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  • #121
  • Dec 2, 2010 1:25pm Dec 2, 2010 1:25pm
Actually after finally having a chance to check out some charts this week, it might be time to start looking for demand levels on EU.
  • #122
  • Edited 2:19pm Dec 2, 2010 2:07pm | Edited 2:19pm
Here's Sam's webinar from Tuesday


Edit:

I'm ten minutes in and it's exciting to see Sam talking about the same levels we're watching, I'd highly recommend anyone reading this to check out that link.
  • #123
  • Dec 3, 2010 1:15am Dec 3, 2010 1:15am
Quoting frankkn
Here's Sam's webinar from Tuesday


Edit:

I'm ten minutes in and it's exciting to see Sam talking about the same levels we're watching, I'd highly recommend anyone reading this to check out that link.
Yes, it was a good webinar. Interesting to see that he noted the level I identified on GU Daily as not being an important level. He did not elaborate but probably due to the number of candles in that area, but still a reaction non the less probably more so as a result of dollar supply. Closed trade today good for over 100 but will anticipate potential retest at lower daily level possibly during NFP if at all.
  • #124
  • Dec 3, 2010 2:04pm Dec 3, 2010 2:04pm
A review of the week.

USD reached daily supply, and fell after buying climax. At the same time the euro reached a weekly demand level.

I had a few losses, as I was still shorting expecting buyers would come in at lower prices.

I came out profitable this week again, but not by much. To find my TP this week, I simply looked for 1:3. I made lots of minor changes in instances where my long TP was just across a RN.

I'll have to remember to watch the weekly throughout the week. This week I waited till Thursday and missed some really really easy and profitable trades.
  • #125
  • Dec 3, 2010 2:28pm Dec 3, 2010 2:28pm
Quoting Porkpie
Yes, it was a good webinar. Interesting to see that he noted the level I identified on GU Daily as not being an important level. He did not elaborate but probably due to the number of candles in that area, but still a reaction non the less probably more so as a result of dollar supply. Closed trade today good for over 100 but will anticipate potential retest at lower daily level possibly during NFP if at all.
Nice trade man!
  • #126
  • Dec 4, 2010 7:04pm Dec 4, 2010 7:04pm
<I started this one because I'm trying to focus purely on set and forget methodology.> yes, most appreciated. Set & forget: this is what most wld love to do, than to sacrifice quality of life. With help from all the kind souls here, look forward to competently doing so soon.

Thk you.

Quoting frankkn
Good to have you brother.

That thread is awesome, and is where I posted that weekly /dx chart.

I started this one because I'm trying to focus purely on set and forget methodology. Also this thread doesn't have any restrictions on who can post here.
  • #127
  • Dec 4, 2010 8:00pm Dec 4, 2010 8:00pm
Thank you Frank & Porkpie for your replies.

I read post #103 again several times & have a better understanding now. Thx.

Quoting frankkn
By weaker I mean the fashion in which price left the level.

By lower I mean further "south", not smaller time frames.
  • #128
  • Edited 10:18pm Dec 4, 2010 9:00pm | Edited 10:18pm
eurusd turnaround later part of last week seemed to come too early & catch many in surprise. Ashraf Laidi of CMC thinks its decline after breaking 55 week MA is not over yet. See http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?vid...1095872&play=1 He thinks it cld go to 1.26, which is still within the weekly demand zone. According to Seiden when he talked abt usdjpy on M60 chart in latest webinar, we wld want to see price go deeper into the zone. Both eurusd & usdjpy didn't do that. Interesting to see how they pan out. Thoughts?

Cheers!

Quoting frankkn
A review of the week.

USD reached daily supply, and fell after buying climax....
  • #129
  • Dec 5, 2010 2:06am Dec 5, 2010 2:06am
Are we seeing eurusd hitting supply level 1.3418 on H4 chart?
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  • #130
  • Edited 6:34am Dec 5, 2010 6:21am | Edited 6:34am
Quoting CollectPIPS
eurusd turnaround later part of last week seemed to come too early & catch many in surprise. Ashraf Laidi of CMC thinks its decline after breaking 55 week MA is not over yet. See http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?vid...1095872&play=1 He thinks it cld go to 1.26, which is still within the weekly demand zone. According to Seiden when he talked abt usdjpy on M60 chart in latest webinar, we wld want to see price go deeper into the zone. Both eurusd & usdjpy didn't do that. Interesting to see how they pan out. Thoughts?

Cheers!
Don't forget, higher time frame demand/supply. What has the euro just done? Why might you not want to be looking to short the euro at the moment? Be very careful listening to analysts, they feed the trading masses junk. You should have a trading plan and following nothing else but that, and learning from your mistakes, learning discipline following your rules and no one elses.
  • #131
  • Dec 5, 2010 8:00am Dec 5, 2010 8:00am
Yup. At the end of the day, most reliable is behavior of price & act accordingly.


Quoting Porkpie
Don't forget, higher time frame demand/supply. What has the euro just done? Why might you not want to be looking to short the euro at the moment? Be very careful listening to analysts, they feed the trading masses junk. You should have a trading plan and following nothing else but that, and learning from your mistakes, learning discipline following your rules and no one elses.
  • #132
  • Dec 5, 2010 3:50pm Dec 5, 2010 3:50pm
Here are my orders on EU for now.

