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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #20,301
  • Nov 12, 2010 5:36am Nov 12, 2010 5:36am
There is talk about strong option expiry, with strike level 3750 ....
  • #20,302
  • Edited 5:59am Nov 12, 2010 5:45am | Edited 5:59am
Quoting MaMood
There is talk about strong option expiry, with strike level 3750 ....
3760 then 3810

E /U leader ... ready to E / G (damn sorry E/Y)
  • #20,303
  • Nov 12, 2010 5:50am Nov 12, 2010 5:50am
Quoting Gro
3760 then 3810
Have no idea.
For now I'm tending to a long scout for EU.
But have not deployed him yet ...
  • #20,304
  • Nov 12, 2010 5:57am Nov 12, 2010 5:57am
Quoting Gro
3760 then 3810

Still not sure abouzt anything, but take a look at Oil.
Running up atm ...

3750 strike level is taken out ...
15:01 - gold and DOW are following now ..
  • #20,305
  • Nov 12, 2010 6:04am Nov 12, 2010 6:04am
Quoting MaMood
Still not sure abouzt anything, but take a look at Oil.
Running up atm ...

3750 strike level is taken out ...
15:01 - gold and DOW are following now ..
I write what I trade do ... and I wrote with errors.I can't do two things at once.

square all
  • #20,306
  • Nov 12, 2010 6:12am Nov 12, 2010 6:12am
Quoting Gro
I write what I trade do ... and I wrote with errors.I can't do two things at once.

square all
Don't worry.
Keep your mindset and do not get distracted too much by this thread.

I would wait till the Equities are stepping in in 19 minutes.
Maybe they will give us some direction ...
Also in 45 minutes US figs with UoM Sentiment ..

No major moves always mean to me that there is no dramatic change to my scenario. I always wait till something strange is happening, that forces me to realign/reaarange my troops ...
  • #20,307
  • Nov 12, 2010 6:33am Nov 12, 2010 6:33am
15:33 - Wall street has opened. EU H1 may indicate a reversal. But ther is still some time to go. Waiting ...
15:35 - We have to take that resistance out first ....

.
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  • #20,308
  • Edited 7:25am Nov 12, 2010 6:40am | Edited 7:25am
15:38 - My gut feeling say, we are going to see a top here. But no decision making on gut feeling. Patience is trump ...
15:45 - possible break upside ahead (DOW,OIL Cable)
15:50 - moves presented now maybe triggered by a nervous market due to US figd in 5 minutes. I do not take too much care of them as lead for decision making. Have still no scout in. But will do my decision soon after news figs ...
15:58 - Sentiment > forecast and Inflation expectations too (pointing to stronger USD)
Closely watching PA. Bias is short now. Will not do any predictions but wait till the lady shows a USD bull dance too.
16:03 - S x 1 x EU X 1.3755 (Scout)
16:09 - cause the move is not too strong for now, I have an eye on DOW,Gold and Oil to be alerted of a possible turn up again ...
16:11 - prepared to attack, when break of 40 with momentum
16:15 - no, that is not considered as good momentum, but as a hard fight for this level
16:16 - wow what is that????
16:17 - any POMO influences (I have to state, that I know to less about that ...)
16:18 - s x 1 x eu x 3754
16:20 - b x 1 x eu x 3725
16:21 - Whatever that was - PA was pretty clear to me. So I send in a small attack ..
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  • #20,309
  • Edited 7:49am Nov 12, 2010 7:26am | Edited 7:49am
16:26 - Oh I missed that one ...
16:27 - only scout is in. Let'S see if there is any defense of 1.3700 level now. I any case ready for attack ...
16:30 - is this the chance for stacking some more troops? Bounce back of 1.37 ...
16:31 - at least DOW, Gold and Oil are supporting the down move very well for now
16:32 - finger on Attack trigger
16:36 - S x 1 x eu x 3720
16:44 - attack in trouble. waiting.
16:46 - Pa between 3720 and 30 shows a strong battle on Tickchart. But see a good chance to go down again...
16:46 - s x 1 x eu x 3719
  • #20,310
  • Nov 12, 2010 7:34am Nov 12, 2010 7:34am
Quoting MaMood
15:38 - My gut feeling say, we are going to see a top here. But no decision making on gut feeling. Patience is trump ...
15:45 - possible break upside ahead (DOW,OIL Cable)
15:50 - moves presented now maybe triggered by a nervous market due to US figd in 5 minutes. I do not take too much care of them as lead for decision making. Have still no scout in. But will do my decision soon after news figs ...
15:58 - Sentiment > forecast and Inflation expectations too (pointing to stronger USD)
Closely watching PA. Bias is short now. Will not do any...
nicely done. managed to catch some on the same wave.
  • #20,311
  • Edited 8:02am Nov 12, 2010 7:51am | Edited 8:02am
16:50 - trouble with FF? http error 400???
anyway. Waiting of retest of 1.37 now. But ready to close last attack if needed
16:53 - b x 2 x eu 3705 to less momentum.
only scout in now
16:57 - scout out at 3699 I'm out of power. Have reached my public dancing limit now :-)

