It's kind of curious...the war between price and indicators | Page 4 | Forex Factory

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It's kind of curious...the war between price and indicators

  • #61
  • Nov 24, 2010 5:19pm Nov 24, 2010 5:19pm
HLC:
there is no advantage, i just dont need to know the open

the red lines:
H + L + C/3 of the completed bar forms the red line for the next bar
you can build a strategy around this simple yet elegant formula

below is EU60m, unfolding as we speak


Quoting vx13
Do you see an advantage in it?

Oh! And the red lines? If it isn't too annoying for me to ask.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-11-25_0923.png Size: 20 KB
  • #62
  • Nov 24, 2010 5:52pm Nov 24, 2010 5:52pm
All the choices are stupid. The price vs. indicator debate is just an example of things being blown out of proportion and extremist stances being adopted which in the end do nothing to help or hurt traders.

But I will add one point.

Ed Seykota sure seemed to have made quite a bundle using only MAs, indicators etc .

So he invalidates the no indicator bs crowd.
  • #63
  • Nov 24, 2010 6:44pm Nov 24, 2010 6:44pm
Quote
95% of the time, Price will close above or below its Opening price. Less than 5% of the time it will close at its opening price

The chances that the price will close above or below its opening price is depend the chosen timeframe. The higher timeframe will definitely have a higher average range therefore the chances that the price close at its opening price is not necessary 95% but 1 / Average range.

Btw the price will have an equal probability to close either above or below its opening price.

Quote
Tomorrow's weather is similar from Today's weather.

Can we improve our odds to predict whether today's price will close above or below its opening price if we know how it closed yesterday? No I dont think so. I agree that price has memory but that memory has no impact on just 1 bar.

So, is tomorrow's candle close (Up or down) is similar from today's candle close? No it is not, it is still have an equal probability.

However, I do agree that tomorrow's volatility is similar from today's volatility because volatility tends to cluster together. If the price has gone wild today, you should expect the price will continue its wild swing tomorrow.
Just my 2 pips.
  • #64
  • Nov 24, 2010 7:04pm Nov 24, 2010 7:04pm
Quoting ForexQuant
The chances that the price will close above or below its opening price is depend the chosen timeframe. The higher timeframe will definitely have a higher average range therefore the chances that the price close at its opening price is not necessary 95% but 1 / Average range.

Btw the price will have an equal probability to close either above or below its opening price.



Can we improve our odds to predict whether today's price will close above or below its opening price if we know how it closed yesterday? No I dont think so. I agree that price...
you have taken 2 separate things and debated about their merits individually, whereas, i think the point is to combine them into 1 bigger thought process.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #65
  • Nov 24, 2010 7:24pm Nov 24, 2010 7:24pm
Quoting nubcake
you have taken 2 separate things and debated about their merits individually, whereas, i think the point is to combine them into 1 bigger thought process.
Ok. I just wanted to point out the potential flaw in seek of your elegant equation. Maybe I should quite like all other quants lurking in FF.
  • #66
  • Nov 24, 2010 7:32pm Nov 24, 2010 7:32pm
Quoting PeterE
HLC:
there is no advantage, i just dont need to know the open

the red lines:
H + L + C/3 of the completed bar forms the red line for the next bar
you can build a strategy around this simple yet elegant formula

below is EU60m, unfolding as we speak
I'm going to go over this a million times because I feel like a really huge thing is flashing right in front of me and I'm too blind to see it.

Just gimme a second!

Quoting Deusomega
All the choices are stupid. The price vs. indicator debate is just an example of things being blown out of proportion and extremist stances being adopted which in the end do nothing to help or hurt traders.

But I will add one point.

Ed Seykota sure seemed to have made quite a bundle using only MAs, indicators etc http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif.

So he invalidates the no indicator bs crowd.
This really isn't much about price vs. indicator anymore... and "the war between price and indicators" is something the admins added I guess? Because I didn't write that. I've deleted it twice and now it won't go away. I wish they would remove it because that half of the title is skewing what this thread is really about and is also scaring away people who have intelligent things to contribute.

I mean there's a reason I tried taking it off multiple times. I didn't take it off for shits and giggles.

Quoting ForexQuant
Ok. I just want to pointed the potential flaw in seek of your elegant equation. Maybe I should quite like all other quants lurking in FF.
No, no! That was great to point out and I feel like quants should speak up more!
We don't hear enough from them and TA does use a lot of math. There is no definite answer as of now so I'm still open minded to all of this. It can branch out into anything but what matters is the answer. If we hit a dead end, we'll just take a different approach.

Everyone should speak up!

Thanks, ForexQuant :]
  • #67
  • Nov 24, 2010 10:20pm Nov 24, 2010 10:20pm
The war between price and indicators is a poor choice, a deceiving choice.

