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My 30 pips Daily and my 45% Weekly Journal

  • #241
  • Nov 29, 2010 4:31am Nov 29, 2010 4:31am
Hello Journal. Its the last week of November. I am up, guns blazing and looking to make some pips. We are still bearish on the Euro. Im still holding my short position. In fact I have added to the short and Im looking to add yet again in the next few minutes. I will be adding a 3 standard lot to the trades because Im totally bearish here. Im looking at 1.3 now. In fact, I have just done that. SO we are full pledged short now. Update to follow

Update:

Short entry@ 1.31971
SL @1.3305 (107.9)
TP @ 1.3 (197.1)

Why have I gone short?

Price went back above BB MA then has closed not only below the BB MA, but also the bands. This is also supported by all the other indicators. In your case, the stoch has gone down below 50.

Exite strategy

1. SL
2. TP
3. Reversal signal.
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  • #242
  • Nov 29, 2010 8:03am Nov 29, 2010 8:03am
Quoting Machiavelli7
Hello Journal. Its the last week of November. I am up, guns blazing and looking to make some pips. We are still bearish on the Euro. Im still holding my short position. In fact I have added to the short and Im looking to add yet again in the next few minutes. I will be adding a 3 standard lot to the trades because Im totally bearish here. Im looking at 1.3 now. In fact, I have just done that. SO we are full pledged short now. Update to follow

Update:

Short entry@ 1.31971
SL @1.3305 (107.9)
TP @ 1.3 (197.1)...
Great work with the EUR trade, now looking to notch the 100 pip mark if this strength continues down. Your maturing towards larger profits is now starting to help stabilise some of the losses, keep them in check with a good R/R combined with a modest win rate and you will hopefully taste sweeter success

RT
  • #243
  • Nov 29, 2010 9:09am Nov 29, 2010 9:09am
Quoting Edonya
Hi guys/gals
It was a frustrating thing a profit turning to a loss.
I have just taken a trade on EG and one thing i have done(although dangerous is over leveraging. I have taken 2 mini lots on EG which in the real sense is equivalent to 4 minilots if it were these other pairs like USDCHF.
Entry 0.84947
SL 0.8400
TP 0.8600
Reasons for entering
1. A PB which also is a BUOB
2. Price is at 61.8 fib level
3. It is at a good support area.

I will follow it and see how it will develop.
I do not want to be a pessimist or discourage you but over levaraging is probably the number one reason why Forex traders go broke. Now :

 

  1. Do not try to make back your losses. That is one way of clouding your judgment.Always trade normally even after a loss.
  2. your trade uses leverage in excess of 1:130. That's suicidal leverage. I use a maximum of 1:30 myself.
  3. At the time of typing, if you haven't exited that trade already, I am guessing you are -$180. That's more than 50% of your account.

IMHO, you should leave your emotions at the door when you enter the trading room. Don't be in a hurry to grow the account. Let the market do that for you. I do not disagree, maybe your analysis of the market was correct, but was position sizing was awful. I hope you exited that trade.

  • #244
  • Nov 29, 2010 10:33am Nov 29, 2010 10:33am
Quoting Razor_trader
Great work with the EUR trade, now looking to notch the 100 pip mark if this strength continues down. Your maturing towards larger profits is now starting to help stabilise some of the losses, keep them in check with a good R/R combined with a modest win rate and you will hopefully taste sweeter success

RT
Although I am not a riding the trend guy, this kind of trading doesn't seem that bad. I ma doing over 100 pips on all my trades (390 pips total for today). Thank you to all the guys who proposed this modification to my trading. Lets not jump the gun though, lets see how it performs in the next couple of months.
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  • #245
  • Nov 29, 2010 1:52pm Nov 29, 2010 1:52pm
I have exited all my short trades at 2245hrs local time.( I have entered a test trade of 5 minilots short, you know, to know when the market reverses!) The market just went to bed and Im thinking of joining it, oh no, there is the El Classico. I have to watch that game.

Anyways, My account shot up a couple thousand dollars today to stand at
$16 059. I have been through this road before and I am taking great care not to mess up again. My previous account went up to over 20k but I closed out the account with only 7K after some horrendous mistakes.

