It's kind of curious...the war between price and indicators | Page 9 | Forex Factory

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It's kind of curious...the war between price and indicators

  • #161
  • Dec 1, 2010 12:04am Dec 1, 2010 12:04am
Let the record hold some insight into how banks trade forex..

CP any insight into this thread.. I personally don't know a thing about banks and since you indicated some knowledge on the subject.. anyone else have some insight? I guess if you knew what banks are doing you could easily trade price in the current

http://www.forex-fxtrader.com/forum/...ade-forex.html

do you guys agree with the threads conclusion that I posted link to.. I almost would argue.. "no trade whatever the banks are doing" but hopefully his right with 12 years experience because I don't know how to trade like the banks so it gives me comfort continuing my methods
  • #162
  • Dec 1, 2010 12:22am Dec 1, 2010 12:22am
Quoting newyear498
I don't have anything against you.. so dont think I'm looking for a fight :-p but everything I'm saying and you are saying relates to this post about trading on price and in the current...
I know... I for one is not looking for a fight, or a useless debate.

I think you are missing the point:

 

  1. Forget my secret attitude
  2. Forget about the secrets... because they will remain a secret
  3. I'm not going to teach you how to make millions
  4. I'm going to shine a light and hope you will find your own way
  5. This is not a sales pitch building up... so don't get scammed. I've mentioned it in my profile/thread about anyone proclaiming to be CrucialPoint

I understand your situation, when I don't explain myself, how frustrating it can be. How this being "ready or not ready". This is a trading forum, not a personal development forum, though trading successfully requires great personal development milestones.

So I am asking for personal apologies if you feel I am not connecting with you on any level. Discussing these thing derails the topic of the thread. The point is to take what you can... If you think I talk a lot of Bullsh*t, one would make better use of their time if they simply brush me aside

Trance statement?... all I'm saying is that if I don't make sense to you, its best that you don't pay attention to me. I don't mean that in any negative way. It just means you and I are on different levels.

Picture a college professor trying to teach a 13 years old kid, a science degree. The 13yo will have lots of questions. The 13yo is not ready and answering those questions waste a lot of time and energy.

Please understand, I am not degrading anyone's intelligence. Forgive me, but I will not respond to questions that I deemed not up to par with what I am trying to teach.


Peace

  • #163
  • Dec 1, 2010 12:45am Dec 1, 2010 12:45am
Quoting newyear498
Let the record hold some insight into how banks trade forex..

CP any insight into this thread.. I personally don't know a thing about banks and since you indicated some knowledge on the subject.. anyone else have some insight? I guess if you knew what banks are doing you could easily trade price in the current

http://www.forex-fxtrader.com/forum/...ade-forex.html

do you guys agree with the threads conclusion that I posted link to.. I almost would argue.. "no trade whatever the banks are doing" but hopefully...
That's what the public know how they trade. And they do trade that way. But there is still a minority group beyond your typical bank traders that you will never hear off. Forget asking about this minority group, it is a dead-end conversation.

Quoting newyear498
"I guess if you knew what banks are doing you could easily trade price in the current."
The bank in China is trying to outsmart the bank in London. The bank in Japan is trying to outsmart the bank in USA... so on and so forth.

So they say trade like the big dogs, follow the big banks... Which bank do you intend to follow? because not all of them will be a winner.

What do I think about the article?
It is a typical marketing tactic to increase credibility. They are honest with their article. Then they will sell their technical analysis education package to you.
  • #164
  • Dec 1, 2010 1:10am Dec 1, 2010 1:10am
Quoting Trader_V
This idea makes sense. But I'm not sure about the open above or below the previous close bit. I mean in an ideal situation wouldn't the open and close be equal except for time?
Hi TraderV

Sorry not to come back yesterday - got caught up with snow...