The front-line in the real war being waged on a daily basis is between the factors that generate order flow, and the factors that people mistakenly believe generate order flow.

The second front in the real war is being waged between the information you can get from a chart, and the information that only appears off the chart.
Private message me for a link to my order flow website.
  • #68
  • Nov 24, 2010 10:28pm Nov 24, 2010 10:28pm
Quoting grkfx
The war between price and indicators is a poor choice, a deceiving choice.

The front-line in the real war being waged on a daily basis is between the factors that generate order flow, and the factors that people mistakenly believe generate order flow.

The second front in the real war is being waged between the information you can get from a chart, and the information that only appears off the chart.
yep.

i wonder if profitable traders could be stripped of everything they have, dumped in a room with no windows with a brand new laptop with just mt4 charts running, and still be profitable.

i believe it to be the case, but i'm no one.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #69
  • Nov 24, 2010 11:09pm Nov 24, 2010 11:09pm
Quoting vx13
"the war between price and indicators" is something the admins added I guess? Because I didn't write that. I've deleted it twice and now it won't go away. I wish they would remove it because that half of the title is skewing what this thread is really about and is also scaring away people who have intelligent things to contribute. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...ot_talking.gif

I mean there's a reason I tried taking it off multiple times. I didn't take it off for shits and giggles.
A title, by definition, is something that should sum up the content, helping the browser decide whether or not it's something he wants to read without having to read the whole thing. "It's kind of curious..." is not really a title.

Quoting ForexQuant
The chances that the price will close above or below its opening price is depend the chosen timeframe. The higher timeframe will definitely have a higher average range therefore the chances that the price close at its opening price is not necessary 95% but 1 / Average range.

Btw the price will have an equal probability to close either above or below its opening price.

Can we improve our odds to predict whether today's price will close above or below its opening price if we know how it closed yesterday? No I dont think so.
Spot on my fellow quant!
  • #70
  • Nov 24, 2010 11:23pm Nov 24, 2010 11:23pm
Quoting Marv
A title, by definition, is something that should sum up the content, helping the browser decide whether or not it's something he wants to read without having to read the whole thing. "It's kind of curious..." is not really a title.
That being said, a "war between price and indicators" is worse. Not only does it not sum up what this thread is about and where it is going, it misleads browsers. It misleads them away with a title like that. A title I can apparently no longer change.

If I were to rate titles, I would give my original title a 0 and the new title a -1. The 1 goes to a title that does as you said - fit the definition of a title. Nothing I can do about it now I guess.
  • #71
  • Nov 25, 2010 1:44am Nov 25, 2010 1:44am
Quoting Deusomega
All the choices are stupid. The price vs. indicator debate is just an example of things being blown out of proportion and extremist stances being adopted which in the end do nothing to help or hurt traders.

But I will add one point.

Ed Seykota sure seemed to have made quite a bundle using only MAs, indicators etc .

So he invalidates the no indicator bs crowd.
Agreed.

And just to add fuel to the masturbatory conflagration here's something I do and it works just fine.

I don't sell above the daily open nor do I buy below it. No matter what.

And I use a MA and a detrend oscillator.

And I've been trading OPM for longer than most of you have had a real account.
  • #72
  • Nov 25, 2010 1:57am Nov 25, 2010 1:57am
Quoting Dopey
Agreed.

And just to add fuel to the masturbatory conflagration here's something I do and it works just fine.

I don't sell above the daily open nor do I buy below it. No matter what.

And I use a MA and a detrend oscillator.

And I've been trading OPM for longer than most of you have had a real account.

Midnight GMT? Daily rollover - 5pm EST? London Open? Which do you use?
  • #73
  • Nov 25, 2010 2:03am Nov 25, 2010 2:03am
Quoting Dopey
Agreed.

And just to add fuel to the masturbatory conflagration here's something I do and it works just fine.

I don't sell above the daily open nor do I buy below it. No matter what.

And I use a MA and a detrend oscillator.

And I've been trading OPM for longer than most of you have had a real account.
I think it's the unchangeable title that has people stopping by and talking about indicators vs. price

I do hope the price history discussion does pick up but nonetheless, this is actually some real valuable info, Dopey, so thank you very much.

Being an indicator guy, myself, this is actually a kind of thing that gives me hope.

I'm still going to delve as deep as I can with this whole history-less trading but this makes me good knowing indicators are still profitable somewhere in the world.

Thanks!

