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  • #161
  • Feb 9, 2006 12:00pm Feb 9, 2006 12:00pm
Can anyone explain why we are considering 3pm CST as day open? I'm not getting this :-(

Thanks,
Shan
  • #162
  • Feb 9, 2006 12:09pm Feb 9, 2006 12:09pm
Quoting diallist
Hi Vegas,

I hope you are well and happy today!

Please take a look at the 1 hour chart below of the GBP/USD and let me know if my understanding of Concept 1 is correct or am I pissin' on the wrong fire hydrant.

It seems to me that Concept 1 in this case would be cause to ignore the subsequent break of the 50% line.

Thanks

Dial
Vegas's quote on VWB II
" For example, GBP/USD is at the upper fib levels and I am watching it closely. The marketopens and starts to go higher still. If it passes 30 and then 47 pips from the open, trying tosell it has a good chance [75%] of leading to a loss."

My understand of concept I is if the market moves 47 pips or beyond from open in one direction, then there is 75% probability that it would continue in that direction....We have 25% probabilty that it might go beyond 47 pips in one direction and can still make a new high or low in another direction. I think what happened today on cable is the 25% prob. Can anyone confirm or comment on this.

Thanks,
Shan

'
  • #163
  • Feb 9, 2006 12:32pm Feb 9, 2006 12:32pm
Since the price level is at the extreme low fib aren't we looking for a reversal in the up direction? So shouldn't we be looking for a new low and then a reversal signal in the up direction? I'm a little confused since we are at extreme lows and the proceeding days are down days why are we looking for a reversal in the down direction as post 159 suggests?

Vegas also stated in one of his posts that he is looking for a reversal formation? Are we looking for that formation on the daily or hourly chart?

I may be way off base here, but this stuff is a bit confusing for us newbies.
Dave If you can't swim with the sharks stay out of the water!
  • #164
  • Feb 9, 2006 12:43pm Feb 9, 2006 12:43pm
Quoting vishalshan
Can anyone explain why we are considering 3pm CST as day open? I'm not getting this :-(

Thanks,
Shan
Hi Shan,

I believe that is the open of the Asian market. From what I gather we're trying to establish the price range of the Asian market for the current day (well it's actually a few hours before the day starts at 00:00 GMT, but the Asian market opens at 2100 GMT. If I have this correct were using the Asian market price range to establish the 50% retrace level so we can look for potential reversals during the day.
Dave If you can't swim with the sharks stay out of the water!
  • #165
  • Feb 9, 2006 12:53pm Feb 9, 2006 12:53pm
Quoting vegas
wtb,
yea, you're petty close. You just have to make sure that you aren't too close to the trees that you can't see the forest. The most important thing is the reversal formation on the daily. Once that has a good probability of happening, then everything else falls in order.
Vegas, so what your saying is the the 3 concept rule has to be confirmed by the close of a daily indicating a reversal.. like the candlesticks you mentioned in the original VWB, right?

So for example were looking the GBPUSD right now, its giving us these reversal days (Dojis in the last couple of days, one might form tonight) but we haven't got the break yet. Thats what were waiting for now, to confirm the 3 concept rule, right?

Also, do you know of a way to set out MT4 to go about 3 pm CST on the daily's... meaning thats when they close?
  • #166
  • Feb 9, 2006 1:33pm Feb 9, 2006 1:33pm
Quoting vishalshan
Can anyone explain why we are considering 3pm CST as day open? I'm not getting this :-(

Thanks,
Shan
Shan and everybody,

Just to show you I'm human, I screwed up. It's 3:00 p.m. PACIFIC TIME [my time] and 5:00 p.m. CHICAGO TIME that the open takes place.

Sorry for the confusion. Glad you brought it up Shan
vegas
  • #167
  • Feb 9, 2006 1:37pm Feb 9, 2006 1:37pm
So that's central Euro midnight (23:00 GMT) then.
  • #168
  • Feb 9, 2006 1:39pm Feb 9, 2006 1:39pm
Quoting WTB
So that's central Euro midnight (23:00 GMT) then.
WTB,
yes, and it will change when we go to daylight savings time.
vegas
  • #169
  • Feb 9, 2006 1:53pm Feb 9, 2006 1:53pm
Quoting azmi
Vegas,

How do you apply VWBII when daily market is sideways, like Cable from Jan 30 to Feb 3.
azmi,
It's tough, that's why discipline is needed waiting for the reversal days. Not jumping the gun is tough to do.

Everybody,

I'm reading your posts, and many of you are placing too much emphasis on the 50% retracement rule. Yes, it's one of the most valuable tools in the arsenal, but until you get a fast move [not 1,2,3,4 pips that take 3 hours] through the area, it doesn't mean much. If you're scalping or daytrading, well that's a different story, but that's not what I'm doing.

What goes hand-in-hand with the 50% retracement rule is the formation of the daily chart out at the fib number. Is it in fact putting in a reversal day on this chart? That is the key question.

So far, in the last couple of days, Cable has been playing games with this 50% area. Breaking it by a pip or two and doing it in an agonizing crawl, only to then break hard in 5 minutes taking out the last 4 hours or so.

This is why it is so vitally important to recognize speed or momentum and then what happens next. Today, for example, we got the speed off the low, but the market has done nothing with it. It can't break the 50% retracement area with any conviction.

Taking a look at my monitor, I wonder if my machine is broken because there is hardly any price movement at all. This is hardly an exhaustion scenario.
vegas
  • #170
  • Feb 9, 2006 1:55pm Feb 9, 2006 1:55pm
Vegas,
Gracias, muchas gracias amigo! VWB document does not mention doji's as a reversal day and I believe in an earlier post you said that you don't concider doji's alone as a strong enough entry signal. Am I correct?