No, the open of the current candle has to be above the open of the previous candle for a long and vice versa.
  • #165
  • Dec 1, 2010 1:45am Dec 1, 2010 1:45am
CrucialPoint's take on Parrondo's Paradox

Quoting 7bit
Don't waste your time trying to make the parrondo paradox work in trading. It won't work. If it were possible then there would be an EA for it and it would be the holy grail by definition. Every hedge fund, every bank every trader would use it and (by definition) win. They would all win. This is impossible.
How about only a minority have it... not all hedge fund or bank possess it. Well, whoever has it won't milk the market dry... why would they? can you imagine the havoc it will cause?

I concur. To apply it purely won't work. To apply the theory in other form will make it work.
Example: Man wants to fly... Birds have wings and flaps them. He flaps his hands and fails... he built wings and fails. He realize that hot air rises. So he capture it in a balloon and off he flew. This breaks the confined thinking that in order to fly, one needs to have wings and feathers.

Pure Parrondo's paradox is confined thinking and applying it to trading won't work, you have to think outside of it to make it work.
================================

System A = Trend following system
System B = Range bound system

Both system has weaknesses/flaws.
System A will fail during range bound market conditions.
System B will fail during trending market conditions.

By using Parrondo's Paradox theory and applying it, you can take these 2 weaknesses and combine them to produce a positive/winning outcome.

The result is a single system that works on both trending and ranging market conditions. Instead of 2 separate systems, it is only one system.

A single hybrid system, containing the 2 different system blended into one. This hybrid system does not concern itself about the market condition because it works on both.

When a system blends on both market conditions... we go back to the conversation of this thread ---> the Hybrid system does not require history to identify a trend or a range.

Its Flaw... it still requires a human intervention to establish certain parameters for optimal result. Parameters will differ the profit %, nevertheless always a positive expectancy. It also still fails to capture the 6th market condition by 50%.

Has it been done?... of course it's been done.
Do you think you will see it?... don't be ridiculous.
How does one may come into possession of it?... only by creating it on their own.
  • #166
  • Dec 1, 2010 5:15am Dec 1, 2010 5:15am
Quoting CrucialPoint
..... does not require history to identify a trend or a range.
You might want to rephrase this bit....
  • #167
  • Dec 1, 2010 6:29am Dec 1, 2010 6:29am
Quoting CrucialPoint
Question:

If the wind is blowing north right this moment...

Do I need to concern myself whether the wind was blowing (north,south,east,west) an hour ago, 4hrs ago, a day ago, a week ago, a month ago?

yes or no?

If the wind is blowing north right this moment...

Do I need to concern myself whether the wind will be blowing the same direction for the next hour, 4hrs, day, week, month?
  • #168
  • Dec 1, 2010 7:45am Dec 1, 2010 7:45am
Quoting Delite
Hi TraderV

Sorry not to come back yesterday - got caught up with snow...

No, the open of the current candle has to be above the open of the previous candle for a long and vice versa.
Now that makes a whole lot more sense! LOL

Snow!!! I am really hoping we don't have a winter like last year. We got 30" at one shot!
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #169
  • Dec 1, 2010 8:03am Dec 1, 2010 8:03am
Quoting Trader_V
So the first chart I highlighted a 4H candle that as we can see has closed lower than it opened. But is this enough information to make a decision for trading in a direction ?
Given first of all that :

Whenever : Trader_V (and of course Crucial Point) = Quark : Empire State Building

I would like to say : the 4H candle is not existing.
The price Whenever went down - 1 tick -
No opening, no closing.

I think THAT is the Information we all need to know.

I cannot yet work anything more out of that.
Could write 1000s of words, but it is too early for sure.

I am just trying to "See" without "Looking At".
You know, like listening a Melody or saying a place in "Beatiful" without seeing each single detail.

The only question sounding somewhere in my mind is:
"...need of fast and reliable execution....need of low spread..."

but it may just be a Filter to my Growth, won't try to "chain" that in my mind.
It will just work out itself what needed...
  • #170
  • Dec 1, 2010 8:09am Dec 1, 2010 8:09am
Quoting Trader_V
Now that makes a whole lot more sense! LOL

Snow!!! I am really hoping we don't have a winter like last year. We got 30" at one shot!

