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Higher low, lower high system

  • #3,501
  • Nov 18, 2010 9:21am Nov 18, 2010 9:21am
Quoting Dhb
Some nice setups on EJ today as well...

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Nice use of bollinger bands in tandem with V's method, mate. Well done!
  • #3,502
  • Nov 18, 2010 9:34am Nov 18, 2010 9:34am
Quoting Dhb
Some nice setups on EJ today as well...

Attachment
Nice chart DHB, a little aggressive for my tastes but brilliant trading mate, thanks.
  • #3,503
  • Nov 18, 2010 9:36am Nov 18, 2010 9:36am
Quoting eyevoltage
Nice use of bollinger bands in tandem with V's method, mate. Well done!
Cheers. Bollinger bands can be a great tool to evaluate trend, volatility and whether or not price is overextended. One or two MA's suffice for trend/pullback trading, but I also like to see where price is moving in relation to the mid and outer bands.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #3,504
  • Nov 18, 2010 9:38am Nov 18, 2010 9:38am
Quoting Dhb
Some nice setups on EJ today as well...

Attachment
Yes dhb very nice, I hope you got some of those.

A very disappointing day for us. For whatever reason we missed the 8.30 gmt half hour reversal (yes like FH half hour reversal we also look for LO half hour reversal to set up a decent move) and that turned out to be the best trade of the day. 2 hammer's on 15 min at RN (was going against the 1 hr though) set up the hl at 113.10 ish.

Anyway after that one we traded eur which didn't go anywhere until we exited.

Tomorrow is another day!
  • #3,505
  • Nov 18, 2010 9:48am Nov 18, 2010 9:48am
For this one, I had to rely on psych-lines seeing as R3 had been left behind! The blue square shows a spinning-top right on the 34ema, with a nice HL straight afterwards. I jumped in as price breached the xx50 psych-line, with TP being the next psych-line up!
Attached Image
  • #3,506
  • Nov 18, 2010 10:00am Nov 18, 2010 10:00am
Oh no. Unfortunately, I did not trade any of these. I was out when all the above setups happened. Just thought I'd share some of the opportunities I spotted for educational purposes.
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #3,507
  • Nov 18, 2010 10:02am Nov 18, 2010 10:02am
Quoting Dhb
Oh no. Unfortunately, I did not trade any of these. I was out when all the above setups happened. Just thought I'd share some of the opportunities I spotted for educational purposes.
Much appreciated!!
  • #3,508
  • Nov 18, 2010 10:03am Nov 18, 2010 10:03am
Quoting Dhb
Oh no. Unfortunately, I did not trade any of these. I was out when all the above setups happened. Just thought I'd share some of the opportunities I spotted for educational purposes.
Cheers, thats fine.

EV very nice stuff as usual.

Back tomorrow.
  • #3,509
  • Nov 19, 2010 3:59am Nov 19, 2010 3:59am
Back up computer bombed out so spent the last 3 hours on back ups back up (well original computer repaired). Downloaded everything but cannot for the life of me get 4 screens to work in tandem where I can get mouse to drag across 4 screens. 3 right, 1 at the end mmmmhh.

Oh well at least we are up and running just in time to stop before Bernanke/Trichet speak.
  • #3,510
  • Nov 19, 2010 5:21am Nov 19, 2010 5:21am
At what point does the trend change ? .e.g right now 1hr and 15 min are showing negative close. Does this mean were looking for shorts ? but wouldnt this also mean that almost every hour or 15 mins there a negative or positive close we would be looking to change direction ?
  • #3,511
  • Nov 19, 2010 5:44am Nov 19, 2010 5:44am
Quoting dan89
At what point does the trend change ? .e.g right now 1hr and 15 min are showing negative close. Does this mean were looking for shorts ? but wouldnt this also mean that almost every hour or 15 mins there a negative or positive close we would be looking to change direction ?
Some of my general rules of thumb are that in and around LO price can turn on a dime ie a 5 min hl/lh/nice 15 min hammer SS etc. Around now ie pre US open price can take 1-3 hours to turn around so you definitely need to take a lot more time IMHO pre US open.

Whilst anything can happen at any time I wouldn't be convinced yet of a fall in eur or ej. GU looking weaker but we still have lots of big lower wicks on 1hr.

Daily is up on gu, 5900 is a 62% fib 22 Oct to 4 Nov range where we had the bounce.

So for me to think short term trend has changed I'd want a solid neg close on 1hr. Gu did hit a W pivot at 6092 and poss res level 15 Oct high. The move down may just be a blip, we could be headed up further from here. We are still on gu 1hr higher lows, higher highs ie the trend up is still in tact.

US will do what it wants to do though.

OK so yes whilst you may have the chance to scalp on good 15 min candles they won't set the trend.

To look for places to see trend changes look at the bigger pic and shahab8b's thread is one of the best around for that.
  • #3,512
  • Nov 19, 2010 7:14am Nov 19, 2010 7:14am
Quoting Vantage
Some of my general rules of thumb are that in and around LO price can turn on a dime ie a 5 min hl/lh/nice 15 min hammer SS etc. Around now ie pre US open price can take 1-3 hours to turn around so you definitely need to take a lot more time IMHO pre US open.