__________
1235813
  • #171
  • Feb 9, 2006 1:57pm Feb 9, 2006 1:57pm
Quoting Shorediver
Vegas,
Gracias, muchas gracias amigo! VWB document does not mention doji's as a reversal day and I believe in an earlier post you said that you don't concider doji's alone as a strong enough entry signal. Am I correct?

__________
1235813
shorediver,

Yes, that is correct.
vegas
  • #172
  • Feb 9, 2006 1:59pm Feb 9, 2006 1:59pm
Quoting vishalshan
Vegas's quote on VWB II
" For example, GBP/USD is at the upper fib levels and I am watching it closely. The marketopens and starts to go higher still. If it passes 30 and then 47 pips from the open, trying tosell it has a good chance [75%] of leading to a loss."

My understand of concept I is if the market moves 47 pips or beyond from open in one direction, then there is 75% probability that it would continue in that direction....We have 25% probabilty that it might go beyond 47 pips in one direction and can still make a new high or low in another direction. I think what happened today on cable is the 25% prob. Can anyone confirm or comment on this.

Thanks,
Shan

'

The way I understand the statistics, is that if GBP/USD has moved about 47 pips in one direction (higher in this case), there is a 75 percent probability that it will not move lower than 47 pips below the opening price of the day.
Because that would make the high closer to the open than the low, and there is a 25 percent probability that the high or low will be 47 pips or more below/above the open.

Bjorn
  • #173
  • Feb 9, 2006 2:02pm Feb 9, 2006 2:02pm
Everybody,

Again, I apologize for getting the times mixed up. If you're just tuning in, the open for futures is 5:00 p.m. Chicago Time. I earlier said it was 3:00 p.m. in some prior posts.

In my defense.... well, there is no defense. My staff is now asking me if I know what time it is. HAHAHA

My resonse to them is "Everybody knows there are no clocks to be found in Las Vegas".
vegas
  • #174
  • Feb 9, 2006 2:05pm Feb 9, 2006 2:05pm
Quoting bjornskinnes
The way I understand the statistics, is that if GBP/USD has moved about 47 pips in one direction (higher in this case), there is a 75 percent probability that it will not move lower than 47 pips below the opening price of the day.
Because that would make the high closer to the open than the low, and there is a 25 percent probability that the high or low will be 47 pips or more below/above the open.

Bjorn
Bjorn,
Yes, you have it right. Just remember, though, probability is a funny game. It doesn't mean you can't get 3 or 4 or 5 days in a row where it in fact does violate the open.
vegas
  • #175
  • Feb 9, 2006 2:23pm Feb 9, 2006 2:23pm
Quoting vegas
Shan and everybody,

Just to show you I'm human, I screwed up. It's 3:00 p.m. PACIFIC TIME [my time] and 5:00 p.m. CHICAGO TIME that the open takes place.

Sorry for the confusion. Glad you brought it up Shan
So it's 6pm EST!! Many thanks for answering this dump question...

I got this info on google..
This is the breakdown of OPEN Market Times for your reference:

* New York Market trade times: 8am-4pm EST
* London Market trade times: 2am-12Noon EST
* Great Britain Market trade times: 3am-11am EST
* Tokyo Market trade times: 8pm-4am EST
* Australia Market trade times: 7pm-3am EST

With daylight savings, we are shooting for 6pm EST as daily open which matches Australian market open. Am I right?

Thanks,
Shan
  • #176
  • Feb 9, 2006 2:31pm Feb 9, 2006 2:31pm
Quoting vishalshan
So it's 6pm EST!! Many thanks for answering this dump question...

I got this info on google..
This is the breakdown of OPEN Market Times for your reference:

* New York Market trade times: 8am-4pm EST
* London Market trade times: 2am-12Noon EST
* Great Britain Market trade times: 3am-11am EST
* Tokyo Market trade times: 8pm-4am EST
* Australia Market trade times: 7pm-3am EST

With daylight savings, we are shooting for 6pm EST as daily open which matches Australian market open. Am I right?

Thanks,
Shan
Hi Shan,
Do you know if those are Stock Market Times?
OR
Commodity Futures Market Times?
OR Even Better,
Forex Market Times?
  • #177
  • Edited 2:39pm Feb 9, 2006 2:32pm | Edited 2:39pm
Quoting vishalshan
So it's 6pm EST!! Many thanks for answering this dump question...

I got this info on google..
This is the breakdown of OPEN Market Times for your reference:

* New York Market trade times: 8am-4pm EST
* London Market trade times: 2am-12Noon EST
* Great Britain Market trade times: 3am-11am EST
* Tokyo Market trade times: 8pm-4am EST
* Australia Market trade times: 7pm-3am EST

With daylight savings, we are shooting for 6pm EST as daily open which matches Australian market open. Am I right?

Thanks,
Shan
Shan,
Not really a dumb question since I got it wrong.

No, you aren't correct for the current time. You are off by 1 hour. N.Y closes at 5:00 P.M. When daylight savings time hits it will be 6 p.m. N.Y..
vegas
  • #178
  • Feb 9, 2006 2:38pm Feb 9, 2006 2:38pm
Quoting Bemac
Hi Shan,
Do you know if those are Stock Market Times?
OR
Commodity Futures Market Times?
OR Even Better,
Forex Market Times?
Bemac, these are for Forex market...
  • #179
  • Feb 9, 2006 2:39pm Feb 9, 2006 2:39pm
Quoting vishalshan
Bemac, these are for Forex market...
Perfect. Thanks Shan.
  • #180
  • Feb 9, 2006 3:48pm Feb 9, 2006 3:48pm
Check out this website, special design for Forex Market. You might want to bookmark it.

http://www.worldmarkethours.com/forex/default.htm


Rex.
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