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vsa with Malcolm

  • #7,561
  • Dec 1, 2010 11:30am Dec 1, 2010 11:30am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...al-crisis.html

Or maybe this.
  • #7,562
  • Dec 1, 2010 11:30am Dec 1, 2010 11:30am
Quoting Sonofsin5
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...-declines.html
Are you sure it was that (not that it matters much, just curious)?
Cause that news is 4h old (look at the header of the news)... unless he came back live, talking or reinforcing that view.

When I saw the spike and came to my PC, I looked at the news feed from my broker... the only thing I saw by that time was some declarations from Irish Financial Minister, and from EU's Barnier.
  • #7,563
  • Dec 1, 2010 11:45am Dec 1, 2010 11:45am
Was it Tom W. himself who mentioned that SM uses the news to accelerate their planned moves and keep retail traders out or trap because of the fast pa ?

I wonder now what they have on their minds. A big retracement or trend reversal ? We'll see what more vsa could tell us.

  • #7,564
  • Dec 1, 2010 11:48am Dec 1, 2010 11:48am
What i saw as the price moved up of the Euro, as price exploded up it did not have many sellers stoping the movement up. SO i think it kept on moving up because of this reason. There was just no sellers stoping price so they kept buying until they hit a cluster of stop orders.

Just my theory!
  • #7,565
  • Dec 1, 2010 12:42pm Dec 1, 2010 12:42pm
EUR/USD

1. Squat candle: High volume down candle with small body at the bottom of the mini trend.
Ø Evidence buyers have enters
Ø The reason the trend stops here is because it is at the bottom of the right shoulder of a possible head and shoulders setup (obviously that did not happen).

2. Squat candle: Again there is another high volume candle with a small body.
Ø More evidence that buyers are coming in
Ø This identifies a double bottom
Ø Price needs a double bottom at the bottom of a trend because it needs enough evidence that there are no more sellers available

3. Up candle with selling in it and on less volume
Ø There is now enough buyers to have an up candle
Ø Since this candle is lower volume the selling at the top was very low amount
Ø No more sellers at this level any more

4. Full body candle on lower volume:
Ø This is my favorite candle, full body hidden test
Ø It is moving up on low volume with little to no sellers
Ø Remember the last candle had almost no sellers remaining
4a. Squat candle:
Ø We need buyers to come in a continue the up move but instead sellers came in here
Ø Since there is not a trend happening here, meaning there is not a lot of buyers in the market, it can easily be stopped with a small amount of sellers
Ø It only takes one candle to stop the movement here because the market is very close to equilibrium
Ø In a trend it take numerous candles to stop a trend because there is a lot of buyers or sellers

5. Selling candle:
Ø There is buying at the bottom of this candle
Ø How do we know this? Because the next candle is up
Ø Price pulls back to the top of the double bottom
Ø When price pullback to the top of a double bottom that is a good indication of a up move

6. Hidden test:
Ø The candle is moving up on low volume, almost a full body
Ø Enough buyers have come in to push price to the area of candle 4a
Ø Again market is very close to equilibrium with slightly more buyers than sellers
Ø There is selling at the top of this candle but it is low volume selling because this candle is low volume

7. Higher volume up candle: engulfing
Ø The sellers that entered on candle 6 where absorbed by the buyers
Ø You can see that volume is average here meaning price did not need a lot of buyers to absorb the sellers
Ø Why is volume average here? Because candle 6 showed that price is very close to equilibrium and to move in any direction price only needs an average amount to move up or down until it hits resistance
Ø There is little to no sellers at the top of this candle because the buyers absorbs the small amount of sellers in the market
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Euro 1.gif Size: 9 KB
Attached Image
  • #7,566
  • Dec 1, 2010 1:33pm Dec 1, 2010 1:33pm
Equilibrium: This is an example on market equilibrium. I think it could help some of you, I hope!

Ø When the market is in equilibrium there is an equal amount of buyers and sellers in the market. With average or above average volume, price can be moved in any direction until it encounters resistance to the movement.
Ø A test or no demand is a market in equilibrium that is why you will see a price movement after the test or no demand, because an average amount of buyers or sellers can easily move the market. Then more buyers or sellers come in to continue the movement and make it into a trend.
Ø After equilibrium has happened and buyers or sellers have entered to move the market. This movement can be stopped with one or two candles. You do not need a lot of evidence in the background.

Eur/Usd 5 mins

1. No demand: Market at equilibrium

2. Average amount of sellers enter the market to continue the trend down with ease

3. Squat:
Ø Buyers entered here and stopped the movement one candle after the test (when the market was at equilibrium).
Ø Price only needs one candle full of buyers to stop the movement down
Ø Why? Because the current price is not far from equilibrium in candle 1, meaning there is not a lot of sellers present, yet.

