It's kind of curious...the war between price and indicators

Maybe that is only relevant to how long you intend to hold your position? So, if you intend to open and hold a position for 5 minutes, then you only need to know which way the wind had been blowing for the previous five minutes. So to speak!

There has to be a line in the sand under which you sell and above which you buy. I can see how that can be achieved with one historic candle, but I'm struggling to wrap my head around doing it with only the current candle.

If I need to know which way the wind was blowing I need to know history. And it doesnt matter what TF you use.

It was just a thought.

I don't make many posts, but I have been lurking in this thread, and following it with much interest for the past few days. There are many analogies which have been seemingly tossed around by CrucialPoint and other traders here, and a few months ago, I too would have been quite frustrated at their seemingly "cryptic" messages.

But the fact of the matter is, these analogies are helping you to think. The end result is that if you spend enough time on a problem - it will come to you. And you will feel amazing when you have come to realize that the complexity of trading, is that it is so marvellously simple.

The crux of what CrucialPoint is saying is that the only thing we need to be concerned about, is price relative to a particular point of reference. It can be any point of reference, because we are only interested in the movement of price at that specific time.

Additionally, if I were to post pictures of charts of EUR/USD, while blocking the time-frame, and blurring out the time and price axes you'd be hard pressed to initially identify what Time Frame I was presenting, and it's also likely that you might unintentionally interpret it to be the time frame that you are accustomed to at first glance. This is a testament to the fact that the way price moves, is universal on all time frames. As I read in another excellent thread here on Forex Factory, the only difference from one time frame to the other, is the scale. The candlesticks of one time frame will all be relative to each other in size, but when candlesticks among time frames are compared, the only real difference is the absolute values of these candlesticks.

I am finding great difficulty expressing the fact that we only need to be concerned with what is happening now, relative to our time frame. If price is moving upwards, and we are trading the Daily time frame, then we should be trying to go long to follow its prevailing direction. Price may be doing all sorts of other things on other time-frames, because as we know for example, a Daily up candle will be the culmination of several up and down moves on a 5M chart.

Will you concern yourself with the fact that price seems to oscillate direction on all time frames that you are not looking at? Or are you able to simply gauge where price is currently, relative to a specific point in time on your time frame, and leave it at that - going long when price is above our reference line, and short when price is below our reference line?

This is why the oft-quoted "buy when it's up" and "sell when it's down" axoim, which can mean so little to those who have not really sat down and thought about it, is actually the foundation of trading in its simplest sense. And for those of us worried about whether price will continue in its prevailing direction, forming a trend, then perhaps we can move our Stop-Loss to break even vanquishing all uncertainties once and for all...if it reverses, no harm for us, if it prevails, then we are letting our winners run. The only difficult part is determining when to exit! Static risk reward ratios are greatly inferior to dynamic ones, and when you have found a way for the market to tell you when to exit; that a move is complete; then you have found an exit method with a dynamic risk reward ratio.

I am well aware that following the trend will produce draw down in range periods, and thus the simple problem is how do we predict when the market is ending and beginning its trending/ranging cycles?

We cannot. So how can we mitigate the drawdown we face when price ranges? What if we spaced out our entries? We would be able to catch great moves on the trend, as price moves in our favour, and when the market is ranging, it would effectively limit our losses, since we would be exposing ourselves much less, by virtue of our fewer entries. Can you see that? What if we were trading the Daily TimeFrame, and instead of trading every day, traded once a week? Can you see how this would help us avoid much whipsaw? When the trend finally resumes and we place our trade in the direction of the trend, in the same once a week manner, the trend will bring price away from our entry yielding much profit; enough to cover our losses from the whipsaw action during the range, and provided we have a dynamic exit method, we can extract as much from the trend as it is willing to give us. Essentially, we have fixed our risk, but have allowed our reward to increase constantly, until the trend ends.

Before I go, I hope you will not be too upset if I tried to leave an analogy, which I came up with late one night, which essentially made everything click for me.

