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Thinking 3D

  • #21
  • Nov 28, 2010 2:44pm Nov 28, 2010 2:44pm
Glad to hear from you. First off, so nobody gets confused, I have been trading my daily strategy for 3 years. I started trading the daily charts for a couple of reasons. 1. I only have to check them once a day. 2. Larger profits. I just recently started to trade intra-day just to try something different. Its getting colder outside so I am finding myself inside more to be honest.


Quoting FX4Newbies
Hello Brenzaj42,

Just happened to see the title of your thread....
  • #22
  • Nov 28, 2010 3:00pm Nov 28, 2010 3:00pm
Quoting brenzaj42
Glad to hear from you. First off, so nobody gets confused, I have been trading my daily strategy for 3 years. I started trading the daily charts for a couple of reasons. 1. I only have to check them once a day. 2. Larger profits. I just recently started to trade intra-day just to try something different. Its getting colder outside so I am finding myself inside more to be honest.
Okay. I did realize you have been trading dailies for 3 years. That's fine. Your reasons certainly make lots of sense. In those 3 years, I don't know if you paid attention to smaller T/Fs since you may have checked your charts once a day, or was it just about a month ago or so when you started trading your strategy intra-day.

Now, to the second question regarding volatility factors on those smaller T/Fs. Are you satisfied with your intra-day results thus far? Are you emotionally comfortable with that kind of trading? If yes, and yes, maybe you can increase your position size, with much smaller risk. Maybe you're thinking 30-50 pips...but on what T/F? Your entries will need to be as precise as possible. Don't know how much roll around you tolerated on a Daily before the price went in your favour...100 pips? The smaller the T/F, the greater the price fluctuations that you see...all of these factors matter.

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #23
  • Nov 28, 2010 3:08pm Nov 28, 2010 3:08pm
Sorry FX4Newbies, I didn't put the 3 years in bold for you. I am comfortable with the intra-day results and my emotions are in check. My whole reason for trying this was to increase my position size. Trading daily charts I used a 100 pip stop and intra-day about 10-20. I think I like the idea of closing out my position by noon and not having to pay anymore attention to it till the next day. If a currency pair is going to move in the first place, it will probably start to move between 9-1030 am est. I use a 5 min chart to trade in the direction of the intra-day trend.




Quoting FX4Newbies
Okay....
  • #24
  • Edited 3:29pm Nov 28, 2010 3:16pm | Edited 3:29pm
Quoting brenzaj42
Sorry FX4Newbies, I didn't put the 3 years in bold for you. I am comfortable with the intra-day results and my emotions are in check. My whole reason for trying this was to increase my position size. Trading daily charts I used a 100 pip stop and intra-day about 10-20. I think I like the idea of closing out my position by noon and not having to pay anymore attention to it till the next day. If a currency pair is going to move in the first place, it will probably start to move between 9-1030 am est. I use a 5 min chart to trade in the direction of...
Okay. Seems like you have sorted out those details. Now, it's about the money/risk. As was mentioned before, there is the proverbial 1-3%, no more. Some say no more than 10% at any one time in the market. Others use Money Management software to determine, based on their equity curve and trading stats (drawdowns etc.), how much capital is the optimal amount to produce the targeted result. Maybe you can feed your results into Excel for starters and do some preliminary analysis. An online search should lead you to some software options. I like the third option best, as it is a custom-made approach. An interesting read: The Trading Game: Playing by the Numbers to Make Millions by Ryan Jones.

Take care,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #25
  • Nov 28, 2010 3:23pm Nov 28, 2010 3:23pm
I don't think too much about equity curves and all of that stuff, maybe I should but I usually risk about 10% give or take. I do not have a financial background. I just follow the trends, either intra-day or long term.





Quoting FX4Newbies
Okay....
  • #26
  • Nov 28, 2010 3:27pm Nov 28, 2010 3:27pm
Quoting brenzaj42
I don't think too much about equity curves and all of that stuff, maybe I should but I usually risk about 10% give or take. I do not have a financial background. I just follow the trends, either intra-day or long term.
Well, you're already around 10%. If you go higher then you should have a pretty good reason by what you see on your chart...keeping stops tight of course. That's my 3 1/2 cents on this topic .

All the best. You don't need a financial background to benefit from the book. I think delving into such a study could be very eye-opening. Maybe you should start with, "How much do I want to make, given my present capitalization and trading ability?", versus, "How much should I put into the market?" Hope I am not misunderstanding the intent of your question by my last statement.

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #27
  • Nov 28, 2010 3:30pm Nov 28, 2010 3:30pm
Maybe I will check it out or maybe I will wait for the movie. I am not much of a reader, LOL.


Quoting FX4Newbies
Well, you're already around 10%. If you go higher then you should have a pretty good reason by what you see on your chart...keeping stops tight of course. That's my 3 1/2 cents on this topic .

All the best. You don't need a financial background to benefit from the book. I think delving into such a study could be very eye-opening.

FX4Newbies
  • #28
  • Nov 28, 2010 3:34pm Nov 28, 2010 3:34pm
Quoting brenzaj42
Maybe I will check it out or maybe I will wait for the movie. I am not much of a reader, LOL.
Maybe you can make a video recording of your Excel spreadsheet whenever you trade LOL.

