It's kind of curious...the war between price and indicators
I strongly believe that PA is hyped here on FF, and that indicators are down-talked in many cases. Success in trading comes from how you use signals, rather than what signals you use.
Good discussions, and some good contributions (I'm a fan of 7Bit's current work)...
Can we use this? -
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...06&postcount=1
with-
95% of the time, Price will close above or below its Opening price. Less than 5% of the time it will close at its opening price.
but perhaps use the Open Price (of our time frame or session, whatever that may be) instead of S/R level as Spectre suggested?
A somewhat trend following approach...but only based upon what is happening now... compared to that...
The rabbit hole is far deeper depending on your knowledge and experience about the markets.
Keep going down the rabbit hole, you are on the right trail... http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...im/winking.gif
When you get to the end of the hole, I will never judge you whether you would want to share it to the world. But don't presume what you intend to do because you are not there yet. Once you get there, you will meet a great morale dilemma... And I know, you too will act accordingly. The pioneers...
It may well be that 'PA is hyped' because we are witnessing something called survivorship bias.
From Wikipedia:
Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that "survived" some process and inadvertently overlooking those that didn't because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to false conclusions in several different ways.
Let me explain. With the above I'm trying to say that price action is not necessarily hyped here, but the...
5 years of looking at support and resistance, I am left with one truth to believe: For every number of charts that bounce of S/R, I can show you the same number of charts that broke through S/R without any exhaustion. Even Nostradamous won't be able to tell you what price will do at S/R.
Support/Resistance are like traffic lights. Heading towards a traffic light does not guarantee if you will arrive at the green or red lights. You see, I couldn't care less if it will bounce or break through S/R....
Price open, price doesn't move up nor down, price close.... it looks like this ( - ) I love your sarcasm by the way
I guess you're not ready yet.
I'll accept your challenge,... but you won't be able to afford it http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif
I don't know you, I'm just challenging this whole thing. I've seen such "clue games" before, and they add nothing except attract attention to the author)As for problem one...
I was assuming that was already included in the "less than 5%" part, hence my asking.As for problem two, it goes back to my post above.
But that's just a thought on how to make use of the idea that the whole market opening and closing thing.
you don't have to predict anything at all. Prediction is futile
...
In trading what we need is a trading edge and that edge will tell us the % of times that price did one thing over another based on it's historical precedent over a large sample of times it set-up in the past, across all market conditions.
i believe the point of this is to ensure one doesn't keep selling the bottom and buying the top... of a range... that goes nowhere. it's to stop you trading chop on the wrong side consistently which is easy enough to do if you aren't paying any attention.
If you accurately knew (with enough consistency) where the "range" is, where the "bottom", the "top", the "wrong side" and the "right side" is in terms of price (relative to past price), then well, you don't need any of this advice in the first place.
It's easy to say "buy low and sell high" and whatnot, but let's see you actually quantify that for us, thus helping everybody's trading instead of making generic statements and throwing "clues" to the holy grail, then saying "you're not ready" when we don't get it.
"I dare anyone on this entire planet to prove this observation wrong; 95% of the time, Price will close above or below its Opening price. Less than 5% of the time it will close at its opening price. This is where the pot of gold are buried."
But there was one code which was the winner... It produced a more consistent result and it out-classed all the other codes in performance. The result of the code produced way above the median, giving good reliability, but... it wasn't 100% correct. It was more of like 60%-70% correct, while the rest of the codes were producing only 10%-35%.
To the everyone's surprise it wasn't a complex code... It was a simple code, nothing more... Actually, the code contained only 1 line of coding:
Code:
"Tomorrow's weather is similar from Today's weather."...
Alright thanks.
I haven't done any analysis to verify these percentages but they seem like believable estimates (i.e. nothing strange about them). The problem lies in the exploitability though.
Either there is enough exploitable information or there just isn't, it's as simple as that. In the case of this statement there isn't.
The same with the "buy hemisphere" and "sell hemisphere" thing. These things are like those sayings "buy low and sell...
then you don't need any advise at all and should just swim in ya money pool. for most of us we can not predict anything. not the start of a trend, not the end of a trend, not the start of a range, not the end of a range. *shrug*
edit : the above sounds a bit rude when i read it back. isn't meant to be. just my internal dialogue
after 6.5 years i wouldn't be giving away too much either. i'd rather watch others figure it all out, or not figure it out. where's the fun in spending 6.5 years to just give all that hard work away?
the...
I don’t wish to give too much time to this, but some musings re CPs quotes below:
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1] if you know that X is 95% probable then that's a potentially interesting stat re trading
2] the next step I suspect, would be to determine if the next bars close is more likely to be higher than the previous, or lower
3] i speculate this is where the “elegant formula” comes in, it answers number 2]
4] you need to know the formula, and apparently it's a simple one...........but it’s only simple...
hah, you want me to fart a unicorn? dude!!!!
and the doji with no open was explained one or two posts after the pic was posted... it's a HLC bar (notice no O - for open) EDIT : as in, his charting software gives the option of showing HLC bars, whereas metatrader gives only OHLC.
that's just a software option, create HLC or OHLC
