programme creating, or an accomplice. At the time I hadnt found anyone else who was interested, or who traded oil. Until today, I still hadnt. The opportunity is fantastic, hence my excitement, and I feel that HL/LH plus Acumen/EVs approach & skill will crack it, but I suspect that my preferred option of daily setups will have to stay as an idea to be further developed.
  • #3,632
  • Dec 8, 2010 1:31am Dec 8, 2010 1:31am
H1 higher low on Swissy worked well yesterday evening.
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  • #3,633
  • Dec 8, 2010 2:01am Dec 8, 2010 2:01am
Whilst I haven't checked recently, per our prev notes we do not take the 2nd move in Frankies hour, its a low risk prob. So we had no interest in this lh.

5680 is a W pivot and also the body lows in Oct. Could be a bit of a bounce up but I'm expecting another fall. TWT.
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  • #3,634
  • Dec 8, 2010 2:02am Dec 8, 2010 2:02am
Quoting jag1966
H1 higher low on Swissy worked well yesterday evening.

As usual very nice.
  • #3,635
  • Dec 8, 2010 3:23am Dec 8, 2010 3:23am
15 min neg close + shooting star, reject of M2 +75 psych level. 5 min lh shooting star.

Luckily my stop just held. Didn't want to continue fall below RN, lost connection twice (again) and just as importantly with all the problems of last few days felt disconnected from market.

So as my stop just held happy to exit with 15.
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  • #3,636
  • Dec 8, 2010 3:55am Dec 8, 2010 3:55am
Now that I'm almost done reading this thread from the start, I noticed that nowadays, nobody in this thread seems to be trading constant range bars anymore. Any particular reason for this? From what I can tell from the charts earlier posted in this thread, CRBs often seem to provide clear signals...
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #3,637
  • Dec 8, 2010 3:57am Dec 8, 2010 3:57am
Quoting Dhb
Now that I'm almost done reading this thread from the start, I noticed that nowadays, nobody in this thread seems to be trading constant range bars anymore. Any particular reason for this? From what I can tell from the charts earlier posted in this thread, CRBs often seem to provide clear signals...

CRB's didn't want to load on all my charts for some strange reason and I hate to be looking at different things for different currencies. So I took off.
  • #3,638
  • Dec 8, 2010 4:05am Dec 8, 2010 4:05am
Quoting Dhb
Now that I'm almost done reading this thread from the start, I noticed that nowadays, nobody in this thread seems to be trading constant range bars anymore. Any particular reason for this? From what I can tell from the charts earlier posted in this thread, CRBs often seem to provide clear signals...
Still using them..... will never use anything else...
  • #3,639
  • Dec 8, 2010 6:16am Dec 8, 2010 6:16am
Hopefully problems of last few days will reduce. Missed this one due to making lunch, putting on a wash then doc's appointment (Mrs V's blood pressure is considerably lower but needs to be watched over next couple of weeks to check new medication correct).

Anyway it had everything we look for, pos close 1 hr, pos close 15 min, 5 min hl little/no upper wick. A very nice trend trade.

Posted elsewhere also.
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  • #3,640
  • Dec 8, 2010 6:20am Dec 8, 2010 6:20am
Quoting Vantage
Mrs V's blood pressure is considerably lower but needs to be watched over next couple of weeks to check new medication correct.
And now one of her faves on Dancing with the Stars just got 2 tens and shes shouting like there was never a problem. Save me someone please.......

Oh BP now 145/90 from 185/110 I think it was!!!!
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