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  • #761
  • Nov 26, 2010 3:46pm Nov 26, 2010 3:46pm
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Just doing my post-weekly analysis, and you could be right about a temporary bottom forming on the euro. Looking at the rate we were dropping earlier today, I thought we'd sure hit 1.3174 or thereabouts, but we stopped at 1.32 on the dot, a few hours ago and seemed to have just not seen any further selling since then. Looking at the charts, any retrace will probably only take us to1.35/1.365 max, imho, before another fall.

Also, thinking about Goldmans and the other blokes' projections re cable, i.e. 1.7 or 1.4, looks like 1.4 could be on much sooner than any of us expected, i.e 3 more days of over 200 pips drops like we've seen this week, and we're there. Joy!

Looking to short cable from 1.577 and 1.590 if we get there, and will see how low we go next month; but if we go down to 1.49 on cable over the next week or so, rather than retrace to 1.57, then of course longs are in play for me, at least, all the way to 1.577. Don't remember the last time we did a 500 pip week on cable, but that's exactly what we've just done this week.

Hot weekend? Pleased to hear you're returning next week; I'm not sure what's going to come first at this rate, 1.4 on cable or a hot weekend in Kent. My guess is the former.

Have a great weekend all, and look forward to reading everyone's thoughts over the weekend about the week, and indeed month, ahead.


i

Quoting 45Condor

Of course, the markets may have already made up their minds, and so the question then becomes will they push the Euro up for a better price come bad news from Portugal, prior to shorting again, or will this thing just slide?

Hope all have a wonderful weekend - be it cold or hot - wherever you may be.
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  • #762
  • Nov 26, 2010 4:47pm Nov 26, 2010 4:47pm
Weekend analysis...I'm travelling come tomorrow, but took a quick this evening whilst sitting in my hotel room, alone, cold, tired and a little hungry.

I am conscious of the engulfing monthly candles on Cable and EU...

Banged three charts on for the visual. First is EU monthly - currently beleive that it is going down, but maybe not in a straight line. Second is Cable monthly, and then a daily. Again, current PA would suggest further downward momentum.

Not to ruffle the fundies too much, but with tensions in Asia - stirred or not - unsettling that region, Europe fast becoming a dead horse, and the UK committed to supplying a little of the whip to flog the dead horse with, the Dollar is looking the safest place to be at present.
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  • #763
  • Edited Nov 28, 2010 3:01am Nov 27, 2010 6:59pm | Edited Nov 28, 2010 3:01am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Welcome back - if you're back that is, and hope you had a not so freezing flight home.

Just looking at your charts (and I refuse to put my bare charts up again, as yours just really put me to shame!), on the monthly, I guess one thing that's crossed my mind today re. cable which although 'unlikely but not impossible', is if we were to stop this fall and turn north around 1.5500/35, and go to close the month above 1.5770 - i.e. just 200 pips above where we're at now (and not close as a bearish engulfing candle), then this would throw all sorts of possibilities back in the mix, which I can't even begin to jot down till we've closed that monthly candle - not a minute before or after this. (Would appreciate views on what opening time daily candle is the best for analysis, i.e. a daily candle that opens at 10pm GMT, 11pm, or 12 midnight, or 5am!). The daily candles look so different across these times, which really skews my thought process sometimes - doesn't take much to do that - but if I could get a few of your views, would appreciate this

I don't trade on the last and first day of the month so will happily wait till Wednesday night to see where we're at (last 4 Tuesday's have seen a 200 pip daily fall on cable, so don't know if we'll do the same again this Tuesday, being the last day of the month etc. unless most of the profit taking has happened on Friday...).

On the Euro, still intrigued as to why they stopped the drop at 1.3200 to the pip, and no further selling was seen for 9 hours afterward on Friday, but of course events over the weekend in the Eurozone could mean a further sell off on Monday/Tuesday so not touching this pair for now, but a monthly close above 1.368 could mean a probable test of 1.578 again before any further sell off , so alerts set there and just waiting for a clear opportunity to either get in at the bottom, or sell from the top.

Finally, my USD/CHF still hasn't hit 1.606, just fallen short by 7 pips so far, but, having closed above parity this week, won't short at 1.606 as intended as this will probably be tomorrow night post my bedtime, so will wait till Thursday, 2nd day of the new month and see where we're at then.

Probably not making any sense at all, typing with my eyes closed. Good night all.

i

Edit: Woke up with a clearer head and fresher eyes, so just also thinking of the contrarian view of course, i.e. 1.3080 on the Euro, and 1.5340 on cable before a turn - don't want to mislead anyone into thinking 'up we go'. Nope, all sorts of possibilities this week, that's why there's only 1 trading day for me this week, i.e. Thursday, then skipping NFP day as usual. Interesting week ahead again for sure.

