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My 30 pips Daily and my 45% Weekly Journal

  • #181
  • Edited 2:56pm Nov 14, 2010 2:34pm | Edited 2:56pm
Quoting jag1966
Ok Machi, one last point and please don't think I am picking holes in your strategy.

You seem to be basing your entries on solid SR analysis but your targets on the need for a certain number of pips.

If you have to make up for a lost trade by adding the loss to the next trade and the next SR is well short of your required pips the trade / target is not sensible.

Take what the market gives, not what you need.

If I am missing something I apologise.
Point duely taken. Will definitely be looking into that!

I think what you are suggesting is that I either aim for 30 pips or the S&R Level that is closest, right?
  • #182
  • Nov 15, 2010 11:55am Nov 15, 2010 11:55am
Mach,

Sounds like you're learning from last week, so that's good. Razor might be right that four months isn't long enough to know if your system will work long term or not, but I don't think you should throw it out yet. I second the motion to change the TP - some trades won't reach 30 pips and you need to close them out before then. Other trades will blow past 30 pips and I think you should let them ride.

And I still think you are way over leveraged.
  • #183
  • Nov 15, 2010 12:04pm Nov 15, 2010 12:04pm
Quoting Machiavelli7
Point duely taken. Will definitely be looking into that!

I think what you are suggesting is that I either aim for 30 pips or the S&R Level that is closest, right?
Yep, Dr Zeus answered for me, thanks.
  • #184
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:02pm Nov 16, 2010 3:02pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting Machiavelli7
I took the weekend to analyze my trading week and I have come back refreshed and ready to trade for another week. All my trades will be tweeted live by MyFXbook and Currensee so you can follow them.

I have come to one final analysis. My system has an edge and I know it has. The moment I start doubting it and adding Indicators, I have lost my way! I do not agree with you however that my system lacks an edge. One week's loss will not deter me from my chosen course of trading

I will continue to make trades...

Machi..,
Good to see you thinking over and starting again.
Hope we can see you get back on track with your trading now!
If you don't feel completely confident in the "modifications" and how they will work you might try to figure it out with some (visual) backtesting. Takes some time for sure but could be worth it.

Concerning Lotsizes I think you now that the risk (in %) per trade you are taking (or took until now) is fu**ing high. Even if your system has an edge and you modified trying to protect against a "neck-breaking" drawdown, streak of losses can occur and it can break your neck again. You gotta be fully aware of that.
You have a longer term goal with your trading. Not just triple your account within 2 or 3 weeks but being consistent and increasing your account-size over the time...
Knowing that some losses in a row won't kill you makes it easier IMO to stick to the system even in times of a drawdown.
Sure it is up to everyone to take the risk that he/she is comfortable with, but maybe something to think about.
--> in order to find your way over the "Traders Hill" - see attached.

All the best to you!
-Tuner-
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #185
  • Edited 3:45am Nov 21, 2010 3:31am | Edited 3:45am
I don't want to go back to square one. I was reading Sonic's system and I loved his description of the steps a person goes through to become a real trader:

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...9&d=1233810407

I feel that the last two weeks have gone awry because I let my ego get in my own way. I let some of the negative criticism get to me and now I am the one on the losing end. 30 pips per day is a very simple task and why I am not making it begs the question.

I will maintain that trading system and continue to aim for 30 pips, maybe more in a day. In order to take advantage of the huge moves, I have decided that I will use a leverage of 1:20 on my 30 pips per day trades and a 1:10 on my ride the trend system.

What I will be doing in effect here is attempting to trend-trade.

I hope you all get a chance to go back and take a look at my modified system. I have taken time out to evaluate what I did wrong.

In my opinion, trading is simple. The problem is that traders get in their own way, just the way I have been. We don't want to accept that we are wrong.

