Cyclical Trading

I can count 4 waves on the Euro, we should be in an 5th wave. I have support drawn out on the chart.

Here is a chart of GBPJPY with Mercury aspects. It seems to react very well to that.

We had a match in price and time.
Helio Mer 90 Sat coincided with Mer longit. support.

Also, we had 4 days of bearish momentum. Now, 7 was an important number for Gann. So was 50%. 50% of 7 is 3.5. When a trading week starts bearish, or bullish it will more often than not stay that way for at least 3.5 days.
Just an indication, not a law.

I am more inclined to think that bounce came from Moon 60 Mercury though. It matched better time-wise.

Doubt it. Moon - Mercury aspects are smaller cycles and operate within strong cycles like the one we had. Also 60 degrees is a soft aspect and usually is a continuation of the trend.
Reverse signals are the hard aspects like 90 degrees.

I got a tip to look at a chart of GBPUSD.
So I did.
Look at it here:
(I already am short GBPJPY)

Right ascension today on eurusd. I have to admit that I never have traded this aspect but price is up against 180 degree Gann line and retesting natural resistance.
The downside exposes 3260 on 2 channels, the 30 min chart and the daily chart channel from June 6, 2010.
Support starts at 3280.

♀ 27°D39

Hi, do you consider the turning back to direct as having effect from yesterday or from now? This is where I find it rather confusing.... If take it as yesterday, then one can say that when it turns back to direct, brings things up again. If take it as today, then one can say that since markets rose up to this point, then the next leg is down..... either way has its points.

What's your view on this?

I always expect them to go counter trend. So whatever the trend is doing at that time, we should see a countertrend reaction.

However in this case Jupiter also stopped the R-motion.
So, it is interesting to see where this goes.

I am short eurusd with a stop at 3750. But it is not an educated trade, more a "see where it goes" short term trade, small position...

I missed this line completely. I didn't have much time last week to stare at charts but the eurusd stopped dropping on a 270 degree Jup line last week.

Also Jup went direct as did Venus. That could mean that a bottom is in for the eurusd and we will resume the uptrend.
A drop below 3446 would change this view.

Updated Gann chart.
Here is visible which time periods are active on eurusd.

Sun 00 SG today.
These are usually good for some price action.
Jeanne Long speaks about this in her book, universal clock, when a planet crosses the 24 line (which means changes zodiac signs) prices usually move.

The sun starts its cycle through the zodiac at Aries, which is 00 degrees. Then moves through:


http://www.solarnavigator.net/histor...ure_images.jpg
A circle is 360 degrees, there are 12 signs, so 30 degrees to a sign.
We set them up in our Bumasoft Planetary Longitude plotter and highlight 0, 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, 180, 210, 240, 270, 300, 330, and 360 degrees. Each time a highlight gets hit, the sun moved a sign.
See the chart for the effects.
Some signs have more effect that others. A way to trade it could be to set a buy/sell stop at the high low of the previous candle and see where it goes, or play the countertrend move with a stoploss at the time of the aspect. Yes, that is the price level at the time of the aspect and give or take some pips for spread, room to grow etc. But of course, this is not trading advice. Today we had almost 200 pips. But as the saying goes, results of the past are no guarantee for the future blah blah.

(Edit: Ephemeris tells us that sun was in 00 Aries on March 21 2010)

I got a tip from Mike.

What I like is the 4h MACD crossover and the divergence.

No hands....

http://www.educatedanalyst.com/time-...odical-degrees

Holidays are great for spending quality time, but very bad when trading.
The eurusd is a true mess and trying to make some sense of it all is almost impossible.

I have 4 charts with technical analysis to try to shed some light on it all and the fundamental undertone is that the Euro is talked up by Germany and Fed is trying to inflate so, fundamentally we are looking for a stronger euro and weaker dollar, see if technicals agree.

The 30m chart is showing a clear sell signal after it failed to sustain above the pitchfork level of 3410. Support is at 3314. We can see that the move from 3500 to 3054 is a B wave it held the 78.6 fibo support and the 3054 level was a Gann 180 support level on the SQ9. I am not convinced from this chart that wave iii) is in though, we may go sideways for a little while and attempt a new high again, but more on that later.

