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GU, GJ and EU Analysis Thread

  • #721
  • Nov 17, 2010 8:03am Nov 17, 2010 8:03am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Few EU charts.....I see a reversal pattern occuring. Given we are at the 61.8 retrace of the drop since 1.5145. We have been ranging over the last 2 weeks on the daily between 1.38 and 1.41. There is obvious supply entering around here which is visible from the high volume daily Pins forming. The monthly bar is showing VSA signs it is to complete as a high volume churn bar which is a strong reversal sign. I wouldnt jump in short right yet but wait for the 4 hour head and shoulders formation to break its neckline and wait for the pullback before...
Hi Everyone,

Good to see views and ideas being exchanged on the thread.

Not posted much lately as I didnt see the point in repeating medium term anaylsis....Been waiting for EU to break HnS neckline so futher medium term shorts can be added. Intraday scalping as usual.

Must admit I was not expecting a stop clearer to the extent we got one which was price rallying to 1.4289 between 28th Oct and 4th Nov. Soon as we had 2 consecutive daily downbars with high volume the move up was confimed as a stop clearer which gave excellent opps to open discounted short positions. Currently short 1.3925 with BE stop, 1.3755 with BE stop and 1.3625 stop at 1.3750. I have TP target of 3310 which is 61.8 fib of the last daily rise and also previous daily swing high.

I have attached upto date charts and previous 2 EU posts for those not aware of my technical medium term EU views.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=669

Stocky
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  • #722
  • Nov 17, 2010 8:29am Nov 17, 2010 8:29am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Hi All,

Hope everyone had a good week....great week for all types of trading especially scalping.

I have refreshed S/R levels on all GU time frames and have attached Monthly, weekly, daily and 4hr charts.

[color=black][font=Verdana]Long term I see GU heading for 6744 area which is the top of the major range we were in from May '09 to Mar '10 unless the MPC decide on a round2 QE stimulus for the UK. We have a clear weekly...
GU:

Given we failed to make a higher daily high of 5984 support and now have a daily close below it after yesterdays Inflation comments I woulod expect us to target daily suuport 5650 after retest 5984 as resistance. Close eyes on daily candle sequences here for early signals of a reversal north as my long term target is still bullish for GU at 1.64 and 1.6744.

Stocky
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  • #723
  • Nov 17, 2010 9:33am Nov 17, 2010 9:33am
Hi Stocky, glad you feel the same about Cable being bullish, and yes, can see reasons for the retrace that you highlight.

Other than that, I'm a little bored today - short EU, however - and so entertaining myself with trying to lick my elbows. Yes, may sound strange, but a young relative presented the challenge yesterday, and I've been trying ever since... think I may have dislodge a vertebrae in the neck somewhere, not sure, but it hurts like hell.

I can already hear the ladies tutting with a sigh before exclaiming; boys, typical!
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #724
  • Nov 17, 2010 11:27am Nov 17, 2010 11:27am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
I tried that too, and it hurt like crazy; 'll never follow your suggestions again.

In long on cable from 1.588 with sl at break even, and just interested in how low you project the euro will go since you're still short. I missed buying from 1.346 yesterday/today as I haven't been around, and I guess I'll only know after today's close if there might be another opportunity to buy from there tomorrow or on Friday. If we drop to your projected 1.33, I'll be loading up big of course.

Where are you short on the euro from btw?

i

Quoting 45Condor
Hi Stocky, glad you feel the same about Cable being bullish, and yes, can see reasons for the retrace that you highlight.

Other than that, I'm a little bored today - short EU, however - and so entertaining myself with trying to lick my elbows. Yes, may sound strange, but a young relative presented the challenge yesterday, and I've been trying ever since... think I may have dislodge a vertebrae in the neck somewhere, not sure, but it hurts like hell.

I can already hear the ladies tutting with a sigh before exclaiming; boys, typical!
  • #725
  • Nov 17, 2010 12:58pm Nov 17, 2010 12:58pm
Quoting IbkA
I tried that too, and it hurt like crazy; 'll never follow your suggestions again.

