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  • #2,881
  • Edited 7:19pm Nov 12, 2010 5:45pm | Edited 7:19pm
Thanx for answer... but i have extra question))

Why you didnt take pinbars on daily 10november??
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  • #2,882
  • Nov 13, 2010 2:40am Nov 13, 2010 2:40am
Quoting makron
Thanx for answer... but i have extra question))

Why you didnt take pinbars on daily 10november??
Welleven if I did want to take the pin on EU it didn't break so the trade wouldn't have been activated.

But I wouldnt' have taken it for the following reasons:

My bias has been strongly short for the Euro and look at the preceding days bars - strongly bearish bars so in order to stop and reverse price in its tracks you're gonna need a super confluenced location to do it.

Is this location it - not IMO it's not. Look at where the bar closes and what it's heading into on my chart (zoom out on a daily to see teh area more closely - I've attache a 4HR to so you can see what I'm looking at) - in my opinion it's heading straight into resistance and thus just looking at the location of the bar (yes a PPZ but nothing special), the bar itself, what is just above it and what it's trying to reverse (basically 3 days of strong bearish action) I'd say it's got little chance of doing that. But it didn't break so there was no trade anyway.

For AU the pin did break but agani I did not consider this a great setup. You can see again that the close of the bar was poor and you can see it even better on the 4HR chart it basically closed below resistance.

Plus for me the whole market sentiment has shifted to long USD and increasing risk aversion this week so I ddn't see this changing overnight so didnt even consider a long off the daily charts on USD pairs but both of those setups from a technical perspective were not great setups IMO.

Look at where A|U is now that is a better location for a long and if you look at the 4HR chart you can see that price did in fact react and bounce at this area but there was no follow through (so if I had taken it it would have been a BE trade) which shows the strength of the bears at the moment.

Hope that helps.
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  • #2,883
  • Nov 13, 2010 5:00am Nov 13, 2010 5:00am
Quoting lovejoy80
Welleven if I did want to take the pin on EU it didn't break so the trade wouldn't have been activated.

But I wouldnt' have taken it for the following reasons:

My bias has been strongly short for the Euro and look at the preceding days...
Notice after the pin had formed on AU price formed a daily continuation BEOB which closed below the support and RN. This was a good daily PA setup and it retraced to exactly where you'd expect it to before falling to the next FTA (retraced back to the RN previous support to test as resistance). Scratching my head tihnking about how I managed to miss that easy obvious trade hmmmm.
  • #2,884
  • Nov 14, 2010 6:24pm Nov 14, 2010 6:24pm
Hi Mark,
Firstly please let me introduce myself. I’m a fellow Brit but am now living in Australia. I recently resigned from an investment bank to trade prop on my personal account. While I wouldn’t really say I’m a FF junky I have closely followed your blog while it was active… actually a little disappointed its fallen off the radar but can understand the time constraints.... and good to see some new posts recently!!

Anyway I have a trade I thought you might like…. (I’m more of a fundamentalist turned chartist… which is why I like your blog)

Long Silver: Fundamentally I don’t think things get better than silver and have been waiting for a pullback in the otherwise one way trend to hop on and I’m hopping now is the time

I’ve show it on the 4hr chart

Currently the price (26.04) is sitting just below the 61.8 retracement of the last bull move 24-29.41. At 25 we have confluence of a) neckline back from the 12 Nov b) 78.6 Fib c) A trendline which has held since August.... and if you need one more it is 25....

Personally I’m planning to go long here half my intended position adding another half if I see it trade down to 25.50 or alternatively adding half if it breaks the yellow trendline. Both with stops at the 24.75. As for exits I’m a bit of a holder so would be looking for the recent high of at least 2900 (which is 3R)

Anyway after a few months of taking ideas from FF I thought I would give something back

Obviously usual disclaimer applies.
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  • #2,885
  • Nov 15, 2010 1:56am Nov 15, 2010 1:56am
Quoting lovejoy80
Welleven if I did want to take the pin on EU it didn't break so the trade wouldn't have been activated.

But I wouldnt' have taken it for the following reasons:

My bias has been strongly short for the Euro and look at the preceding days bars - strongly bearish bars so in order to stop and reverse price in its tracks you're gonna need a super confluenced location to do it.

