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  • #101
  • Nov 30, 2010 12:31pm Nov 30, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting evancds
Bluehills: Do you have a link for the Seiden webinar today? I couldn't find it at fxstreet.

Thanks.
Yeah sorry man I got the times mixed up and it was at 11am EST today. They should upload it in 24hours but the previous one wasn't recorded so who knows.
  • #102
  • Nov 30, 2010 12:37pm Nov 30, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting Porkpie
nice trades Blue. It seems the trend is still very strong that these smaller levels are easily profitable.
Thanks. I'm shorting euro until this debt/deficit situation is cleared up. Portugal and Spain will have to ask for bailouts if their bond yields continue to rise (heck, I'd dump my gov't bonds too). Spain's a pretty sizeable economy in the EU and they might drain the bailout fund but we'll see. The Euro situation is pretty predictable right now so I'm staying with my short bias.
  • #103
  • Nov 30, 2010 2:44pm Nov 30, 2010 2:44pm
Quoting Porkpie
nice trades Blue. It seems the trend is still very strong that these smaller levels are easily profitable.
Thanks for the excellent point Porkpie.

I'm going to re-iterate just so the point is not missed.

When the trend is very strong the weaker and lower levels will work for entries. The problem is that this is the case the minority of the time.

I'm much more profitable when the trend isn't so strong, because when the trend is weaker my orders are filled. When the trend is super strong price doesn't have a chance to make it up to the truly quality levels.

When price finally does decide to correct and head up to the more quality levels, it will demolish weak levels. There are stops right above weak levels as well and this fuels the fire up to the good supply levels. When price is roaring up like this it can be intimidating to short at your levels, which is anther handy factor of limit orders.
  • #104
  • Nov 30, 2010 2:47pm Nov 30, 2010 2:47pm
Quoting Bluehills
You know I think i'm sensing a common thread in this thread...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWdVRSeXXWQ
Every morn
  • #105
  • Nov 30, 2010 3:03pm Nov 30, 2010 3:03pm
Here is the dollar index. The first chart is a 4h and the second is a daily.
I highlighted (on the 4h) two volume spikes.

When you see ultra high volume you can be certain that the professional side of the market is active.

Check out the ultra high volume as price is falling into demand (weekly level). Professional money needs to buy into selling.

Next, check out the volume that we have just had (second boxed area). This could be selling. We haven't seen a volume spike like that since the pros loaded up at demand.

The daily chart shows a supply level on the dollar. Did the pros start shorting already before we've reached the clear-as-day weekly supply that is highlighted in gray just above? I would imagine that price would want to go up to the higher level before bouncing, but who knows.

This is where it helps to have time to monitor price action.
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  • #106
  • Edited 9:33am Dec 1, 2010 4:24am | Edited 9:33am
Yes well put. This is the dilema using supply and demand. But if using the weaker levels, keeping an eye on bigger picture supply/demand should keep one out of trouble in a strong trend.

The current GU hourly supply level is a case in point (5615-5645). The original price drop from that level is just ok, but the consolidation prior to return is one other clue to its weakness. But the biggest clue is that we have just bounced off a daily demand level. Taking the weaker levels close to opposing higher time frame levels is a money loser. We also have some supply coming in on DIX as you have pointed out which may or may not be a speedbump before hitting weekly levels.

Edit: Looks like the GU is shorting nicely off that level afterall. Not the best set-up though and safer to take quick profits imo.


Quoting frankkn
Thanks for the excellent point Porkpie.

I'm going to re-iterate just so the point is not missed.

When the trend is very strong the weaker and lower levels will work for entries. The problem is that this is the case the minority of the time.

I'm much more profitable when the trend isn't so strong, because when the trend is weaker my orders are filled. When the trend is super strong price doesn't have a chance to make it up to the truly quality levels.

When price finally does decide to correct and head up to the more quality...
  • #107
  • Dec 1, 2010 12:22pm Dec 1, 2010 12:22pm
Quoting frankkn
Here is the dollar index. The first chart is a 4h and the second is a daily.
I highlighted (on the 4h) two volume spikes.
Very nice. I need to find a quality USDX candlestick chart. Is that ThinkorSwim? I took a loss as I was going long USD into your supply level this morning but its all gravy. It would have been a great spot to close out my shorts. Easily avoidable so worries about that as I'll see it next time. Can't win them all!

Anyways here's the next short I'm considering. What do you guys think about this level with the USDX coming off supply?
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  • #108
  • Dec 1, 2010 1:58pm Dec 1, 2010 1:58pm
The euro came very close to hitting the weekly demand but it didn't quite get there let alone hitting any daily demand levels. So may make another run down to pick up buyers at those levels.

The GU however is clearer and has bounced off a daily demand and a small weekly level so I'll be looking for day trades long on GU at the lower time frames until we get to the 5900 area, unless we see DIX running through current demand.
  • #109
  • Dec 1, 2010 6:32pm Dec 1, 2010 6:32pm
You know you're with a good broker when you get positive slippage, most bucket shops won't ever give you positive slippage
  • #110
  • Dec 1, 2010 11:15pm Dec 1, 2010 11:15pm
Hi Frank

When you said "weaker and lower levels" do you mean s/d levels at lower timeframes before those at higher timeframes which are further away?

When you said "quality levels" do you mean s/d levels at higher timeframes? or more than that?

Am still learning. Thx.

Quoting frankkn
Thanks for the excellent point Porkpie.

