Pathfinding

I can see from early posts that i hadnt incorporated exhaustion into my thinking. This is a key element that Hoss had taken into account. There is many things he did not take into account however.

Anyway i think its a key element in such a manner that without it, one cant trade profitably.

When pondering this in its entirety i came up with a simple explanation of what it is i am doing.

I am reverse engineering the average of all high frequency EAs, mostly. And then i try to incorporate the irrationality of misguided human logic. And as in poker, trying to face an opponent that every now and then push all theyr money into one all in, is often very hard if you are using pure logic, math and empirical evidence.

I would think that hedge funds and players like JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and the other big banks dont really NEED to be smart, there is no incentive, they have other tools to meet theyr ends. And thats why they ARENT smart. Of course they hire a bunch of currency traders and the like, but i have a hard time seeing how these guys get chosen by merit, concidering the fact that if they are good, they can do it on theyr own. I can however see why you would do it in the beginning, when profits are chaky and you dont need to put your own money on the line.

"his is part 3 of Mani’s article about Market Sentiment you can read his first article here and the second one here. Hi everyone, I’m about to declare our first tool of finding sentiment in the market and it is “Magazine Covers” As you know, magazines such as The Economist, BusinessWeek, Forbes, Wall street Journal, New York Times are very popular and most of professional traders say that these are must-reads."

Yeah im sure people in those magazines want you to think that. So the 6 pips i just made in a few minutes, i could not have made if i didnt read those? Hmm well i dont remember reading those, but STILL i managed to trade...strange coincidence if what this schmuck is saying is actually true. Wonder why i dont read stuff like that, after a while people start believing theyr own bullshit, even though in the beginning they knew it was all lies.


A lot of other news seem to be things i already know: E/U dropped to x after event z. If E/U reaches level -A it could drop to level -B, if not it will reach +A and if that does not hold it will reach +B.

So i need to know that it moved the way i knew it moved the seconds it did so? I already know that, i am one of the first to know. Come on, i could calculate that in my sleep, that if something gets somewhere, it will either stop there or go some place else.

I guess its the fate of "news" in the modern world, stuff people either already know or dont need to know.

What really gets my mental coks turning is this: If people really think the news (wide definition) really have a forseable consequence, how do they calculate that in a myriad of news, most of which is pure propaganda and lies? I think the answer is that they dont, it should be VERY difficult to produce and maintain a system that you feed data in the form of news, and out comes a slip saying X probability of scenario A. Simply because a mechanical system like that would have no idea how to understand exactly how much money is affected in excatly what manner. Say a really loaded hedge fund manager is looking to unload 500 miljon dollars, because thats how much he need to do something with, because of chaotic outward, incontrolleable circumstances. Then perhaps the placement of those 500 mil is very affected by the news just because this guy reads 3 papers and not the 348787 other papers that tells him something else. Its a djungle of chaotic incontroleable circumstance, this thing called news, by definition. Of course not to everybody, and not every news event.

I am getting interested in the smallest unit of candle formations. Id like to elaborate on this but i cant do that and trade at the same time.

Extremly interesting is the effect of how much of a candle is within the limits of the candle before it, and this relation in the preceeding few candles, say 5. If this is elaborated on im sure one could trade 100 times a day with an accuracy of about .9 to .7 depending on skill. This would feed from the S/R function of free space. I would use current visualising mode, only think about it differently/elaborated.

Its a strange thing that sitting on the sofa eating breakfast with my wife wathcing Mitchell and Webb can actually do good for my account.

10/10 days +
Scratch that 9/10 days +

I have often seen that i use my close script and then there is 2-3 seconds as usual before position closes, and it often closes on that exact number or one where i gain slightly less. Now however i saw an instance where i closed at a nifty profit, and then in the next 2-3 if i had closed there it would have been less of a profit, followed by an actual close at that price where the profit where pretty nifty.


HOW empirically well founded is Tupacs connection to bloods? What where the crips main income in late 90s (where did the drugs come from)?

9/12 days + (God damnit i didnt notice that red G20 notice) These people and there meetings...

Right now some nice weather is blowing in. Volume is sane and price is capped below M15 MAs. Decided yesterday that MAs on H1 get so screwed up by weekends that they are not much to look at. Besides they dont seem to do that much, ill just have a look at it a couple of times a day instead of having it there all the time.

