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The Element of Time in Trading

  • #121
  • Edited 10:05pm Nov 26, 2010 7:27pm | Edited 10:05pm
Quoting auxesis
Ai-ya Gilmore's a good read, his take on Gann squaring is mainstay with many and written in an understandable text. Cowan will give you headaches, but a different approach as he looks at the markets along similar lines except on an elliptical 3D basis.

It was mentioned earlier, you can get as deep or shallow as you want when digging into these types of analysis. One of the best traders I ever met, used basic time/price and some simple geometric analysis mixed with good money management....
I think it is good to stretch the mind, but also good to keep a balance and not lose sight of the bottom line...consistent, profitable trading. Other research endeavours are extra curricular activities in a sense with their own degree of benefit.

By the way, is there software that analyzes price action in 3-D or other dimensions? Do people trade that way, do you know?

Take care,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #122
  • Nov 26, 2010 7:50pm Nov 26, 2010 7:50pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
I think it is good to stretch the mind, but also good to keep a balance and not lose sight of the bottom line...consistently, profitable trading. Other research endeavours are extra curricular activities in a sense with their own degree of benefit.

By the way, is there software that analyzes price action in 3-D or other dimensions? Do people trade that way, do you know?

Take care,

FX4Newbies
I have never seen any software personally, but I know there's research into it. A very wise trader once told me, no one walks through a forest in a straight line less he collects many bumps and bruises on his journey......arcs or ellipses are a better way to chart

here's one mentioned here @ FF http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=434
  • #123
  • Edited 8:10pm Nov 26, 2010 7:58pm | Edited 8:10pm
Quoting auxesis
I have never seen any software personally, but I know there's research into it. A very wise trader once told me, no one walks through a forest in a straight line less he collects many bumps and bruises on his journey......arcs or ellipses are a better way to chart

here's one mentioned here @ FF http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=434
A median arc. That is somewhere out in the deep for sure. I heard Tim talk about it...rotating these forks etc. Is there a basic book or info. that can start a trader charting with arcs or ellipses? I have only experimented slightly with Fib arcs.

Thanks for taking the time to post these responses.

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #124
  • Edited 8:31pm Nov 26, 2010 8:20pm | Edited 8:31pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
A median arc. That is somewhere out in the deep for sure. I heard Tim talk about it...rotating these forks etc. Is there a basic book or info. that can start a trader charting with arcs or ellipses? I have only experimented slightly with Fib arcs.

Thanks for taking the time to post these responses.

FX4Newbies
From my library, Cowan and Jenkins deal with arcs, circles and ellipses. Brush up on your Pythagorean math when you use arcs,

A squared + B squared = C squared

C = the arc's radius.

Median arcs or median ellipse....... just like action reaction lines, if on one side of a channel/median set/you name it, price is contained by an arc or ellipse boundary then it would be safe to say that the inverse of that boundary line on the opposite side of the set would react with price? A curved line's vertex should mark a change in state, as price can not go left on the chart, The problem with all charting packages publicly available is the inability to change the orientation of the ellipse, they draw them 2 dimensional

something to think about

Time for some football, have a great weekend.
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  • #125
  • Edited 10:07pm Nov 26, 2010 8:29pm | Edited 10:07pm
Quoting auxesis
From my library, Cowan and Jenkins deal with arcs, circles and ellipses....
Enjoy football. Thanks for the trading food for thought. Glad I enjoyed Geometry in school. Just need to apply it in this context. More questions to come I am sure . "Charting packages publicly available" ...that is a whole other discussion by itself. Won't open that can of worms LOL.

Take care,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #126
  • Nov 27, 2010 1:36am Nov 27, 2010 1:36am
Intriging !! I'm gonna sit back and watch...
  • #127
  • Edited 9:24am Nov 27, 2010 4:58am | Edited 9:24am
Quoting availdollars
Intriging !! I'm gonna sit back and watch...
__________________
To fall in love with God is the greatest of romances, to seek Him the greatest adventure, to find Him the greatest human achievement. (St. Augustine)
A comment on your signature in relation to Time: To fall in love with God is the greatest of romances, to seek Him the greatest adventure, to find Him the greatest human achievement. (St. Augustine). In the context of trading, I consider Him the Holy Grail. As Larry Pesavento put it, "The goal here is not to try to predict the future or even to know what is going to happen next. No one knows that! (Well, there is One who knows, but He doesn't trade). It is not necessary to know what is going to happen in 5 days. What is necessary is to determine how much risk and profit potential is available in the next 5 days. Profitability is the name of the game". Quoted from: Fibonacci Ratios with Pattern Recognition, pg. 11.

