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Silent Service Method

  • #11,281
  • Nov 15, 2010 10:32am Nov 15, 2010 10:32am
another GBP chart that looks interesting. A little ugly at the moment, but could be forming a huge triangle in favor of the Pound....still a long way to go though......
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  • #11,282
  • Nov 15, 2010 1:50pm Nov 15, 2010 1:50pm
Quoting stewrigh
I also struggle with this stuff. Whats the saying? If its in the news its in the price.

But with Ireland and their probs IMO it could go one of two ways. i.e. it could result in Ireland leaving the Euro, which could be positive for the Euro, or they take a bailout and they kick the can down the road a bit.

The wider implication is the domino effect, because whatever happens in Ireland will likely happen in the other peripheral countries.

IMO I think the Euro will survive but there will only be a couple of countries in it(Germany and France...
Any country even considering seriously to leave the euro would probably send the euro south like an express train. Reason - if Ireland or Greece or anyone can leave the euro, what's to say Germany will want to stay...

The euro zone has to show a unanimous face of stability to the markets or the game may be up before you can say "Was is los?"

The Irish debacle is a good example of how something that has been known to anyone who cared to research even just a tad, suddenly becomes the news for some inexplicable reason. People who think that the markets are always right and that all known info is priced in correctly need a reality check.

Markets are just as stupid and silly as the people they're made up of. In any case, Ireland is one of the smallest countries in the EU and bailing them out should'nt be much of a problem.

The problem is that doing so will again spark fears of a domino effect, real or imagined fear I do not know but CW may very well be right that we're in for a rerun of the previous euro slaughter movie.
  • #11,283
  • Edited 3:16pm Nov 15, 2010 2:47pm | Edited 3:16pm
Alright buddy... I am really starting to scare myself; and I am not sure how I am doing it -- but I seem to be doing it.

AUD/USD:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=25175

I closed out my limit short at 9910 because I seen price fall short of the entry at 9910 by 20 pips or so (previous upper TL) yesterday. I printed up the next trend line and watched price power on through the current, less steep TL.

Why is it that this 9910 still had power? To me, I had written it off... due to price looking like what appeared to be a hole in the bottom. The new TL had been broken through to the top side. If you can't tell, confidence is a big one for me right now in the TL trading. And what's even crazier, I have managed to find the tops/bottoms within 10 pips. I imagine that will change real quick, because that is not what I am trying to do. Maybe just luck at this moment in time. I just don't understand why 9910 was still the place to be.
  • #11,284
  • Nov 15, 2010 4:59pm Nov 15, 2010 4:59pm
Venice, for what it's worth, here is my take on the Aussie, and why I am not interested.....
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  • #11,285
  • Nov 15, 2010 5:04pm Nov 15, 2010 5:04pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Any country even considering seriously to leave the euro would probably send the euro south like an express train. Reason - if Ireland or Greece or anyone can leave the euro, what's to say Germany will want to stay...
Here is the simple truth: Most Germans I have spoke to aren't overly fond of the Euro anyway, and the German government understands this. The real question is: "Why in the hell did the Germans give up the Mark in the first place?"

Quote
The euro zone has to show a unanimous face of stability to the markets or the game may be up before you can say "Was is loss?"

The Irish debacle is a good example of how something that has been known to anyone who cared to research even just a tad, suddenly becomes the news for some inexplicable reason. People who think that the markets are always right and that all known info is priced in correctly need a reality check.

Markets are just as stupid and silly as the people they're made up of. In any case, Ireland is one of the smallest...
Markets are stupid. So are a lot of people unfortunately. People drive the market, yet most traders seem to believe in the "wisdom" of the markets. Bollocks I say, because if there was real wisdom - 2008 wouldn't have happened in the fashion it did.

Quote
The problem is that doing so will again spark fears of a domino effect, real or imagined fear I do not know but CW may very well be right that we're in for a rerun of the previous euro slaughter movie.
I will do you one better: The Euro only has so long to go. I truly believe this experiment will ultimately fail. Not this year......but someday.
  • #11,286
  • Nov 16, 2010 5:17am Nov 16, 2010 5:17am
Quoting o990l6mh
Any country even considering seriously to leave the euro would probably send the euro south like an express train. Reason - if Ireland or Greece or anyone can leave the euro, what's to say Germany will want to stay...

The euro zone has to show a unanimous face of stability to the markets or the game may be up before you can say "Was is los?"

The Irish debacle is a good example of how something that has been known to anyone who cared to research even just a tad, suddenly becomes the news for some inexplicable reason. People who think...
Good post. However, even if "People who think that the markets are always right and that all known info is priced in correctly need a reality check." is true - like Keynes said: markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Many feel that at the moment there is a depreciation war going on, and to be honest, I think depreciation was the main reason why the Greek episode took so long (EU states had no rush to fix it, as depreciation pulled them out of economic slump).
The PIGS are the EU's main weapon in the depreciation war, as the ECB itself takes a somewhat responsible approach to monetary policy, whereas the US has Helicopter Ben.