Where are you short on the euro from btw?

i
Whenever I involve myself with EU, it always ends in trouble. Currently in from 1.3740, and similar to Stocky, BE stop at present. As mentioned on the charts from this post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=716

and with an updated daily attached, possibilities range for the 1.33 area if considering expected support/resistance zones and plotted fib study of the last swing, but I do also have the other levels from fib and extension potentials.

I suppose it all depends on how pear-shaped things become in the next few days and weeks in EuroLand, as to how far down it can go. And that is where I have a problem with Cable, and hope that if the Euro does/is being prepared for a battering, manoeuvres are being made to de-couple Cable from the Euro - we will see.

Sorry to hear that you hurt yourself, but it is fun to try.

Yours,

The elbow licker.
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  • #726
  • Nov 17, 2010 3:38pm Nov 17, 2010 3:38pm
Quoting 50d
This week gone by was filled with a lot of jittery; currency wise. Stocky monk, your chart analysis continue to amaze me.
We've tested the 1.6 region twice and it held as support. currently i have a long position with a view that the bulls will continue their run to 1.64 as that seem to be in view once the high of last wee (1.629ish) is broken. I may be wrong...
someone pointed out a cup n handle scenario in GU... well, the neckline (1.6000) seem to be intact.

I attach GU charts - 4hr, D1, W1.
Hi 50d,

Apologies for the delayed reply. Nice clean analysis. Hope trading is going well. Lots of data this week to move the markets so keep a close eye on GU. Looks like GU will test 5750 if we can break current 4hr support 5880. Given the data yet to be issued this week it wont take much to get us lower if we breach 5880 especially with plenty of negative euro news around at moment.

Tradewell

Stocky
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  • #727
  • Nov 17, 2010 3:40pm Nov 17, 2010 3:40pm
Quoting 45Condor
Hi Stocky, glad you feel the same about Cable being bullish, and yes, can see reasons for the retrace that you highlight.

Other than that, I'm a little bored today - short EU, however - and so entertaining myself with trying to lick my elbows. Yes, may sound strange, but a young relative presented the challenge yesterday, and I've been trying ever since... think I may have dislodge a vertebrae in the neck somewhere, not sure, but it hurts like hell.

I can already hear the ladies tutting with a sigh before exclaiming; boys, typical!
Hi condor,

Glad to see you in on the EU move aswell. nice work

Elbow Licker?? lol

Stocky
  • #728
  • Nov 17, 2010 6:21pm Nov 17, 2010 6:21pm
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Great stuff, I got home from work earlier and saw 2 buy limit Euro orders had kicked in on my trading netbook & thought 'aha I did place an order afterall', then realised that was my demo platform - silly lass! I rarely place pending orders on my live platform, ever since one night last year when I first started trading and had just finished placing buy limit pending orders on both cable and the euro, with massive stop losses at around 9.55pm when the US announced a raise in bank exchange rates (or something stupid like that) at 10.05pm. Of course cable (and the Euro)dropped about 200 pips that night, hitting all my stops, leaving me totally unimpressed with life!

I identify strongly with your initial statement i.e. "Whenever I involve myself with EU, it always ends in trouble", so I'll either wait for this 1.338 target and buy from there, since I missed the buy opportunity yesterday, or I'll wait to sell from around 1.386, if that's the right thing to do at either end of the spectrum at the time.

Good luck with your trades, and let me know when you've worked out this elbow licking stuff, I've given up trying.

i



Quoting 45Condor
Whenever I involve myself with EU, it always ends in trouble. Currently in from 1.3740, and similar to Stocky, BE stop at present. As mentioned on the charts from this post:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=716

and with an updated daily attached, possibilities range for the 1.33 area if considering expected support/resistance zones and plotted fib study of the last swing, but I do also have the other levels from fib and extension potentials.

I suppose it all depends on how pear-shaped things become in...
  • #729
  • Nov 18, 2010 12:47am Nov 18, 2010 12:47am
Here's a bit of price action analysis bearing out (ouch!) my bearish view of this pair:

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What was I going to say? Oh yes it's 6.40 am here and a stormy pitch black morning... Hanging man, feeble attempt at a higher high, double bar high, lower close and I even got a fibonacci retracement to fit.

Expect a retracement up the bearish bar to test 133.15 then it's short all the way.

Expect this pair to do anything it likes.
Gone to a better place
  • #730
  • Nov 18, 2010 6:59am Nov 18, 2010 6:59am
It is said to be impossible, but try we all must to prove the hypothesis incorrect.

