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vsa with Malcolm

  • #7,321
  • Nov 27, 2010 8:35am Nov 27, 2010 8:35am
I have always fiund gbpchf hard to trade using vsa but it seems like it may be being bought . Best thing is use a hulls on a 2 hr chart and wait for that to turn

I think the ones that are going to move the best in the coming weeks are the majors

Quoting kuroro001
What do you think ?

Attachment
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #7,322
  • Nov 27, 2010 8:39am Nov 27, 2010 8:39am
Quoting malcolmb14
Gu has some very defined s/r channels on the daily charts. I will throw up a chart later . Weekly seems to be rolling over nicely . The interesting thing is that both Dax and dj holding close to recent highs yet usd gained strength . If the indexes roll over then gu eu usdchf moves will only accelerate.

We could well be seeing a significant down moves in the gu for sure

I still use rsx on higher time frames for divergences and gu weekly has had a very strong bear div for weeks now . Last time I saw this on weekly charts was dj 14400

I am...

Mal, do you have TG with the new momentum indicators on?
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #7,323
  • Nov 27, 2010 9:28am Nov 27, 2010 9:28am
Quoting gez40
Mal, do you have TG with the new momentum indicators on?

no , those are Rob Hoffmans indies. If you put a hulls on a chart it is pretty much the same.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #7,324
  • Nov 27, 2010 9:56am Nov 27, 2010 9:56am
very interesting 30 min on Friday

Could this be sign strength for an up leg of 200 to 300 pip or just Friday profit taking ?

form vsa principles strength is there ...

form left to right
down bar uh vol next bar up ..has to be professional buying
down bar closing off lows with high vol
test ... gave three bars up
4th one a little confusing ....almost a higher test , but then with no vol in US session market just fell into lows of day.

I would call Friday a sign of strength

Just got to see how next week plays out

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart3146.gif53.png Size: 150 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart3146.gif53.png Size: 150 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #7,325
  • Nov 27, 2010 10:36am Nov 27, 2010 10:36am
I would like to ask .what is the low volume test S/R The meaning of the representative
  • #7,326
  • Nov 27, 2010 11:17am Nov 27, 2010 11:17am
agree. here's another chart showing ask-bid tick balance - yellow arrows shows selling, blue arrows show buying. interesting, but not confirmed yet and also let's not forget though that overall bias is selling.

Quoting malcolmb14
very interesting 30 min on Friday

Could this be sign strength for an up leg of 200 to 300 pip or just Friday profit taking ?

form vsa principles strength is there ...

form left to right
down bar uh vol next bar up ..has to be professional buying
down bar closing off lows with high vol
test ... gave three bars up
4th one a little confusing ....almost a higher test , but then with no vol in US session market just fell into lows of day.

I would call Friday a sign of strength

Just got to see how next week plays out

Attachment

Attachment ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR_USD+.png Size: 46 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #7,327
  • Nov 27, 2010 11:48am Nov 27, 2010 11:48am
Quoting Scrat
agree. here's another chart showing ask-bid tick balance - yellow arrows shows selling, blue arrows show buying. interesting, but not confirmed yet and also let's not forget though that overall bias is selling.
Agreed that bias is selling , I would not be buying long term just yet unless there is some basing / up move then test on the daily. However the relief moves have been 80 to 100 pip and pretty nice.

On just a 30 min chart 1.33 was broken and has not been tested yet. This is the zone I would like to get into a sell off IF there is a valid set up
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #7,328
  • Nov 27, 2010 11:54am Nov 27, 2010 11:54am
Quoting malcolmb14
very interesting 30 min on Friday

Could this be sign strength for an up leg of 200 to 300 pip or just Friday profit taking ?

form vsa principles strength is there ...

form left to right
down bar uh vol next bar up ..has to be professional buying
down bar closing off lows with high vol
test ... gave three bars up
4th one a little confusing ....almost a higher test , but then with no vol in US session market just fell into lows of day.

I would call Friday a sign of strength

Just got to see how next week plays out

Attachment ...

Mal, bit confused...nothing new, the bar marked as a test is an up bar on quite high volume, thought it had to be low vol down bar, could you explain it please.

Thanks mate

#scrub this q. just read up in MTM, should have done that first#

High volume, or high activity, shows that there is in fact selling (supply) on the mark-down . This process
is known as test

ing. You can have successful tests on low volume and other types of tests on high volume,
usually on ‘bad news‘. This not only catches stops, but shakes the market out as well, making the way
easier for higher prices. Testing is a good sign of strength (as long as you have strength in the
background). Usually, a successful test (on low volume) tells you that the market is ready to rise
immediately, whilst a higher volume test usually results in a temporary up-move, and will be subject to a
re-test of the same price area again at a later time. This action sometimes results in a “W” shape. This
pattern is sometimes referred to as a “dead cat bounce” or a “double bottom”. The “W” shape results from


the action of re-testing an area that had too much supply before.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #7,329
  • Nov 27, 2010 12:06pm Nov 27, 2010 12:06pm
right on spot as always.
1.3280/1.33 area is key to the upside. a break there would bring 1.3490 area... but we'll see next week.