Long term I actually remain bearish on the USD. There is a huge trade deficit, an economy largely based on no value-adding industries (I believe over half of the US income is earned in financial services; and the system is over-the-top on lawsuits). Until now this has been balanced by enormous capital inflows, but Asia is starting to realize this is unsustainable. Last but not least Chinese rating agencies are already downgrading US government debt. I wouldn't be surprised if the USD will be breaking lows in 2011.
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #11,287
  • Edited 6:43am Nov 16, 2010 5:59am | Edited 6:43am
Quoting Noloqy
Good post. However, even if "People who think that the markets are always right and that all known info is priced in correctly need a reality check." is true - like Keynes said: markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Many feel that at the moment there is a depreciation war going on, and to be honest, I think depreciation was the main reason why the Greek episode took so long (EU states had no rush to fix it, as depreciation pulled them out of economic slump).
The PIGS are the EU's main weapon in the depreciation war,...
The PIGS are the EU's main weapon in the depreciation war, as the ECB itself takes a somewhat responsible approach to monetary policy, whereas the US has Helicopter Ben.

The PIIGS are the problem not the weapon and the main reason they have a problem is becuse of the Euro's one size fits all straightjacket. Normally when a country has a problem it devalues its currency(think US, GB), the PIIGS can't do that because their currency is the Euro.

Long term I actually remain bearish on the USD.

Me too but I'm also slightly more bearish the Euro.

However, even if "People who think that the markets are always right and that all known info is priced in correctly need a reality check." is true - like Keynes said: markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

As a trader I never know or care if the market is right or wrong. But I do know what the price is because the market tells me - so the price is right at the time I trade and I just need to get on the same side. If the price is not 'correct' the market will know before I do and it'll move. If the info isn't in the price atm it sure as hell soon will be. And what the hell did Keynes know about anything, especially economics -LOL.


Many feel that at the moment there is a depreciation war going on, and to be honest, I think depreciation was the main reason why the Greek episode took so long (EU states had no rush to fix it, as depreciation pulled them out of economic slump).

So Greece has pulled out of their slump have they? Has anyone told the Greeks? LOL
__________________
  • #11,288
  • Nov 16, 2010 8:02am Nov 16, 2010 8:02am
Quoting Noloqy
Good post. However, even if "People who think that the markets are always right and that all known info is priced in correctly need a reality check." is true - like Keynes said: markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Many feel that at the moment there is a depreciation war going on, and to be honest, I think depreciation was the main reason why the Greek episode took so long (EU states had no rush to fix it, as depreciation pulled them out of economic slump).
The PIGS are the EU's main weapon in the depreciation war, as...
I am also bearish long-term on the USD......but not as bearish as I am on the EUR. I believe that you are correct, Asia is waking up from it's slumber and realizing that the Dollar isn't helping it's situation at all.

However, there always could be some wort of miracle, and the American government could stop killing off the Dollar. I doubt it, but it could happen.

Actually, let me correct that - it will happen. The question is whether it will be by choice - or because they have to.
  • #11,289
  • Nov 16, 2010 10:28am Nov 16, 2010 10:28am
Quoting clockwork71
I am also bearish long-term on the USD......but not as bearish as I am on the EUR. I believe that you are correct, Asia is waking up from it's slumber and realizing that the Dollar isn't helping it's situation at all.

However, there always could be some wort of miracle, and the American government could stop killing off the Dollar. I doubt it, but it could happen.

Actually, let me correct that - it will happen. The question is whether it will be by choice - or because they have to.
To add my 2c to the current EUR vs USD weakness debate.

The one thing that most people discount is that the wealthiest European nations (i.e - the real European Union) have funded the massive infrastructure investment and political investment that has occurred in all the fringe economies to bring them up to standard. They plan to get fat off the interest repayments on this debt for a long time to come.

There is no incentive for the Germans to leave the Eurozone or let it fracture when they are the creditor to most of these countries. They can have significant political sway over these countries for decades/centuries to come with this debt burden and while this is the case, why on earth would they want that cash cow to hit the slaughterhouse. Sure it may be at a reduced interest rate due to bail outs but it remains control none the less.

I am bearish the Euro and when Faber and Rogers start murmuring that the USD looks over sold then like with the Euro 6months back it is time to buy. I think we will see the EUR much lower here before we see it higher.

The US is playing a game of export inflation and devalue our debt. As long as they are the last country to default on their debts then they have nothing to worry about.

The Eurozone due to its consensus driven make up across so many different national agendas will have to see their currency low for a long period to get out of this mess. From a German perspective, are they better to be the strongest of the beggars and therefore hold the financial and geopolitical aces across Europe or are they better to go it alone, write off masses of loans (tax payers money) essentially as gifts to the peripheral nations and then sit again in the middle of Europe with Russia a polish hop from Berlin and no palpable/unified barrier of protection around it's borders?

There is a national security issue for them here also that they are no doubt considering and in the longer term they need the other countries saddled with their debts so they can be the last man standing from a military and sovereign perspective.

