Rufus

Thanks Eric.

I have about given up on sleep..

Not sure if I will trade tonight yet, London opens for me at 12:00am.. I am starting to feal the effects of lack of sleep. It is 8:00 and I haven't made it out the door yet for work. Putting in a stair case today.

Talk to you latter..Nice catch for you too

Rufus

Dollar index dropped right into demand and is showing strength.

Rufus

No trading for me these last few days or to the end of the week. I am busy with a staircase at work and I am not to keen on trading the last half of NFP week. Lots a news releases and wild unplaned swings.

I will be working on my trading plan again the rest of the week. I have some ideas on a premarket worksheet I will be trying out as well. I will post it here for opinions.


Trade safe

Rufus

2 S/D areas

My plan for now is no positions till NFP is out of the way. Besides I have a ton of papper work to do.

But one thing I will be doing here is some posting on how I look at and figure my S/D zones. I am in the process of going over my trading plan for next year and this is one area I want to "fine tune". So if you see something I should add let me know.

Catah you in a bit.

Rufus

Some recent thoughts
　
Recently I have been talking with my wife about how much I have learned about myself since I have started trading and spending so much time studying about the psychology of it. I am now convinced that if I had spent more time learning about me as opposed to learning about the charts my learning curve would have been much smaller. I placed my first trade in the stock market in 1998. Since then I have read everything I could get my hands on about charts, indicators, patterns, candle formations, etc. Nothing about me as an individual trader, what makes me tick. I have even read a lot about market psychology. The missing link has been between my ears. The psychology of how I trade.


You may recall elsewhere how I have spoken about growing up raising cattle and working hard for every nickel I had. “You got to go to work boy”, “money doesn’t grow on trees” , “You think I am made out of money”, “The stock market is gambling“ , “Don‘t waste your money“, “Save your money” . Just a few of the things I had heard repeatedly. All can be true, but if that is your focus in life, wrong as hell. The point of this is that you can never feel guilty or wrong for taking a profit.


Raising cattle required that they had to be sold. But before that something was bought. A profit had to be made. What if I bought the cattle on Wednesday, boarded them at the auction till Sunday and sold them Monday morning at a profit. My dad would have thought that was brilliant. But if I had bought a cattle futures contract on Wednesday and sold it on Monday that would have been gambling. WHAT THE HELL IS THE BLOODY DIFFERENCE. That my friends is part of the mind tricks that would run through my brain. Even the cattle were bought and sold at an auction. The futures contract is bought and sold at an auction as well. As far as I am concerned there is less risk with a futures contract. You could have a couple head die on you, that doesn’t happen with a futures contract.


The point of all this is that you need to find all mental barriers that may be holding you back and resolve them. They cannot be ignored. It is the subconscious mind that they effect and it is with the subconscious mind they we become great traders.

To be continued...:nerd:

Rufus

When we start to understand the psychology of trading and how our minds react to it, we will start to see the markets from a “birds eye view”. I like to picture myself at times looking down at all the orders being placed. The big banks in Europe placing orders to run price right into where they have a big stack of orders waiting to be filled. When I do this I begin to see their work on the charts.

It is happening every day. They don’t give a crap about you. All you are to them is money to be taken.


If you had a million dollar of order to place, where would you place it?


To be continued.....:nerd:

Rufus

This is from a post about mid November.


The candle I have indicated is why I try to be careful with the Asian session, especially when there is a bank holiday in Japan.

Because of the lack of volume it is very easy for big money to move price. Their orders were not at the lower supply zone where I was trying to get in on the ride. They were all sitting like vultures on the supply level above it. They cleaned out stops to get to the level and when it was hit it opened the flood gates of shorts. I nailed it there though and road the wave down with them. HEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAA

It is a dirty game they play but we just need to see it and be aware. Then protect our selves. Illegitimi non carborundum. I should not have even been looking at the charts till just before FF. Sam Seidon has even taught to take the upper zones when they are tight like that. Trade and learn...sometimes you learn the hard way. Through out the whole night I did not get upset about a thing with the stops that got hit.....Stuck with it till I saw the opening then pounced on it. I feal good about that. I have come a long way. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif So I pat myself on the back for that and give me an attaboy.


How many people bought the breakout right into that massive supply?

Trade safe

Rufus

I have also recently come to the conclusion that all crowd behavior can be put on a chart. Whether it be riots, political, religious, or even shopping habits. It can all be charted and the same indicators will apply.

LeBon ….. About crowds. Mass psychology of crowds

“Whoever be the individuals that compose it, however like or unlike be their mode of life, their occupations, their character, or their intelligence, the fact that they have been transformed into a crowd puts them in possession of a sort of collective mind which makes them feel think, and act in a manner quite different from that in which each individual of them would feel, think, and act were he in a state of isolation.”

People change when they join crowds. They become more credulous and impulsive, anxiously search for a leader, and react to emotions instead of using their intellect. An individual who becomes involved in a group becomes less capable of thinking for himself.
　
Now the key for me as a trader is to put myself above the crowd and see it as it exactly is. A mass of traders being manipulated by the whims of emotion. Then it becomes my job to take a position before the emotion of the masses changes and then ride it to profit. To me the big banks and money managers are the catalysts to the waves of emotion that will sweep through the markets. Their orders can stop price right in its tracks and reverse it. Right there my friends is where I want to be. Then the emotions of the rest of the traders moves my positions into profit.

To be continued....:nerd:

Rufus

I could keep on writing about this and I probably will latter. Needless to say I have started to sell off most of my books I have read on charts and indicators and such. Now I consider a lot of it garbage. Sure I will throw a stochastic on the chart once in a while especially in a range bound market. But it all comes down to price. Would I pay $10 for a
gallon of milk…….? If it was the last gallon and I had a package of Oreo cookies yes. Otherwise no. Price combined with supply and demand is how I look at the markets. The stochastic doesn’t care about the supply of milk or whether or not I have a package of Oreo cookies. Price, supply and demand is all that matters at that point. The stochastic would be showing over bought at that point and the masses of the traders would be starting to short milk, but if there is no supply so price will keep rising.


I have rambled enough. Just wanted to get some thoughts down on paper. Then share it with others to get it locked into my brain. Sunday starts a new week for the markets and I will be ready for it.

Trade safe everybody

Rufus

EU prep.

Rufus :nerd:

GU prep 4h chart

The other chart is a 1hr chart of the same supply zone showing the price action while there. FF took price to top of zone, London dropped it out, us took it back in to then meander for the next 21 hours. There may be a supply there to watch for but no pending orders on it fo me.

I will be looking at the USD index next.

Rufus :nerd:

Dollar index approaching demand area

Right now I am working on getting a grip on the EU. I know Tokyo took it south and I missed that entry by 30 minutes. Got home late. But I don’t like the gap in the dollar index. Are there some large orders far to the north with the EU that would fill the gap on the USD index?

Rufus

Rufus,

Just wonder whether you used an auto fibs indicator, if so, can it be shared?

Eric

EU long

Bounce off demand shown on 15m chart

Rufus

Targets hit. Piece left on to cook stops at break even +

Inspite of this move with FF. I am not convinced about London. This could be a head fake to hit positions. Then take it south. We will soon see.

Rufus

Hi Eric

I draw in all my fibs. It would be shared if I had one.

Rufus