Hey TraderV - good to see you back!

Yup, snow this early in the season is pretty unusual for the UK - and naturally the whole country is grinding to a halt! Can't compete with your 30" dump though! Where in the US are you?
  • #171
  • Edited 8:25am Dec 1, 2010 8:19am | Edited 8:25am
With all my respect to the Thread Owner, I would just like to excuse me if I take a bit of space and attention for a matter not exactly coerent to the Thread, even if very near:

I want to THANK Crucial Point for his posts.

Why ?

Do you know what is the True Taste of Water ?

I found out that the Answer may be out of the “logical” way to think, like seeing the beautiful black Lady turning left and right at the same moment…

Think you too about this while reading, even if you already know that.

After reading his posts “something” rang in my (and surely many other’s) head and a kind of Silence automatically felt down on my thoughts…like Snow falling down on a street...to cover every previous information and previous trace on the road.

Even if I am too in the number of them wishing to "understand" I agree with his Main Message:
“Answers ONLY arrive where is the "space" and "availability" for them.”
It sounds Physics somehow…

Ever felt the situation when you want to mention let's say the name of an actor, but it doesn't come in your mind in that moment ?

Ever felt that the name came back to your mind when you absolutely didn't think anymore on that ?

This may also sound "New Age" but Everything is repeating messages All Around for Teaching us.

One of the Points repeated is:

Do you know why Clouds exist ?

To tell us that only who will have the Knowledge and "Goku Need" (to may connect the Power to the Intelligence) to get over them will be able to see the Blue Sky and the Sun.
There is nothing bad in that, it is Nature.

For the same reason I guess that anybody arriving from any other lived planet would yet even “wish” to even “communicate” with us…

So Thank You Crucial Point and IF I may suggest only one thing (the same I will do with any reply or comments...)

"…Do not waste time in analyzing losing Trades..."

I guess that anybody understanding the following sentence will be Thankful as well as me:

Thank You first of all, Sir, because the Real Taste of Water is The Thirst !


Whenever
  • #172
  • Dec 1, 2010 8:34am Dec 1, 2010 8:34am
Quoting CrucialPoint
CrucialPoint's take on Parrondo's Paradox

Ok I am not looking to pick things apart here... Well maybe just a little. I mean you have to disect something in order to discover how the internals actully work right

Now I am not calling you out or saying you're a liar and yada yada yada, but... some of the information in this post SEEMS to (notice how I said SEEMS to for all you other folks out there ) contridict what you have stated in some of your other posts.

So peice by piece

Quoting CrucialPoint
System A = Trend following system
System B = Range bound system

Both system has weaknesses/flaws.
System A will fail during range bound market conditions.
System B will fail during trending market conditions.
Anyone who has done any kind of trading or has even the most basic understanding will recognize the strength of one is the weakness of the other. What I mean is a range system fails in a trending market and a trend following system fails in a range bound market. So each systems strength is the others weakness and vice versa.

Quoting CrucialPoint
By using Parrondo's Paradox theory and applying it, you can take these 2 weaknesses and combine them to produce a positive/winning outcome.

The result is a single system that works on both trending and ranging market conditions. Instead of 2 separate systems, it is only one system.

A single hybrid system, containing the 2 different system blended into one. This hybrid system does not concern itself about the market condition because it works on both.
Ok now the concept I have to admit is awsome and a search that I myself have done over and over and over. I even came close at one point but couldn't seem to put the pieces together. But this is where I feel that it seems to contridict some of your previous posts.

There are numerous occasions where you mention follow the trend, indicating it is a trend following system. Yet here you are saying it's a system which is a hybrid for trending and ranging markets. But that may just be the way I am interpreting it. No harm intended.