Price is in the middle of big channel of M15. Its been in a dip yesterday but gained that and is back on a sideways track, which is perfect. Recent Candles are really tiny 15 pip affairs and the like, will see what london decides in the morning, and maybe get in with some real cash after that.

The day before yesterday i god godsmacked by a slow gain creeping up on me and my human fluids took control of my being, not being able to let go of losses. Yesterday i got my butt handed to me by a friggin sudden spearhead, at great volume, about 80 on average. Day before yesterday i acted like a stupid child when i lost, yesterday i took it like a warriors (for freedom and peace) battlewound.

I am getting really interested in Volumes today. It would seem that an average volume of 70-80> is invariably B2 breakage point. Now its ok it volume shoots to that area every minute once in a while, but if it stays there, things are too wild. I need to go back and have a look at that post i made about 4 types of weather.


The efficency of my RSI seem heavily dependent on volume, as well as the borders (They are close kin to eachoter mathematically). At 80/20 seem like a good line to have, at sane/regular volumes at about 65<, beyond that it means slim to none.

So lets see now, the former hypothesis types was a bit hard to categorize PA in.
So i think this might be better.

Regular nighttime/Lunch PA: Below 40, once in a while a spike above for one candle, then back below this.

Regular, good, nice daytime PA: Some below 40, some above, but almost never above 80.

Wild times, stay away PA: Never below 40, often at 80, some even above 80.


So one type less, because it was hard to caracterize into 4 categorizes. One could get the idea that weather changes to rapidly that thinking like this has no use. That is sort of true, but after 7-8 am ish London time, PA dont change in extremes, but rather little by little.


Right now it seems capped between 40 and 80, which is getting a bit to wild. Its very possible that other border calculations and the like could be taken into affect at thos times, but my experience so far with trying to find some settings for that has not been good. It is of course very possible that it cannot be done.

Very important to notice here is the fact that at any rate, two winning positions/day is a good target. One is not good considering margin of errors, being tired and the like. As a matter of empirical fact i know that about 14/17 is possible since i have done it, a target of 2 does not seem impossible.

However, theoretical risk must be weighed in, not only actual win/loss ratio of positions. And of course Win/Loss ratio capitalwise must be weighed in.


Considering IF, weahter calculations can be done, then i think current SL and MM in general need to be revised in order to optimate profits, particularly when it comes to the issue of catastrophic theoretical maxium loss.


I think i need to live with the fact that i cant have less faith in the Borders then i used to. Theyre efficency as S/R need to calculated based upon volume, and many other things of course.

On top of that i think i need to learn to discard opurtunities that would seem about .75 probability of profit. Opurtunities need to be closer to .85 or above probability, to counteract the fact that SL is bigger then TP as a matter of fact.

And i need to learn to maybe stare at the screen a whole day without putting any money on the table.


And a two category weather:

The good shit about volume 50 and something like that

The crazy shit, more then that.

And in effect, this is the practical distinction, to trade or not to trade.

I would need an indie, programmable with a set period, that shows the average volume being traded in that period. Will look around for that.

15:51 Didnt find it, have to measure it with my eye. Besides if i get use to that its better then using an average, since i wont be subjected to lag. I think that taking volume into account is probably one of the last pieces of my puzzle. As long as i do my thing and respect volume, news and the warning channel, i think im pretty much in the green.

15:55 The euro is going DOWN, smacking through a few floors on the way. Maybe even smacking through thursdays low, opening up some serious space below.

My Demo account took some beating yesterday so at the moment im filling it up with some high risk doe. I am removing the objects produced by the script, so i dont confuse them with real money trades.

So ive been boring myself to death with computergames yesterday and today. I got so bored that i even traded the demo account for fun. And no matter what, sticking to never ever holding something beyond M20 is STILL a good idea, and never ever putting ANY positions at something other then the B2 and B3 at daytime, is STILL a good idea. So yeah, i really have reason to do what i do, even when its really crazy like at G20 shite. Volumes sometimes spike to 150 and above today. But, with a good size account it would still seem possible to make a lot of doe a day like today.

There where some more 0.12 but they didnt make it on one screen, but they where a couple of E profit mostly and and some a couple of loss.

So that means two things: Even though i was bored and acted like an idiot if it where real money, profits could be made a day like today with double normal volatility. Even though there is extreme event like today, there is a lot of quants that keep theyre servers going, and that obviously are making pretty nifty profits, even today.