The Poles, Ukranians, Romanians, Austrians, Hungarians and the Alps protect them from Russia and the Turks/Middle East/Asia and the French/Belgians/Netherlands/Iberian Penninsula protect them from a sea borne assault from English/American invasion.

These are often issues ignored by the UK/US/Canada/Australia et al who have very few shared borders (if any) and no real experience or long term historical precedent for being concerned about the issue.

They have zero interest in being alone!

Ireland is allowed to default or leave the EU and I'll eat my hat. They have nothing to gain besides going back to being a real 2nd world country .
  • #11,290
  • Nov 16, 2010 12:18pm Nov 16, 2010 12:18pm
LOL....I didn't see this downside strength coming, so I'm on the sidelines bored.....so I copied this from a gold thread....

It's my new sig.
  • #11,291
  • Edited 3:42pm Nov 16, 2010 3:21pm | Edited 3:42pm
Not to change the subject, but this chart (among others) has been the talk of many a fixed income trader...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Just to recap - this is an ETF comprised 100% of municipal bonds. It's now trading at a 2.5% discount to it's underlying assets (3rd "chart" above) -- I.e. for 97.5 cents, you get a dollar of assets, which either implies that the assets are overvalued or the ETF is undervalued... I guess we'll find out soon who's right, but lets just say, I'm liking the pinbar at 100.

BTW - 4xAddict, interesting analysis as always.
  • #11,292
  • Nov 16, 2010 3:56pm Nov 16, 2010 3:56pm
Quoting clockwork71
Check out the silver and gold charts:

Hey CW, did you get in on those; commodities are crashing!
  • #11,293
  • Nov 16, 2010 6:37pm Nov 16, 2010 6:37pm
Quoting drebin
Hey CW, did you get in on those; commodities are crashing!
No I didn't. I have been busier than a one-armed wallpaper hanger lately. Shopping for a new car. It's going to be either an SUV, which is only a feeble attempt to not buy a van, or a 4 door - which I have never owned in my life.

Hell, I hate automatics. I have always owned 5 speeds, except that short time I drove a '70 GTO Judge that was a 4 speed. (Sadly, that car wasn't mine...)
  • #11,294
  • Nov 16, 2010 11:41pm Nov 16, 2010 11:41pm
I finally updated the video on the front page of forexfantasies.com - someone out there has been giving me grief to do it for about 4 months now.....lol
  • #11,295
  • Nov 17, 2010 1:21am Nov 17, 2010 1:21am
Quoting InfinitySL
Not to change the subject, but this chart (among others) has been the talk of many a fixed income trader...

Attachment

Just to recap - this is an ETF comprised 100% of municipal bonds....
Mate have you noticed the Argentine Bonds and stock market yesterday, I can hear the rumblings of a correction in emerging market bonds and potentially stocks in general.

The second increase in GLD and SLV futures margin requirements that too effect yesterday is also adding to the weakness in PMs.

Looks like the powers that be have decided that its fiat currency or nothing, could see the USD catch a bid here in the near term.
  • #11,296
  • Nov 17, 2010 8:53am Nov 17, 2010 8:53am
Quoting 4xAddict
Mate have you noticed the Argentine Bonds and stock market yesterday, I can hear the rumblings of a correction in emerging market bonds and potentially stocks in general.

The second increase in GLD and SLV futures margin requirements that too effect yesterday is also adding to the weakness in PMs.

Looks like the powers that be have decided that its fiat currency or nothing, could see the USD catch a bid here in the near term.

Very well put. I think that the thirst for metal is getting out of hand, at least from a CB/government perspective. While I think gold will go up in general, it's going to slow down. Why? Because that's the way the game is played.

This movie has played before.
  • #11,297
  • Nov 17, 2010 9:38am Nov 17, 2010 9:38am
Quoting clockwork71
Very well put. I think that the thirst for metal is getting out of hand, at least from a CB/government perspective. While I think gold will go up in general, it's going to slow down. Why? Because that's the way the game is played.

This movie has played before.
The Chinese newspapers just announced they are going to expand their reserves which means they are trying to get out of their speculative longs that are getting a beat down at the moment.

I can hear a panda squealing like a stuck pig as we speak.
  • #11,298
  • Nov 17, 2010 12:54pm Nov 17, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting 4xAddict
The Chinese newspapers just announced they are going to expand their reserves which means they are trying to get out of their speculative longs that are getting a beat down at the moment.

I can hear a panda squealing like a stuck pig as we speak.
Good, someone should pay for all the poisoned dog food and drywall.
  • #11,299
  • Nov 17, 2010 12:58pm Nov 17, 2010 12:58pm

USD/JPY

While going against the trend is always tough, this one is starting to show signs of life because of two different things on this chart:

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  • #11,300
  • Nov 17, 2010 1:55pm Nov 17, 2010 1:55pm
I'll bet a few of you will enjoy this. I think the voices were done w/excel text-to-speech...

Inserted Video
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