Quoting 45Condor
Weekend analysis...I'm travelling come tomorrow, but took a quick this evening whilst sitting in my hotel room, alone, cold, tired and a little hungry.

I am conscious of the engulfing monthly candles on Cable and EU...

Banged three charts on for the visual. First is EU monthly - currently beleive that it is going down, but maybe not in a straight line. Second is Cable monthly, and then a daily. Again, current PA would suggest further downward momentum.

Not to ruffle the fundies too much, but with tensions in Asia - stirred or not...
  • #764
  • Nov 28, 2010 8:00am Nov 28, 2010 8:00am
Absolutely, and hence why I was not too keen on retaining the shorts into month end with all the nonsense occurring in Europe. In addition to this, today we have more 'secret' talks, and so who knows what will hit the market come Monday. And then yes, NFP. Better to stay out if unsure, or stick to session trading for the days.

...return home. Ahem, again took the time to enjoy the in-flight wines and cheeses. I must say, I am gaining a penchant for ice wine. Hic!

Quoting IbkA
Welcome back - if you're back that is, and hope you had a not so freezing flight home.

Just looking at your charts (and I refuse to put my bare charts up again, as yours just really put me to shame!), on the monthly, I guess one thing that's crossed my mind today re. cable which although 'unlikely but not impossible', is if we were to stop this fall and turn north around 1.5500/35, and go to close the month above 1.5770 - i.e. just 200 pips above where we're at now (and not close as a bearish engulfing candle), then this would...
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  • #765
  • Nov 28, 2010 7:03pm Nov 28, 2010 7:03pm
la-la-la

Eventually patience pays off. I think parameters are set in the market for now. The dollar only a little trouble closing the week above 80.

Aggressive traders might view any dips now as buying opportunities on the dollar.

Conservative traders might wait for a pullback and then start buying breakouts above 80.

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Just trade it:
http://www.alephbet.com/pictures/23435.jpg
  • #766
  • Nov 29, 2010 1:53am Nov 29, 2010 1:53am
Sinner, I like what you're seeing, and am just sitting here this morning watching the initial pump up for EU. Fingers on the buzzer to start loading shorts.

Not his greatest fan, but did enjoy Nigel Farage here:

Inserted Video


Edit: I might add that I am working off a 1 and 4hr chart set against a daily, should anyone think I'm scalping lower TFs.
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  • #767
  • Nov 29, 2010 4:54am Nov 29, 2010 4:54am
Quoting 45Condor
Sinner, I like what you're seeing, and am just sitting here this morning watching the initial pump up for EU. Fingers on the buzzer to start loading shorts.

Edit: I might add that I am working off a 1 and 4hr chart set against a daily, should anyone think I'm scalping lower TFs.
You are a wise one 45C, the chart is of utmost importance as always. If dollars decide to stall and reverse here then that is what they will do.

Remember Dubai Group? That news trashed markets and then it turned out: oh well nevermind (or whatever twisted logic fuelled the risk rally). Now this time PIIGS news is trashing markets, I am almost cynically waiting for the oh well, back to 1.6 for us on EURUSD.

Thank f*** for charts!

Dubai Group missed two payments a couple of weeks ago and nobody even blinked an eye.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6AD01920101114

Quote
* Dubai Group missed Oct payment on $330 mln loan -sources

* Missed profit payment on $1.5 bln Islamic loan -sources

* Dubai Group says in talks with banks over debt obligations
  • #768
  • Nov 29, 2010 7:26am Nov 29, 2010 7:26am
Quoting Stocky Monk
closed EU shorts 3925, 3755 and 3625 at 1.3625....one positon out for BE.

EU has bounced stronger than I execpted from the 50% fib of the daily rise since 13 sept. The bulls will be looking at this rise as 50% fib bounce of the overall rise and a continuation of the up move whereas the bears will be looking at this as a 38.2/50% retrace of the drop since Nov 4th....hence we will get fib wars causing plenty of chop around 3765, 3864. Im not going to be stubburn about my bias and let this argument eat my profits hence why I have banked profit and...
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=657

After re-entering EU shorts at the 38.2fib of the drop from 1.42 (3750 area) TP has finally been hit at 1.33. Im expecting us to pull back up from here and maybe even reverse. The market looks like it has been pricing in this Irish bailout data already with this fast selloff.