As Pike put it in an earlier chart, "I don't know if it will be a high or low, but I do expect something to happen when price reaches the black line." The Holy Grail knows what that something is (and of course, He knows when ). Using Technical Analysis helps us determine the what so we can profit from being on the right side of the market, and the when so we can click at the opportune time to Take that Profit (T + P = Take Profit = Time + Price). The action of "taking" is always done at a specific time. Just check your Account History or trading record . It wouldn't surprise me if the stats have not been done on the collective "whens" of our trading records. I promise you, somebody believes this stuff!

Sometimes the very obvious cannot be seen because we don't look for it (or don't know how to or why we should)...that is what taking something for granted is all about. It takes another kind of mind to see these things and to believe that there is significance. Time doesn't have to fight for a place in the trading world, just like the One who doesn't trade doesn't say where He came from. Time was already there, from the very first trade, but we may have taken it for granted. Therefore, we are to establish the benefit of its existence to us in trading, and find out how we can work with it to maximize our trading potential.

I think one of the benefits of this thread will be to expand our accepted view of Technical Analysis to include the concept of Time, just as we have done with Price over the years. At one time, Technical Analysis as is so common place today, was considered taboo. There will be those who will scoff at the concept (and they may already have), but its validity in trading will continue to surface. Let's try to be open-minded within reason.

Think it will be a very enlightening thread learning about the when. Glad you have chosen to sit back and watch.

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #128
  • Nov 27, 2010 8:09am Nov 27, 2010 8:09am
Nonsense.
  • #129
  • Nov 27, 2010 8:30am Nov 27, 2010 8:30am
Quoting auxesis
I have never seen any software personally, but I know there's research into it. A very wise trader once told me, no one walks through a forest in a straight line less he collects many bumps and bruises on his journey......arcs or ellipses are a better way to chart
Hello again Auxesis,

Just thinking about your circle and explanation in Post 124. So what you are saying is that price moving outside of the ellipse represents a change in state.

Question: Why are arcs more effective than straight lines? Re: Your comment about walking through the forest in a straight line.

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #130
  • Nov 27, 2010 11:47am Nov 27, 2010 11:47am
Hi everybody
its the weekend the markets are shut.So i think a bit of light relief is in order
so on Sunday i will post Quiz Night

Pike
  • #131
  • Nov 27, 2010 2:21pm Nov 27, 2010 2:21pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Hello again Auxesis,

Just thinking about your circle and explanation in Post 124. So what you are saying is that price moving outside of the ellipse represents a change in state.

Question: Why are arcs more effective than straight lines? Re: Your comment about walking through the forest in a straight line.

FX4Newbies
There's times when you can draw a straight trend line and it represents price, but how many times have you seen price go parabolic, when lows or highs start to diverge, can you draw a parabola to show support or resistance?

Arcs measure a move where any spot along the arc is the same length from the center point, this could also be a sphere, and it can be an effective tool to gauge the length of a move when the angles don't match?

It depends on your view of the market, flat or 3D but there's alot to be said about the reflective properties of price action, remember you are charting on at least 2 or more axis. You decide.

Will post more when time permits,

regards,

a couple of simple pics to think about.
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  • #132
  • Nov 27, 2010 2:30pm Nov 27, 2010 2:30pm
Quoting auxesis
There's times when you can draw a straight trend line and it represents price, but how many times have you seen price go parabolic, when lows or highs start to diverge, can you draw a parabola to show support or resistance?

Arcs measure a move where any spot along the arc is the same length from the center point, this could also be a sphere, and it can be an effective tool to gauge the length of a move when the angles don't match?

It depends on your view of the market, flat or 3D but there's alot to be said about the reflective properties of price...
Hello again Auxesis,

A parabola can provide support and resistance. Thinking of a 5 or 8 MA on a sharp move. Problem is though, you don't have the arc ahead of price action with an MA, but after the fact, it can be seen.

The first chart reminds me of how the Fib Arcs work. I like how your second chart shows the smoothing of "tangent lines"...the trend lines. Certainly advantageous. Will ponder these dimensions some more.

Thanks,

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #133
  • Nov 27, 2010 3:16pm Nov 27, 2010 3:16pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
Hello again Auxesis,

A parabola can provide support and resistance. Thinking of a 5 or 8 MA on a sharp move. Problem is though, you don't have the arc ahead of price action with an MA, but after the fact, it can be seen.

The first chart reminds me of how the Fib Arcs work. I like how your second chart shows the smoothing of "tangent lines"...the trend lines. Certainly advantageous. Will ponder these dimensions some more.

