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  • #121
  • Feb 8, 2006 11:27am Feb 8, 2006 11:27am
Quoting vegas

The important thing was that you had a lead in the trade and it was a free ticket, not that it came back.

Hope this helps.
Hi Vegas,

Thanks for your insight.


Believe it or not, I'm still in the original GBP/USD trade, with my full position and then some. The main reason I'm still in this trade is because I didn't move my original stop to breakeven until price advanced a good 1.5 atr.

Never the less, I must break my old habits and learn to take partial profits (normal I like to add to my position as price moves my way) and stay focus on the method and not the pips.

Thanks again,

Drew
  • #122
  • Feb 8, 2006 12:32pm Feb 8, 2006 12:32pm
First of all .... Vegas .... Thank you for the great models. I missed the usdjpy, but entered the eurjpy .... I'm sitting on my 1/3. Price continues to move up, but I have some profit.

http://www.innoexe.com/1DEurJpy01.jpg
If it is not broken, fix it until it is!
  • #123
  • Feb 8, 2006 12:58pm Feb 8, 2006 12:58pm
[quote=Pipex]First of all .... Vegas .... Thank you for the great models. I missed the usdjpy, but entered the eurjpy .... I'm sitting on my 1/3. Price continues to move up, but I have some profit.

http://www.innoexe.com/1DEurJpy01.jpg[/QUOTE

pipex,
yea, I'm sorry we weren't up at C2 in time to get eur/jpy position on too. Anyway, I hope you took some off at the tunnel per the 'VWB' file. That would have gotten half your position off at or near the bottom so far.

I wouldn't let the pair get past 142.05 -08. That's where I would have our stops if we were in the position.

The one common theme all vegas trades have is this: we don't hold losers long, we let winners ride. The Yen just didn't work out [small profit, breakeven on the rest], time to move on to next opportunity.
vegas
  • #124
  • Feb 8, 2006 4:05pm Feb 8, 2006 4:05pm
Vegas, one question here: if your system expectancy (winners vs. losers) and the risk/reward (stop loss vs. distance to the tunnel) are both possitive, why not close the full position at the tunnel? Sure you would give up on some potentially-larger moves, but from what I have seen by scrolling back through the charts, most of the times you'd score a full profit and therefore avoid being hit back at break even (such as what has happened on the Yen trade).
  • #125
  • Feb 8, 2006 5:41pm Feb 8, 2006 5:41pm
Quoting WTB
Vegas, one question here: if your system expectancy (winners vs. losers) and the risk/reward (stop loss vs. distance to the tunnel) are both possitive, why not close the full position at the tunnel? Sure you would give up on some potentially-larger moves, but from what I have seen by scrolling back through the charts, most of the times you'd score a full profit and therefore avoid being hit back at break even (such as what has happened on the Yen trade).
WTB,
It's a good question.

The answer is that nobody knows for sure where this stuff is going: nobody. I don't care about dollars when I trade. I only care if I am on the right side of the trade. If I am, then I have a free trade, and have accomplished the "Holy Grail".

Going back over the charts, I see plenty of times in just the last year where getting out of the full position at the tunnel would not have been as profitable as staying the course.

In fact, only three times in the last year did that happen in cable. So your opportunity cost was about 700 pips [3*233= 699]. In the March - May period of 2005, moves past the tunnel equaled approximately 1100 pips.

Earlier today I posted a response to someone else about the sting of watching something come back and forcing you out at breakeven. I forget where in here it is, but at the risk of repeating myself, I ask your patience in finding it.

The bottom line is money. Over time I think you make more.
vegas
  • #126
  • Feb 8, 2006 6:35pm Feb 8, 2006 6:35pm
Hi Vegas and thanks again for your smarts!
Using VWB-II, the single biggest hurdle I (and probably most other fx noobs) currently face is evaluating the 3 criteria for a reversal at an outer fib level. I realize that you have stated forex is NOT an EXACT science and I agree with you. However I was hoping you could suggest how I can quantify the "momentum" component in terms of ATR and the hourly chart. eg "if the price reverses a minimum of 66% of the ATR within a single 1 hour bar, then that is considered significant momentum".
Thanks and regards
ron b.
  • #127
  • Feb 8, 2006 6:54pm Feb 8, 2006 6:54pm
Quoting rjb1024
Hi Vegas and thanks again for your smarts!
Using VWB-II, the single biggest hurdle I (and probably most other fx noobs) currently face is evaluating the 3 criteria for a reversal at an outer fib level. I realize that you have stated forex is NOT an EXACT science and I agree with you. However I was hoping you could suggest how I can quantify the "momentum" component in terms of ATR and the hourly chart. eg "if the price reverses a minimum of 66% of the ATR within a single 1 hour bar, then that is considered significant momentum".
Thanks and regards
ron b.
That's a very interesing point. After all, it is the hinge pin of "Ringing the register". On a similar note...