So, not much Euros again. But i have not taken any risks.
Result: ~83 Euro
Have traded based on 0.1 lots

Enjoying some cake and coffee now :-)
  • #20,312
  • Nov 12, 2010 8:03am Nov 12, 2010 8:03am
Quoting piccolo
nicely done. managed to catch some on the same wave.

Thanx for your kind words.
Sometimes things are so easy ....
  • #20,313
  • Nov 12, 2010 8:21am Nov 12, 2010 8:21am
Quoting MaMood
Don't worry.
Keep your mindset and do not get distracted too much by this thread.

I would wait till the Equities are stepping in in 19 minutes.
Maybe they will give us some direction ...
Also in 45 minutes US figs with UoM Sentiment ..

No major moves always mean to me that there is no dramatic change to my scenario. I always wait till something strange is happening, that forces me to realign/reaarange my troops ...
I'm fine, but the description can not in real time.I will try to devise an acceptable posting for me.

PS "G" is hard player
  • #20,314
  • Nov 12, 2010 9:38am Nov 12, 2010 9:38am
1ndGo to maps.google.com.
2nd Take "Search route".
3rd write a Japan starting position.
4th write China as the destination.
5th Go to your step no.43 your way ... you across the Pacific Ocean use the water ski
  • #20,315
  • Nov 12, 2010 12:22pm Nov 12, 2010 12:22pm
Hi friends,

my rereading of the thread has taken me to the pages around 300. It was the first of august 2008, a Friday with NFP figs. Fti has given some insights in a live trading session.

I'll give you a snippet of an explanation he has given to ianf0ster about his blotter. I have read it several times now, but I have to confess, that there is still much to learn for me. All the thinking fti has done, especially after NFP figs had been released. Hats off!!!!

You can find the original posting here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4691

Fti:

The reason for not attacking above the 50 mark , was because 50 was round about where my cost of exposure was. On the same virtue, when the market was trading to above that it meant that I was in aloss situation , Therefore at prices above 50 I was supposed to be in a rescue mode. But in effects I had gone into 4 mild attack test and a rescue at 50 . So that was threshhold point Although I could had mounted a rescue mission near 80 which was the expected test zone. I couldnt due to the speed whyby the momentum was lost at that zone. Moreover if you had been followed closely, I had a test scout before the figs, and ihe was taken out at near 80 due to that I needed to be squared for the NFP, which is an important fig release, couple with 2 other figs, released simu;tenously. After the figures release, the market gape down and pushed southwards although ther was strong push it lost its momentum too quickly. As she tested higher there was 4 mild checks by myelf andI deployed rescue at 50, that rescue failed to contain the upsurge which proved strong. As it rallied, the next likely resisitence was the previou point where the initial scout was killed,before the figures. This point was around 80. Remember that The extreme ceiling that had been determined by the scout was 80 and thenearest prime point (the 50, 00 points ) was 15600. If the market had the momentum to take out the 15600 which also neglates the gap price after the figs ,which was about 58 . then the uptrust would be too strong for the market to contain. If you would refer to the previous days actions, that was the case . Howevr I noticed that as we tested for downside strength , it lost momentum swiftly. This could be due to if themarket was not confident to breach all percieved support levels by most tech Analyst, who would be looking for the last nearest bottom at 20
Whats most important was my failed mild attacks and one rescue at 50, never came in the money even on a couple of trys,. This signaled that market was not prepared to breach the 50 now, it could be that more buildup of stop was not detacted by mmakers, who would mostly probably seek for the breach downwards, later nearer the lunch hours as USD bears became less confident of holding the market after a gaping figure release.