So far, the hypothesis is lending itself to theory.

I think I will just accept it, as the theory that if one stretches one's neck too far, paralysis will set in, should not be something one tries to disprove.

As for trading, Cable and Geppy received a nice pump north, and EU seems to be following, albeit reluctantly. I've not taken anything today, and will watch the one entry that I have on EU.
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  • #731
  • Nov 18, 2010 2:37pm Nov 18, 2010 2:37pm
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Absolutely no comment on Geppy, because I want to live as stress-free a life as possible.

Eventually got in on the euro slow train early in the morning, while still holding on to my long on cable; but then realised pretty quickly we weren't going anywhere fast with the Euro as the Swissy stopped just shy of touching parity, & short of where I had an alert set for 1.0020/35 to consider shorting from there if it's the right thing to do at that point.

Will leave the alert and pray for the sound of 'parity here I am' on the swissy overnight or early tomorrow; see where we are with the Euro then and consider going long from there for a ride back up north if that's the right thing to do at the time.

SL set to b/e on cable order from 1.58 and, if we don't reverse 100% of today's ride tomorrow, then I'll hold on to my buy and wait for a test of 1.632/37 before letting this particular trade go.

Ps. could you PLEASE stop trying to prove the impossible is indeed impossible; you need a clear head, not a broken head or neck to stay in this business as well as keep us informed and entertained with your commentaries so quit trying, I quit very quickly so go on,give it up (didn't you notice the wise Stocky Monk; he said 'lol, elbow licker', i.e. he didn't suggest he'd join you in trying, he's laughing at you!

Good luck with your euro order, and I'll be looking for opportunities to buy and hold the euro once the swissy has peaked.

i



Quoting 45Condor
It is said to be impossible, but try we all must to prove the hypothesis incorrect.

So far, the hypothesis is lending itself to theory.

I think I will just accept it, as the theory that if one stretches one's neck too far, paralysis will set in, should not be something one tries to disprove.

As for trading, Cable and Geppy received a nice pump north, and EU seems to be following, albeit reluctantly. I've not taken anything today, and will watch the one entry that I have on EU.
  • #732
  • Nov 19, 2010 2:03am Nov 19, 2010 2:03am
Was about to have a say on events in Ireland, but then stumbled on this from the DT. Saves me scribbling today.

Yes, Stocky, that chap is probably far too sensible to follow me down some of the paths I try.

Inserted Video
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  • #733
  • Nov 19, 2010 6:04am Nov 19, 2010 6:04am
Quoting Stocky Monk
Hi Everyone,

Good to see views and ideas being exchanged on the thread.

Not posted much lately as I didnt see the point in repeating medium term anaylsis....Been waiting for EU to break HnS neckline so futher medium term shorts can be added. Intraday scalping as usual.

Must admit I was not expecting a stop clearer to the extent we got one which was price rallying to 1.4289 between 28th Oct and 4th Nov. Soon as we had 2 consecutive daily downbars with high volume the move up was confimed as a stop clearer which gave excellent opps to open discounted...
closed EU shorts 3925, 3755 and 3625 at 1.3625....one positon out for BE.

EU has bounced stronger than I execpted from the 50% fib of the daily rise since 13 sept. The bulls will be looking at this rise as 50% fib bounce of the overall rise and a continuation of the up move whereas the bears will be looking at this as a 38.2/50% retrace of the drop since Nov 4th....hence we will get fib wars causing plenty of chop around 3765, 3864. Im not going to be stubburn about my bias and let this argument eat my profits hence why I have banked profit and will let the market decided direction. I am still bearish on EU and see 1.33 as next target once we have performed a 38.2/ 50 fib retrace. I see this as a retest of the HnS neckline pointed out in previous posts. Im out of all EU positions for now and will be looking for reversal and re-entry opps around 3765 / 3864. Should price trade past the 61.8 of the drop then I will be looking for longs again.

Weekly candle looks like it may close as a pinbar so this will be intresting to see if the market pushes EU lower into NY close today. Should we continue to rally past the 3960 area then I will be looking for longs upto the decending weekly TL highlight by the orange box and question marks on the weekly chart.

