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  • #81
  • Feb 7, 2006 11:13am Feb 7, 2006 11:13am
Quoting diallist
Thank you Vegas. That makes sense.

To avoid another post, please allow another question.

I took the futures entry price on the JPY and took the reciprocal to get the spot price. But it was different from the spot price on my chart by a large amount (between 10 & 20 pips as I recall).

Is there a special calculation required to convert between future and spot prices?

Thanks Vegas, you're a good man!

Dial
Dial,
This is one of the main reasons I trade futures and not spot. The difference you speak of is the interest rollover between today and the expiration of the March contract on March 13, 2006.

If today the difference is 20 pips, 2 days from now it will be 19, and 2 days from then 18, all the way to the expiration date when they will be exactly the same. This difference is always priced into the futures contract.

This allows for exchange trades because, now you don't have to worry about the rollover and the credit or debit of interest. In addition, this is the TRUE interest rollover, not 5% added or subtracted by the house so they can stick it to your spot position.

Since there is only the price you buy and sell [at $12.50 per pip], it makes for seamless trading
vegas
  • #82
  • Feb 7, 2006 11:35am Feb 7, 2006 11:35am
Thanx Vegas,

For all your generous sharing. I will figure some way to pay this forward!

Not to slight concept one and two.....but concept three Rocks !!!

It's Everywhere!.....Its Everywhere!

HeavyJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #83
  • Feb 7, 2006 11:49am Feb 7, 2006 11:49am
Quoting HeavyJ
Thanx Vegas,

For all your generous sharing. I will figure some way to pay this forward!

Not to slight concept one and two.....but concept three Rocks !!!

It's Everywhere!.....Its Everywhere!

HeavyJ
HeavyJ,

As I have said on prior posts, it is one of the most important trading concepts you have to master. No matter the method, ignoring it will cost every type of trader dearly.

Glad you are seeing it.
vegas
  • #84
  • Edited 12:55pm Feb 7, 2006 12:20pm | Edited 12:55pm
Went long with cable at 1.7455 SL 1.7402. Anyone entered cable please comment..
Attached Image
  • #85
  • Feb 7, 2006 2:25pm Feb 7, 2006 2:25pm
Quoting vishalshan
Went long with cable at 1.7455 SL 1.7402. Anyone entered cable please comment..
Well that looks like a correct entry from my ignorant perspective, but I wonder why Vegas hasn't put the trade signal on C2 yet? I'm sure there is a good reason.
  • #86
  • Feb 7, 2006 2:34pm Feb 7, 2006 2:34pm
Quoting vishalshan
Went long with cable at 1.7455 SL 1.7402. Anyone entered cable please comment..
Hi Shan,
I haven't read VWBII yet, so don't know about the concepts. Regarding your long trade, I would prefer to see some price action confirmation of a long trade first. I am actually short. Will enter long at a lower price. We might see a test of yesterday's low again.

Good Luck
Habeeb
Keeping it Simple
  • #87
  • Feb 7, 2006 3:09pm Feb 7, 2006 3:09pm
Quoting cici
Well that looks like a correct entry from my ignorant perspective, but I wonder why Vegas hasn't put the trade signal on C2 yet? I'm sure there is a good reason.
I believe Vegas is still Short Cable and pulling stops down closer Just in case it is a 50% day
  • #88
  • Feb 7, 2006 3:19pm Feb 7, 2006 3:19pm
Quoting cici
Well that looks like a correct entry from my ignorant perspective, but I wonder why Vegas hasn't put the trade signal on C2 yet? I'm sure there is a good reason.
cici,
I'm still short 7 contracts. Market came very close to stopping me out at 1.7468 [see prior posts].

If I had been stopped out, it doesn't mean it's time to get long. I am not one of those traders who is always in the market with a position.

1.7459 bid would have been the exact 50% retracement of todays range [1.7515 high - 1.7403 low]. Two points I want to make here. 1) Although the chart [from the post above] looks impressive, the actual pip range of the hour bar is about 25 - 30 pips on the move up off the low. 2) After that, no real follow through of any kind; market just kind of chopping around.