As a prudent move to protect book, I then felt that it wouldbe more productive for a forcefull skew attack after the breach of the 50 level, and that I would alloew the market more time to gather the momentum and volume to test the end of the 2st wave. From hindsight the breach was not to be . But if it had breached by after ny lunch , I would have had a forceful skew attck for the breaching of the 20 support that the whole world was watching for. Generally if USD bears had stops it would normally be about a 10 pip zone under the 20 support, which they worshiped. And that would give my strong attack lots of room to ride.

These decision was made from the sequence of the "dance" and not from any predetermined S/R levels as from charts , but actually danced into these zones to gather the feel of the momentum sentiment.

.

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  • #20,316
  • Edited 3:05pm Nov 12, 2010 1:54pm | Edited 3:05pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi friends,

my rereading of the thread has taken me to the pages around 300. It was the first of august 2008, a Friday with NFP figs. Fti has given some insights in a live trading session.

I'll give you a snippet of an explanation he has given to ianf0ster about his blotter. I have read it several times now, but I have to confess, that there is still much to learn for me. All the thinking fti has done, especially after NFP figs had been released. Hats off!!!!

You can find the original posting here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4691...
Medal for you!
sequel is also good, "time frame etc.

PS It's just the eternal question ... S/R, pattern, doji candle etc. but in 5min.,15min. 1hour or daily chart?
  • #20,317
  • Nov 13, 2010 1:57pm Nov 13, 2010 1:57pm
Quoting MaMood
Hi friends,

my rereading of the thread has taken me to the pages around 300. It was the first of august 2008, a Friday with NFP figs. Fti has given some insights in a live trading session.

I'll give you a snippet of an explanation he has given to ianf0ster about his blotter. I have read it several times now, but I have to confess, that there is still much to learn for me. All the thinking fti has done, especially after NFP figs had been released. Hats off!!!!

You can find the original posting here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=4691...
Thank you for posting this reading it again uncovers gems I missed in previous readings and gives a little better insight in what fti means by "strategising" .

Regards,
Baifu
  • #20,318
  • Nov 14, 2010 4:26am Nov 14, 2010 4:26am
Quoting mijamoto
Hello guys. I have very difficult decession now. I can go to korea, to train there for one semster taekwondo in very strong university team, but I have to pay flight ticket 700 euros+ what I'm gonna spend. I will have free acomodation and food. Shld I go for it as I am from very poor family, and next thing is it worth to spend so much money, if I am 20 yr old and I dnt have any good competitive results just 3rd place last week in austria. Why I would like to go there, as I would have perfect conditions to train. all the best
mijamoto,

just go ahead. Get all resources together.
Anyway you're only paying eur700 right? Maybe u need some extra cash to spend for 1 semester.
The whole idea is that you are sponsored for accommodation, food and see entire different world.

Whether you're competitive or not, the last thing you need to worry.
Experience is immeasurable wealth. If you miss it, you never get it back.
But the problem is that why they don't pay your ticket?

Money is subjective.
At this point of time it's a lot of money to you.
But in years to come, that amount could be just tips for waitress.
  • #20,319
  • Nov 14, 2010 6:53pm Nov 14, 2010 6:53pm
getting the pulse for e/u
with scout in heading south, note taken 3747 and watching how she reacts to 3724
  • #20,320
  • Nov 15, 2010 12:16am Nov 15, 2010 12:16am
Good morning friends!

Just for info:
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