Is this location it - not IMO it's not. Look at where the bar closes and what it's heading into on my chart (zoom out on a daily to see teh area more closely - I've attache...
Big thanks for good answer!
  • #2,886
  • Nov 15, 2010 4:11am Nov 15, 2010 4:11am
What do you think about this pinbar? I dont understand well about PPZ... i wanted to take this trade, but it seems to me, that price break PPZ and now PPZ work like support. And else one reason no take trade, that last fer day was very strong uptrend
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  • #2,887
  • Nov 15, 2010 4:20am Nov 15, 2010 4:20am
Quoting makron
What do you think about this pinbar? I dont understand well about PPZ... i wanted to take this trade, but it seems to me, that price break PPZ and now PPZ work like support. And else one reason no take trade, that last fer day was very strong uptrend
Personally I passed on this trade because the close of the pin bar was not below the PPZ. I want to trade away from PPZ's and not into them and thus because of the close it was an easy pass for me.

Also, I don't like to trade that much on Monday's. Monday is often a very slow, choppy day with lack of momentumk so I'm more caituos that normal.
  • #2,888
  • Nov 15, 2010 4:23am Nov 15, 2010 4:23am
Quoting zentrader108
Hi Mark,
Firstly please let me introduce myself. I’m a fellow Brit but am now living in Australia. I recently resigned from an investment bank to trade prop on my personal account. While I wouldn’t really say I’m a FF junky I have closely followed your blog while it was active… actually a little disappointed its fallen off the radar but can understand the time constraints.... and good to see some new posts recently!!

Anyway I have a trade I thought you might like…. (I’m more of a fundamentalist turned chartist… which is why I like your blog)...
I've got a pending short order on the break of the weekly pin on Silver with 25 the obvious 1st target area. For me I wouldnt take a touch trade at this area. There is a PP| at the RN with maybea TL depending on when/if price gets there but I'll be waiting for some PA (I don't use any fibs apart from 50/61) as I've never traded Silver before so I dont like taking touch trades on pairs that I dont know well.

I only take touch trades that I trade regullarly as you do built up a a sense / feel for the pairs and setups that will and wont work out.
  • #2,889
  • Nov 15, 2010 4:25am Nov 15, 2010 4:25am
Quoting lovejoy80
Personally I passed on this trade because the close of the pin bar was not below the PPZ. I want to trade away from PPZ's and not into them and thus because of the close it was an easy pass for me.

Also, I don't like to trade that much on Monday's. Monday is often a very slow, choppy day with lack of momentumk so I'm more caituos that normal.
You could also consider this a touch trade long setup too...put a fib from the recent swing high/low...combined that with the RN/PPZ and you've got a valid touch trade setup IMO.
  • #2,890
  • Nov 15, 2010 5:20am Nov 15, 2010 5:20am
Quoting lovejoy80
I've got a pending short order on the break of the weekly pin on Silver with 25 the obvious 1st target area. .


And that’s why I like your blog.... I hadn’t even seen the weekly pinbar – as I said I am a fundamentalist first but charting is the best prescription to have in your glasses.
I have to say while initially it moved nicely in asia morning a wall st journal article and $ strength has spoiled some of the fun.... It left me a bit concerned how it gave up the ground so easily so have hedged about half of the dollar component with DXZ and eur/usd... we may both make money!
Anyway thanks for the reply and good luck – I must say your performance is quite phenomenal.... I had a good week last week but 40ish % is better than any trader I’ve ever worked with. You should go knocking on some doors in Mayfair!!!
  • #2,891
  • Nov 15, 2010 11:12am Nov 15, 2010 11:12am
Hi to all, my today trades:

EUR/CHF 1H, PPZ, PA. Closed 1/2 position +45, second 1/2 losed at BE. +1%
GBP/USD 1H, BEOB, PPZ was broken downwards. But price went against me and hit SL. -2%
Gold 1H, heavy PPZ, PA, 61fib. still in trade (+850pips)
USD/CHF 4H (dont look at TL ) Try to take touchtrade in Fibo61 and PPZ confluense... but hit SL -2%
USD/JPY 4H. PPZ, PA, Fibo50. Still in trade