Whilst anything can happen at any time I wouldn't be convinced yet of a fall in eur or ej. GU looking weaker but we still have lots of big lower wicks on 1hr.

Daily is up on gu, 5900 is a 62% fib 22 Oct to 4 Nov range where we had the bounce.

So for me to think short term trend has changed...
Eur fell an hour later when a 1hr doji had closed and gu fell when we had a 1hr neg close.
  • #3,513
  • Nov 19, 2010 7:28am Nov 19, 2010 7:28am
Quoting Vantage
Eur fell an hour later when a 1hr doji had closed and gu fell when we had a 1hr neg close.
Is this the neg close you are refering to. Im assuming a neg close is a close that is lower then the previous close not the low ?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: neg close.jpg Size: 223 KB


So were looking at short trades only now ? Lower highs on m5

thanks
Dan
  • #3,514
  • Nov 19, 2010 7:36am Nov 19, 2010 7:36am
Quoting dan89
Is this the neg close you are refering to. Im assuming a neg close is a close that is lower then the previous close not the low ?

Attachment

So were looking at short trades only now ? Lower highs on m5

thanks
Dan
Yes thats what I was referring to. The candle is a type of doji, but it did close in its lower half ie a neg close candle.

So have a look at the prev 1 hr candle on gu and the pa that followed on 5 min. It took another hour for the neg close candle and after that closed pa moved quickly.

Eur same position 1 hr hammer, then 1 hr doji after that pa much better.

Like I said pa pre US open can take a long time to turn literally hours and I look for decent 1hr candles to confirm a move. This does mean I miss some moves but also avoids a lot of rubbish. Again when the 1hr did turn moves were pretty quick. Just my take.
  • #3,515
  • Edited 8:37am Nov 19, 2010 8:24am | Edited 8:37am
Hello Vantage

Curious as to how you set your targets? Do you use S & R from higher t/f or are you taking your 20 pips and leaving it?

Thanks again for your thread. You have really improved my understanding of price and S & R.

Actually, I have another question, prompted by Dan's post below. After seeing a H1 candle that you want to act on, and after dropping down to say the M5 chart and see that there have already been two or three retraces and continuations, would you take the trade? Or would you think that it could be reaching a point of exhaustion?
  • #3,516
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:27am Nov 19, 2010 8:27am
Hey V thanks for the reply. What are your thoughts on this trade i took ? 1hr neg close 15m neg close. Entered on the break of the doji candle

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: vantage 5.jpg Size: 242 KB


Regards
Dan
  • #3,517
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:57am Nov 19, 2010 8:57am
Quoting Delite
Hello Vantage

Curious as to how you set your targets? Do you use S & R from higher t/f or are you taking your 20 pips and leaving it?

Thanks again for your thread. You have really improved my understanding of price and S & R.

Actually, I have another question, prompted by Dan's post below. After seeing a H1 candle that you want to act on, and after dropping down to say the M5 chart and see that there have already been two or three retraces and continuations, would you take the trade? Or would you think that it could be reaching a point...
Targets depends on the time. Before London open strictly in and out at psych levels. After that we try and let run but 40-50 pip trades and we are happy, target psych levels, pivots, S + R levels. If we are lucky and candles play nicely we are happy to enter 2-3 times. If we are in moves from early we are happy to carry on entering but if its run decent range 125-150 pips like gu has now its always much riskier to enter so late for the first time, doesn't mean they won't be good trades just means you are taking a bigger risk. If we have missed moves and looking to get in for first time its not something we often do, doesn't make us right just makes us more conservative than some.
  • #3,518
  • Nov 19, 2010 8:59am Nov 19, 2010 8:59am
Quoting Vantage
Targets depends on the time. Before London open strictly in and out at psych levels. After that we try and let run but 40-50 pip trades and we are happy, target psych levels, pivots, S + R levels. If we are lucky and candles play nicely we are happy to enter 2-3 times. If we are in moves from early we are happy to carry on entering but if its run decent range 125-150 pips like gu has now its always much riskier to enter so late for the first time, doesn't mean they won't be good trades just means you are taking a bigger risk. If we have missed moves...
Thank you. I am also pretty conservative in my appraoch to risk, hence this morning, didn't feel able to take a trade on EU given the length of the run prior to LO.

Have a great weekend!
  • #3,519
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:00am Nov 19, 2010 9:00am
Quoting dan89
Hey V thanks for the reply. What are your thoughts on this trade i took ? 1hr neg close 15m neg close. Entered on the break of the doji candle

Attachment

Regards
Dan
Not one that I would have taken, 15 min did have a doji, due to down trend strictly an in and out grab what you can trade. You are braver than I am.
  • #3,520
  • Nov 19, 2010 9:03am Nov 19, 2010 9:03am
Vantage

Are you self taught or have come from within the business? How long have you been trading?
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