Thinking Outside the Box!?! | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Fibnacci trading..Are U thinking what i'm thinking? 76 replies

BDFS - Thinking out from the Box 3 replies

Definition of Bullish Outside Engulfing and Bearish Outside Engulfing 3 replies

Thinking out of the box and The Anti-Bell Curve experiment 1 reply

Think Outside the Box 26 replies

Attachments: Thinking Outside the Box!?!
Exit Attachments

Thinking Outside the Box!?!

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jan 10, 2011 12:23pm Nov 25, 2010 10:56pm | Edited Jan 10, 2011 12:23pm
I would like to post a thread about thinking outside the box..

I mean honestly.. There must be some great ways to make high probability high profit trades in the forex market that go against the typical trader mindset..

So please bend the rules.. go against the trend.. find some weird patterns or completely insane ideas that just work and we can figure out why they work later.

Post your ideas and responses to other traders out of the box methods.. I'll start with some of mine




RULE #1: Only comment on other traders "out of the box" ideas in a manner of positive criticism.

This should be a fun discussion I'll start!


Here is a rough idea of how I view the box.. pretty much its about the majority of traders from inside out.. looking for unconventional thinking to find a new method.. yeah its very hard to get outside the box but lets see if we can find something that is outside and makes money (aka not just random, it must still have some logic.. even if the only logic is.. look at the chart it works kinda logic)

Its not a perfect model so suggestions welcome... and yeah it doesnt look like a box cuz I drew lines to line it up.. haha



PS: I am also opening the thread to any idea.. it doesn't need to be "outside the box" just some interesting thought or perspective.. I'm sick of reading "this is not outside the box..." I'm just interested in seeing some insightful ideas and perspectives at the very least
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Box Model.jpg Size: 54 KB
  • #2
  • Nov 25, 2010 10:58pm Nov 25, 2010 10:58pm
I have always been told from the traders before me to always have a good risk to reward in trading.. like a 10 pip risk for a 20 pip win..

but I have been contemplating using high probability over that method.. I have had several ideas that looked promising in back testing but I never tried them since I could not come up with a way to get better than 1:1 ratio,

but like I said a few ideas of mine are some solid trades that almost always hit my target.. its just that I'd be risking 10 pips for 5 pips.. but seems like I could get those pips 80% of the time or better

Well I thought I would ask before pursing my ideas.. Hmmm..
  • #3
  • Nov 26, 2010 12:06am Nov 26, 2010 12:06am
Quoting newyear498
I have always been told from the traders before me to always have a good risk to reward in trading.. like a 10 pip risk for a 20 pip win..

but I have been contemplating using high probability over that method.. I have had several ideas that looked promising in back testing but I never tried them since I could not come up with a way to get better than 1:1 ratio,

but like I said a few ideas of mine are some solid trades that almost always hit my target.. its just that I'd be risking 10 pips for 5 pips.. but seems like I could get those pips 80%...
Try Again - you're still in the box
Time hides Nothing
  • #4
  • Edited 12:56am Nov 26, 2010 12:52am | Edited 12:56am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Try Again - you're still in the box
lol. burn.

newyear, if you get any good ideas that are outside of the box it could very-well be you are onto something.

the rest of us noobs are stuck in the box too.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #5
  • Nov 26, 2010 1:06am Nov 26, 2010 1:06am
Ok you wanna here somed whacked out shit. A while ago I did some testing where by I turned my monitor on its side so that price moved left and right, not up and down.

I was drunk. True story
Time hides Nothing
  • #6
  • Nov 26, 2010 1:43am Nov 26, 2010 1:43am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Ok you wanna here somed whacked out shit. A while ago I did some testing where by I turned my monitor on its side so that price moved left and right, not up and down.

I was drunk. True story
I never tried this, but I agree it is totally out of the box.

So, Were you " buying left, and selling right", or the other way around!
You wont survive without preserving!!!
  • #7
  • Nov 26, 2010 9:01am Nov 26, 2010 9:01am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Ok you wanna here somed whacked out shit. A while ago I did some testing where by I turned my monitor on its side so that price moved left and right, not up and down.

I was drunk. True story
hahaha!

if you wanna make money in the markets buy right sell left damnit!
  • #8
  • Nov 26, 2010 9:05am Nov 26, 2010 9:05am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Try Again - you're still in the box
I don't think thats in the box.. the majority of people go for 1:1 or better in risk..

I know some go for high probability but its definitely not the majority of traders.. and most that go for high probability are still trading 1:1 or highly abandon by other traders who insult them for trading less than 1:1

thats my experience, anyways I will post some more ideas that are even more outside
  • #9
  • Nov 26, 2010 9:21am Nov 26, 2010 9:21am
Ok, out of the box...

I just dont understand how the hell we can trade the market based on our time.. the markets are in a whole new dimension..

you see the thing I trust most is high's and lows.. where it open and where it closed just means at that second was where price was.. it is absolutely crazy to trade this way I find..

