Elliott Wave Trading

Possibility 2

Good day traders

from the point of view of the elliot waves usd yen may fall to 75 is a strong chance because it has not paid a monthly contractionary triangle as a requirement to pay 75% of the longest wave of the triangle would be the contractionary wave as shown in the chart.

another possibility is that a possible failure of wave 5 which in theory would make to back off from all the bearish wave 4

I could not make a post for a beginner

Hey all, heres a GBPJpy 1 hr.Hoping it will make a C wave up, then make the 3rd wave down.

Here's a AudUsd 1 hr.

Here's a Gbp|jpy 1 hr, i'm short on this one.

Hello to everyone,

Can anyone check my wave count on AUD/CAD and see if I'm doing this right? Other interpretations would be welcome.

Many thanks

EUR 240

GBP

Major trend is still downward. Is looking for a strong resistance to short.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_MYKMaYee1K...e%2B14-nov.gif

Mine might be hard to read but here's my weekly aud cad. A long term target would be at least 61.8% of the move up. .9069 (roughly 1Kpips)

Here's my GU-- I originally had a very bearish one but I have reconsidered... I'll wait for the green zone before deciding..

GY has broken out of it's daily trend channel in the start of 5 waves I believe it has a bit more up to complete "wave 5 blow off" then a retrace for wave 2 down- good place to look for a nice long.

Major trend is still uptrend. Is waiting for the price to dip at strong support @1.6000, for long.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_MYKMaYee1K...e%2B14-nov.gif

good day trader when a standard channels as well as in this case it is likely that the case of a double combination or triple combination rather than an impulse. According to Glenn Neely in the rules reverse a decline or be delayed as more time to consider it as an impulse impulsive waves

Hi fellow traders, just a quick question, sorry if it was asked before : Do you use special tools to label the wave counts in MT4. When I label it with normal text it move over the candles if i change time frame. Is there a solution for this, thanks in advance

gj?
anyone interest in GJ?

Exactly what i'm thinking too.

im thinking a patttern H&S emerge ? theres a lot comfirmation to wait but correlation just tell the direction. Im just ignore upward move? for now market are moving miss that boat! what a pity....

I've noticed a few references to Harmonic Elliott Wave and just wanted to say that I've begun a website which is not yet finished but does provide an introduction to the adaptations I've made to Elliott's impulsive structure which I consider a misjudgment. This is not a criticism but what I feel was a result of the limited tools Elliott possessed in his research. He would have had to calculate all wave relationships long had while I have the luxury of a spreadsheet that provides a range of potential wave projections/retracements by just entering a few rates.

There is an article in the left hand column of my home page on http://harmonic-ewave.com that provides a brief explanation of the changes.

As way of example, here is what I feel has occurred in EURUSD:

HOURLY DECLINE FROM 1.4281:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...riplethree.jpg

I didn't get the low - although I pointed it out as a possibility but preferred a deeper move as I saw USDCHF needing a higher high. I still see that USDCHF needs another push higher and maybe Cable lower... In the end all look possible.

My preference is for the downside here to be complete.

There are two counts as there are decent ratios even for an impulsive Wave (a) lower. However, the Wave (ii) and Wave (iv) are both brief and shallow. I tend not to see this in a Harmonic Elliott Wave structure unless the Wave (b) of Wave (iii) is very deep. In this case it was a "normal" 50%. Therefore I feel the triple three count has more legs. It also met the 50% retracement of the 1.2586-1.4281 rally which is a "normal" Wave (B) of Wave (III)... Note also the first rally from 1.3447 has risen into the span of the third Wave (b).

RALLY FROM 1.3447:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...rallychart.jpg

These ratios were just about perfect. Note the bearish divergence at the end that tends to confirm the reversal lower - which ideally should only be a correction in my book. Also notice the first pullback has dipped into the span of the Wave (b) of Wave (v)...

Table for the rally from my spreadsheet:

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...Wavearally.jpg

Note all ratios are the normal type I see and in this case the alternation between Wave (ii) (81%) and Wave (iv) (38.2%) are also in support.

I'm looking for a Wave (b) pullback and then Wave (c) rally probably by the end of next week (??) which will form Wave (i) of Wave (C) of Wave (III).

Clear break below 1.3447 and the 58.6% retracement in Wave (B) at 1.3288 will break the uptrend completely...

Please feel free to browse on my website for more information.

Ian Copsey

nice! u work hard for this....congrat!

I am no EW expert but you appear to be onto something here. I've taken a look at your website and like what I see. Can you provide your daily chart to backup your references to the wave count on the lower timeframes?

I look forward to seeing more of your work.

Thanks

Many thanks for your encouragement. All I can say is that it works well for me and has raised my accuracy by a significant degree. It still isn't the holy grail - and nothing will ever be since everyone would use the holy grail and then it would fail.... It still produces many challenges and still has me baffled on occasions, perhaps when there are so many peaks & troughs and complexities in the structure that it leaves multiple options.

For example, I knew 1.3434 was the 50% retracement of the rally from 1.2586 but I also see that the correction in USDCHF should not yet be complete - so I favored a deeper projection lower in the third Wave (c)... However, even then the break levels are much clearer - and this was at 1.3600... You will often get multiple common wave projections in Wave (c) and Wave (iii) ( or Wave (v) ) and then you have to attempt to identify which will work through the Wave v projections of Wave (c)...

It is also a very intensive method of analysis as you need to go through multiple measurements to confirm wave relationships to strengthen the count. However, at the end of the day I find it takes away a degree of subjectivity in terms of being more confident of your count and takes out the vast array of counts that traditional EW allows - which only serve to confuse and frankly no one could forecast them in advance. That's the key for me - it allows more accurate forecasting...

Weekly and daily charts follow. Just to say I can see weaknesses in my count but I am basing my Dollar bearish view on the cycles I use which indicate a multi-decade cycle low in around 2 years +/- 6 months.

WEEKLY

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...eklyEURUSD.jpg

Just to point out the weakness - the Wave (IV) at 1.1879 is rather too close to the Wave (B) of Wave (III) at 1.1640. I don't normally see this degree of pullback which was around 61.8% and not as close to the Wave (B)... Also, we have seen only a double zigzag lower from 1.6036. It could be enough but technically the possibility of a triple three cannot be ignored. However, as I mentioned, I prefer the Dollar bearish cycles at this point.

A point here to highlight that the decline from 1.5143 to 1.1879 was corrective - apart from the 94.4% projection in Wave (c) - is that the entire decline only saw pullbacks of more than 50% in the Waves (a) and (c). The absence of any alternation in an impulsive count works against that interpretation.

DAILY

http://i672.photobucket.com/albums/v...r/EURdaily.jpg

In the Wave (a) rally the Wave -iii- was 261.8% of Wave -i- and Wave -c- was a 94.4% projection. Wave -iv- was just short of 14.6% (with Wave -ii- at just under 85.4% that should be expected through alternation) and Wave -v- almost 94.4%...

With the Wave (b) at 50% of Wave (a) of Wave (iii) the harmonic structure appears perfect. A 176.4% projection in Wave (iii) is at 1.5150 and the wave equality target in Wave (c) is at 1.5141... Being the last major swing high that seems reasonable.

So for now I am bullish - very bullish - but the make or break will come on a rally above 1.4281 or a drop below 1.3288 which is the 58.6% retracement in Wave (b).

We should therefore be looking of a Wave (b) decline in the hourly chart followed by a Wave (c) to complete Wave -i- of Wave (c). Just watch out as even if the decline to 1.3447 was a Wave (a) then it will need at least a 3 wave retracement to form Wave (b)... What happens after that is crucial...

Ian