Have a good weekend all.

Stocky
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  • #734
  • Nov 20, 2010 5:48am Nov 20, 2010 5:48am
  •  IbkA
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: 'Hope' + 'Greed' = GAMBLING... | 514 Posts
Will be interesting to see what comes up re. Ireland and all the other eurozone countries, but I'm still awaiting a retracement on this pair before going long - even if I have to wait till Tuesday or Wednesday for . Alerts set at 1.360, 1.357, 1.344 to see what's happening around the time we get there, if we get there on the weekly, for opportunities to go long; although opportunities may exist to short from 1.378 and 1.386 as you've said, I'm just watching for long opportunities from beneath where we closed this week.

The Swissy still hasn't hit it's intended target of just above parity 1.0025/60, so also watching for what happens around there if we get there. Weekly bullish candle on this pair and the USD/JPY, possibly indicating there's still a 'little' mileage in the USD bull run & conversely, a potential retest of last week's low on both the euro and cable ?

I'm mildly bullish on the euro if pushed for an opinion, but have now worked out the timing of my entry is more important than my sentiment on any pair, 'sentiment' meaning purely 'opinion', 'speculation' in this business. Alerts set, and will wait to see how low we retrace to this week before buying back up to 1.43. If we get even close to 1.3460, will be buying the euro with a 100 pip sl (on my live account this time).

On cable, alerts set at 1.606 and 1.6079 for opportunities to go short to 1.584/80 , and at 1.5840, plus 1.5810 for potential long positions - agreed, we coud potentialy extend to 1.5770 but a 100 pip SL should take care of this eventuality, from 1.583 if we get there.

Have a great weekend, and good luck to you all next week.

i





Quoting Stocky Monk
closed EU shorts 3925, 3755 and 3625 at 1.3625....one positon out for BE.

EU has bounced stronger than I execpted from the 50% fib of the daily rise since 13 sept. The bulls will be looking at this rise as 50% fib bounce of the overall rise and a continuation of the up move whereas the bears will be looking at this as a 38.2/50% retrace of the drop since Nov 4th....hence we will get fib wars causing plenty of chop around 3765, 3864. Im not going to be stubburn about my bias and let this argument eat my profits hence why I have banked profit and...
  • #735
  • Edited Nov 21, 2010 8:20am Nov 20, 2010 3:59pm | Edited Nov 21, 2010 8:20am
I’m not sure most here have seen the press since yesterday’s release by Mr Dominique Strauss-Kahn. If you really want to wade through the waffle, you can find it here.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2010/111910.htm

Some may have also seen the press photograph of the IMF audit team arriving in Dublin. Well, dear me, if the best that can be mustered is three or four somewhat bedraggled-looking figures passing by some unfortunate soul holding up a paper cup for alms, I’m afraid that I am not convinced of the bright future that Dom the wannabe dominant envisages when proclaiming that, “European nations need to cede more of their sovereignty and hand greater powers to the centre to avoid future crises.” My man, say as you mean it, and in so doing, finally prove that all that your critics have said, was true, and that you lot will not stop until you have complete control of a super state. Makes one want to digress in to the mechanics of this slow take over, but I'll save that for another day.

Hey, tell me, Dom, why do I get the impression that your stooges in Dublin seemed unable to see the young man begging to their side, or are they trained to ignore during induction into the club that is EuroLand functionaries?

You then proceed to say: “The wheels of co-operation move too slowly. The centre must seize the initiative in all areas key to reaching the common destiny of the union, especially in financial, economic and social policy. Countries must be willing to cede more authority to the centre.” Well, bust a gut, if you are not suggesting a model that was used by your kindda, namesake - Genghis Khan. He did much the same, but used brute force, whereas you seem to be employing backdoor force.

To assert that in order to reach a common destiny, the centre must ‘seize’, is somewhat truculent, and perhaps not the best choice of verb in which to persuade a jaded public to agree with you. Indeed, it is this very goal of undermining sovereign status for those countries embroiled in the Euro fiasco, and those that are not, but are obliged to contribute, that so appals citizens that, reduced to watching their savings and investment plans thrown into the winds of doubt, witness those that have created the current fiscal environment enjoying a return to champagne and caviar.