Signing off now,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #29
  • Nov 28, 2010 3:42pm Nov 28, 2010 3:42pm
I guess nobody really has an opinion, any pip will do.
  • #30
  • Nov 28, 2010 3:47pm Nov 28, 2010 3:47pm
brenzaj42 are you using those same ma's to determine your weekly trend?

thx,
todd
  • #31
  • Nov 28, 2010 3:57pm Nov 28, 2010 3:57pm
Yes, I use the same moving averages



Quoting todd960960
brenzaj42 are you using those same ma's to determine your weekly trend?

thx,
todd
  • #32
  • Edited 4:13pm Nov 28, 2010 4:01pm | Edited 4:13pm
Quoting ha-pattern
Why not try shortterm (20-100 pips)?
(refers to g/u)
Quoting brenzaj42
I guess nobody really has an opinion, any pip will do.
The whole idea is to maximize the $/h, given the limits of extraction ( HFT, EA, discretionary (indicators, indicator-drawing, or drawing.))
You can investigate this yourself. Put on a zigzag on a 1' (or other) TF and see the average size of waves between big drops, minimizing in-trade drawdown on the way.

Or perhaps I misunderstand.
  • #33
  • Nov 28, 2010 4:15pm Nov 28, 2010 4:15pm
Right on, I guess I was just trying to get people's feedback on thinking 3D, a lot of people bust their butts to try and get as many pips as possible, myself included. But when you stop to think about it, if you know you can capture just a small amount each day, just make them worth more. I was just having a moment today.
  • #34
  • Nov 28, 2010 4:57pm Nov 28, 2010 4:57pm
[quote=brenzaj42;4204114]Wow, somebody has a lot of free time on their hands. I knew it was only a matter of time before someone cynical stopped in. All the quotes you posted are true but out of context so the time frames don't match but that's not my problem. quote]

problem, is your credibility
  • #35
  • Nov 28, 2010 5:05pm Nov 28, 2010 5:05pm
Really, The guy doesn't know what he is talking about and guess what, I'm not trying to sell anybody anything so I'm not sure what the problem is.



[quote=ALThau;4204426]
Quoting brenzaj42
Wow, somebody has a lot of free time on their hands. I knew it was only a matter of time before someone cynical stopped in. All the quotes you posted are true but out of context so the time frames don't match but that's not my problem. quote]

problem, is your credibility
  • #36
  • Nov 28, 2010 5:12pm Nov 28, 2010 5:12pm
I started the thread today to gain some perspective from some traders about the whole thinking 3D thing today. Hopefully some people can share their insight and we can have a civilized discussion. That's all i wanted
  • #37
  • Nov 29, 2010 4:11am Nov 29, 2010 4:11am
My bullshit detector can't take it anymore...
To cool it off, let me ask a simple question: having a risk:reward of 1:40, what exactly are you trying to maximize?

Just a few months with your exponentially profits and you wouldn't be able to have a decent fill of your order. Forget about retail brokers or Oanda, you must already be trading on an institutional platform. After another 5-6 months you'd either own the world or nobody would take the other part of your trades.

So, to answer as civilized as I can to your "3D" question: there's nothing you can optimize on that ratio because it doesn't exist in the real world for more than a very short amount of time when your curve-fitting algorithm happened to work.
  • #38
  • Nov 29, 2010 6:09am Nov 29, 2010 6:09am
Nice, a BS detector. I am sorry that I posted the amount of pips I make. I did not know I would offend so many people as I was using it as any example and basis for my question. First off, I do not get to reinvest my profits every month. Sauron , I am not trying to maximize anything. I just wanted to know if you prefer a lot of pips worth less or less pips worth more.

I think you answered my question though. You said that I am having exponential profits because of my pip total. You could also say that about someone who snags 10 pips a day. You better get your BS detector fired up because I bet nobody on here does that, right?





Quoting Sauron
My bullshit detector can't take it anymore...
To cool it off, let me ask a simple question: having a risk:reward of 1:40, what exactly are you trying to maximize?

Just a few months with your exponentially profits and you wouldn't be able to have a decent fill of your order. Forget about retail brokers or Oanda, you must already be trading on an institutional platform. After another 5-6 months you'd either own the world or nobody would take the other part of your trades.

So, to answer as civilized as I can to your "3D" question: there's nothing...
  • #39
  • Nov 29, 2010 7:31am Nov 29, 2010 7:31am
The whole point of trading is to compound as fast as possible in order to reach a balance big enough to allow you to risk a very small procent in order to make a very good living out of trading. Actually that's the idea behind every business in the world.
Anyway, it is very suprising that the most people on this forum who pretend unrealistic profits aren't compounding! They make more than 1% daily but they prefer bragging on forums instead of enjoying the time on their personal yacht.

If profitable trading will be some trivial formula based on crossing of averages plus 2 ingredients, be sure that I and others would have found it already. There are of course recurring patterns in the markets and I also know a few but they are far away from your kind of returns. I can't of course 100% dismiss that you can multiply 3-5 times your account every month but the odds against it are extremely high.

Nobody in the world enjoys these returns so the question "are you doing more?" is rather useless.
  • #40
  • Nov 29, 2010 7:43am Nov 29, 2010 7:43am
Sauron, when you say "the whole point of trading", that is to say the whole point of trading as you see it. the whole point of trading to me is not to have an office job and work 40 hours a week. I keep x amount of dollars in my account and shave off x amount to live every month. Also, you have no idea what returns I have, you know how many pips I make, there is a difference.

I am not sure why it is a crime to be a successful trader in your eyes unless you are just that jaded. I make consistently around that pip total every month and I know a couple other guys that do as well. I was not bragging as I assumed everybody on this forum makes pips. Everybody does it a little different and that is all I wanted to find out. A lot of pips or a little. I feel bad for you buddy. Hope your day gets better.


Quoting Sauron
The whole point of trading is to compound as fast as possible in order to reach a balance big enough to allow you to risk a very small procent in order to make a very good living out of trading. Actually that's the idea behind every business in the world.
Anyway, it is very suprising that the most people on this forum who pretend unrealistic profits aren't compounding! They make more than 1% daily but they prefer bragging on forums instead of enjoying the time on their personal yacht.

If profitable trading will be some trivial formula based on...
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