A third thing it means is that exhaustion alone, isnt much to hang in the christmas tree, meaning, DONT TRADE IT. Its not combinable with a thing like a RSI, there is no connection. Especially since all moves, can either decrease in strength (Gainer) or (Decrease), and, sometimes that changes as the move is running. And i cant see any systemacy to this, other then that when it comes to physical, moving S/R borders, which is something (function) completely other.

So i guess i answered the question if anybody is trading today, and if there is any use in trading a day like this.

But if i tried making money this way with current account that would hardly amount to chewing gum money. (And i dont chew a lot of gum)

I am seeing less and less of chaos in the market. So i guess quantum mechanics dont apply to this thing.


I should make some working hypothesis about correlation between borders and volume, so one specific volume correspond to one border. Somehow i should fit in RSI into that equation. Im thinking since a current setting seem to do so good at averages of about 40-50 volume, perhaps another is well suited for say volumes of 80 or something like that.

Finally, because of popular request, upgraded name to LV26.


Reintroduced one of my old friends: The slow RSI, since i incorporated the CCI into my thinking, instead of my wiev.

This is work in progress:

Volume 25/min = B1 is at optimum

Volume 55/min = B2 is at optimum & RSI is put out of use at optimum level.

Volume 75/min = B2 is compromised, B3 is in effect, if any trading to be done at all, preferably only to save the first, if at all.


Below 40 is regular nighttime

At Ma flip, that, single individual candle often gets a lot of volume.


This might seem harsh, but at a 90% accuracy, no pips are bad pips.

Right now volumes about 40, its early but thats just perfect.

Keiser is talking about buy physical silver to take a crap on JP Morgans front porch and kick theyre teeth in. Its a lot better idea then pick your belly button. Thing is the physical stuff costs a bit more then futures, but on the other hand, the futures arent backed by real silver, probably. But the problem is, nobody really knows how much more shorting of silver Morgan can do, Ive heard silver would be above 50 if they would have to cover those shorts. So what if they just keep adding to those positions, pouring near infinity of money into it? So this idea is only good to the extent that theyre money is finite, and im not so sure it is.

08:52 Right now its capped trying to break free like freddy mercury

09:17 Got out of a hairy one, on top. Plunge, then plunge, stop for 10 min break and then kiss the 20. B2 aint got my trust no more today. Quite strong EA opinion consindering volumes sometimes below 40. In the upmove it kissed the 75 line though, first time since right before 8 am. That made a 9 pip gap between the 20 and the 69, in about 20 candles, a pretty powerfull move.

09:53 This thing is going down the hill on a bobsled.

10:42 I think i want to build an AI that gather all the capital and commoditites in the world and redistribute it among the poorest, going up from the bottom. So Goldman sachs employees get about 2 cents maybe, per 160 years.

11:12 Boring crap, its magnetising between pivots, from DPV down to ms1. Kind of looks like down to DS1 if there isnt any unsuspected move up through 200.

11:40 And after that, colonies that are non governed, non monetary type perhaps would be introduced to the world. They would grow out of the minds of people, without much planning or intent. There could be no law there, no prisons and no permanent organisations.

2.5+2.5+1.75+1 equals 7.75. Thats probably a sane way of allocating SL in parts of total account. Or 5x+5x+3x+2x = 10x. Of course that might seem kind of strange, but in pips the last SL is smaller then the first, so lot size increases, although not maximum money lost on that position.

12:53 I need to prioritize, either make money now, or prove that i can make money in the long run. The first is risky, the second is not. The first i can make an income on, the other i cant make an income on.

12:58 1157 GMT [Dow Jones] USD speculators have got it wrong, says Forex Focus by Nicholas Hastings. The latest data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that while they reduced their extreme USD short positions slightly, after the Fed's QEII announcement on Nov. 3, they are still holding shorts at extraordinarily high levels. But, with U.S. bond yields now rising rather than falling, with the risk of contagion among euro-zone peripherals still increasing, and with euro-zone growth about to falter, support for the USD is only likely to grow. ([email protected])

Mm yeah i bet that whats dowjones company wants people to think.

Tarpley is talking about US affairs in mideast and about a new new deal.


14:28 Coming close to old floor, if we go through this, there is a lot of space underneath. US news coming in next minute.

14:40 It might be a good thing to assume that volume needs to dip below 40 before entering. I also like to see 15min volumes below 850.