I mean you get better results if you just wait for price to make a new higher high than see if it closes higher than the last bars close..
  • #10
  • Nov 26, 2010 9:29am Nov 26, 2010 9:29am
This I think is the biggest lie out there.. I wish we could find the source of this comment.

really so only 10% of traders are making money?

maybe they ment 90% of new traders.. but how far do you consider a trader new for..

but if there is any relation to why a majority of traders lose money its because they are all trading the same concepts like trend is your friend and when this SMA crosses you buy.. so thats why I think an outside the box idea or one that goes against the main trading rules is needed to beat the heard mindset
  • #11
  • Nov 26, 2010 9:38am Nov 26, 2010 9:38am
Also...

I think if there is a good way to trade the market it is about finding out a flaw in the human behavior when it comes to trading and milk that flaw..

if anyone has a suggestion for some human flaws and also find out how to identify them in the market that would be a good start.. then you would not need to trade with the trend, etc. you could just wait for natural human behavior to take place and profit from it

I mean the biggest overlook of the forex market or well any market for that matter in my opinion is this... (what price really means)

the current price of anything in the market is really just a compilation of what traders think are going to happen.. I mean lets use a stock for this example..

if apple is coming out with a new gadget the stock will rise up greatly until its day of release.. and then on the day of release it drops or drops shortly the day after..

because the price of the stock represents what traders expect in the future... so everyone thinks great sales for apple with its new gadget so they all buy in and when the day comes for its release all the buyer who think its going to drive the stock price up have already bought in.. so no more buyers are left to drive it any higher and it eventually comes down.

just a few more ideas
  • #12
  • Nov 26, 2010 10:31am Nov 26, 2010 10:31am
When it's about high frequency trading, think out of the box as much as you can. And then test it to see if you have a statistical edge.

And out of the box thinking doesn't mean as complicated as possible, it means as uniquely as possible but in a simple way.

When it comes to discretionary trading, think what the big guys think, but decide faster than they do in order to get the best price.
  • #13
  • Nov 26, 2010 10:39am Nov 26, 2010 10:39am
Quoting newyear498
This I think is the biggest lie out there.. I wish we could find the source of this comment.

really so only 10% of traders are making money?

maybe they ment 90% of new traders.. but how far do you consider a trader new for..

but if there is any relation to why a majority of traders lose money its because they are all trading the same concepts like trend is your friend and when this SMA crosses you buy.. so thats why I think an outside the box idea or one that goes against the main trading rules is needed to beat the heard mindset
What makes you doubt this?
  • #14
  • Nov 26, 2010 10:48am Nov 26, 2010 10:48am
Quoting tjfxtrader
What makes you doubt this?
Well for one thing recent brokers reports showed atleast 50% of traders were profitable in the market..

I don't doubt that 90% of traders there first year lose money.. I might agree with that.. I was definitely losing money for 2 years in the stock market before I figure out how not to lose money
  • #15
  • Nov 27, 2010 4:37pm Nov 27, 2010 4:37pm
Have you ever thought of letting the wind make trading decisions?

Would it be random?
  • #16
  • Nov 27, 2010 5:01pm Nov 27, 2010 5:01pm
Quoting newyear498
Also...

I think if there is a good way to trade the market it is about finding out a flaw in the human behavior when it comes to trading and milk that flaw..


Well...there is greed and there is fear.

And it's hard wired, and especialy obvious in crowd behaviour.

You can try following : every time you feel like going long, go short instead. and vice versa.
  • #17
  • Nov 27, 2010 5:06pm Nov 27, 2010 5:06pm
Quoting frankkn
Have you ever thought of letting the wind make trading decisions?

Would it be random?
I have seen coin toss strategy's be tested and they are profitable as long as you have 1:2 money management..
  • #18
  • Nov 27, 2010 5:12pm Nov 27, 2010 5:12pm
Quoting ALThau
Well...there is greed and there is fear.

And it's hard wired, and especialy obvious in crowd behaviour.

You can try following : every time you feel like going long, go short instead. and vice versa.
I agree.. actually I find most of the strategies that are profitable I have to for example.. in a long situation I am buying when the price is heading down and looks like it wont ever come back up and I feel so nervous about going long because price drop so fast but sure enough price heads back up and it works the best.. when I first started trading tho I used to swear up and down going "wtf if I just do the opposite of what I think I would be making money!" lol

but when I first started buying I would always wait for price to look like its very strong heading upwards and ofcourse thats when you buy it to high
  • #19
  • Nov 29, 2010 2:11pm Nov 29, 2010 2:11pm
Was thinking about the 1 hour marks and was thinking how every hour after the first 5 minutes of movement.. if you have a 5 minute movement of atleast 10-20 pips I bet you the rest of the hour moves that direction..

because then on the 1 hour.. 30M, 15M, 5M, and 1M it is all in the same direction so all traders would be seeing the same color bar and might have some influence esspecially if the day is in the same direction

any insight?
  • #20
  • Nov 29, 2010 3:58pm Nov 29, 2010 3:58pm
This the greatest thread on this site hands down, bar none.

As for my idea, it comes from an old book I read. The name escapes me. Here it goes: "If you had purchased $1,000 of Delta Air Lines stock one year ago, you would have $49 left. With Fannie Mae, you would have $2.50 left of the original $1,000. With AIG, you would have less than $15 left. But, if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer one year ago, drunk all of the beer, then turned in the cans for the aluminum recycling REFUND, you would have $214 cash. Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle."
0 traders viewing now