Thanks,

FX4Newbies
IMHO........

MA's are a whole different discussion, as they are a representation of the average/mean of an historic time period. People like to use them as support/resistance which I disagree, their purpose is in the information derived from the distance price moves away or towards the MA. Best MA's are those based on a specific time period or cycle. example being a 24ma for hourly bars.

No one knows with 100% certainty where price is headed, exception being maybe a central bank, moments before intervention . What we seek is a way to structure the markets, to measure and gauge them. We look for clues.

Unlike MA's arcs, circles and such when measuring or charting support/ resistance like in a parabolic move, you can measure where price will probably run out of energy as it goes vertical, it can't fall back to the left in time so exhaustion should apex at these points?

If price is a by-product of it's previous waves, pitch forks representing sine waves, then there should be the math for the convergence of sine waves and the algo's to measure.....

If price is a by-product of it's previous waves, then wave structure is cyclical and the following structure should be able to be measured and charted in advance. Price should conform unless it's acted upon by an outside force.

If price is a by-product of it's previous waves, then waves exhibit reflective properties when acted upon. Bodies in motion stay in motion until acted upon, each action has an equal-opposite reaction.

How do we put all that to use?

Of course if you believe that the market is completely random, dismiss all the above as you're in the wrong thread.

regards
  • #134
  • Edited Nov 28, 2010 12:21am Nov 27, 2010 3:26pm | Edited Nov 28, 2010 12:21am
Quoting auxesis
IMHO........

MA's are a whole different discussion, as they are a representation of the average/mean of an historic time period....
Yes, MAs are a different story because of the way they are computed. An interesting thought though...a 24 MA on an hourly chart. That makes good sense. Will have to take a look .

I see the advantage in the arcs etc. Like you mentioned, it gives an idea ahead of time where price could change direction. The arcs will be there before.

I agree, if you think markets are random, ignore the above for sure.

Good stuff! Thanks.

FX4Newbies

P.S. Habits of the masses, though they may not be the best trading methods, will still bear out in a potentially profitable trade. Point in question: S/R at an 8 SMA for example.
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #135
  • Nov 27, 2010 5:07pm Nov 27, 2010 5:07pm
Quoting FX4Newbies
I see the advantage in the arcs etc. Like you mentioned, it gives an idea ahead of time where price could change direction. The arcs will be there before.....
FX4Newbs,

Here's a conversation I had with an old study partner, regarding the above.... it will expand on it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=231578

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...6&postcount=13

regards,
  • #136
  • Nov 27, 2010 7:11pm Nov 27, 2010 7:11pm
This is a very interesting discussion. I haven't read through the whole thread, but I would like to state my agreement with regards to 'time' as a coefficient of market movements. My system isn't based on parabolics formulae or arcs, but rather the usage of custom timeframes and moving averages. With this I'm able to somehow predict the timing of markets with much accuracy. I'll be glad to describe more if I'm along the same lines with the intention of this thread.

But this is a great thread! Keep it going!

- Is
  • #137
  • Nov 27, 2010 11:55pm Nov 27, 2010 11:55pm
Quoting auxesis
FX4Newbs,

Here's a conversation I had with an old study partner, regarding the above.... it will expand on it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=231578

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...6&postcount=13

regards,
Thanks Auxesis. Just skimmed the info. thus far. Will dig in hopefully later today before the market gets going.

FX4Newbies
Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #138
  • Nov 28, 2010 12:45am Nov 28, 2010 12:45am
Quoting auxesis
The problem with all charting packages publicly available is the inability to change the orientation of the ellipse, they draw them 2 dimensional
I was thinking the same thing this past week.

Another problem I encounter is with the fib arcs. Anytime I change the scaling of my chart (zooming in and out), the arc do no remain stationary. They either increase or decrease in size.

This is a wonderful thread!!!
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #139
  • Edited 7:41am Nov 28, 2010 1:03am | Edited 7:41am
Just warming up to swimming in the deep . Left of arrow not too bad lookin' either. Would be interesting to see how price behaves when it gets closer to the more rounded areas. Eur-Usd M-5.

FX4Newbies
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Trade what you see, not what you think or feel. Let the market come to you.
  • #140
  • Nov 28, 2010 1:40am Nov 28, 2010 1:40am
Quoting FX4Newbies
Just warming up to swimming in the deep . Left of arrow not too bad lookin' either. Would be interesting to see how price behaves when it gets closer to the more rounded areas. EU M-5.

FX4Newbies

How did you create that?
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
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