Stoplights provide a means for regulating traffic flow on our roads. Suppose that each time you run a red light, you are caught and ticketed.

At this specific point in time, you are approaching a stop-light and it is green. What would you do? Would you not go; proceed in the prevailing direction, until it changes? Or would you stop because you are overly concerned that it is suddenly going to just switch on you in the blink of an eye? How then would you ever make it to your destination?

What if we are already at a red light, which is telling us to stop. Are you going to just go, thinking that the stop-light will simply change colour because we think it should; because we want it to? Because we have deemed it to be "red for too long?" By imposing our own expectations on the stop-light, we will be wrong more often than not, and end up running the stop-light, getting us some hefty fines. Why can't we simply just do as the stop-light dictates?

Remember that the stoplights in most countries (not in mine for some reason) also have an intermediate yellow light. Usually this tells us that we should be wary of a change.

I don't know how well of a job I have done with the above, but hope that it can be related to trading in some way, shape or form, and hope that I have not confused anyone, if they are already confused as it is.

Differing points of view are welcome, as that is the only way we learn. If I was not exposed to differing points of view, then when I finished the BabyPips School, in my perception, the Cowabunga System would be the only way to trade. And clearly, like Courage the Cowardly Dog says, "It's not!"



Just a few thoughts,
xXTrizzleXx

PS. I'm in the middle of some math homework, so this may be subject to typo's and may have a sense of incoherency, as this post does not have my undivided attention.

Absolutely brilliant post. Thank you.

This is not a hard concept.. in fact this is how professional traders trade.. they use pivot points to determine when to buy and sell.. when you see price under the main pivot point you can clearly see price is headed away from there and to R1 then you are looking to sell and then you use R1 to see if price heads from there to main pivot or down to R2

I learn this from reading about how they used to trade with the old ticker takes.. thats why pivot points are so useful for the old floor traders who don't have any charts to refer to.. along with watching ticks and such

interesting find tho

You are the first person to sum it up precisely and you are the first person who I encountered who gets it. You have the right set of talents and aptitude to become the top 5%. You have a great future ahead of you.

I would suggest people to re-read/bookmark xXTrizzleXx post.

No-one can write it all in one post, but I can tell at what level you are at. My hat's off to you sir. You have my full respect.

"Nothing in this world, worth having, comes easy."

People want the easy way out. They are not willing to work hard. You can measure people how they behave in the face of adversity, in the face of hardship, in the face of problematic situation. You can measure if they have what it takes, if they possess certain qualities, only then a few can rise up above the rest. Only a few truly deserves it.

I believe in tough love. I'm going to make everyone work hard for it. I'm going to push people's thinking to the brink. Some will succeed, some will fail, some won't have a clue what's going on. Sometimes I may sound arrogant. People will hate me, people will despise me... I don't give a sh*t what people may think of me. I don't have tolerance for the weak.

But to those who surpass my tough love, those are the ones who truly deserves it.

CrucialPoint signing out for the holidays. Drive safe. Enjoy your holidays with your love ones.

@CrucialPoint,
It gives me great pleasure to know that I am on the right track - your comments are warmly appreciated. The respectful feelings are completely mutual. Hope you enjoy your holidays!

@Other Traders,
Hopefully you may have been able to understand my analogy, or what I was trying to portray, and I hope that with a few readings, it will all finally click, and as a fellow trader constantly states, "With enough diligence, we will all meet eventually at the final door of profits."

Happy Trading,
xXTrizzleXx

xXTrizzleXx,

Excellent post! Thanks for taking the time to put that summary of your thoughts and interpretations together. I think it helps shine the light on what CP is trying to show us. I can only hope that you'll continue to chime in on this board as often as possible.