4. No demand:
Ø The market is slightly over equilibrium with more buyers than sellers as the buyer entered on candle 3.
Ø Low volume buying is present just above the equilibrium point.
Ø Price can easily be moved down with average volume or up with average volume but since we are in a down trend we should expect a down movement.

5. Full body candle average volume down
Ø Good evidence for a continued down move

6. Up trust: in the middle of a trend
Ø This has lower volume
Ø When you see an up trust on low volume in the middle of a trend it means a pullback happened on the lower time frame

7. A high volume candle with selling at the bottom
Ø This has the highest volume over the last 15 candles
Ø It does not have a wider range full body like 5 but instead has small body
Ø The next candle is up which confirms buyers were present
Ø Candle 7 stops the selling because there was not enough sellers present between candle 5 and 6 to continue the trend.
Ø There were buyers entering in candle 6 which makes it even easier to stop the present trend with one candle
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro 3.png Size: 21 KB
  • #7,567
  • Dec 1, 2010 1:40pm Dec 1, 2010 1:40pm
Your posts suck lol

Only kidding ... they are AWESOME. Thanks for posting them . Very well explained sets ups

Quoting Seepiprun
Equilibrium: This is an example on market equilibrium. I think it could help some of you, I hope!

[font=Calibri]Ø When the market is in equilibrium there is an equal amount of buyers and sellers in the market. With average or above average volume, price can be moved in any direction until it encounters resistance to the movement.
Ø [font=Calibri][size=3]A test or no demand is...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #7,568
  • Dec 1, 2010 2:06pm Dec 1, 2010 2:06pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Your posts suck lol

Only kidding ... they are AWESOME. Thanks for posting them . Very well explained sets ups
Got a EU chart to post up?
  • #7,569
  • Dec 1, 2010 2:29pm Dec 1, 2010 2:29pm
area to think of short or just poor analysis???
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  • #7,570
  • Dec 1, 2010 3:08pm Dec 1, 2010 3:08pm
Quoting forextine
Got a EU chart to post up?

1.3100 I want to see tests. I am still think 1.33 by end of week.

ES I noticed that the area off 1175 being defended that I spoke about earlier in the week and last week was in fact reaccumulation . Today was a very bullish day and we may in fact see new es highs for 2010 .

If there are really euro issues why are all stocks markets flying high ?

Taking it day by day still .... but looking for tests 3100 area for long. I may not get this so breakout 1.3150 and then test I am also long. Lets see what asai brings us.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #7,571
  • Dec 1, 2010 8:52pm Dec 1, 2010 8:52pm
Quoting Stackhouse
I agree. Same experience here. Just want to hear affirmation from others.

Thank you.
I find the JPY/AUD pairs are the best for asia. Especially AUD news time

I generally take my 20 pips well before London. Suits me cause I'm an Aussie.

This was the long I took yesterday after the GDP news. Text book VSA set-up right on the monthly low.

Wide spread climactic vol down bar. Strength then appears on an up bar. Then we test that vol and viola up she flies
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,572
  • Dec 2, 2010 12:33am Dec 2, 2010 12:33am
My 26th VSA Trade (Live).

Executed Order.
GBP/USD - Long
Date: 1-Dec-10
Time: Alpari 12:45
Entry: 1.5607
Initial SL: 1.5577 (-30 pips)
Initial TP: 1.5637 (+30 pips)

Reasons:
Note the Red vertical line, the bar after this line is my signal bar.
GBP/USD was down for a long period, now reversed to up with more Buyers.
Look for Test.
Enter Long on Test.
Hull Green on M15 & H1.

Attached:
M15
Entry (small Yellow horizontal line),
Initial SL (small Red horizontal line),
Initial TP (small Green horizontal line).

I will inform of exit result no matter it is profit or loss.

Final Result.
The above order hit SL: 1.5577 ( -30 pips).

** Please comment on analysis.

Trade Management:
- After entry, was in a messy area of sideways.
- Then a quick breakdown to previous Buyers that hit SL.
- With further Tests, suddenly news spike the price up.

Please comment on how to improve this trade ??

Thanks,
FB.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-12-01_VSA_Exit26_GBPUSD_M15_Long.png Size: 100 KB
  • #7,573
  • Dec 2, 2010 12:41am Dec 2, 2010 12:41am
Quoting malcolmb14
1.3100 I want to see tests. I am still think 1.33 by end of week.