Vegas.. you informed us that, at that point in time, you set your initial stops
ever so slightly beyond recent H/L.
Q. Since we obviously have an additional resource [apart from yourself or others that had input in VWB params] of comparative analysis mathematicians on hand, Do you have any other inclanations, feelings, nuances or 6th senses that perhaps could be mathematically defined to improve Initial Stop Loss nails?
  • #128
  • Feb 8, 2006 7:00pm Feb 8, 2006 7:00pm
Quoting neilt
Hi All

attached is my attempt at putting the VWB II data into a excel spreadsheet for:
eurgbp
eurjpy
eurusd
gbpusd
usdcad
usdchf
usdjpy
audusd

The dates are from 19 Sep 05 to 7 Feb 06 (19 Sep 05 was selected because prior to that date there appears to be missing daily data on the interbankfx history file on some of the pairs???). I have also taken out all data from Sunday trading days (my guess in doing this - futures markets don't trade Sundays and spot markets are traditionally thin on Sundays). The data is from interbankfx (can't vouch for it's accuracy!). For all paris except chf & usdjpy there are 102 records. in chf & usdjpy there are 101 records (I haven't looked into why - a date missing somewhere - possibly there was no market on these 2 for a day??)

I am confident I have put correct formulas into the spreadsheet (as per the VWB II document) but stress that it shouldn't be relied on - maybe Vegas can cast his educated eye over it.

As far as updating the spreadsheet - not sure how often this should happen. To do this you will need to insert a row (or rows for more than 1 entry) at the bottom and then (a) copy formulas down; and (b) change all casting formulas to take in the new row(s). I have done a bit of excel programming (in VBA) and this process could be more automated with some more work http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon10.gif.

I would be happy to update the spreadsheet weekly (over the weekend) if this frequency is sufficient. Someone let me know.

Anyway - hopefully this is of assistance to some of you (glad to be able to contribute - assuming this is a contribution!! http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon12.gif).

cheers
Neil

ps didn't have data for S&P emini but will look for it when I get some time and add it to the spreadsheet.

********************************************************************************************
please do not download and use this spreadsheet, there is an error in it - instead refer to post#68 for edited spreadsheet

thanks
neil

Could someone tell me, where you can download (preferably free )FX Historical data showing high, low close and in what format does it come
  • #129
  • Feb 8, 2006 7:15pm Feb 8, 2006 7:15pm
Quoting Lindsay
Could someone tell me, where you can download (preferably free )FX Historical data showing high, low close and in what format does it come
Well I suppose it depends on what timeframe you're thinking of
I presently am working on a VT version of the one[1] week high/low to produce a Fib Fan from same into the current week.

But if all you need is the high/low of one week or otherTimeframe, pm me with your params and perhaps [if VT is acceptable to you] I will see what I can do.
  • #130
  • Feb 8, 2006 9:10pm Feb 8, 2006 9:10pm
Quoting Lindsay
Could someone tell me, where you can download (preferably free )FX Historical data showing high, low close and in what format does it come
You can get free daily and hourly historical data from forexite.

http://www.forexite.com/free_forex_q...ory_daily.html

I have only used the MetaStock ones. The files are CSV with date,time,O,H,L,C.

Wiz.
  • #131
  • Feb 8, 2006 9:34pm Feb 8, 2006 9:34pm
Quoting Bemac
That's a very interesing point. After all, it is the hinge pin of "Ringing the register". On a similar note...

Vegas.. you informed us that, at that point in time, you set your initial stops
ever so slightly beyond recent H/L.
Q. Since we obviously have an additional resource [apart from yourself or others that had input in VWB params] of comparative analysis mathematicians on hand, Do you have any other inclanations, feelings, nuances or 6th senses that perhaps could be mathematically defined to improve Initial Stop Loss nails?
Bemac and rjb1024,

Feelings, sixth senses, or nuances eventually lead to ruin. Long-term success can only be achieved through a model with rigid discipline.

Eventually, these "touchy-feely" kind of things catch up to you when you go cold. I have seen it with my own eyes more often than you can imagine. Phrases like, "It just has to go up" or "I've got a feeling this stuff is going to ..." I've heard this 10,000,000 times when I was on the floor. You never hear this from the big pros.

Now, it's one thing to take a partial profit from price action, it's quite another to put on a trade doing the same. If you do, you never have any rules for getting out except your stomach. Funny how the market knows just how far to make you puke.

