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Silent Service Method

  • #11,321
  • Nov 22, 2010 4:47am Nov 22, 2010 4:47am
Quoting clockwork71
Looks like the Irish finally asked for the handout.

This can make the EUR/USD strong for a minute.....there will be a knee jerk reaction - you can bet on that. The truth is - is it a real move?????? We don't know, but only time can tell.

Notice yet again.....there was a signal beforehand. The weekly pinbar is no accident. Damn, I wish I knew the right people!
Hmm, I guess I would rather be short EUR/GBP (i think you already are?) Since the risk of failed Irish banks affecting the UK economy (they are heavily linked) has now been significantly reduced, whereas the Eurozone as a whole still have Portugal Spain and Italy potentially requiring bailouts (or at least providing instability in general) Maybe I'm being too simplistic, I'm far more comfortable with technicals
  • #11,322
  • Nov 22, 2010 10:15am Nov 22, 2010 10:15am
Quoting stewrigh
4x,

To summarise, if I may, I think what you are saying is 'if it's in the news, its in the price' lol


Don't give 4x any static. His A.D.D. might be as bad as mine. lol
  • #11,323
  • Nov 22, 2010 10:17am Nov 22, 2010 10:17am
Quoting Jonnyislost
Hmm, I guess I would rather be short EUR/GBP (i think you already are?) Since the risk of failed Irish banks affecting the UK economy (they are heavily linked) has now been significantly reduced, whereas the Eurozone as a whole still have Portugal Spain and Italy potentially requiring bailouts (or at least providing instability in general) Maybe I'm being too simplistic, I'm far more comfortable with technicals

Agreed - which is why I base 90% of my trades on technicals, and a little fundies for good measure. It should be noted that the fundies have to be simple - because I am. I don't like thinking too hard. ;-)

Attached chart of my trade.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.png Size: 34 KB
  • #11,324
  • Nov 22, 2010 10:19am Nov 22, 2010 10:19am
Quoting 4xAddict
I think that fundamentals can be beneficial however only when used in conjunction with a solid technical analysis on a longer time frame - enter the Silent Service method

Sure Warren Buffet may have made a literal fortune off fundamental analysis however the average FX investor does not have actual access to the "company account" of the entire FX market. These days it is used as much as a geopolitical financial weapon on a global scale as it is for conducting international commerce. I bet Warren Buffet doesn't speculate in FX for this very...
This is put very well, ADD comment or not.

I agree with the longer-term and fundamentals lining up - then you have something. Maybe I should have stressed that a bit more.

As for Buffet - it's easy to hold onto longer term no brainer trades like he does with that kind of backing. For example, Citi. It's not going under, the government has made that painfully obvious. I currently own 500 shares. I bet Warren could hold a few more than that in the mean time.

Chris
  • #11,325
  • Nov 23, 2010 5:58am Nov 23, 2010 5:58am
I am currently watching this chart for two reasons:

A possible trade, and dollar strength....

Since silver is a "precious" metal, quite often it will show USD strength or weakness, much like gold will.

On the technical side, we have had a recent high put in, tested the trend line and it held. However, it's not uncommon for that to happen, and then a lower high gets put in before the trend line break. I am still waiting to see if this happens of course, but it looks very possible at the moment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: silver.png Size: 32 KB
  • #11,326
  • Nov 23, 2010 6:09am Nov 23, 2010 6:09am
Good example of a "Sucker Pin" in lean hogs...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: suckerpin.png Size: 34 KB
  • #11,327
  • Nov 23, 2010 1:54pm Nov 23, 2010 1:54pm
Update on the EUR/GBP trade:

Also, I know that the markets took a nose dive this morning in the US, but let's also keep in mind that it's Thanksgiving week - don't get caught up in the drama.....

Chris
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.png Size: 32 KB
  • #11,328
  • Nov 23, 2010 10:06pm Nov 23, 2010 10:06pm
Possible counter-trend set up happening.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swissy.png Size: 43 KB
  • #11,329
  • Nov 24, 2010 8:02am Nov 24, 2010 8:02am
Quoting clockwork71
Possible counter-trend set up happening.....

Thanks CW, I will take note of this one.

If I don't reply to this thread prior to tomorrow, have a great Thanksgiving!! I am going to dominate some serious food tomorrow.

Thank you so much for your advice and help. I really appreciate it.
  • #11,330
  • Nov 24, 2010 11:02am Nov 24, 2010 11:02am
Quoting drebin
Thanks CW, I will take note of this one.

If I don't reply to this thread prior to tomorrow, have a great Thanksgiving!! I am going to dominate some serious food tomorrow.

Thank you so much for your advice and help. I really appreciate it.
Thank you for being part of the thread....all of you.
  • #11,331
  • Nov 24, 2010 11:21am Nov 24, 2010 11:21am
Quoting stewrigh
4x,

To summarise, if I may, I think what you are saying is 'if it's in the news, its in the price' lol
Lol, most of the time. And when trading on weekly TFs I'd say 99%+ of the time

Hopefully it's just a post that new traders can go back to for a little background and save it repeatedly being explained
  • #11,332
  • Nov 24, 2010 11:26am Nov 24, 2010 11:26am
Happy Thanksgiving to all the US citizens in the thread here.

Spending it in NYC myself and I'm glad I'm not a turkey or a pumpkin in these parts!
  • #11,333
  • Nov 24, 2010 4:17pm Nov 24, 2010 4:17pm
What do you guys think about GBP/JPY? I entered @131.70 , wish me luck
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,334
  • Nov 24, 2010 6:43pm Nov 24, 2010 6:43pm
Quoting erdah
What do you guys think about GBP/JPY? I entered @131.70 , wish me luck
I think that it will follow the stock markets around the world as usual. That might be your first signal to get out. I am 50-50% on this trade to be honest.
  • #11,335
  • Nov 25, 2010 5:01am Nov 25, 2010 5:01am
happy thanksgiving to all our friends .
samer
  • #11,336
  • Nov 25, 2010 10:35am Nov 25, 2010 10:35am
Happy Thanksgiving people! Enjoy the day with your family, eat some turkey, drink some beer, and watch some football!
  • #11,337
  • Nov 25, 2010 3:50pm Nov 25, 2010 3:50pm
Hope you all had a great Thanksgiving. Even those of you that don't celebrate it!
  • #11,338
  • Nov 26, 2010 7:53am Nov 26, 2010 7:53am
Had to do it. Nice trend line break.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.png Size: 47 KB
  • #11,339
  • Nov 27, 2010 12:40am Nov 27, 2010 12:40am
New audiocast uploaded on the blog.
  • #11,340
  • Nov 28, 2010 3:09pm Nov 28, 2010 3:09pm
Quoting clockwork71
No, I agree with you completely, and might have been stopped out by now. (I have been out buying a new car, and haven't even logged on to the computer until now.)

The biggest thing with this trade was the very small size. Do I disagree with your analysis? Hell no. I actually applaud the way you are standing by what you have learned.

The whole idea behind the trade was this: If it were to work, it would be something I would add to when it was way in my favor, and I would try to build a new long-term position.

If not, I get stopped...
Thanks Chris. Appreciate your comments and feels good to hear that I am not off the track.

cheers
p.s. sorry was away hence late reply. Thread moves very fast, lot to catch up :-)
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