Key thing here is daily revresal signs....If EU does pull back above 1.33 I will remain neutral until I either see a clear break back below the previous daily swing high at 1.3310 area in which case i will be looking for new shorts with a target area of 1.2670. A clear break higher on high volume and I will be setting up longs with target of 1.42... for now I am out of all positions and will probably remain out until NFP's for longer term trades. Scalping will continue as normal.

Key Area highlighted in yellow.

Stocky
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  • #769
  • Nov 29, 2010 8:36am Nov 29, 2010 8:36am
...well, Stocky, I hope your expected retracement is correct, as this plonker here saw a beautiful setup based on trading behaviour, but was sidelined with Monday morning nonsense, and so let it go. It would have made for a beautiful scalp to cover for the rest of the week.
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  • #770
  • Nov 29, 2010 9:03am Nov 29, 2010 9:03am
Quoting 45Condor
Sinner, I like what you're seeing, and am just sitting here this morning watching the initial pump up for EU. Fingers on the buzzer to start loading shorts.

Not his greatest fan, but did enjoy Nigel Farage here:
.

I have always found it easier to take apart complex and (potentially) beautiful things than to make them. This squirt makes himself look good standing there in his enemy's camp spouting nonsense about freedom and democracy and I don't see his party well represented in the UK Parliament. Perhaps the British public, like me, fear some underlying and insidious agenda.

Part of the shame of the European Union is the the so called United Kingdom failing to back it wholeheartedly from the outset. We just wanted to cherry pick the benefits. Our country and Europe have been the centre of global conflict and greed for centuries. What a great opportunity to throw away without even trying. Whenever I travel in Europe it's blindingly obvious what they have achieved and the UK seems to be an awful grubby place when I return.

Except Buckingham, of course. Fortunately Farrago only managed 8% of the vote there. Presumably the electorate saw through his grinning facade.
Gone to a better place
  • #771
  • Nov 29, 2010 9:22am Nov 29, 2010 9:22am
Appreciate all that you say, and yes, the man strikes me as someone who grandstands somewhat in order to achieve popularity. Insidious agenda - yes, I do not rule that out, but then I do not rule that out for many others in many EU countries.

You know my feelings upon the EU, so will not discuss further.

Grubby - yes, a lot of places are thus, but so, too, in France.

Anyway, looks like price wanted to kiss that standard yellow 50 fib level. I'm betting we are pretty much done for the day.

Again, wish I had taken the short this morning...
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  • #772
  • Nov 30, 2010 1:43am Nov 30, 2010 1:43am
Some chatter on zerohedge about the falls in the Chinese markets.

I wanted to add my comment for curious minds here, what is the cause of this?

In my opinion, simple. If the EURUSD goes down, DAX generally can make macro moves up because German exports get more competitive. If you watch the Nikkei during Tokyo the EURJPY has the same effect.

We all know the Chinese maintain a pretty hard USD peg. So in essence, the forex component of their export competetiveness relies on a low USD. Big spikes in the USD basket (but especially EURUSD) might indicate a risk off sentiment for stocks overall but just as easily it might not. Chinese companies on the other hand which are overall very export oriented and operate on an extremely thin margin compared to 1st world companies can be absolutely crucified if they are unhedged or their hedges simply don't work out. Increased volatility takes a toll, if you are used to converting your overseas profits to local currency once a month and your pile at the end of the month is worth 10% less than it was halfway through the month, that is a serious unexpected dent to the bottom line.

Market showed this plain as day in the first half of 2010, when the EURUSD took its large dive from ~1.5 to ~1.2. Indices and their component stocks like SP500, DAX (and maybe FTSE if it wasn't for BP) at least held their own or made some gains. Meanwhile the SSEC tracked the EURUSD decline closely and lost ~1000pts, a full 30% decline.

To illustrate, here is the SSEC plotted against the USDX, year-to-date.

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You can see an extremely high level of negative correlation between the two instruments with the DX moves leading the index as currency impacts take a short while to work their way into profit reports and market knowledge.
  • #773
  • Nov 30, 2010 1:02pm Nov 30, 2010 1:02pm
Editorial offerings the last week or so have been many, and, frankly, given me a sore head. However, I have spent a good part of today digging around the mainstream press and elsewhere. What I really wanted to know was what interest rate was to be set for the EU/IMF loan of €85bn that Ireland has been forced to swallow. I find this bailout a little odd, as the loan was agreed to before the interest rate – which I learn is now set at 5.83% - was set, to a nation that, as far as I can ascertain, was generally solvent..ish, and didn’t want a loan – many speculate that the larger economies within Europe fuelled the panic in the markets that saw speculators ramp up the costs to Ireland in the market, and in so doing, pushed focus away from themselves. I’m not saying that Germany profited from the increased safety to be found in investing in their economy, but hey, you never know.