Well, until around 0300hrs at the Tokyo open, good night or good day everyone!
  • #246
  • Nov 29, 2010 3:38pm Nov 29, 2010 3:38pm
Quoting Machiavelli7
Hello Journal. Its the last week of November. I am up, guns blazing and looking to make some pips. We are still bearish on the Euro. Im still holding my short position. In fact I have added to the short and Im looking to add yet again in the next few minutes. I will be adding a 3 standard lot to the trades because Im totally bearish here. Im looking at 1.3 now. In fact, I have just done that. SO we are full pledged short now. Update to follow

Update:

Short entry@ 1.31971
SL @1.3305 (107.9)
TP @ 1.3 (197.1)

Why...
hi,

sorry for my english. verry nice what you are doing.
why didn`t you take the long trade before?
  • #247
  • Nov 29, 2010 4:14pm Nov 29, 2010 4:14pm
Quoting fxbond
hi,

sorry for my english. verry nice what you are doing.
why didn`t you take the long trade before?
I was asleep at the time, my trades did not have any stops at the time due to their small volume.
  • #248
  • Edited 3:51am Nov 30, 2010 3:38am | Edited 3:51am

A lesson already learnt this week.

Yesterday I wrote very well that I was now looking at 1.3. I went short with all the ammunition I had. However, I didn't wait for my TP to be hit, why? Because a friend of mine who was with me when I was trading thought I had made too much money and should close the positions for the day. Well, after he left I actually closed the trades. I have just woken to find prices would have taken my 200 pip TP.

The reason I actually exited those trades was because I didn't want to give them back, in the long run, the opportunity cost hurts more.

Well, I am back short considering price has broken yesterday's support.

Below 1.3, Im looking to play 1.2875 and 1.2575. If a rally occurs, I'm looking to play 1.3235 and 1.3435.

The lesson:

 

  1. Don't listen to your friends who think you made a lot of money today. Stick to your trading plan.
  2. Let your exit be justified. I did not follow any of the three exit rules I outlined when entering the trade.
  3. I have never disagreed that my kind of trading is risky, really risky. The secret to success with this kind of trading is to put FEAR away. The moment you have a drop of fear in you, you'll never make it. Yesterday that emotion played a part and still is. You have to put fear way.

I am now short 2 lots at +15 pips already. The small volume trade is at +90 pips


  • #249
  • Nov 30, 2010 5:10am Nov 30, 2010 5:10am
I have made a loss today. I tried to catch the bear market but made a loss of 50 pips.(now at 14k) My systems are very clear cut. I will stay out of the market until a valid signal is generated.

I have given my Euro outlook here. I am looking for a position to re-enter the short position.

For the time being, I'm on the side lines.
  • #250
  • Edited 8:52am Nov 30, 2010 8:29am | Edited 8:52am
Price has closed below our previous low close and even gone as far as to make a new daily low. This has triggered a short trade and I am now short with a 20:1 leverage.(Conservative).

I will let these trades ride out the trend. At least i now have a previous high to refer to for the SL.

Entry short @ 1.298
SL @ 1.305
TP @ 1.265

Stop and Reverse: Close above 1.3004
  • #251
  • Nov 30, 2010 9:05am Nov 30, 2010 9:05am
Price has closed above 1.3004. I have reversed and taken a 4 lot sized long trade.

Long @ 1.30179
SL @1.2964
TP @ 1.315
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  • #252
  • Edited 9:38am Nov 30, 2010 9:21am | Edited 9:38am
Here are a few pointers to Trading CCI divergences. I got these attachments here:
Look at that chart of the GBPJPY in 2009 Jnauary on the 15 min chart. Does it look familiar?

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...8&d=1233173156.
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  • #253
  • Nov 30, 2010 11:56am Nov 30, 2010 11:56am
Quoting Machiavelli7
I do not want to be a pessimist or discourage you but over levaraging is probably the number one reason why Forex traders go broke. Now :

 

  1. Do not try to make back your losses. That is one way of clouding your judgment.Always trade normally even after a loss.
  2. your trade uses leverage in excess of 1:130. That's suicidal leverage. I use a maximum of 1:30 myself.
  3. At the time of typing, if you haven't exited that trade already, I am guessing you are -$180. That's more than 50% of your account.

IMHO,...

