Market Energy

OK, so finally I did it... my own journal.

I must say that in Forex Factory I've met some very nice people, who helped me in my early days and some served as an inspiration. Big Thanks! To trade for real is not easy. for me it is quite like a personal discovery. Say in 2005 I would never think that I could trade consistently with profits.

This journal will probably get an update only once a week or less, weekends mostly.
I decided to start it just for myself, get self-disciplined (tried blog before, ended up not updating it for a year), and later analize and re-analyze my own trades, setups, market sentiments, mistakes.

I trade using Daily Charts. I never analyze market from lower tf, but will go into intraday tf if the daily setup looks good and if i have time. I refuse to sit in front of the screen watching some low time frame charts. I would say that is my personal preference, but also I think that most professionals trade from dailies and maybe 240min. Others use tick-bar charts, which are not available to us using MT4.


I use my own strategy, which I call "Market Energy", My charts won't be clean and I don't even strive to do so called "naked trading". Whatever tools worked for me for past couple of years I will use them on charts.

UPDATE 2011-APRIL-16

I'm really not that disciplined as I thoght and didn't update this thread for couple of months now. I was busy with some additional research and just too tired.

EXPLANATION OF TERMS & CHART TOOLS (INDICATORS)

SWING CHARTS (I use Alpari MT4 GMT+2):

1. Swings:
18-day swings, 5-day swings, 60-day swings (on weekly: 13-week swings, on monthly: 12-month swings) - theory based on Trend Dynamics developed by Joseph Hart.
2. Channels
3. Andrews Median Lines (Pitchfork)
4. Gann dates (Square of Nine)
5. DGL (Dynamic Gann Levels developed by Donn Fisher).
6. Moving averages: 25, 50, 175 (all EMAs)

Various things, such as S/R levels (based on Pitchfork/Channels and/or DGL) must converge with EMAs.

MOVING AVERAGE CHARTS (I use Oanda MT4 with Sunday bars)

1. SMA 200, 120, 50, 25.
2. Weekly EMA 52 high and low
3. Monthly EMA 60 with various levels
4. Stochastic 8,3,3
5. Additionally Andrews Median Lines and right now Swing 10-day - not sure if I will keep it.

This is my main entry chart, I usually wait for some kind of bar/s formation.

I use mostly candlesticks charts, although I prefer bars, but in MT4 the bar lines are too thin for me to recognize with ease.

Thanks for following (if anyone does).
Arrogant people and rude people pls, do not post here.
If you disagreeing with the setup, please keep it to yourself and don't post as reply here, because that can distract me from my own trading scenario. No arguments here. Peace!


If this journal helps you I will be very happy.

That's the first chart on my platform.
I like this pair. It made me lot's of pips, excluding this year in which I've traded quite stupidly.
Anyway... the USD looks down for me. It seems that US wants it's currency cheap (?). Who knows, maybe the US will start to depend on exports? Anyway, I'm not fundamental guy, and although I like Mr.Soros "Alchemy of Finance" I'm not going into it.

That USD weakness is further confirmed by strong signals on EURUSD - an excellent setup to go long now, then we watch for triangle breakout; NZDUSD - very nice price action after that pin bar; Gold - oh... where will it go??? Will predictions of 2000 level come true? It all seems like it.
Gold was a good buy last Thursday.

Yes, GBP shows the end of long-term downtrend that lasted couple of years. The last swing structure shows higher top, higher bottom, plus price reacted well on Mean Reversion Levels (ok, that's my name for some EMAs).
GBP is slow but steady.
Here we can see good reaction from 50 EMA (yellow), and channels made by EMA 275 high-low. I used to use 200 EMA/SMA, but seriously it never made much sense to me. That channel is close enough.
Whys use some EMAs? Institutions see it and use it as well.

OK, last AUDJPY - the only pair amongst Yen crosses that I trade (GJ, EJ, AJ, UJ) which would deserve attention.
Very good setup after washout, and lovely lower channel rejection. I mean how much better could it get? We even have Pin Bar.

