Conditions for a big move | Forex Factory

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Conditions for a big move

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 9:27pm Nov 18, 2010 7:21pm | Edited 9:27pm
A big move can happen only after the big players get loaded up for it. How do they get loaded? They get loaded by unloading their opponents. Who are their opponents and how do they get unloaded? Continue yourself.
  • #2
  • Nov 18, 2010 7:34pm Nov 18, 2010 7:34pm
They have to sell when everyone else is buying so they can easily fill their orders without having much impact on price.

A wide spread down bar (into a demand zone) that is accompanied by "ultra" high volume usually means big money entering the market. From there, there are tons of ways to enter with them.
  • #3
  • Nov 18, 2010 7:39pm Nov 18, 2010 7:39pm
Quoting frankkn
They have to sell when everyone else is buying so they can easily fill their orders without having much impact on price.

A wide spread down bar (into a demand zone) that is accompanied by "ultra" high volume usually means big money entering the market. From there, there are tons of ways to enter with them.
What's a better way to trade forex using volume? By looking at futures market or using tick volume?
  • #4
  • Nov 18, 2010 8:08pm Nov 18, 2010 8:08pm
Quoting seagreen
... can happen only after the big players get loaded up for it. How do they get loaded? They get loaded by unloading their opponents. Who are their opponents and how do they get unloaded? Continue yourself.
Not true

Price can drop like a rock simply cause no one is buying it...

Or rally just casue there is no one selling it

If you think about the most Volatile pairs with the biggest moves this is not due to bigger players this is due to much lower trading volume.

The EUR hads the largest trading volume and therfore the lowest spreads and typically smaller trading ranges than most other pairs.
Time hides Nothing
  • #5
  • Nov 18, 2010 8:22pm Nov 18, 2010 8:22pm
Quoting seagreen
What's a better way to trade forex using volume? By looking at futures market or using tick volume?
Tick volume works just fine. Only use FXCM or IBFX, and stay between 5m and 1h. Other time frames and brokers, I wouldn't try it.

Edit:

For weekly and daily futures volume is the only way to go
  • #6
  • Nov 18, 2010 9:10pm Nov 18, 2010 9:10pm
Quoting frankkn
Tick volume works just fine. Only use FXCM or IBFX, and stay between 5m and 1h. Other time frames and brokers, I wouldn't try it.

Edit:

For weekly and daily futures volume is the only way to go
Are their (FXCM, IBFX) demo feeds as good as live ones?
  • #7
  • Nov 18, 2010 9:21pm Nov 18, 2010 9:21pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
Not true

Price can drop like a rock simply cause no one is buying it...

Or rally just casue there is no one selling it

If you think about the most Volatile pairs with the biggest moves this is not due to bigger players this is due to much lower trading volume.

The EUR hads the largest trading volume and therfore the lowest spreads and typically smaller trading ranges than most other pairs.
Maybe i was exagerating about ONLY but here's something to think about. At any given moment for every market participant holding a position there's another participant holding the opposite side of it. For retail traders this is usually their broker, or if we take the whole FX market, for customers it's the bank. So if in a rally most customers are holding a long (winning) position, then the banks are supposed to hold short (losing) position. Which is not true according to COT reports.
  • #8
  • Last Post: Nov 19, 2010 8:30am Nov 19, 2010 8:30am
Now, consider we're expecting a move up. That should happen if the demand exceeds supply and will be valid up to a point where they come to balance. (whether it is short term, mid term etc). Demand is market orders to buy, supply is limit orders to sell which is liquidity. So if you're controlling supply (providing liquidity) you're actually controlling 50% of what provides for the market move. Now who's providing liquidity?
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