Hi Mach
I really appreciate your input i have been a bit busy this week and even my trading is on pause as of now may be till next week.
I will start using your 1:30 leverage although the seniors can say it is a bit high but i will start using coz it is better than the one i use.
I hope i will also one day manage other peoples account after gaining a lot of confidence.
Thank you.
  • #254
  • Nov 30, 2010 12:38pm Nov 30, 2010 12:38pm
Quoting Edonya
Hi Mach
I really appreciate your input i have been a bit busy this week and even my trading is on pause as of now may be till next week.
I will start using your 1:30 leverage although the seniors can say it is a bit high but i will start using coz it is better than the one i use.
I hope i will also one day manage other peoples account after gaining a lot of confidence.
Thank you.
I am glad to hear that you cut your losses short on your trade. My leverage is a bit high and that is something that is always at the back of my mind. It helps me to be careful in taking trades because i know that one bad trade could be the end of me. As you your account grows, you can continue to reduce the leverage.

The other day I got a very nasty email from someone who claims to be a professional trader. My reply is very simple; You don't have to agree with my method of trading to respect me. That applies to all of us. I might not agree with your trading methods, MM, position sizing or any other aspect of trading, but as professionals, let us respect each other.

My long trades are still up, doing +16 pips at the moment. Today was a silent day in the US session and I am thinking maybe the market will make up for that tomorrow.

Is it me or is the US session as slow as the Asian one?
  • #255
  • Edited 1:56am Dec 1, 2010 1:17am | Edited 1:56am
I am long the EURUSD using a leverage of 1:15. If price closes above the Daily PP, I will be tempted to add to the position.

Positions added at 1.305
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  • #256
  • Edited 6:22am Dec 1, 2010 5:54am | Edited 6:22am
Euphoria and Self-Sabotage


What happens when you start winning?



Euphoria and self-sabotage are two powerful psychological
forces that will have an extremely negative effect on your bottom line.
But, they are not forces you have to concern yourself with until you
start winning, or start winning on a consistent basis, and that's a big
problem.

When you're winning, you are least likely to concern yourself
with anything that might be a potential problem, especially something
that feels as good as euphoria. One of the primary characteristics of
euphoria is that it creates a sense of supreme confidence where the
possibility of anything going wrong is virtually inconceivable.
Conversely, errors that result from self-sabotage have their root in any
number of conflicts that traders have about deserving the money or
deserving to win.
I
t's when you're winning that you are most susceptible to making
a mistake, overtrading, putting on too large a position, violating
your rules, or generally operating as if no prudent boundaries on
your behavior are necessary. You may even go to the extreme of
thinking you are the market. However, the market rarely agrees, and
when it disagrees, you'll get hurt. The loss and the emotional pain are
usually significant. You will experience a boom, followed by the
inevitable bust.

If I were to classify traders based on the kind of results they
achieve, I would put them into three broad categories. The smallest
group, probably fewer than 10 percent of the active traders, are the
consistent winners. They have a steadily rising equity curve with relatively
minor drawdowns. The drawdowns they do experience are the
type of normal losses that any trading methodology or system incurs.
Not only have they learned how to make money, but they are no
longer susceptible to the psychological forces that cause the boom and-
bust cycle.

The next group, which consists of between 30 and 40 percent of
the active traders, are consistent losers. Their equity curves are mirror
images of the consistent winners' curves, but in the opposite
direction—many losing trades with an occasional winner. Regardless
of how long they have been trading, there's much about it that they
haven't learned. They either have illusions about the nature of trading
or are addicted to it in ways that make it virtually impossible for
them to be winners.
The largest group, the remaining 40 to 50 percent of the active
traders, are the "boom and busters." They have learned how to make
money, but they haven't learned there s a whole body of trading skills
that have to be mastered in order to keep the money they make. As a
result, their equity curves typically look like roller-coaster rides, with a
nice, steady assent into a steep dropoff, then another nice, steady assent
into another steep dropoff. The roller-coaster cycle continues on and on.
I have worked with many experienced traders who have put
together incredible winning streaks, sometimes going months without
a losing day; having fifteen or twenty winning trades in a row is
not unusual for them. But for the boom and busters, these streaks
always end the same way—in huge losses that are the result of either
euphoria or self-sabotage.