Quoting malcolmb14
On just a 30 min chart 1.33 was broken and has not been tested yet. This is the zone I would like to get into a sell off IF there is a valid set up
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #7,330
  • Nov 27, 2010 12:22pm Nov 27, 2010 12:22pm
Quoting malcolmb14
Gu has some very defined s/r channels on the daily charts. I will throw up a chart later . Weekly seems to be rolling over nicely . The interesting thing is that both Dax and dj holding close to recent highs yet usd gained strength . If the indexes roll over then gu...
Things always don't correlate like they should during big moves.. during Greece I remember days where EU was falling and DOW was rising and vice versa... its all contrarian play last few years just to screw people over.

On EU Friday the best thing to do was probably get in on the test at the low and hold at BE until it rolls over... safest strategy. If it was buying you are laughing.. but hindsight is 20/20.
  • #7,331
  • Nov 27, 2010 12:25pm Nov 27, 2010 12:25pm
Quoting Scrat
right on spot as always.
1.3280/1.33 area is key to the upside. a break there would bring 1.3490 area... but we'll see next week.
Well, I think that daily chart doesn't look for upside yet...and political solution is still determining
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #7,332
  • Nov 27, 2010 12:31pm Nov 27, 2010 12:31pm
Quoting malcolmb14
very interesting 30 min on Friday

Could this be sign strength for an up leg of 200 to 300 pip or just Friday profit taking ?

form vsa principles strength is there ...

form left to right
down bar uh vol next bar up ..has to be professional buying
down bar closing off lows with high vol
test ... gave three bars up
4th one a little confusing ....almost a higher test , but then with no vol in US session market just fell into lows of day.

I would call Friday a sign of strength

Just got to see how next week plays out

Attachment

Attachment ...
A lot of profit taking this Friday that is giving signals as well. Last Fri of the month will always do this and in this case there was a US holiday as well. The escalating tensions in the Korea's will add fuel to this dollar rally.

I will be watching for ND and tests of the 3275 area.
  • #7,333
  • Nov 27, 2010 1:22pm Nov 27, 2010 1:22pm
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...l-to-1.20.html
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #7,334
  • Edited 3:27pm Nov 27, 2010 2:37pm | Edited 3:27pm
no it doesn't, and trends don't change overnight so bearish bias is here to stay for some time. but that's medium/long term.

at the same time, for short term, look where price is - lower edge of descending daily channel (i didn't mark it on my previous chart but you can easily figure that out). i would take a long on a confirmed bounce from here, with a tight stop.

Quoting mima
Well, I think that daily chart doesn't look for upside yet...and political solution is still determining
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #7,335
  • Nov 27, 2010 3:41pm Nov 27, 2010 3:41pm
but that would be too easy to happen right now wouldn't it.
lol this guy just pops out at the right time...
exactly what i was saying - time for a bounce up, and while the herd keeps shorting this pair based on several "unfavorable" reviews for e-u, guess what... smart money will wait to reload shorts until the herd won't have anymore a bearish bias.
the neverending story.

Quoting mima
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...l-to-1.20.html
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #7,336
  • Nov 27, 2010 3:56pm Nov 27, 2010 3:56pm
Quoting Scrat
but that would be too easy to happen right now wouldn't it.
lol this guy just pops out at the right time...
exactly what i was saying - time for a bounce up, and while the herd keeps shorting this pair based on several "unfavorable" reviews for e-u, guess what... smart money will wait to reload shorts until the herd won't have anymore a bearish bias.
the neverending story.
Last I checked the herd was net long... they are probably still holding out for a bounce like you expect but it may not come.. and when it dips down again the herd will buy again thinking ok now its gotta bounce... but EU/GU are trending currencies and won't give the herd a chance... just one path that I think may be likely lol
  • #7,337
  • Nov 27, 2010 4:34pm Nov 27, 2010 4:34pm
This information will help most VSAers out there. If your gonna watch a video tonight...forget Wall St., watch the one labelled 'No Demand At Market Top' in Gezs post.

Oh and Foxy,

After watching it, go back to september when I made this post and read it again. You see, I wasn't just making it all up
  • #7,338
  • Nov 27, 2010 4:41pm Nov 27, 2010 4:41pm
For tradeguider users

I have noticed the bar trend following on a 10 min chart Is very similar to a jurik moving average setting 21 on a 30 min time frame.

On chart below the trend went to red about 1,3355 , on jurik moving av on esignal it turned at 2 pip difference

so essentially while these trend bars are blue we cannot look for sells , but once they roll over to red we can look for sell opps , just another way to say trend is your friend and keep you on the right side of the market

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 10.jpg Size: 248 KB
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  • #7,339
  • Nov 27, 2010 5:04pm Nov 27, 2010 5:04pm
gu friday ... did not trade this as chose eu and es to focus on

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  • #7,340
  • Nov 27, 2010 5:35pm Nov 27, 2010 5:35pm
Quoting Intel
This information will help most VSAers out there. If your gonna watch a video tonight...forget Wall St., watch the one labelled 'No Demand At Market Top' in Gezs post.

Oh and Foxy,

After watching it, go back to september when I made this post and read it again. You see, I wasn't just making it all up
Thanks Intel!
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