Silent Service Method

I am in a short position on this one, there may be too much noise below the monthly pin, that is a concern for me.

I could see that. Besides, this stupid pair was the bane of my existence months ago. Since then, I have pretty much ignored it to be honest.

Ok, blog is back up.....I started to redo it tonight. I might be working on it this week from time to time, which you will see a splash screen saying it's in being worked on and when I will have it back up. (I am only bakc to functional at the moment - I want to do a lot more with it before it's all said and done.)

Do me a favor, play around with it and let me know if anything is wrong - I am sure it is! lol

I am going to start doing a weekly video on it. (Already uploaded)

Chris

Some updates on my recent trades:

And my other trade.....

Since I get at least one good question a week via email or PM, I have just done my first "Question of the Week" video at the blog. (thetraderguy.com)

Chris

The Euro might be in bigger trouble than we all thought long term. Here is something you haven't heard yet: Watch Belgium.

The cost of insurance for insuring Belgian government debt is rising, and rapidly.

Here's a nice article that sums up things...
http://www.vision.org/visionmedia/article.aspx?id=37578

It appears to be more of a political problem. The article also says that speculation might actually serve to unify the different factions, as it did in 2008 during the banking crisis.

The figures I was quoting are the insurance costs, which for 10 mils is now at 150,000 USD which is much higher than the normal $50,000. I am not suggesting that the Belgians are going to bring Europe down by themselves.....but if you add them into the mix of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain - there aren't that many members left to do the bailing out! lol

Most Germans are probably pissed about now. And they should be.

Thanks for the link though, pretty good stuff.

Yes, but, then again the Germans have had their hand in the making of this mess. The reason all this is happening is that the ECB rates were set to suit Germany's economy and no regard was taken for the fact that countries like Greece, Portugal etc needed a quite different set of rates etc.

Kind of a one size fit all, but in this case, as it's turning out, in the end it really just fitted Germany and not the others.

So, yes, Germans are angry, but imho they're more or less throwing stones in a glass house.

Not that I really care as long as the currencies move up and down that's all we traders need.

I do however say a quiet "Thank God" that Sweden stayed out of the euro. Would you believe there are still politicians in Sweden who want us to join? Apparently an IQ above that of Forrest Gump isn't needed to be a politician...

Thank you Chris. Great blog, loved the idea of having a weekly video. Found it very informative.

cheers

Hi All,

Looking at the monthly charts I see the following signs that the direction may be pro-USD in the coming 6 months.

AUDUSD - BEOB (all time high and last this happened was pre-Lehman)
NZDUSD - BEOB (ditto)
EURGBP - 3 Bar reversal (and weekly BEOB at falling trend line from a while back)
AUDCAD - BEOB @ failed at falling trend line
EURUSD - Mahoosive BEOB and through rising lower trend line
GBPUSD - BEOB (just not looking convincing)
AUDNZD - had recent weekly BEOB, daily double top completed and now looking to complete a weekly double top
USDCAD - monthly hammer type candle taking out the low for the past 6 months and now closing bullish, last time this happened at similar levels we saw 1.12 (Ugly congestion on this chart though)
USDJPY - BUOB (dinapoli railroad tracks pattern) 70 pips off highs at the moment but still looking to be losing its offer (through falling upper trend line)
GOLD and SILVER continue to go parabolic in what can only be called a blow off while many commodities have been falling limit down most days for the past week (Gold is close to completing the second shoulder of a rising daily H&S pattern also)
EURCHF - BEOB but not at a swing high
USDSGD - BUOB

and on and on blah blah etc.

It is times like this in the market when everything just seems to line up all too nicely that I start to get a little nervous.

I am going to place some small sell orders at close of a number of these bars however only looking to commit the rest of the my normal position size on a 38.2 or 50% retracement of the Nov monthly candles.

Anyone else got any thoughts on what appears at first glance to be a coming apocalypse for risk currencies?

I never like to get too alarmist especially when things appear obvious on the charts. There are however European concerns (PIIGS + Belgium and even talk today of downgrading France), a raft of Chinese NYSE listings being found to be frauds, China looking to hike interest rates again thanks to uncle Ben's money printing exporting inflation, NZ bug killing their kiwi fruit crop which accounts for 2.5-3% of GDP there, Norway warning of an imminent housing bubble concern, HK housing bubble starting to unravel and so on.....

Looking fwd to your thoughts one and all as I decide how I place my chips for the coming few months based on the November close this evening.

Cheers.


4x.

Adding to the potential pro-USD sentiment is a chart I am posting below.....perhaps we are heading into a "fear-based" USD rally soon?

Of course, also of note is the fact that the US numbers are starting to get a little better lately.....

Someone I know in the private forum has an experiment going selling these Chinese frauds, I hope his is doing this live. (Can't remember at the moment, but I would assume he cleaned up with this news.)

It's hard to believe, fraud coming out of China? lol

Chris

There was a list of these stocks posted online yesterday. They are all of the stocks audited by the firm that has been behind the recently failed companies.

I have posted it below for you to check out.

Amazingly poor PR for the NYSE LOL

The biggest problem is the "sheeple" mentality with all things China. You can see it and hear it in the faces and interviews of the morons CNBC puts on day in and day out. They say the same things over and over, and one of them is "I like emerging markets with high growth potential like China."

So what happens is that someone in China figures out that the morons in NY are willing to buy anything listed from there, and BAM! - They make a ton of money in a few hours.

Eur/Usd closed out.

Oh s**t! We bailed out Ireland and Greece....and the Euro's still tanking!

So if they're selling the euro against the dollar.....all we need to do is support the bailout with USD! Problem solved.



------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

By William L. Watts LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The United States is prepared to support an extension of the European Financial Stability Facility, the euro-zone rescue fund put in place by the European Union following the Greek bailout, through an extra commitment of funding from the International Monetary Fund, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing an unnamed U.S. official. The report was credited with boosting the euro and lifting U.S. stocks to new daily highs. The official said a decision is up to the European officials, but that the United States would support using the IMF in current circumstances, the report said.

Tanking? I show it the EUR 150pips on the day vs the dollar and up almost 200 vs the yen...also, I don't think it was definitive... This is what i read from Bloomberg:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The euro briefly extended gains after Reuters reported,
citing an unnamed U.S. official, a bailout-fund expansion would
be Europe’s decision. A U.S. official in Washington told
Bloomberg the U.S. is not discussing extra IMF money for Europe.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Either way stocks seemed to love it bonds seemed to hate it (US 10yr note pushing towards 3%... +16.5bp on the day... a massive move by bond market standards).

Interesting times we're living in...

I saw this one yesterday too and had a small nibble at it on a small retracement. Turns out there was a bigger one coming today and it's busy nibbling at me

I still like the setup but won't add till the 1205 region I think.