Although the market did technically break the 50% number, it only did so by a pip or two. That's one of the reasons I put my stop a few pips away In this case, I just got lucky I didn't get taken out.

The daily doesn't really show a good formation for a reversal, and with the 2 points I made above, that's why I haven't gotten long [yet].

Now tonight, if the market closes near where it's at now [1.7438], opens and starts to go higher from here [1.7435 - 40 area], I know from past history that 30 and 47 pips from the open is key. So my buy stop will be repositioned after the close to 1.7488.

So, it really boils down to the lack of speed off the low and the markets ability to do nothing when it violated 1.7459.

This is why I am not long yet.

Hope this gives some clarity.
vegas
  • #89
  • Feb 7, 2006 3:22pm Feb 7, 2006 3:22pm
Vegas

Thanks for your great system and insights.

Can you point me to the free website and other good information which you supplied, but which I can't seem to find now?

Thanks, again.

Trinity
  • #90
  • Feb 7, 2006 3:46pm Feb 7, 2006 3:46pm
Quoting WTB
I also shorted the EURJPY (demo money trade though) following VWB system.

I saw a double top, then two inside bars in a row (signifying congestion), and then a final powerful thrust to the downside breaking the up trendline.

I shorted as that breakout bar closed and I closed (for 100 pips) as price touched the tunnel.

Picture below.
Can someone explain about whats double top and two inside bars in a row pls.
  • #91
  • Feb 7, 2006 3:58pm Feb 7, 2006 3:58pm
Quoting jotty
Can someone explain about whats double top and two inside bars in a row pls.
Hi Jotty,
I would rather teach you to fish than give you one.

Checkout the website www.investopedia.com and search for the definitions.
  • #92
  • Feb 7, 2006 4:33pm Feb 7, 2006 4:33pm
Vegas, need a touch up here. GBPUSD touched the 3rd fib line today. Seems to me it will be closing with a morning doji on the daily... Approximatly 6 hours ago... only thing stopping me from not buying this right now is that it didn't pass the 50% rule, which is priced at 1.7458....

***EDIT***

And it seems like its passing it now, if it closes above the 50% mark on the hour it would signal a buy, right?
  • #93
  • Feb 7, 2006 4:34pm Feb 7, 2006 4:34pm
Thanks for point me there Bemac : I understand that a double top is like a M. But i dont see that on the chart posted. Thats why i asked.
And I cant seems to find inside bars on the website you directed me to.
  • #94
  • Feb 7, 2006 4:42pm Feb 7, 2006 4:42pm
Quoting jotty
Can someone explain about whats double top and two inside bars in a row pls.
The double top is shown by two daily bars topping out at the same level. If you zoomed into lower time frames (say for example the 30 mins chart), you'd see the typical "M" pattern.

Inside bars in the daily chart mean bars which total range from low to high is within the previous day's low-to-high span. It usually signifies that market is contracting or ranging sidewards. If you see two days in row like that, sometimes when it finally breaks out, it does in a furious move like in the chart posted above.
  • #95
  • Feb 7, 2006 4:54pm Feb 7, 2006 4:54pm
Quoting xspowerx
Vegas, need a touch up here. GBPUSD touched the 3rd fib line today. Seems to me it will be closing with a morning doji on the daily... Approximatly 6 hours ago... only thing stopping me from not buying this right now is that it didn't pass the 50% rule, which is priced at 1.7458....

***EDIT***

And it seems like its passing it now, if it closes above the 50% mark on the hour it would signal a buy, right?
xspowerx,
I don't care about doji's, only one day reversal patterns. Also, just because it hit 3rd fib line doesn't mean get out, it means watch carefully for a move the other way. Now, that doesn't mean "the other way" automatically becomes a reversal, but it does mean to exit shorts [if it goes up] the next day if the market starts to move higher and takes out 30 and then 47 pips from the open [remember table 1 from VWB Part II?].