I'm gonna take a look at the long term picture tonight and post some more charts.

Just got back home (to Dayton) from Columbus Ohio. I've been up there all weekend because my girl friend's graduation party was today.

Melanie's parents are divorced and haven't seen each other in years and years. During holidays it's always a juggling act between my parents and her parents, because those are 3 mandatory locations right there, not to mention my family in NY and her family in southern Ohio.

These groups never come in contact ever! So today was a coming together of not only these groups, but Melanie's grandmother and husband who reside on a beach in Mexico, and more family from around the mid west.

It was really awkward to try to explain why we hadn't introduced my parents to her parents after years and years. We met when we started college.

Ok well I'm gonna grab a couple beers and check out some weekly charts.
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  • #133
  • Dec 5, 2010 3:57pm Dec 5, 2010 3:57pm
Wow look at these two beastly levels that haven't been re-visited yet. Strongest moves of the past 2 years.

Oh this is the weekly euro futures.
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  • #134
  • Dec 5, 2010 4:15pm Dec 5, 2010 4:15pm
It's going to be an interesting week. Europe debt/deficit problems are still a major issue but can still see EU strength this week. Bad job numbers coupled with ECB quietly buying bonds last week might just do it. We'll find out how much bonds they're talking about on Monday. This well definitely calm investors a bit in the short term but does nothing for Europe's mid-long term problems. Fundamentals is always a bit of a wash but that's how I see the situation. Basically I am looking for a turn around in the euro at the next supply level. Let's see if I'm right or wrong, no promises!

Also, here's another Sunday gap trade. Up trend from mid last week. Gap into demand. Took profits when gap was closed. Pretty easy decision to pull the trigger on this one.
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  • #135
  • Dec 5, 2010 4:16pm Dec 5, 2010 4:16pm
Looks like it is gbp, not eur?

Any reason why you didn't consider 2.0607 as the high end of the supply zone?

Quoting frankkn
Wow look at these two beastly levels that haven't been re-visited yet. Strongest moves of the past 2 years.

Oh this is the weekly euro futures.
  • #136
  • Dec 5, 2010 4:23pm Dec 5, 2010 4:23pm
Just to understand it better: does ECB buying bonds mean ECB injecting money into the market? In other word, QE, in a sense?

Congratz for a quick & easy profit on gap

Quoting Bluehills
It's going to be an interesting week....
  • #137
  • Dec 5, 2010 4:29pm Dec 5, 2010 4:29pm
Quoting Bluehills
It's going to be an interesting week....
Fuckin nice Blue!

I agree that daily supply level looks daunting. Let's keep a keen eye on volume when price reaches that level.

I am sure that fundamentals drive the market. Instead of trying to pan through all of the angles, I'd rather let the pros show me through volume. When price reaches the daily supply level you've shown we will probably see a vicious reaction!

I am not sure how much VSA I've mentioned in here so far. From my experience the three most important principles that I'm going to list are applicable in long or short situations.

Approaching supply, a buying climax will be our first sign of weakness. As a result of the enourmous size of the market-moving players, it is necessary to unload your position while price is rallying strongly. A buying climax is a wide spread up bar closing off of its highs. On smaller time frames, it doesn't necessarily have to close much off its highs. What's important is identifying the "ultra" high volume that really stands out. This shows selling.

After a buying climax usually comes an up-thrust. Up thrusts are basically pin bars, and for now I'm just gonna leave it at that.

The third principle is a no-demand bar. This is a bar that:
-closes higher than the previous bar's close
-has volume less than the previous two bars
-usually has small spread

A break of the low of a no-demand bar is a decent entry.

The big problem with VSA is the fact that your stop is usually pretty large, which makes your r:r not as attractive as just entering with a LO.

The way I incorporate into my style is to use it to validate turns at supply/demand.

Haha long winded, but my point is that when we reach that supply level these are the things we'll need to watch for. I like TOS you should get it if you haven't already.

BTW Blue hows your 4x4 coming along? You guys get snow too?
  • #138
  • Dec 5, 2010 4:33pm Dec 5, 2010 4:33pm
Quoting CollectPIPS
Looks like it is gbp, not eur?

Any reason why you didn't consider 2.0607 as the high end of the supply zone?
Hahaha you're right! Thanks for pointing that out lol

Here is my weekly, and Blue's got the daily covered already
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  • #139
  • Dec 5, 2010 4:36pm Dec 5, 2010 4:36pm
Quoting CollectPIPS

Any reason why you didn't consider 2.0607 as the high end of the supply zone?
I chose the high that was made just before the fall.

Edit:

BTW great question
  • #140
  • Dec 5, 2010 4:39pm Dec 5, 2010 4:39pm
Quoting frankkn
I chose the high that was made just before the fall.

Edit:

BTW great question
Also wanna add that the level's don't really need to be too exact on the weekly for me.

I guess you could say the reason I look at the weekly is the same reason most people look at trend; I'm looking for a bias. The way you drew the levels is much more important when you're considering entry/exit, but I really don't even draw the levels I trade as they just clutter up the screen, I like to just keep the weekly levels on there and maybe draw a line for the bottom of some recent levels.
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