Pretty much everything you mentioned is very relevant to my style of trading.. the only thing I think is crazy about crucial points posts are the whole draw a line when to sell and when to buy..

because I don't know where your drawing your lines from.. but if your doing it from somewhere like the beginning of the day, while it would work in most cases.. its easy for the day to reverse and if your selling just because the day is down its not unheard of to have the day reverse directions and your still selling while price is clearly ralling upward..

but maybe I am wrong about where you draw your lines..

but for me I do draw my own lines.. and they are at the most recent fractals and not the type of lines I saw on CP charts.. while I'm not sure.. but I could probably tell you my lines are a lot more accurate since they allow me to adapt at a moments notice which direction I'm looking to go

I would hate for someone to be waiting 3 hours still selling when the down trend is over..

:-p

otherwise now I see what CP is trying to say in all his posts.. and why he decides to try and mask it all up is only because most people would take what he says and trade it in a failing way since they didn't truly figure it out with there own mind..

but I still put my money on the fact that he doesnt have a secret system and its nothing special or hidden from the norm.. He either claims it is secret as a teaching method.. or he truly believes his methods are secret when there not.. there in plain view you of everyone.. its just a fact that there are 100's of ways to view the market.. and his way of viewing it is a lot more profitable

my suggestion is read Trizzle's post and see if everything he says relates to your current methods of trading.. if it does then you get it.. if your system is missing aspects to what Trizzle said.. then you don't get CP's teachings.. atleast thats how I figure out what CP is saying.. I was like.. "well this is very much how I trade" and then I was like "oh.. I get what hes saying" and then I was like "Wow I think I understand why my trading methods work better than I ever have..."

Some really great posts by folks here. Nice going!!

Now I get what xXTrizzleXx is saying, but...

Isn't this similar to the information I posted about the 4H bar??

Drawing a line at the open of the 4H bar gives us our line the in the sand. Dropping to a lower TF allows us to time entries in coordination with the larger trend of the 4H bar.

But there still remains the criteria of when to enter. I mean if you just enter a sell order everytime price just started moving down you would get murdered even with tight money management.

So unless I am missing something (which I am sure I am lol) what Trizzle has stated meshes nicely with the charts I posted.

Now that is using a hard and fast line at the open of every 4H candle as an example. So this is really no different than using MA's that are set for coordination of hourly breakdowns to create that same line but in a dynamic way rather than a static one.

So someone please tell me what I am missing other than the obvious money management piece of this pie.

If dynamic RR is better than static RR then that might imply that a dynamic reference point is preferred to a static one.

I know we all respect CP, but I think there are actually better ways to view the market.. because while CP's methods are great they are nothing like viewing the market for its actual structure and stuff like orderflow in my opinion is probably an even stronger view than CP's trading methods..

but thats just a new thought of mine and a sudden realization that I think at first glance would provide more power over CP's already powerful teachings

Hmmm..

CP's words may or may not be full of it; CP's instructional charts, which are in the RB, are fantastic. Everyone should look at them, especially beginners: It'd save them a lot of time and effort.

Why some .ex4 file not support live trading?

but...

you don't even know what cp's method is? no one does! for all we know it could be darkstars twin, or split personality. for all we know cp could be soros and darkstar could be my mum.

you jumped from being in love with cp, to being in love with ds. lol, whore!

To be fair, orderflow and market structure isn't necessarily "DS", it's just the way the market works and you can learn about both from academic papers (Lyons, Osler).

DEC 03, 2010

RPT 24hours levels

Order Flow information for EU are as follow.

NOTE: ...... Soft buy early 1 3195. TP 1.3240
Buy 1.3240 TPs 1.3260 1.3288 1.3300 1.3326
Sell 1.3222 TP 1.3180 1.3145 1.3100


EURUSD: WEEKLY PARAM. IB 1.3301 --- 1.2967 Price filling weekly param...


1.3225 1.3270 1.3300 1.3326

Pivotal Value at 1.3184 ::::: break below SELL, above BUY

1.3145 1.3045 1.3000 1.2956

I also use daily range... EUR has approx .0150 pips daily...
so adding that low of today, sort of the baseline, we get a value of 1.3345-1.3355. that should mark the top for today, thats for an upday..if price above pivotal.
if we are below pivotal area,, I would do same calc
on the down side.. it's simply taking the current high - .0150 = ?????


good luck...