The 50% retracement rule from today does not carryover to tomorrow, which we are almost in.
vegas
  • #96
  • Feb 7, 2006 5:02pm Feb 7, 2006 5:02pm
Quoting WTB
The double top is shown by two daily bars topping out at the same level. If you zoomed into lower time frames (say for example the 30 mins chart), you'd see the typical "M" pattern.

Inside bars in the daily chart mean bars which total range from low to high is within the previous day's low-to-high span. It usually signifies that market is contracting or ranging sidewards. If you see two days in row like that, sometimes when it finally breaks out, it does in a furious move like in the chart posted above.
Thanks alot
  • #97
  • Feb 7, 2006 5:26pm Feb 7, 2006 5:26pm
Quoting vegas
xspowerx,
I don't care about doji's, only one day reversal patterns. Also, just because it hit 3rd fib line doesn't mean get out, it means watch carefully for a move the other way. Now, that doesn't mean "the other way" automatically becomes a reversal, but it does mean to exit shorts [if it goes up] the next day if the market starts to move higher and takes out 30 and then 47 pips from the open [remember table 1 from VWB Part II?].

The 50% retracement rule from today does not carryover to tomorrow, which we are almost in.
Ahh ok your refering to your position that your holding. I was refering more to the point of looking to enter a new position going long. The reason I mentioned Doji was because in VWB part I you mentioned look for common candlestick patterns such as Doji's etc. So what confirmations do you look for in order to conclude that a reversal may be taking place? If the uptrend continues the next day as well and breaks the 30 and 47 points?

By the way I constructed the same chart you use and the process of constructing it taught me alot about how you calculate your figures. I can see how you can easily write a book on this... very interesting.
  • #98
  • Feb 7, 2006 5:51pm Feb 7, 2006 5:51pm
Quoting vegas
xspowerx,
I don't care about doji's, only one day reversal patterns. Also, just because it hit 3rd fib line doesn't mean get out, it means watch carefully for a move the other way. Now, that doesn't mean "the other way" automatically becomes a reversal, but it does mean to exit shorts [if it goes up] the next day if the market starts to move higher and takes out 30 and then 47 pips from the open [remember table 1 from VWB Part II?].

The 50% retracement rule from today does not carryover to tomorrow, which we are almost in.
Hi Vegas,

Your "next day" starts at 3PM ? Chicago time? Forgive a bonehead but that would be 21:00 GMT?

The reason I ask is I'd like to set up my spreadsheet (spot) to align more with your futures movements.

Thanx again<
HeavyJ
HeavyJ -"Posterboy for Spellchecker!" "Will work for pips!"
  • #99
  • Feb 7, 2006 6:38pm Feb 7, 2006 6:38pm
Quoting vegas
Dial,
This is one of the main reasons I trade futures and not spot. The difference you speak of is the interest rollover between today and the expiration of the March contract on March 13, 2006.

If today the difference is 20 pips, 2 days from now it will be 19, and 2 days from then 18, all the way to the expiration date when they will be exactly the same. This difference is always priced into the futures contract.

This allows for exchange trades because, now you don't have to worry about the rollover and the credit or debit of interest. In addition, this is the TRUE interest rollover, not 5% added or subtracted by the house so they can stick it to your spot position.

Since there is only the price you buy and sell [at $12.50 per pip], it makes for seamless trading
Thank you Vegas. I suspected it had something to do with rollover interest.

I want to borrow the words of my friend Quinn, another FF member, and say that the PAP on C2 has made me "happier than a pig'n shit!". Although I've only seen the signals today, as soon as I got them I jumped on the charts to divine your rationale. In time, as I absorb more of your insight, I expect to start anticipating your signals. Thanks for allowing me a glimpse inside your head!

I am finding that I am getting pleasure from two directions on the forum. First, from helping newbies cover ground I've long been over, and second, hearing from others, like yourself, who are sharing their experiences with the road ahead. Thanks for that Vegas.

Dial
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  • #100
  • Feb 7, 2006 6:47pm Feb 7, 2006 6:47pm
Do we need to subscribe just to see the signals?
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