ES I noticed that the area off 1175 being defended that I spoke about earlier in the week and last week was in fact reaccumulation . Today was a very bullish day and we may in fact see new es highs for 2010 .

If there are really euro issues why are all stocks markets flying high ?

Taking it day by day still .... but looking for tests 3100 area for long. I may not get this so breakout 1.3150 and then test I am also long. Lets see what asai brings us.
There's some 1.31 tests.
  • #7,574
  • Dec 2, 2010 12:53am Dec 2, 2010 12:53am
My 27th VSA Trade (Live).

Executed Order.
EUR/USD - Short
Date: 1-Dec-10
Time: Alpari 16:30
Entry: 1.3059
Initial SL: 1.3089 (-30 pips)
Initial TP: 1.3029 (+30 pips)

Reasons:
Note the Red vertical line, the bar after this line is my signal bar.
Saw Sellers.
Went Short on No Demand.
Hull Red on M15. Hull Green on H1.

Attached:
M15
Entry (small Yellow horizontal line),
Initial SL (small Red horizontal line),
Initial TP (small Green horizontal line).

I will inform of exit result no matter it is profit or loss.

Final Result.
The above order hit SL: 1.3089 ( -30 pips).

** Please comment on analysis.

Trade Management:
- This was NOT a valid VSA entry, as no complete VSA setup.
- Saw Sellers, so quickly went short at No Demand.
- Actually background is still Strength.
- After Short entry, a quick Oops came with further Tests.
- Suddenly news spike the price up that hit SL.
- This was a Silly Short Entry !!!

Please comment on how to improve this trade ??

Thanks,
FB.



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-12-01_VSA_Exit27_EURUSD_M15_Short.png Size: 97 KB
  • #7,575
  • Dec 2, 2010 1:42am Dec 2, 2010 1:42am
You said it yourself silly entry. Wait for the setup and the confirmation then pull the trigger. If you plan a trade why trade without your plan?
Timing is everything
  • #7,576
  • Dec 2, 2010 4:20am Dec 2, 2010 4:20am
Quoting foxybunny
My 27th VSA Trade (Live).

Executed Order.
EUR/USD - Short
Date: 1-Dec-10
...
master malcolmb said numerous times that background in VSA is everything.
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #7,577
  • Edited 4:47am Dec 2, 2010 4:34am | Edited 4:47am
Hi there,
hope that everyone caught this rally.. There's still room I guess

Target 1.3225 (at least)..

Many pips,
Indiana
  • #7,578
  • Dec 2, 2010 5:36am Dec 2, 2010 5:36am
Quoting foxybunny
My 27th VSA Trade (Live).

Executed Order.
EUR/USD - Short
Date: 1-Dec-10
Time: Alpari 16:30
Entry: 1.3059
Initial SL: 1.3089 (-30 pips)
Initial TP: 1.3029 (+30 pips)

Reasons:
Note the Red vertical line, the bar after this line is my signal bar.
Saw Sellers.
Went Short on No Demand.
Hull Red on M15. Hull Green on H1.

Attached:
M15
Entry (small Yellow horizontal line),
Initial SL (small Red horizontal line),
Initial TP (small Green horizontal line).

I will inform of exit result no matter it is profit or loss.

Final Result.
The above...
Let me see,

When strength appears it`s on down bars,

we have climatic action on that down bar, second bar is down but must of contained more buyers than sellers because the next bar which you thought was a ND bar was up (volume was to high to be a ND bar)

we then have another down bar, volume the same, with the next bar up, again more buyers in that down bar, also the low of that up bar was lower than the previous but still finished higher.

the next bar is an up bar closing on the highs, healthy buyers.

then we have a test, very low volume down bar closing on the highs, no sellers left.

comments welcome.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euvsa.gif Size: 36 KB
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #7,579
  • Dec 2, 2010 5:40am Dec 2, 2010 5:40am
Hello gez40,

Does TraderInterceptor's BV indicator work normally at this moment?
cheers,
polomine

Quoting gez40
Let me see,

When strength appears it`s on down bars,

we have climatic action on that down bar, second bar is down but must of contained more buyers than sellers because the next bar which you thought was a ND bar was up (volume was to high to be a ND bar)

we then have another down bar, volume the same, with the next bar up, again more buyers in that down bar, also the low of that up bar was lower than the previous but still finished higher.

the next bar is an up bar closing on the highs, healthy buyers.

then we have a test, very...
  • #7,580
  • Dec 2, 2010 5:51am Dec 2, 2010 5:51am
Quoting polomine
Hello gez40,

Does TraderInterceptor's BV indicator work normally at this moment?
cheers,
polomine
Only up to the 30min, hourly and upwards no, not sure why though.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
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