Early in my career I thought I was pretty smart. Guess what? I wasn't making squat. All my "feelings" were hot and cold. When I turned things around, I heard something from someone that has stuck with me since:
"Are you dumb enough to be rich?"

Yes, I am.
vegas
  • #132
  • Feb 8, 2006 9:51pm Feb 8, 2006 9:51pm
Hi Vegas... Could you please look at post-126.
Thanks!
  • #133
  • Edited 9:55pm Feb 8, 2006 9:52pm | Edited 9:55pm
Quoting rjb1024
Hi Vegas and thanks again for your smarts!
Using VWB-II, the single biggest hurdle I (and probably most other fx noobs) currently face is evaluating the 3 criteria for a reversal at an outer fib level. I realize that you have stated forex is NOT an EXACT science and I agree with you. However I was hoping you could suggest how I can quantify the "momentum" component in terms of ATR and the hourly chart. eg "if the price reverses a minimum of 66% of the ATR within a single 1 hour bar, then that is considered significant momentum".
Thanks and regards
ron b.
Hi Vegas,

How would you quantify momentum on a pair such as the AUD? The average daily range on the AUD is somewhere between 50-80 pips. I would think a 20-25 pip move form a daily high/low might be considered "momentum"?

I thought one of the benefits of the VWB part I was to move people from trading using smaller time frames, 1 hour to daily charts. Now VWB part II comes out and it appears that we're back to looking at the 1 hour charts for reversal days. It seems to me that I will be back to sitting in front of my computer watching the hourly charts trying to figure out when a reversal occurs?

When I read VWB I I was very happy to think that I wouldn't have to spend the majority of my waking hours sitting in front of my computer. Now that I have read VWB II it seems I'm back to square one. I'm just like 90% of the people out here, have a job, family and just can afford to spend 8 hours a day glued to my computer. I'm a newbie at this so my observations may be way off. Could you please elaborate on this point?
Dave If you can't swim with the sharks stay out of the water!
  • #134
  • Feb 8, 2006 9:57pm Feb 8, 2006 9:57pm
Quoting vegas
Now, it's one thing to take a partial profit from price action, it's quite another to put on a trade doing the same. If you do, you never have any rules for getting out except your stomach. Funny how the market knows just how far to make you puke.
So true that's why I make sure I'm on an empty stomach when I trade..
But seriously, I have learned the importance of not using my stomach to gauge when I'm already trading.

I'm including such gauges in my prep work.

Just butting in..
  • #135
  • Feb 8, 2006 10:10pm Feb 8, 2006 10:10pm
Quoting downunderdave40
Hi Vegas,

How would you quantify momentum on a pair such as the AUD? The average daily range on the AUD is somewhere between 50-80 pips. I would think a 20-25 pip move form a daily high/low might be considered "momentum"?

I thought one of the benefits of the VWB part I was to move people from trading using smaller time frames, 1 hour to daily charts. Now VWB part II comes out and it appears that we're back to looking at the 1 hour charts for reversal days. It seems to me that I will be back to sitting in front of my computer watching the hourly charts trying to figure out when a reversal occurs?

When I read VWB I I was very happy to think that I wouldn't have to spend the majority of my waking hours sitting in front of my computer. Now that I have read VWB II it seems I'm back to square one. I'm just like 90% of the people out here, have a job, family and just can afford to spend 8 hours a day glued to my computer. I'm a newbie at this so my observations may be way off. Could you please elaborate on this point?
downumderdave40,

Most people [like me] who aspire to trade for a living will need something better than just the close for determining entry. We learn a market personality and try and take advantage of that. This gives us better price entry and somewhat lower risk. Will we make more money than you? Yes, is the short answer.

Like all things in life, trading is not fair, especially those who have to work for a living. However, even if you have to use just the close, you are still way ahead of the curve. Granted, you aren't going to make as much as me, but so what? You're still going to make more than most, and more than those who try and scalp or daytrade. You don't have to spend all your time in front of the computer. Just use VWB and go from there.

You basically have two choices. 1) get my trading signals through C2 and we make the calls for you, or 2) just use the close [or near the close] for initiating your positions and don't worry about it.
vegas
  • #136
  • Feb 8, 2006 10:19pm Feb 8, 2006 10:19pm
Quoting rjb1024
Hi Vegas and thanks again for your smarts!
Using VWB-II, the single biggest hurdle I (and probably most other fx noobs) currently face is evaluating the 3 criteria for a reversal at an outer fib level. I realize that you have stated forex is NOT an EXACT science and I agree with you. However I was hoping you could suggest how I can quantify the "momentum" component in terms of ATR and the hourly chart. eg "if the price reverses a minimum of 66% of the ATR within a single 1 hour bar, then that is considered significant momentum".
Thanks and regards
ron b.
rjb1024,

There are just some things that are non-computable. This is a good news-bad news sort of thing. The bad news is that if it could be quantified, you wouldn't want to play the game because the top banks and hedge-funds would take all the money. The good news is that it doesn't need to be computable. After a while [give it some time] whatever your currency pair of choice is you'll know it when you see it.