LJ, if you have time. Show mistakes
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  • #2,892
  • Nov 15, 2010 11:13am Nov 15, 2010 11:13am
Quoting zentrader108
And that’s why I like your blog.... I hadn’t even seen the weekly pinbar – as I said I am a fundamentalist first but charting is the best prescription to have in your glasses.
I have to say while initially it moved nicely in asia morning a wall st journal article and $ strength has spoiled some of the fun.... It left me a bit concerned how it gave up the ground so easily so have hedged about half of the dollar component with DXZ and eur/usd... we may both make money!
[font=Calibri][size=3]Anyway...
My performance is a result of the following:

1. a few years very hard work at this business;
2. learning what techniques suit my personality, becoming very proficient at knowing what setups to take (by lots and lots of backtesting and forward testing) so it beomes second nature;
3. finally and most importantly being able to control / eliminate my emotions as far as possible.

I believe most people don't make it in trading because they don't approach it in the right way - as a long term structured business. This is partly because in most jobs that people currently do there exists structure already, they have to make decisions within an structured rule based environment...with trading you have to make that structured rules based environment yourself and most people are not capable (or don't realise this is what they need to do) of doing this.

Secondly most people don't appreciate how inefficient the human brain is in relation to becoming a consistently profitable at any form of 'gambling'. It is a maor hurdle that needs to be overcome and most people again dont' realise this and can't acknoweldge the effect of emotions on their decision making let alone know how to do something about it. This is something most people are unlikely experience in their current jobs so it is a completely new 'feeling'

The first part...learning a method that suits your personality is relatively straightforward...it just requires patience and a lot of hard work. The second part (controlling your emotions) is much harder and require a lot of self-analysis and in some cases this hurdle can never be overcome.

Just my little ramble.

lol I don't need to knock on any doors, they come and knock on my door
  • #2,893
  • Nov 15, 2010 12:07pm Nov 15, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting makron
Hi to all, my today trades:

EUR/CHF 1H, PPZ, PA. Closed 1/2 position +45, second 1/2 losed at BE. +1%
GBP/USD 1H, BEOB, PPZ was broken downwards. But price went against me and hit SL. -2%
Gold 1H, heavy PPZ, PA, 61fib. still in trade (+850pips)
USD/CHF 4H (dont look at TL ) Try to take touchtrade in Fibo61 and PPZ confluense... but hit SL -2%
USD/JPY 4H. PPZ, PA, Fibo50. Still in trade

LJ, if you have time. Show mistakes
I can't really comment on whether you made mistakes or not as each trader is different. for exam ple one touch trade trader would take different setups to another etc it depends on the types of setups you want to take within your own rules. I'll provide my own thoughts as to what made me pass on all of these setups though (lol).

1. ECHF - that is one tiny pin, I would want a higher high up 1.3480 and just a bigger pin generally to take a short. Plus I am currently long on this pair based on the daily BUOB

2.GU - I don't see a 1HR BEOB? I only see a BUOB - I took a trade on GU which I'll share in a moment

3. Gold - a good area for a bounce IMO but that again was too small a pin ther for me to take it.

4. UCHF - for me the touch trade was only valid on Friday as this is where this area was 'touched' for the first time...the longer it hangs around this area the more likely it will break up...the very nature of the touch trades I take is that I want a strong rejection due to the level of confluence that there is...the fact this didn't happen on Friday made me think it had a higher chance of going up.

5. TL, RN, PPZ confluence @ 83 . The 4HR BEOB wasn't a good bar for me as the close didnt close below those previous bar highs. The 1HR BEOB looked better as there was some small space to those former bar lows and highs which is where it is at now, but I decided to pass on it.
  • #2,894
  • Nov 15, 2010 12:13pm Nov 15, 2010 12:13pm
My trades for today:

1. ECHF - daily BUOB - will cut it if it gets below 1HR support I reckon
2. GU confluene of TL, PPZ and a good rejection of the 1.600 RN took profit at FTA +0.77R
3. EU - Breakout, pullback plus 1HR PA. Took profit at FTA +0.71R

Happy to take some small profit on a Monday rather than look for bigger moves.