I will be resuming my trading as the market opens. I hope the lessons have sank and I start growing that curve again.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...24&postcount=1
  • #186
  • Nov 21, 2010 9:52am Nov 21, 2010 9:52am
hi machiavelli,
i'm from italy and i've just found your 3d,
interesting..
i've some question:
set of stock: 14.5.5 right?
set of bb: ? i don't know

entry: you enter in a trade in the direction of the stock after a cross closed over ther medium bb's line?

thank's in advance,
i love the idea of making 30 pips daily!
  • #187
  • Nov 21, 2010 10:58am Nov 21, 2010 10:58am
Quoting dnabrasil
hi machiavelli,
i'm from italy and i've just found your 3d,
interesting..
i've some question:
set of stock: 14.5.5 right?
set of bb: ? i don't know

entry: you enter in a trade in the direction of the stock after a cross closed over ther medium bb's line?

thank's in advance,
i love the idea of making 30 pips daily!
Hi. Hows Italy, Cold I guess!

My original idea was to use a 21.5.5 on the stochs, but I have since adjusted that to 34.5.5. Why? Because although I am a day-trader, I don't want the 10 pips 14.5.5 promises, I want 30 pips and I consider an evaluation of more bars better placed to give a better picture of the trend.

BB, I used 24.2 but I have since changed to 50.1. Why? For the same reason as above. I have realised wih these settings we are likely to get at least 5-9 signals in the week giving an allowance of 3 false signals.

Yes. I only enter if

a) Price has crossed and closed above (Longs) the MA of the Bollinger Bands(Im a firm believer of the Dow Theory)
b) Stochastics is above the 50 mark level(Longs). Trying to pick bottoms and tops is not my thing and so I don't try to buy when stochs are rising above 20, though its also a strategy for some very good traders I know.
  • #188
  • Nov 21, 2010 11:05am Nov 21, 2010 11:05am
I agree with most of you that My Leverage (risk) is way too high. One way to deal with that issue is to pick a system with a high reward:risk ratio. I have thought to only take trades that:

 

  1. In-line with the current trend; that is, look for pullbacks and retracements
  2. Look for trades whose stop loss will be less than 40 pips.

You can also take a look at an article I wrote today called On Being A Chartist

  • #189
  • Nov 22, 2010 3:58am Nov 22, 2010 3:58am
I went back to trading today. I have already made my 9% for the day. I have used the remains of my previous account to continue this project.

I went for the 30 pips and made them easily. See statement here.

I will also be looking to enter the trend-following system once price comes back to the BB MA (and marked areas). Price is currently being held by Daily R1 of the pivot points. A break below will see price hit our BB MA otherwise price might continue to hit R2. I have already made my share today and all I want is an entry for the trending system (retracement).

A break below 1.365 will see prices go back to around 1.335. A break above 1.3768 will see the price hit 1.3856. I just wrote that to keep myself focused on S&R levels around current price.

This time I will not make the same mistakes I made a couple of weeks ago.

Happy trading everyone!
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  • #190
  • Nov 22, 2010 4:40am Nov 22, 2010 4:40am
Quoting Tuner
Machi..,
Good to see you thinking over and starting again.
Hope we can see you get back on track with your trading now!
If you don't feel completely confident in the "modifications" and how they will work you might try to figure it out with some (visual) backtesting. Takes some time for sure but could be worth it.
.....................
-Tuner-
My risk is quite high alright Tuner, that I agree but in a way I feel comfortable with it. I have decided to be calling it a day whenever I have two consequtive losers in a day. Trade 1 will be exited manually if reversal signals are triggered. We will then let the SL take out trade two. Why? Most likely, Trade 1 will be a counter-trend signal and we will be quick to take our losses on that trade because my system will most likely trigger an entry at the last stages of a retracement or pullback, or the early stages of a reversal. Trade 2 will simply mean the retracement is over and we are back to the current trend.

I have looked at The Trader's Hill and here are my inferences:

 

  1. Point 1 rests on system development, discipline to follow it and ability to exercise proper money management.
  2. Point 2 rests on revenge trading and the emotions against or for a trader.
  3. Point 3 rests on the effects of the last couple of trades.

All points here have a psychological association. None of them have the leverage factor except maybe point one although subtle. IMO, Leverage should not be too high as to be ridiculous or too low as to be ridiculous. I'd rather have a leverage whose risk I can live with.