The planetary chart shows that the big move came after mercury went direct on Dec 30 and euro gained 200+ pips. We can also see that on Jan 4 we will have some major events taking place. First there is a Uranus-Jupiter conjunction, then we have a solar eclipse. The solar eclipse will take priority and will be counter to the trend.

The harmonic chart shows a bearish Gartley which indicated a wave iii) is in at 3424. The daily chart seems to confirm that as price tried to pierce through the mercury longitudal resistance and failed. At that same area are also the pitchfork resistance and the 38.2% fibonacci resistance from 4281 to 2968.

However I don't think wave c) is complete yet, From an elliott point of view this is a (B) wave and wave (A) was in 3 waves, so wave c) can be also in 3 waves, or in 5 or something complex like a triangle, but eventually will come down before reaching the 4281 high, unless of course it is an expanded flat, one of the many pitfalls of Elliott, and thats why you need to look for other signs as well.

In conclusion it is likely that we will eventually get a higher move after some correction. The immediate (short term) trend is down. 3278 needs to hold as support and a break of 3424 will confirm this view. Resistance is also at 3463 and a break there will open the way to 3739 which is the 61.8% retrace from 4281 to 2968. Look there to complete wave (B) and for a new short opportunity.

I am using a method of cycle analysis to follow markets that is similar to Delta, but I have made changes to make it more palatable with my understanding of market structure. These are the changes I made.

1. I am not restricted to the larger cycles that Delta has published. I contend that almost any larger time cycle that is evenly divisible by 4 will possibly prove correct and should be tested.
2. The best way to determine the cycle turning points in time is to track at least 20 complete larger time cycles, of each turning point and put the time that each turning point occurred in a spread sheet. As in Delta, there must be the same number of turning points in each larger time cycle; with the exception that there can be only one inversion turning point allowed after the last turning point in the larger time cycle to allow for the price to flip for the next cycle. No inversions allowed after the first turning point as in Delta.
3. Divide your larger time cycle into 4 equal parts. ( the Blue in the chart ).
4. Divide each of the 4 equal parts into equal parts that are divisible by the total number of turning points in each larger time cycle. ( the gray dotted lines in the chart ).
5. Average each turning point over the 20 samples for each turning point to come up with a place in the equal parts to place the turning point ( the Yellow label in the chart lists these averages for my Eurusd chart.
6. Now place a letter for each turning point in the larger time cycle at the appropriate time place on the chart. (I use Letters instead of numbers, so as not to get my chart confused with a Delta chart, as mine is significantly different).
7. Now as price marches on through time, each turning point will average to be an actual turning point with a general margin of error of +- 2 bars, according to my rules. Note that a turning point can generally come late on a strong trend move and come early on a counter trend move. Also note, I do no have faith in trends for trading and pay attention to both trend and counter trend.
8. Pay attention to if there is an extra turning point only sometimes between any turning point that happens only between the same turning points in the larger time cycle It will only be the same two turning points in each larger cycle that it appears. This is where to start your sequence from, ( see my chart and the letter"N". )

That's about it. I do not trade from this chart, as I trade on a very short time frame ( 1 minute ) not scalping, but for clear entries and exits. I use this chart a guide post to know when I can expect a probable reversal.

Also note the yellow lines on my chart. They are support and resistance lines formed by several touches and slight over runs of the line on the same chart. I use this info in conjunction with the turning points for my short term entries and exits.

Note also that this chart is based on a larger time cycle of 1800 minutes, because there are 7200 minutes in a trading week from Monday through Friday and 7200 / 4 = 1800 minutes. I could have used a day as the measure and divided it by 4 to come up with 360 minutes or a month, or 2 weeks, or 4 hours... I think you get the idea. the idea of a one size fits all lunar cycle, while it works fine is not the only solution. As Solomon said; Eccl. 1:9 "What has been is what will be, and what has been done is what will be done; there is nothing new under the sun".

Under this scheme, this week, the Eurusd on my chart makes very understandable sense, it is just a little distorted.

Looks good smjones, thanks for sharing.

So, short term eurusd, what is your outlook based upon your posted chart?