I think you will have a very, very difficult time trying to write some sort of algorithm to quantify momentum relative to price action. Can you see momentum shift from team to team in a sporting event? OK, you can, now try and quantify it. See the problem?
vegas
  • #137
  • Feb 8, 2006 10:38pm Feb 8, 2006 10:38pm
Quoting Lindsay
Could someone tell me, where you can download (preferably free )FX Historical data showing high, low close and in what format does it come
Lindsay, if you have MetaTrader, you can go to Tools>History Center and double click on a currency, then double click on a time frame. Then you can Export the data in .csv (comma separated value) format to your hard drive. The .csv file then opens beautifully in Excel!

Dial
sxaxlxvxaxtxixoxnxbxyxgxrxaxcxexdxoxtxoxrxgx
  • #138
  • Feb 8, 2006 10:50pm Feb 8, 2006 10:50pm
Mr. Vegas Sir,

You state the following in your description of the spreadsheet:

Quoting VWB II

Column J is either yes [Y] or no [N] the days range of the lead month futures contract equaled [or surpassed] the 20 day moving median within 5 ticks in Column E. Note: In Row 101 and 102 the totals are listed for the dates shown in the table. There are 74 dates, and 42 of them hit the 20 day moving median within 5 ticks while 32 did not. This is a hit ratio of 57%.
What is the purpose of the 5 ticks? Is there a reason for not setting the value to "Y" when the days range is equal to or greater than the 20 day median? What is the reason for setting it to "Y" when the range is still 5 ticks below the 20 day median?

Thank you Sir!

cici
  • #139
  • Feb 8, 2006 10:56pm Feb 8, 2006 10:56pm
Quoting cici
Mr. Vegas Sir,

You state the following in your description of the spreadsheet:



What is the purpose of the 5 ticks? Is there a reason for not setting the value to "Y" when the days range is equal to or greater than the 20 day median? What is the reason for setting it to "Y" when the range is still 5 ticks below the 20 day median?

Thank you Sir!

cici
Cici,

Recognizing that not everything is cut and dry to a pip, I use 5 pips just to enter a little chaos factor into the equation.
vegas
  • #140
  • Feb 8, 2006 10:59pm Feb 8, 2006 10:59pm
Quoting downunderdave40
I thought one of the benefits of the VWB part I was to move people from trading using smaller time frames, 1 hour to daily charts. Now VWB part II comes out and it appears that we're back to looking at the 1 hour charts for reversal days. It seems to me that I will be back to sitting in front of my computer watching the hourly charts trying to figure out when a reversal occurs?

When I read VWB I I was very happy to think that I wouldn't have to spend the majority of my waking hours sitting in front of my computer. Now that I have read VWB II it seems I'm back to square one. I'm just like 90% of the people out here, have a job, family and just can afford to spend 8 hours a day glued to my computer. I'm a newbie at this so my observations may be way off. Could you please elaborate on this point?
This was a good question downunderdave40.
I am on the same position as you.

Somehow, somewhere, I knew there were going to be disadvantages when you're not trading for a living. Just like what vegas pointed out. There are just some things we have to sacrifice. We can never get them all. But we can get what we need/want.

But just as long as I'm still profitable and I trade the way I think that I can, then I think I'm satisfied with that.
Maybe in the future, I can completely live off trading, but for now, I can't and I won't pressure myself into doing something that I know will be giving me stress.

I know my limitations, and I think those are thing that I need to live with right now.

Quoting vegas
downumderdave40,

Most people [like me] who aspire to trade for a living will need something better than just the close for determining entry. We learn a market personality and try and take advantage of that. This gives us better price entry and somewhat lower risk. Will we make more money than you? Yes, is the short answer.

Like all things in life, trading is not fair, especially those who have to work for a living. However, even if you have to use just the close, you are still way ahead of the curve. Granted, you aren't going to make as much as me, but so what? You're still going to make more than most, and more than those who try and scalp or daytrade. You don't have to spend all your time in front of the computer. Just use VWB and go from there.

You basically have two choices. 1) get my trading signals through C2 and we make the calls for you, or 2) just use the close [or near the close] for initiating your positions and don't worry about it.
Thank you for your honest answer vegas.
We can't have it all. I think I'll be happy with my share.
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