trading forex using Gartley Patterns

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_dswi7ZSR8G...%2Bgartley.gif
maybe a bit early but worth keeping an eye on...

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_dswi7ZSR8G...2B1.27abcd.gif


http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_dswi7ZSR8G...3%2Bdrives.gif
the 3 drives doesn't quite match 1.27 and may not be in the best position....
the BAT has an extended 1.27ABCD and C has it's own abcd all at .886XA

catching the falling knife...

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_dswi7ZSR8G...2B1.27abcd.gif
abcd of the gartley comes in just above .618XA

there is also a corrective ABCD outside the gartley

however

ABCD = .5XA = .618abcd which is a nice fib cluster

but

prefer to wait for gartley ab=cd = 1.27ABCD = .618XA

prefer to sell around 82.10

Daily:

Here we see price is being rejected at 82.50.



1hr:

Bearish butterfly forming with entry converging with the 82.50 resistance on daily. We also have 161.8 of AB converging with 82.50 too. When we checked 4hr time frame, we could see that previous low has been broken, which tells us the bears are about taking charge, and price is retracing for retest of daily resistance. We are hoping to short with CONFIRMATION on this pair. Thanks.



4hr:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_dswi7ZSR8G...cd1.27abcd.gif
the ab=cd is quite close to X, and above .886XA but has corrective 1.27ABCD to keep it company
if double top works then will be a great risk-reward play

Hi efeezeefx,

Sorry for the late reply but I had a busy day with my other trades.

I can understand your logic but I would be counting them a little differently.

On the dailys, yes the trend is down, a continuation of lower highs for every new low tested. On 17th Sept we have the first HH after a new low so HH becomes A. Under Gartleys original works then this provides a potential buy. After busting our nuts, and grinding us to the test of a double bottom it bounces back and secures TP1 & TP2 if your following Pesavento's trade plan, and keep the other position open.

From the HH you can see a potential bearish gartley forming so HH can probably become a new X, (X1). There looks like a gartley ABCD forming with B at .5X1A1, and AB=CD arriving at 83.13, nicely between .786/.886XA

If you work from the original XA, that becomes a starting point for a bearish reciprocal ABCD with D finishing at HH=A=X1 level around 84.00ish also supported by the gartley 1.27abcd at 83.93, for nice confluence.

the 4 hour chart is quite bullish so we can only look for confirming bullish patterns for gartleys, or crabs, reciprocal ABCDs', or ABCD's.

i'm not sure if your bfly X is really the correct starting point for the b-fly. In my limited experience it should be at a price extreme, whereas yours is below a prior high. I have no problem been corrected on this if my interpretation is incorrect.

There was an early X which indicated to watch for a b-fly but it didn't eventuate.

Assuming your X is the correct count staring point, there is minimal confluence between ABCD and 1.27XA, nearly 20 pips. It improves for 1.27ABCD and 1.27XA, 15 pips, but I wouldn't take the trade.

It's hard to show on this chart, but if you look at 1.618ABCD and 1.618XA they both come in at 83.03/05. Now that is what I consider confluence.

If you go back to the first post, talking about the larger degree ABCD target is 83.13. So now we have 3 points of confluence within 10 pips and from large degree down to smaller degree. So I would rather get bearish there than here.

btw, why do you use AB extensions in your strategy? It's not a criticism, but a curiousity as I don't see how it has any value.

Let's discuss again at 83.00 http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

it's a bit early to put up, and a lower c ending point for the gartley would would help the confluence but we have a bearish reciprocal ABCD arriving at .786XA, and if c stays here then some extra confluence provided from the gartley formation

ChinaWombat: Thanx a lot for the thorough analysis on CADJPY...I was actually waiting for confirmation (15m bearish crown) on the pair before short, which i didn't get, so i guess your analysis was better. Thanx once again.

GBPCHF:

Quick one on this pair. I see price bouncing of 4hr TL and previous high "A" was taken out to form new high "B", before the third bounce on the TL at "X". We are hoping to long this pair till double top on daily.



1hr.

Price bounced on TL at "X" and broke 1hr TL formed a high and now about retesting at RT to form bullish crown pattern. We are hoping to long at RT.

i'm having trouble getting interested in this pair... just enjoying a quiet evening with the thanksgiving holiday

The daily chart has a nice fib cluster with the recipo ABCD, .786Xa, and ab=cd but a lot of work to be done before we get there, if we even do.

the 4 hour i've had a doodle with and looking at some potential abcd targets but really quite abstract at this stage...

I might look at it again next week but little inspiration coming even with a red wine or two..

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_dswi7ZSR8G...v2010%2B4h.gif
a case for a gartely can be made, but I was looking at this more from abcd viewpoint close to prior pivot support...

who say this this stuff doesn't work...http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_dswi7ZSR8G...Bbutterfly.gif
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_dswi7ZSR8G...ey%2Bdaily.gif
larger gartley on the daily,
and a butterfly on smaller frames
with confluences 1.0035-45

Woooow! Now i see what you mean. What a sweet dive. Thanx a lot.

kiwi in play

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_dswi7ZSR8G...%2Bgartley.gif
might be too early to call but just to keep an eye on...the B point is from the previous gartley called on the 24th...

watching for either, or both of these to occur..
the bullish gartley also has the bigger ABCD to provide lovely fib confluence

i got a message yesterday asking about which trade should you take if you see it on major, and a cross that it's in.

In my limited experience, and it goes against the conventional wisdom of correlation trades which seem to be flavour of the month but you take all of them (in line with your proper risk management rules)

I sold both eurusd & eurjpy on 15 min patterns yesterday, eventually stopped on the eurusd, but had a nice result in eurjpy. Conventional thought would be you trade either one or the other as both eur denominated.

I disagree. You take every trade on it's merits, and structure in the price formation. You don't know what is going on in each price pair so they should all be treated as seperate trades. The eurusd could have a corporate wanting to do a one off transaction to buy it, while eurjpy might have someone wanting to get jpy exposure through a reduction in its european assets.

Prior to taking the eurjpy, usdjpy looked bid, and I wasn't keen for the position, and was only keen to have the eursud. I gritted my teeth and still put it on. When the eurusd got stopped, I was expecting eurjpy to do the same thing, but it failed at the ab=cd and went the right way after that.

Obviously this can have you end up with a very large skewed position if everything is bearish usd, or eur etc, but then you need to mind your risk management rules. maybe have just 1% per trade, or just a total of 4% @ risk in total.

If I have a number of trades setting up with a pre-dominated currency involved, eg the couple of chf trades (usdchf, chfjpy) pointed out earlier, I like to have TP1 executed, which makes it a breakeven trade before putting on the next one. My usdchf, and chfjpy are now at breakeven so if I see another chf trade then I can put it on.

One other observation is that the 15 mins tend to get to 1.27 and 1.618 very, very, very, often so the TP3 can have a very nice impact on your p&l. This uses up less mental energy than a position put on a 4 hour price pattern, and the days (weeks?) spent watching it get to 1.27/1.618

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_dswi7ZSR8G...%2Bgartley.gifwill have to re-draw the 15m if a new 'c' forms...
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_dswi7ZSR8G...110%2Bbfly.giflonger term we have XA1.27=ABCD plus a 2.0BC (though this is secondary) all around .9500