Quoting CrucialPoint
When a system blends on both market conditions... we go back to the conversation of this thread ---> the Hybrid system does not require history to identify a trend or a range..
Ok now again basing this off your previous posts conatining some charts, you talk about the 1st retracement. Well if you are taking a retracement trade you are trading history. Unless I am missing something. You had to have known where price has been in order to choose a bias or direction for the retracement trade.

Now on the other hand you posted another chart which admitidly proves your point. The chart showed a clear down trend where you only bought the market with a set of both losing and winning trades and an overall positive outcome.

Now getting back to the conversation of this thread all you need is price. If I combine the information you have shown and I have understood this correctly, trading just the price but in the direction of the overall trend (which unfortunatley does require some history) you can have a greater positive expectancy. But just trading price alone can still prodice positive results.

Quoting CrucialPoint
Its Flaw... it still requires a human intervention to establish certain parameters for optimal result. Parameters will differ the profit %, nevertheless always a positive expectancy.
Trading price in this manner leads me down a path that says yes we need to draw a line in the sand to determine a buy and sell zone. And once we do that we look for a measurement of price not just price itself to enter the market. In other words price needs to move X number of pips in Y direction for me to enter the market in the direction of the overall trend. The human intervention piece would be identifying the amount price needs to move to be considered an entry.


Quoting CrucialPoint
It also still fails to capture the 6th market condition by 50%.
I ma clueless on this one but I imagine it has to do with your data on 6 dimensional market structure. I am still researching this.

Quoting CrucialPoint
Has it been done?... of course it's been done.
Do you think you will see it?... don't be ridiculous.
How does one may come into possession of it?... only by creating it on their own.
This is just plain rude buddy. I don't mean any harm by my comment but had you worded this just a bit differently or even left it off completely others may not get so offended. I have some pretty thick skin from my 13 yrs in the military so I just shrug it off. But others can be a bit more sensitive. Have a heart for pete sake LOL

Ok now I have to do some more research
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #173
  • Dec 1, 2010 8:57am Dec 1, 2010 8:57am
Quoting Whenever
Given first of all that :

Whenever : Trader_V (and of course Crucial Point) = Quark : Empire State Building
Are you cursing at me??? LOL

Quoting Whenever
I would like to say : the 4H candle is not existing.
The price Whenever went down - 1 tick -
No opening, no closing.

I think THAT is the Information we all need to know.
You are absolutley correct! The 4H bar does not exist any more than a daily bar exists or than a 5M bar exists. Because we have been lured into relating to price in measurements of time. There really is no time involved only a measurment of the amount price has moved.

If you look back at the old tape readers and how they traded they would buy or sell based on the direction the market was moving and many points it moved.
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #174
  • Dec 1, 2010 8:59am Dec 1, 2010 8:59am
Quoting Delite
Hey TraderV - good to see you back!

Yup, snow this early in the season is pretty unusual for the UK - and naturally the whole country is grinding to a halt! Can't compete with your 30" dump though! Where in the US are you?
It's good to be back! I picked up a great trade in the E/U lsat night for a +96 pips. I know that's off topic but that's what I was up to :-)

I am on the east coast near DC. I was over in the UK in Nov of last year. I wsa traveling and flew my girlfriend out there to meet me in London for her B-day. We spent a week tooling around and such. We had a great time!
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #175
  • Dec 1, 2010 9:19am Dec 1, 2010 9:19am
Quoting Vorbis
You might want to rephrase this bit....
Why?
if u are looking at a chart with no history, how can u determine if price is trending or ranging?