15:13 Dow jones test is just getting to my borders and stopping there. Looks like they are trying to scare the euro upwards or something.

15:19 Right now its having a crack at those slow MAs on top.

Some of our swedish shithead prosecutors needs to get fired. It absolutely boggles my mind how a complete idiot like this could ever have a job that requires and use of reasoning at all. Its evident shes been drinking a lot more coffee and sitting on her lazy god damn ass a lot more then getting some serious work done.


15:46 1442 GMT [Dow Jones] Obama administration officials heard an earful about the Federal Reserve's $600 billion quantitative easing effort at the G-20 last week, in part because some foreign officials don't understand the central bank's autonomy. So said Lael Brainard, the Treasury Department's under secretary for international affairs, who told an audience in Washington on Monday that "many countries around the world didn't seem to understand we do have a truly independent central bank." ([email protected])

Independent as in? From what? The people and its well being and will?

16:08 In a 0.1 lot, every cent on silver futures is 5 euros. So each dollar on the silver price is 500 euros.


I forgot: 10/13 +

Adjusted SL intelligently, to reflect empirical conditions. Now 3x, varying only in pip SL, not total money of each lot, and thus varying lot size, but not other parameters mentioned. All the while considering Humes wise thinking: Just because something has happend again and again, is really no reassurance that it will happen again (contradicting the acumulative inductivism theory (or in such name attributed logical paradigm)).

Im really thinking about last weeks disapointments here. In this manner: Given a set of einsteinian/euclidean circumstances, the outcome of such an affair is given (god does not play dice). And i must operate under such parameters it would seem, oterwise there is no parameters to operate under (in a moderate (as opposed to worst) case scenario). Meaning that chaotic/quantum mechanical markets might be the case, but operating under such axioms (and/or working hypothesis) becomes very cumbersome. Im not here stating it cant be done, just that i have not pondered how in any serious manner.

Therefore this is treated as axiomatic: A given set of circumstances C, must invariably lead to a relevant, given scenario sC. It cannout be calculated to be otherwise, because otherwise is not a calculation, it is guesswork or insanity.

It seems like that when price is aiming for the M15 200 then its often in a rush to get there, in order to have a nice chance of going through it.

07:50 and some minutes before. Thats peculiar. PA went really onesided and slow at pretty much the exact moment that price came into the middle of slow M15 channel. It is relevant that it is also in the middle of M15 warning channel.

Ergo sum: The middle is bias to nothing, so nobody wants to move it.

This night crept through a floor but move was tired and and got bought up 10 pips below that floor.

08:23 Hmm i feel like drinking XL cola. There is some sort of special taste to that stuff that sets it off from coke and pepsi.

08:53 M15 Mas are on top, floor below, nobody wants to do anything: If it goes up, it needs to go fast to get through, and the same if it drops. Added to that there was a push to get upwards early this morning, but it didnt stay through the M15 200.

11:20 There was some mucking about before lunch. M15 volume is touching 850 line.

http://www.youtube.com/user/thealexj...12/b_LhkpQ7kTQ

At about 12:20 in this part is most interesting. Tells a lot about Jones, Venturas and Nelsons outlook on the Govt. Its clearly three variations of the same general idea: The optimist, the pessimist and the "more of the same old".

13:07 Price has been battling it out with M15 MAs all day, and this really seem like a long day.

14:10 Goldman sachs and wall street *uck things up, now volume is capped at 40 and above so now this thing aint so much fun.

15:21 Its getting close to the floor, two tries for the upside has failed and MAs are creeping in from the top. Floor is almost coming into natural wiev on M1, so this thing is going to have to decide if not today so at least tomorrow if it wants to go up or down. If it tries to stay here it looks like its going to get pushed down, and people are getting tired of trying to go up.

15:26 Im tired of this and my account is telling me to stop while im ahead. So peace out.

11/14 days +

I just figured out something very important. Ive been having the problem of figuring out how to treat S/R in the form of M15 MAs and the MAs of M1 too. The issue being that they arent really certain to do anything. I think that i have a way of doing this now: Perceive them as increase in volatility. This is a general certainty. Its really the potential volatility that increases around them: It needs to go fast to get through, and if it doesnt its gonna drop fast and that bit.

Not enough volume to do down, not enough to go up, and it would seem the money knows this.

On the second screen: This is between the 69 and the 200 on M15, nobody knows shit, and theyre just buying cause nobody is stopping them.