Quoting Delite
Midnight GMT? Daily rollover - 5pm EST? London Open? Which do you use?
I believe he means the current daily candle or current D1 candle. Which is brilliant I should say.
  • #74
  • Nov 25, 2010 2:35am Nov 25, 2010 2:35am
Quoting Fx chartist
Do you see what I'm seeing in my 1M chart ... ? No? then forget it!
So i guess you are the only one that see's a buying or selling opportunity and the market magically moves in your favor. It's nice to be you mate.
My trades are 100% profitable 65% of the time!
  • #75
  • Nov 25, 2010 2:40am Nov 25, 2010 2:40am
Quoting vx13
I believe he means the current daily candle or current D1 candle. Which is brilliant I should say.
Okay, does it then matter if that value differs depending upon where you live? Do you not need a less arbitrary value eg daily rollover or session open?
  • #76
  • Nov 25, 2010 11:15am Nov 25, 2010 11:15am
Quoting Delite
Okay, does it then matter if that value differs depending upon where you live? Do you not need a less arbitrary value eg daily rollover or session open?
In my experience, a daily candle isn't arbitrary. Although brokers have differing timesets, the only difference that makes is the times at the bottom of your chart on the x-axis and the times on your statement of when your orders were filled.

Although my broker's offset is GMT+3, a new daily candle isn't formed until the closing bell of the NY session as it does on what I believe to be all brokers.

That's why people can sell signals or compare signals on FF. Because our feeds are more or less the same.

Correct me if I'm wrong xD
  • #77
  • Nov 25, 2010 11:34am Nov 25, 2010 11:34am
Quoting vx13
In my experience, a daily candle isn't arbitrary. Although brokers have differing timesets, the only difference that makes is the times at the bottom of your chart on the x-axis and the times on your statement of when your orders were filled.

Although my broker's offset is GMT+3, a new daily candle isn't formed until the closing bell of the NY session as it does on what I believe to be all brokers.

That's why people can sell signals or compare signals on FF. Because our feeds are more or less the same.

Correct me if I'm wrong xD
Most candle/bar opens/closes are arbitrary prices - i.e. they just show where price happened to be on the hour mark, nothing real opened or closed and thus they are not any more significant than where price happened to be at any random time.

As far as dailies go, I compared Oanda to Interactive Brokers and their daily candles open ~6 hours apart.
  • #78
  • Nov 25, 2010 1:01pm Nov 25, 2010 1:01pm
Quoting eurotrash
Most candle/bar opens/closes are arbitrary prices - i.e. they just show where price happened to be on the hour mark, nothing real opened or closed and thus they are not any more significant than where price happened to be at any random time.

As far as dailies go, I compared Oanda to Interactive Brokers and their daily candles open ~6 hours apart.
Really?
That sounds odd to me. So at the market open after the weekend, Oanda will have a daily open and IB won't open it's door's to trader's until about six hours later?

I always had it in my head that the second the Sydney session opened, the markets were open for everyone to trade and a daily open was made and y'know... it'd cycle like that every 24 hours until the end of Friday's New York session.

Well that's some interesting info.

Btw, John1's stuff is interesting! Haven't finished it all but it's a great read. Thanks, Eurotrash!
  • #79
  • Nov 25, 2010 1:43pm Nov 25, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting vx13
Really?
That sounds odd to me. So at the market open after the weekend, Oanda will have a daily open and IB won't open it's door's to trader's until about six hours later?

I always had it in my head that the second the Sydney session opened, the markets were open for everyone to trade and a daily open was made and y'know... it'd cycle like that every 24 hours until the end of Friday's New York session.
Oanda opens the earliest of any dealer I know of at the weekend, generally around 18:00 GMT on Sunday though sometimes a bit later, while IB opens ~22:00-15 GMT. IB's weekday daily candle opens at the same time, 22:15 GMT, while Oanda's normal weekday candle starts at 04:00 GMT, which is weird because if I go to the hourly candle I can see their vertical line marking a new day starting at 00:00, but if I change it to a daily then the opening price is from 04:00. Even if it were 00:00 it still would be different from IB. My MT4 chart (demo only) dailies open at Sydney.
  • #80
  • Nov 26, 2010 6:53am Nov 26, 2010 6:53am
Geez, I mention something simple and people start complicating matters. I believe that most traders make things way too difficult for themselves. It has to do with the belief that trading must be hard, that there must be some secret(s) that need to be cracked. This forum is full of people making trading into much more than it needs to be.

State the problem like this:

I want to draw a line to demarcate the end of yesterday and the beginning of today. I know that if I look at 10 brokers' charts that I'll probably see at least 5 different times being used for the start of the day. I need to find a simple, possibly elegantly simple, solution for this.

So what would it be?

For what it's worth, I'll give a vouch to the first two people who pm the correct answer. (I'm not trying to cheapen something that is meaningless, that would be impossible).
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