Technical Analysis Fallacy

Preparing for next major news releases now in about 15 minutes.
EU is not trending at all today.
Have still no bias and have traded only EU and cable news this morning and two very very small range trades on EU with short bias.

Will wait now and hope to see some direction then ...
Would not consider my trading as dancing today. It is much more vola scalping. Hoping for some dance music soon ;-)

Whats that?
Do we have a POMO day today?

Edit:
According to the schedule we have some FED actions today.
But do not think that that spike was related to it ....
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/to..._schedule.html

Figs < forecast
so let's see how strong EU debt worries are weighing in the market.
Send in long scout at 3635

14:34 - b x 2 x Eu x 3612 (rescue)
14:36 - rescue still in. short term supported by DOW and Gold
14:39 - b x 2 x eu x 3614
14:41 - s x 3 x eu x 3619 market does not feel behaving right. So I'm careful
14:42 - there are major news ahead in 18 minutes.
14:43 - M15 chart is looking very ugly with all that long top wicks. Careful ...

I like it

15:46 - prepared for next rescue level.
15:47 - b x 5 x eu x 3593
15:49 - s x 6 x eu x 3603 (only scout in)
15:53 - waiting for next moves and news. Now long wicks at bootom on M5, means support ..
15:55 - what ever will happen next, I'll try to bailout my scout as soon as possible. For now it is not a market for easy trading ...

15:59 - Recap: average price now 35.73
16:00 - fig < expected
16:01 - b x 3 x eu x 3604
16:03 - s x 3 x eu x 3612 very unclear situation. All my supporting pairs do not help atm
16:05 - my son is calling adn wants to play. Have to finnish now.

so far I made 36 EUR out of this.

Cu,
MaMood

I must agree with you "fti". For the most part I am a self educated man in the Forex market (for that matter, any other market); however, I have a "mentor" who has taught me the basics about all types of market analysis, but at no time has he ever tried to convince me that a holy grail exists; weather it be robots, indicators, etc. In fact, the man has always stressed that any and all tools are simply guides...they are only to be used to "help" you make a decision. Basically, you can only stack the odds in your favor because a foolproof system does not exist. Honestly, I still can't figure out why people get it in their head that a robot will profit on every trade (no matter how great the robot). But, if you use all the tools in your arsenal as guides you will have a much better trading career. Thanks for the post.

Good to see u Man...where u been hididng....


V

scaled back ,watching 3495 area.

I have been reading this and have done well over the first 100 pages (which is nothing, I know) but hoped someone could help me understand this further.

From what I'm gathering it's a small trade to see where the market is going? Isn't that what price is for? Doesn't that go against the AOW? You only enter the battle when you know the outcome based on the all the premises set forth by the book?

Not trying to disagree with the thread or anyone on it but I'm really having a hard time wrapping my head around this idea.

Thanks

The scout is just a feeler as being in a trade tends to kick in the emotions and the mind. Spectating is not the same as playing, right? Actually, we can never be sure where the market is going but we have plans and capitalisation to accommodate whatever the market throws at us.

So once the scout is in then you're in the game. It is the beginning of your spiral. Whether you rescue or attack from there is the next step.

Zoran has given you already a very good description.
I only will add something, because it is so simple:

You send in the scout for participation.

Have found that on another thread from PipEasy.
If you ponder about "participation" you'll easily be able to "brainstorm" all facettes of using a scout.

CU,
MaMood

Edit: If I remember right Tsun Tsu stated in AOW that the general should take much care for his spy's and scouts and that they are very very valuable. They have to be paid very well, cause of their value for the success on the batllefields. Unfortunately I do not have the exact statements atm ....

Hi friends,

all US figs have been more worse than expected.
All EU figs have been better than expected.
So it seems to be easy to feel how strong the foreign debt crisis in EU zone is weighing on EU.

Would be very interesting to see how EURUSD will react, when there are news that the problems are solved or less dramatic...