Quoting Trader_V
...
some of the information in this post SEEMS to (notice how I said SEEMS to for all you other folks out there) contridict what you have stated in some of your other posts..
i think it's only natural for his posts to sound contradictory.
Why?
A. he is sharing only a part of what he knows. & i think he's going back & forth with regards to 'what am i going to share/willing to share?'
B. as listeners, it's hard to understand 'something' if that 'something' is not disclosed/discussed in its entirety. & since we are unsure/cant confirm what that 'something' is, you dont know if you already know 'it' or have an idea about 'it' or not.
for me, both points are totally understandable & expected in this scenario.

overall, CP is making people think (he must be a thinking person like me, although his IQ is much higher ; INTJ/P?) & imho, that is beneficial.
  • #176
  • Dec 1, 2010 9:33am Dec 1, 2010 9:33am
Quoting supremeChaos
i think it's only natural for his posts to sound contradictory.
Why?
A. he is sharing only a part of what he knows. & i think he's going back & forth with regards to 'what am i going to share/willing to share?'
B. as listeners, it's hard to understand 'something' if that 'something' is not disclosed/discussed in its entirety. & since we are unsure/cant confirm what that 'something' is, you dont know if you already know 'it' or have an idea about 'it' or not.
for me, both points are totally understandable & expected in this scenario.

overall, CP...
Roger that Supreme! That makes sense. I hadn't thought about it in that way previously so that does clear things a bit in my head as to why it may seem contradictory.

Nonetheless though, as you pointed out it has gotten people thinking. And here's something else for folsk to think about.

The industry number is 90% of new traders fail. As far as we know all these new traders are exposed to the same information; bar charts, candle charts, a world of indicators, chart formations like double tops and bottoms and head and shoulders. All of these things are based on differnet time frame charts from 1M to monthly. Is this where the 90% fail?

What if we saw the markets as only raw price without the measure of time???

Thanks for chiming in Supreme always a pleasure
Nothing is impossible, with a willing mind!
  • #177
  • Dec 1, 2010 9:44am Dec 1, 2010 9:44am
Quoting Trader_V
..
The industry number is 90% of new traders fail. As far as we know all these new traders are exposed to the same information; bar charts, candle charts, a world of indicators, chart formations like double tops and bottoms and head and shoulders. All of these things are based on different time frame charts from 1M to monthly. Is this where the 90% fail?
...
i firmly believe WE are getting in the way: our personality, our psychology.
imho, a 'stable' self.. a 'better'/improved self is the key to success.

Quote
What if we saw the markets as only raw price without the measure of time???
i think i know what u mean.
on a 'different' note, i think Time is an essential element in trading.


.....same here, im glad to see u posting a lot recently, Sir
  • #178
  • Dec 1, 2010 9:55am Dec 1, 2010 9:55am
Okay.

Let us assume the only information available to us is one candle. We should note the open, close, high and low values of that candle. If the next candle opens higher than the previous candle's open (and also at least equal to its close) and then breaks through the previous candle's high then is it not fair to assume we are in an uptrend?

Utilising an anecdote in Crucialpoints original thread - the weather prediction system (ie the weather today will be similar to the weather yesterday) - then is it not fair to assume that if the above criteria are met then this uptrend will continue for at least the duration of that candle.

Does that make any sense?
  • #179
  • Dec 1, 2010 10:00am Dec 1, 2010 10:00am
Quoting Delite
Okay.

Let us assume the only information available to us is one candle....
We predict the weather by looking at current weather conditions that are going on in the world to see where they are heading .. for example a storm moving east and we know its going to hit Rhode Island in a few days...

so to predict where price is going what could we look at to see where its going.. if not past price information than what other factors ?

I think there must be other ways besides past price action on the same chart to see where things are going.. but not sure what.. any ideas?
  • #180
  • Dec 1, 2010 10:02am Dec 1, 2010 10:02am
Quoting CrucialPoint
Question:

If the wind is blowing north right this moment...

Do I need to concern myself whether the wind was blowing (north,south,east,west) an hour ago, 4hrs ago, a day ago, a week ago, a month ago?

yes or no?
The question is If I need to concern myself whether the wind was blowing (N S E W) one minute ago, 30 sec ago, 10 sec ago ?
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