And so Ireland will receive from the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism some €22.5bn, likewise the IMF will contribute the same, along with a further €22.5bn to be provided by a joint effort – or should we say venture, perhaps even venture capitalist injection - from the European Financial Stability Facility and bilateral loans from the UK, Sweden and Denmark.

Of course, three times 22.5 doth not 85 make. The remainder will come from Ireland… bejesus! That is €17.5bn to be found. Lo, this will be found in the National Pension Reserve Fund. I dare say Paddy puffed a fluff off the head of his Guinness when he learnt that he will have to move onto half pints as his pension suffers, and that the kids out back had better get used to an Etch A Sketch as Granny canny afford an i-Pad no more. Of course, it is once again a tale of taxpayers covering for bankers, the latter of which will be well funded in retirement.

Part of the agreement made by Ireland is to stop all future contributions to assist Greece. Who in turn, have had the terms of their loan altered so that they now have between 7 to 11 years to repay. The original term was 3. Yep, as we all said, it will be difficult, if not impossible, for Greece to repay under the original arrangements; and so I believe that rather than risk a defaulting nation, the EU renegotiated – whilst most of the public’s eyes were focused on Ireland, and then in descending order, Portugal, Spain and Italy - and thus holds onto the dream of the union… oh, and the interest rate for the loan to Greece was increased to match that of Ireland. Both populations banjaxed – almost certainly.

Olli Rehn, European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner, noted: ‘This should now kill off any remaining doubt over Greece’s ability to repay aid.’ This kind of comment only serves to confuse even more. Olli, I have grave doubts that a higher interest rate and longer repayment schedule will benefit the recipient, and will almost definately see harsher living conditions in the years to come within Greece. So, Olli, are you saying yes, Greece will repay in full and return to a better standard of living, or no, they won’t, and that the reaction from yesterday’s moves in the markets for, well, pretty much all main EU countries was but a warning shot across the bow of a ship heading straight for the rocks?

As one member of the public was heard to say when asked on the streets of Dublin if he thought the loan was good for Ireland, his response was; ‘Go and shite.’ Succinct, are the Irish, and not to be double crossed.
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  • #774
  • Dec 2, 2010 2:43pm Dec 2, 2010 2:43pm
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Waited for the Swissy to hit the long-awaited 1.065, but left this as it happened yesterday rather than today, so only took a long on cable and euro today in line with my plan to only trade today this week (got stopped out at break-even on the euro today during that crazy swing south earlier so haven't bothered to re-enter).

Cable's only done 188 pips all week against a weekly average of 300 pips so opportunities exist tomorrow, either north or south, to complete the weekly range; of course, being NFP day, I won't touch my laptop till the dust has settled in the afternoon, and if I get stopped out at break even on my long trade opened today, will just wait to see where we end the week before starting again on Monday.

Good luck to all of you who trade the nfp.

i
  • #775
  • Dec 3, 2010 8:09am Dec 3, 2010 8:09am
Hi IbKa,

Was too chicken yesterday to take a punt on this - attached charts - but watched it form on the sidelines of my screens as I focused on Cable and Euro. Took a small loss on a Euro scalp yesterday, but have just almost rescued them - buckled with 10 pips of pressure to go - on the NFP push. So, up a couple of ton in the pips this week, and happy that I only gave back 10 from the week.

Of course, could have taken more, but been particularly cautious of keeping positions this week, and so just scalping here and there.

Good weekend to all.

PS. Cable at potential turn point on 4hr Guppy profile/fib confluence, but not touching it until next week. Well, may take a reduced lot and wider stop a little later in the day - who knows.
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  • #776
  • Dec 3, 2010 9:44am Dec 3, 2010 9:44am
Hey Guys,
Keep up the good work. I have been busy of late at work and haven't had much time. Not done so well in my trades in the last weeks but learning a lot from my mistakes and you guys.

NFP is out of the way; what next? Looking forward to the insightful analysis from the senior members.
Have a good weekend y'all.
  • #777
  • Dec 3, 2010 12:41pm Dec 3, 2010 12:41pm
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
I've had a few PMs from people once again saying 'thanks for the tip on the Swissy at this level; and I'm half peeved & conversely pleased with myself actually on this one for not taking the trade. Yep, I'd had my view on that 1.065 for a few weeks' now, but decided, after last week's slight distraction -which was mainly down to indiscipline and being a 'nosy parker', that I was going to return to my usual strict disciplined approach to trading; so when the Swissy hit 1.065 on Wednesday, being the last day of the month when I don't trade, I just left it alone. Noticed this morning, again, yesterday's daily candle close, which suggested a continuation of the fall, but being NFP day when I don't trade, I just left it.