You certainly are trying to strike whilst the lance is hot, but, me old chum, there are many, like me, who don’t want a regulated sausage shape – I enjoy my imperfections – and I most certainly do not want to be greeted within Europe with a common language and common rules… the diversity that still exists makes the experiences of these different countries that which entices me back.

Today there will have been yet another round of closed-door discussions in Dublin between Irish officials, representatives of the IMF, the EU and the European Central Bank. Some observers would argue that the timing is convenient as these negotiations are occurring after the markets have closed to all but inter-bank transactions. Dom, I ask you, was this not the same situation before Greece capitulated? And look what is happening there since last your stooges visited.
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  • #736
  • Edited 7:34am Nov 21, 2010 7:06am | Edited 7:34am
Hi guys,

I direct you to an extremely important post Oct 4:


Quoting sinner-
As far as I am concerned, current prices all have QE2 baked in, as pointed out by others shorts have not been piling in, if there is no QE2 announcement then expect a strong correction. But there is another possibility to squeeze USD shorts:

The USD interest rate. If Treasuries have indeed bottomed and rates are about to go up, expect the USD to strengthen chronically against the likes of EUR, CAD, JPY, GBP and CHF with their extremely low target rates.
Witness the 10 year yield after October 4:
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On October 15 I mentioned in regards to Thermopylae, the intraday DX level to be an interesting historical price.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=634

Please see a currency performance snapshot since that post (could only line it up to Oct 14 nor find the CAD index, sorry):
Attached Image


Note that the AUD, which has a high target rate, outperformed the USD by 1.4% since October 14. My guess is the British Pound held its own because Gilts are taking a beating, compared to the SNB, BoJ, ECB who all are buying their own bonds by now I am sure.
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Now...to the future, still looking to this:

Quoting sinner-
My long term view on the USDX (weekly chart) essentially centers around the 80 level. If we bounce, approach the 80 level and fail/break lower before testing it, then expect much much lowers in the USD over the coming year. Otherwise this is just a corrective move, and the next wave up in DX is coming.

So only a little patience is required, and the market should tip its hand.
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So...do we fail and break now? Or another bounce? I sit and wait patiently after the recent market swings.
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Since the Anglo Irish thing...everything has to do with yield, interest, bonds, etc. I remember mentioning something about this before...

Muni bonds literally took a puke and wiped out a huge quarterly inflow. This does not bode well for anyone. Check out Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Jersey, the Carolinas, etc. Bankrupt States of America.
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Tent City, Sacramento California:
http://www.nytimes.com/slideshow/200...6-TENTS_3.html
Quote
Willie Mac, 53, and his wife, Barbara Smith, 41, collected pieces of pallets that they use for fuel in their home, which is located in a vacant Fresno rail yard. "We got a roof, and it does not leak," she said of the home, which they built using scrap wood and scavenged two-by-fours.

Number of Millionaires in Congress: 261
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_1...47-503544.html
Quote
According to the Center's estimates, the wealthiest member of Congress is Rep. Darrell Issa (R-California), whose holdings exceed $303.5 million.

Everything is connected.
  • #737
  • Nov 21, 2010 7:48am Nov 21, 2010 7:48am
Quoting sinner-
Everything is connected.
Excellent stuff as always
  • #738
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:22am Nov 21, 2010 8:22am
Food for thought indeed, Sinner.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #739
  • Nov 21, 2010 8:58am Nov 21, 2010 8:58am
Quoting sinner-
Hi guys,

I direct you to an extremely important post Oct 4:




Witness the 10 year yield after October 4:
Attachment

On October 15 I mentioned in regards to Thermopylae, the intraday DX level to be an interesting historical price.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=634

Please see a currency performance snapshot since that post (could only line it up to Oct 14 nor find the CAD index, sorry):
Attachment

Note that the AUD, which has a high target rate, outperformed...
Hi sinner,

Would you mind telling me where I can get those charts?
Thanks in advance.
  • #740
  • Nov 21, 2010 9:26am Nov 21, 2010 9:26am
Quoting pkimnyc
Hi sinner,

Would you mind telling me where I can get those charts?
Thanks in advance.
Hi,

As stated, right there on the charts, taken with gratitude and attribution to stockcharts.com and barchart.com.

Here is another one.

Follow the arrows.
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