I am pretty confident about my 3x SL system. There could be some days that i need to use it a bit diffrently, the perfect days, with just about enough volume, those days i could aim for a single position, to optimize profits. In that case i should use the third position, only, and just takes SL and TPS as they are, never updating SL, and just closing a TP if it stops or gets seriously iffy.

It would really seem i do most and the best of my strategising when im not trading. I can just analyze charts from memory when im resting and see how i should have done to get out on top. Its not relevant that my memory is exact, since there is no point in trying to be exact, because its not exactly the same thing that happens again, just something relatively similar.

If volume is even near correct, there are things happening below 0.1 pips, and there is things being registered that dont show graphically.

It seems the space between the 69 and the 200 on M15 is dangerous territory, meaning moves are really fast there, too fast often, so just as i did for the 20 to 69 on M1 space, i did the same with the ribbon indie for the M15, to show it clear as day that this is iffy territory. I went back and had a look and it seems to hold up pretty good.

Meaning: When price gets in this space, it often rushes to the 200, ignoring B2 and other S/R obstacles.

14:25 Good example, just now as i was writing this.

H1 It is possible to have borders of varying degrees from important MA, that reflects moving S/R under most all market circumstances.

For an example if volumes starts getting above 75, could perhaps a B4 come into play, while leaving B1 and B2 and making them uninteresting?

If yes, that would be very interesting. Answering this question could take 3-4 years, and it would still be a reasonable research effort. Of course just making a border that sort of seems to work would take about 15 minutes.

n 1997, King's son Dexter Scott King met with Ray, and publicly supported Ray's efforts to obtain a new trial.[144] Two years later, Coretta Scott King, King's widow, along with the rest of King's family, won a wrongful death claim against Loyd Jowers and "other unknown co-conspirators". Jowers claimed to have received $100,000 to arrange King's assassination. The jury of six whites and six blacks found Jowers guilty and that government agencies were party to the assassination.[145] William F. Pepper represented the King family in the trial.[146] King biographer David Garrow disagrees with William F. Pepper's claims that the government killed King.[147] He is supported by author Gerald Posner who has researched and written about the assassination.

From wikipedia

So the US govt agencies killed Martin Luther King

8:50 to 9 area: Actually got one better then when i put the script to work, for once, actually doubled the profit from when i used the script, it smacked my TP before the order of the script was processed at Alpari. We are talking about 0.5 to 1.5 seconds of difference here but thats all it takes. Lyckily i updated the preset TP to reflect real good case conditions, in the few seconds after order placement. That alone was almost 1% of total account, thats a good morning confidence booster, telling me i am slightly less insane then i might seem.

09:28 Volumes are pretty good, id want a slight decrease for it to get perfect, but its still just below 850/15 minutes, so its still definetly very interesting.

So long as nothing very unexpected happens 12/15 days +

10:34 This very nice calm PA gives me a good chance to look at some other pairs. I should start preparing for a world without the dollar. There will be a LOT of ruccus in very near term future when dollar depreciates further. M15 would seem to be the way to go, since the ratio of paid spread needs to be low enough/ profitable trade, something like 10% is very acceptable and perhaps 20% if a nice safe thing presents itself. Though its hard for me to say excactly what impact on other pairs there will be without the dollar as is. For in instance, how will eur/jpy behave after such a big change? Very hard to say, but if things remain sort of the same its very possible to do some type of 2 position system with the same SL in money but the first SL tighther then the first. Though for this pair, maybe one opurtunity would present itself every 2 days, much depending on what risk should be accepted. Acting at present short timeframe channel would generate a few opurtunities/day.

12:27 Price rests below or untop of B1 a lot today. A lot of people should just stop trading, that would be optimal, id like about 30% less volume then average, that would be perfect, and no idiotic human "all in" trading. Pretty much like today, no sweat, no fuss, no problem.

12:39 Volume at 20 for a few candles and a lot below 40. I guess the concept of lunch is making a hell of a comeback today.

13:58 Federal bank of corporate totalitarianism is speaking at 2 and onwards so no trading then i think.

18:09 Anyway, i made some stuff for daily, seems i misplaced the stuff i made earlier. If i want good MAs for that ill have to go back and analyze, the usual set dont seem to do much good, but i guess as long as i dont make better ones they will have to do. I was mainly interested in comparing volumes, but i need some other stuff to measure things, otherwise its just candles in empty space. Anyhow right now its in the MAs.