Just holding on to my long from yesterday on cable, and will keep this open to see where we close tonight then see what happens at 1.5830 and 1.5950, and 1.6040 if we get there next week.

I'm now going back to my original plan which was always to check the weekly charts and see which pair offers the best prospects for profit. Not too keen on this whole Euro drama, for now.

What confused the living daylights out of me with the Euro is, despite signalling 1.0065 on the swissy as the point at which I'd feel okay to go long on the euro, we dropped so far on the euro without a correlating rise in the swissy (or USD/JPY), that I felt it best to just leave the Euro alone to be on the safe side. Bernanke and the other chap that spoke on Wednesday made it clear they don't want a strong $, suggesting a further rise, but there's clearly so much going on with the Eurozone saga that one can only take a day at a time with the euro for now. If we close above 1.3400 on this pair tonight, then next week will likely bring 1.368 before a drop, but I'm not even going to touch that pair with

'If' and only 'if' we've already seen the monthly low for cable, then there's prospects of 1.5375 this month, but my SL on my buy order is 'so' firmly set to break even in case we drop to test and break the monthly low next week. Not interested in being proven right, as I'm sometimes very wrong, just interested in making profit.

Ps. 50d, Please do try and put the previous weeks' experiences behind you and, as you said, learn lessons from these; that's what will make you a great trader in future. Every trader I know has taken losses at some point, so try and stay encouraged.

Keeping an eye on what they're going to do after the US lunchtime, i.e. 1.577, 1.568 or 'zilch'; but also looking to watch a replay of the epic Barca - Inter Milan La liga match; I watched it on Wednesday, and just want to go back and view again. Interestingly, I'll be watching to see over the next few weeks how Mourinho, the 'Special One' bounces back from 'that' defeat; same way I guess we need to, as traders, take our losses on the chin, learn lessons from these, and move on from there.

Have a safe and great weekend all. Snowed under in Welling, but better than being 6 foot under, so no complaints.

i







Quoting 45Condor
Hi IbKa,

Was too chicken yesterday to take a punt on this - attached charts - but watched it form on the sidelines of my screens as I focused on Cable and Euro. Took a small loss on a Euro scalp yesterday, but have just almost rescued them - buckled with 10 pips of pressure to go - on the NFP push. So, up a couple of ton in the pips this week, and happy that I only gave back 10 from the week.

Of course, could have taken more, but been particularly cautious of keeping positions this week, and so just scalping here and there.

Good weekend to...
  • #778
  • Dec 6, 2010 12:09pm Dec 6, 2010 12:09pm
I just knew when I opened the charts and watched PA this morning, that my time would be better spent elsewhere.

As it has been raining lightly all day, and a little cold, a few more logs were thrown on the fire, and I returned to a little book that I have just picked back up after a period of time.

So, today, I have been reading of Kant's separation from the arguments of Liebniz and Hume. Great stuff... no, I tell you, it is.

Okay, so it isn't that riveting, but some of the arguments could be applicable to trading psychology. One being that old minds can lapse into repose a few pages in. And so it was that I left Kant's world and entered my own. Several hours later, I wake, and find that most major instruments have ranged all day.

Let's hope that the rest of the week is a little more exciting.
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  • #779
  • Dec 7, 2010 4:51pm Dec 7, 2010 4:51pm
The circus has officially left town.

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I could write an analysis, but Bruce Krasting said everything that needs to be said:
Quote
This is a staggering move. It is a complete slap in the face of both the Fed and the Administration. It will not take many more days like today for them to told their cards. They can't fight the market. The market is saying "no" to more bad paper.
America just got a wake up call from the bond market. Not even Bernanke can stop this now.

Keep in mind, this is with the Fed in the market at least twice a week buying bonds!

As stated previously, and emphatically re-stated:


Everything is connected.
  • #780
  • Dec 14, 2010 9:58am Dec 14, 2010 9:58am
Well, thought I may as well be the first to wish all and their friends and families a nice close to the year.

I guess most of us have, or are about to wrap up the platforms for a week or so, and good for us. We have all seen the mess in the editorial, and so I'll refrain from blabbering on about it anymore this year.

If I could, I would offer all here a little drop of Cointreau from the fresh bottle recently purchased, but alas, I am alone, and so will have to savor in solitude... shss, don't tell my wife.

Not sure what the rest are doing, but I'm off skiing.

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