Waiting for that day :-)

CU,
MaMood

Just for info:

LONDON, Nov 16 (IFR) - The Eurogroup EcoFin remains in focus but some suggest that Greece has not met its bailout commitments, with AFP citing the Austrian Finance Minister, Josef Proell, as saying that until it does so Austria will not release its contribution to the package. EUR/USD ducks back into the 1.3590s on the reports, with key support still seen into 1.3560/50. M [email protected]
Copyright 2010 Thomson Reuters - IFRMarkets

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

Hi again,

aftre I have done some news scanning and checked my charts I guess I'll take a look into Asian session.
Unfortunately I missed that nice move down to 1.34xx, cause I was out and playing with my son. So I'll be prepared for the second chance. Could get very interesting, if we will see the next leg down then.

BTW: Send in a short scout at 3480. Will use the upmove (if any) to scale slowly into my position. Using very defensive skewing ....

Cu,
MaMood

Hi,

want to recap an answer of fti regarding realtionship between different markets, i.e. Gold and EURUSD. Think it is worth to think about, cause I'm mentioning very often that I refer to Gold, DOW or Oil charts ....

Originally Posted by Billionaire
Till now since 8:45 AM EST, the USD keeps going up against EUR, but gold price seem reluctant to drop much further, anybody know the correlation % between gold price & USD ?

Hi Billionaire.
There is non universal impact, only localised impact.
You seems to have a MAJOR problem with understanding market relationships.
Your training will destroy your book and your financials , not withstanding your ability to think in battle scenerios. Unfortunately you are not alone , many here on this thread, not counting those on FF, have this problem.

See if you can understand this.

There is no logical relationship whatsoever between the different markets, however there is symbiotic relationship( known as basis), in that some fundamentals influence them based on common impact , some inverse impact.
The relations exist when the markets behave in unison, otherwise the different markets may be affected by other localised factors.

By context, lets say a girl behaves in a certain manner when she is dating you, but that doesn't mean that she behaves the same when dating someone else. You have and effect on her behaviour , similarly , others impact her differently.

So when you try to relate the impact of one market on another , you must also viewthat if the markets do not behave as you expect them to, then something else that you are not privy to is affecting it.

We can argue until the cows come home, on why, how...
but the fact is that if the impact is not felt in the market place , just accept it.
Trying to split hairs on the issue , will just distract your focus on reality (whats actually happening) and make your mindset rigid. This can prove dangerous to your book.

regards

You will find the original posting here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5070

Hi again,

some small move on EU.
Are we going to start just for another leg down now?
Will wait for some more momentum.
Not very used to trade wellington and the Asian session, so I'll stay very nimble and focussed, till I have earned some foreign cap ...

will be watching how she responds to the 3529 area.
along with 3 kingdoms watching a/u 9763 area.

looking at wed. e/u daily
3612
3529
3404


(looking at weekly charts 3495)-(looking at daily charts 3507 were areas of extra interest yesterday with eye on 3523), will be watching she responds today.
(looking at quarterly chart 3415)

Good Morning Friends,

that was a long and boring night.
Was expecting a possible continuation with another leg down, but all we have seen was a dead market.
Have been dancing together with Dongsky. So I was at least not alone ...

Have made some pips down on cable and EU in the past 45 minutes.

Hope we will see some more action now.

Wish you a successful trading day!

MaMood

Just for info:

0534 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY higher at 83.42 vs 83.28 in late NY trade Tuesday, partly due to falling commodities prices, says dealer in Tokyo. Commodities, especially gold, often move inversely to USD. Investors paying attention to benchmark CRB index, which fell more than 3.0% Tuesday, to gauge commodities outlook. "If we are going to see sharper declines in commodities prices, we should expect further upside potential for the U.S. dollar," says Yuichiro Harada, a senior dealer at Mizuho Corporate Bank. Dealers tip resistance at 84.00, then 84.50. ([email protected])

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)

Just for info:

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The dollar rose against the yen Wednesday in Asia as concerns over a possible slowdown in the Chinese economy led to a fall in commodity prices, which often move inversely to the greenback.
Speculation has been growing that recent Chinese monetary policy tightening may put a brake on the rapidly expanding economy, in turn, reducing demand for commodities. This has given the safe-haven U.S. currency a strong tailwind, dealers said.
[...]

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)