When I went down a couple of weeks, I had a problem with all the three points

 

  1. I did not follow my system or apply proper money management
  2. I tended to revenge after a loss
  3. As a result, I over-traded
  4. My downfall was obviously accelerated by the leverage.

I appreciate your responses. They are real eye openers for me. I'm not anywhere near the perfect trader and your input I'm sure will accelerate my path to consistency. I hope someone else benefits from the thread too by seeing a traders road to consistency.

  • #191
  • Nov 22, 2010 8:38am Nov 22, 2010 8:38am
Thanks for the process.
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  • #192
  • Nov 22, 2010 8:58am Nov 22, 2010 8:58am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting Machiavelli7
I have looked at The Trader's Hill and here are my inferences:

 

  1. Point 1 rests on system development, discipline to follow it and ability to exercise proper money management.
  2. Point 2 rests on revenge trading and the emotions against or for a trader.
  3. Point 3 rests on the effects of the last couple of trades.

All points here have a psychological association. None of them have the leverage factor except maybe point one although subtle. IMO, Leverage should not be too high as to be ridiculous or too low as to be ridiculous. I'd...

Machi,

Nice to see my inputs are of use for you!
I found that picture of the "Trader's Hill" on the internet some time ago. and really liked it.
What is missing in there for the starting point for the new trader is that he/she needs to have a system with an edge at first - as following strictly a system with no edge will lead you nowhere.

The road to consistency. This is what we are all seeking for, yes.
I myself am still struggling with that as well. I am not as experienced in that business as many others here. It has only been a bit over a year now for me trying to master that business.
Took some losses in the first 6 months (before I even knew what I was doing) Now I am fighting back slow but steady. My first goal now is to be consistent over a longer period of time. Sticking strictly to a a rather "chicken-style" in risk-/money management during that time until I proved myself that I can be consistent.
It really depends on every traders own personality how to handle risk in this business. Just always be aware of what a streak of losses can do to your account and if this goes in line with your goal of beein consistent.

Take care and "happy pipping" to you!
Tuner
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #193
  • Edited 10:11am Nov 22, 2010 9:32am | Edited 10:11am
Quoting rotunda
Thanks for the process.
You are welcome. I noticed you are using an SMA. BB uses an EMA, I hope you understand the difference.

I also took that short trade on my long-term trend following system. I am currently +60 pips but I see you're more than +100 given you went short at 1.3696

This system will work because:

1. It is a day-trading system with objectives. You don't have to wait forever to get your paycheck
2. It follows the trend. You will easily learn when you are wrong and hence get out of the trade and get in line with the trend.
  • #194
  • Nov 22, 2010 10:36am Nov 22, 2010 10:36am
The Bearish sentiment on the EURUSD has resumed and I have accordingly taken a short trade as my trend-following trade:
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  • #195
  • Nov 22, 2010 6:26pm Nov 22, 2010 6:26pm
Quoting Machiavelli7
I noticed you are using an SMA. BB uses an EMA, I hope you understand the difference.
That is not correct. The bollinger bands use an SMA. This is easily seen on a chart if you add a 20 ema to the bollinger bands, they wont match up whereas the 20 sma will match.
  • #196
  • Nov 22, 2010 7:43pm Nov 22, 2010 7:43pm
Quoting traderjai_inhi
That is not correct. The bollinger bands use an SMA. This is easily seen on a chart if you add a 20 ema to the bollinger bands, they wont match up whereas the 20 sma will match.
You are absolutely correct. I mistook SMA to mean Smoothed. It should mean simple, right?
  • #197
  • Nov 22, 2010 8:13pm Nov 22, 2010 8:13pm
Yes, SMA typically means Simple Moving Average. I dont use a smoothed moving average so Im not sure how one would abbreviate that. I can see how this might cause some confusion.
  • #198
  • Nov 23, 2010 3:04am Nov 23, 2010 3:04am
Quoting rotunda
Thanks for the process.
hi friend,
what type of MA are you using?
  • #199
  • Nov 23, 2010 5:24am Nov 23, 2010 5:24am
sma on 30 minute chart is 50sma.
  • #200
  • Nov 23, 2010 5:40am Nov 23, 2010 5:40am
Marked levels are entries for fractal candle breaks.
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