I also have pending orders on silver weekly PA and AU weekly PA

Total for today +1.48R
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  • #2,895
  • Nov 15, 2010 2:17pm Nov 15, 2010 2:17pm
Hello LJ, this was a nice touch trade (PPZ and fibo)...did you see it?
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  • #2,896
  • Nov 15, 2010 2:47pm Nov 15, 2010 2:47pm
Quoting ale73a
Hello LJ, this was a nice touch trade (PPZ and fibo)...did you see it?
I dont look at NU that much to be honest so yeah I missed it. I would have passed most likely on this though as I thin the 61fib and daily PPZ is a stronger area - daily and weekly PPZ which is what I prefer.

Also I'm not overly keen on going short USD as all the USD pairs are in a nice downtrend IMO so I'm more keen on trying to get into the the current trend.
  • #2,897
  • Nov 15, 2010 2:51pm Nov 15, 2010 2:51pm
My Silver weekly Pin has now borken so my trade is in play which is less than ideal as I'll have to either set a TP @25 or leave it as be off to bed soon.

I didn't do it on this occassion (was busy most of today doing other things) but on big PA like this I try to find a way to get in at a discount...so the PA is showing the direction and can I find a good setup to get in with a much lower risk entry. So I'm looking for some lower TF PA or a touchntrade setup.

You can see on the daily chart that price essentially had a breakout on Fridya of some former bar lows and it retested the area perfectly today before heading lower...this would have been a great discounted entry to the weekly pin
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  • #2,898
  • Nov 15, 2010 3:25pm Nov 15, 2010 3:25pm
Quoting lovejoy80
I dont look at NU that much to be honest so yeah I missed it. I would have passed most likely on this though as I thin the 61fib and daily PPZ is a stronger area - daily and weekly PPZ which is what I prefer.

Also I'm not overly keen on going short USD as all the USD pairs are in a nice downtrend IMO so I'm more keen on trying to get into the the current trend.
Thank you for your view, good night
  • #2,899
  • Nov 16, 2010 12:30am Nov 16, 2010 12:30am
Quoting lovejoy80
My Silver weekly Pin has now borken so my trade is in play which is less than ideal as I'll have to either set a TP @25 or leave it as be off to bed soon.
Thankfully putting some of my silver against euros and the basket (DXZ) has made this trade less painful. I also have some shorts on US 10yr which has found some recent correlation so there has been no impact on my bottom line.
Here are three of the rules I go by 1) never add to a losing position 2) never alter the trade plan 3) never break more than one rule at a time. Hence I’ve decided to keep my position but not add to it at the 25.50 level
I see what your saying on the daily and it is most definitely a sign of weakness – I think the battle will drawn in the circle but the bears certainly have the short term momentum on their side.
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  • #2,900
  • Nov 16, 2010 1:58am Nov 16, 2010 1:58am
Quoting lovejoy80
My performance is a result of the following:

1. a few years very hard work at this business;
2. learning what techniques suit my personality, becoming very proficient at knowing what setups to take (by lots and lots of backtesting and forward testing) so it beomes second nature;
3. finally and most importantly being able to control / eliminate my emotions as far as possible.

I believe most people don't make it in trading because they don't approach it in the right way - as a long term structured business.
Yes you are preaching to the converted. Trading is first and foremost a challenge for the mind. I have a lot of structure in my in my trading which manifests in a big kick ass spreadie. I also have a business plan which although currently not going entirely to plan gives me belief in what I am doing. Without either it would be very easy to fall into an emotionally driven capital Armageddon. There is a random element to trading which can never be underestimated but the human element can be controlled.

My edge, if you like, is all mental. I practice yoga every day and it is what I use to control my highs and lows. It’s why the whole Zen thing..... it’s not quite finished or proof read but I have a website
http://www.thezentrader.net/Site/Zen_Home.html
anyway just how i get through the trading day..... we all need something:-)


As for knocking on doors if the house you are in is working for you then there is no need to change and personally I think it’s harder with other people’s money anyway. That said 40% in a week is remarkable compared to the crème of the industry and you should be proud and cognisant of the achievement. If made 40% last week I’d take the rest of the year off.... but that sort of approach has its own debate :-)

Do you use twitter at all or is your cyberspace excerpts limited to FF?
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