If the losses are the result of euphoria, it really doesn't matter
what form the streak takes—a number of wins in a row, a steadily
rising equity curve, or even one winning trade. Everyone seems to
have a different threshold for when overconfidence or euphoria starts
to take hold of the thinking process. However, the moment euphoria
takes hold, the trader is in deep trouble.

In a state of overconfidence or euphoria, you can't perceive any
risk because euphoria makes you believe that absolutely nothing can
go wrong. If nothing can go wrong, there's no need for rules or
boundaries to govern your behavior. So putting on a larger than usual
position is not only appealing, it's compelling.

However, as soon as you put on the larger-than-usual position,
you're in danger. The larger the position, the greater the financial impact
small fluctuations in price will have on your equity. Combine the larger than-
normal impact of a move against your position with a resolute
belief that the market will do exactly as you expect, and you have a situation
in which one tic in the opposition direction of your trade can cause
you to go into a state of "mind-freeze" and become immobilized.

When you finally do pull yourself out of it, you'll be dazed, disillusioned,
and betrayed, and you'll wonder how something like that
could have happened. In fact, you were betrayed by your own emotions.
However, if you're not aware of or don't understand the under-lying dynamics I just described, you'll have no other choice but to
blame the market..........



Mark Douglas (2000). Trading In The Zone.USArentice Hall. Pg 50-52
  • #257
  • Edited 1:31pm Dec 1, 2010 6:09am | Edited 1:31pm
Over the last one week, I have turned my demo from 20k to 80k. Wonder why that cant happen on my real account.
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  • #258
  • Dec 1, 2010 8:10am Dec 1, 2010 8:10am
Quoting Machiavelli7
Over the last one week, I have turned my demo from 20k to 80k. Wonder why that cant happen on my real account.
It can but would you really risk it that much. You already trade with your balls to the wall, demo is slightly easier in that you can risk 20% because it doesnt matter, you fail and you just reload the demo account. Live is different in that you fail and you need to refund or have investors put more money in.

I am long with you. I have executed 3 trades today (not quite you your limits) but have added a modest 17% to a small account that I have taken on the side to see what reckless endevours I can achieve. I still have those 3 positions in play, 2 are off hourly Inside bar breaks which I have taken 75% off at 1:1 and the other was a cross over which I took off 50% at the 100 pip point which equates to around 2:1 (25 pip SL). All is well for now with positions protected with BE which makes me happy.

Take care

RT
  • #259
  • Dec 1, 2010 8:13am Dec 1, 2010 8:13am
Quoting Machiavelli7
Euphoria and Self-Sabotage


What happens when you start winning?



Euphoria and self-sabotage are two powerful psychological
forces that will have an extremely negative effect on your bottom line.
But, they are not forces you have to concern yourself with until you
start winning, or start winning on a consistent basis, and that's a big
problem.

[font=&quot]When you're winning, you are least...
Good book, currently reading Disciplined trader also by Mr Douglas. So far it is ok but fells much the same as Trading in the Zone (or perhaps because I have read a few other on trading psychology).

RT
  • #260
  • Dec 1, 2010 12:52pm Dec 1, 2010 12:52pm
Quoting Razor_trader
It can but would you really risk it that much. You already trade with your balls to the wall, demo is slightly easier in that you can risk 20% because it doesn't matter, you fail and you just reload the demo account. Live is different in that you fail and you need to refund or have investors put more money in.

I am long with you. I have executed 3 trades today (not quite you your limits) but have added a modest 17% to a small account that I have taken on the side to see what reckless endeavors I can achieve. I still have those 3 positions in play,...
I wish we would be able to hide our feelings when trading; we'd make so many pips. Im starting to feel the rally is over though. In the next couple of minutes If price doesnt go any higher I might be tempted to close all long orders and go short with a tight SL at the previous high. I think this market is too bearish and any long trades are counter -trend.

I am happy you've made some pips. At least Ive recovered my losses for yesterday.

Mr Douglas has some good insights and it is always a nice read to go through his books. My favorite books are:

Trade your way to financial freedom by Dr. Van Tharp
Trading in the zone by Douglas
technical analysis of financial markets by john Murphy I think.

good books, go through them.
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