I'm going to re-iterate just so the point is not missed.

When the trend is very strong the weaker and lower levels will work for entries....
  • #111
  • Dec 1, 2010 11:40pm Dec 1, 2010 11:40pm
<...clue to its weakness.> I reckon "its" referred to the 5615-5645 supply zone (i.e. the zone is weak) & not the returning price (i.e. not that the price was weak; the returning price in this case was hesitant & weak but it was one of several factors that made the supply zone weak) ?

<... just bounced off a daily demand level> I assume you were referring to the 5502 - 5536 level on 21 Sep?

Thx.

Quoting Porkpie
Yes well put. This is the dilema using supply and demand. But if using the weaker levels, keeping an eye on bigger picture supply/demand should keep one out of trouble in a strong trend.

The current GU hourly supply level is a case in point (5615-5645). The original price drop from that level is just ok, but the consolidation prior to return is one other clue to its weakness. But the biggest clue is that we have just bounced off a daily demand level. Taking the weaker levels close to opposing higher time frame levels is a money loser. We also...
  • #112
  • Dec 2, 2010 2:44am Dec 2, 2010 2:44am
Quoting CollectPIPS
<...clue to its weakness.> I reckon "its" referred to the 5615-5645 supply zone (i.e. the zone is weak) & not the returning price (i.e. not that the price was weak; the returning price in this case was hesitant & weak but it was one of several factors that made the supply zone weak) ?

<... just bounced off a daily demand level> I assume you were referring to the 5502 - 5536 level on 21 Sep?

Thx.
Yes, the level wasn't strong but still a confirmation entry candidate. And yes, considering the consolidation on its way back to the level severly reduces your risk reward as a target it wasn't a great set-up at all.

5477-5277 area is my daily demand level on GU.
  • #113
  • Dec 2, 2010 2:50am Dec 2, 2010 2:50am
Quoting CollectPIPS
Hi Frank

When you said "weaker and lower levels" do you mean s/d levels at lower timeframes before those at higher timeframes which are further away?

When you said "quality levels" do you mean s/d levels at higher timeframes? or more than that?

Am still learning. Thx.
The odds enhancers on the other thread define a supply/demand level and the scoring of each level using the odds enhancers helps to define the quality of that level. So its not about levels at different time frames but the larger time frame levels indicate our direction and we should never enter off of smaller supply into higher time frame demand and vice versa.
  • #114
  • Dec 2, 2010 4:26am Dec 2, 2010 4:26am
Quoting Porkpie
Yes, the level wasn't strong but still a confirmation entry candidate. And yes, considering the consolidation on its way back to the level severly reduces your risk reward as a target it wasn't a great set-up at all.

5477-5277 area is my daily demand level on GU.
Yes, 5277- 5477 is a major one yet to be reached. Got it. Thx.
  • #115
  • Edited 9:12am Dec 2, 2010 7:11am | Edited 9:12am
Quoting CollectPIPS
Yes, 5277- 5477 is a major one yet to be reached. Got it. Thx.
it came within a few pips of it on my platform. These levels are not an exact science but if you see a strong move away close to a level treat it as an indication of buyers getting on board and go with the higher time frame direction. Price is likely to retest that level. Who knows. I am just following my trading plan. As long as you pick quality levels on the lower time frames within the higher time frame levels you should be safe. The greater risk reward with lower time frame levels the better.

Edit: above I talked about supply/demand not being an exact science. Then you can get filled with zero DD as I just have off the 15 min GU level @1.5510 long.
  • #116
  • Dec 2, 2010 2:42pm Dec 2, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting CollectPIPS
Hi Frank

When you said "weaker and lower levels" do you mean s/d levels at lower timeframes before those at higher timeframes which are further away?
By weaker I mean the fashion in which price left the level.

By lower I mean further "south", not smaller time frames.
  • #117
  • Dec 2, 2010 2:48pm Dec 2, 2010 2:48pm
Quoting Bluehills
Very nice. I need to find a quality USDX candlestick chart. Is that ThinkorSwim? I took a loss as I was going long USD into your supply level this morning but its all gravy. It would have been a great spot to close out my shorts. Easily avoidable so worries about that as I'll see it next time. Can't win them all!

Anyways here's the next short I'm considering. What do you guys think about this level with the USDX coming off supply?

Hey Blue, I took a loss there too. It didn't feel right as there hadn't been a rally in a long time so I risked half.

Yep that's TOS
  • #118
  • Dec 2, 2010 2:50pm Dec 2, 2010 2:50pm
Quoting Porkpie
The euro came very close to hitting the weekly demand.
Thanks for bringing up another excellent point.

Time to be very careful. I'll have a look at futures volume.
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  • #119
  • Dec 2, 2010 2:53pm Dec 2, 2010 2:53pm
Here is a danger of trading with limit orders. Supply came in before I was filled, dropped like a rock, and returned to fill me. Are there any sellers left?

One of the few negative aspects to LO trading.

Edit: I checked and I actually did have an order there that was filled, but my TP was just missed.
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  • #120
  • Dec 2, 2010 3:09pm Dec 2, 2010 3:09pm
First chart is weekly euro futures, the second is weekly dollar futures.

These screen shots were taken at the CME close today (Thursday). Tomorrow we'll see how she closes.

I feel as though we could be seeing a trend change soon. I wouldn't be surprised to see a final push or two into weekly dollar supply/euro demand before the trend changes.
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