So what entries did I take?

Since NZD and Gold are new instruments of trade for me (I watched them for years, but never traded them) I enetered on demo. Presently 114 pips on NZD, and 1835 on Gold.

Real account trades:

I lost on USDCAD intraday as London opened tempting me to short on Friday, then it went down but took my SL on it's way up.
I re-entered using Daily charts - still not in.
My old trade (the first red arrow) is still in 1/3 of it, the other 2/3 were taken out.

Entry on EURUSD long, and AUDJPY.
I still have shorts on AJ, will possibly close them on Monday, depending on price action.
I have a very old long on Euro 1.2900 level, which 1/3 is still on.

GBP - I had to choose because almost all pairs are against the USD, so there was no point entering so much USD shorts.

The pairs I trade now are:
USDCAD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, EURJPY, (sporadically Gold and Silver), some stocks.
I take the best entries I see on these markets. For example: if GJ doesn't look good but AJ does I will take AJ setup, if both look good I would prefer GJ trade.

That's it for this week. Have a good one.

Nice post, charts and analysis George, thanks, I have subscribed.

Good luck.

Welcome!

OK, so we have next weekend, time for updates.

It's been a good week. Very good. Some great market action took place during this week. And you know what? I never even looked at economic calendar until the huge action last Thursday (Wednesday in the US).

Anyway, the first chart is Euro. Why? It's a little weird, worry-some price action last Fri. The market closed so strongly bearish, that it made me think. Maybe it's better to close my longs?

I took trade 1.3915 on 10/28, then as the trendline was broken I took another on 11/2 at 1.4068, and then on 11/3 I took an intraday position at 1.4017 which was closed for -3, +122, and 0 pips respectively (I divide each position into 3 and close them gradually or by moving my SL). Not bad, but I'm not happy it was closed, since the SL was small.
I'm still 1/3rd position long from 9/24 at 1.3341, so all in all I should be happy, but since I seldom see a chance to enter on intraday obviously... I wanted to get fatter with such an opportunity.
Anyway, the 1st target was met, so there will be no loss.
But the dilema is should I let it run or bring my SL tight under that ominous Fri candle? I think at least some I will close, then wait and look for another opportunity.

Great trades but it escapes my logic why would EUR behave like this on Fri,, since Dollar is still in fall, Gold in rise, etc.
The only thought I have: someone (big fish - bank/institution/government) needs to buy lower, very possibly at trendline retest.

I trade USD through USDCAD pair.
Yes, I know other pairs I trade go against USD, but for me I put it this way: I trade EUR or GBP through EURUSD and GBPUSD, I trade Yen through GJ, AJ, EJ, I now try Gold through XAUUSD as well as AUDUSD or NZDUSD, and I trade USD through USDCAD instrument.

So, it goes down well as planned and entries from last week work well, target 1 was met.

Ah yes. Yen is very possibly going through quiet distribution. Very slow and shy.

The best acting is AJ. My trades met their targets. On weekly chart we see possible resistance zone. If the trend behaves normally we should expect retracement from/in that zone, or at least 85.00 level.

GJ went through 1st trendline (minor) and bounced off the major one, fortunately hitting my initial TPO (Take Profit Objective).
If it goes down, I will short it.

EJ went through trendline, and due to that Euro price action, it also seems to be failing, but we never know. Will it stop at present small double top? Or will it go to at least 116.00 where the other expanding pattern waits?
Weekly we are in the gray zone - means anything can happen, and what I actually expect is a bull-bear battle.
I'm still bullish, since I really think that gradually Yen will be dumped.
But no trade on EJ for me - simply since I have AJ and GJ positions already.

But... Prof.Yen (Japanese economist) predicted 76.00 level on USDJPY.

Generally, Yen trades are unstable for now, and I will trade them with caution.

Yes, the real best trades were on markets that I only started to trade, and do it on demo only for now, as I concentrate mainly on EURUSD, USDCAD, and GJ or AJ.

Wonderful action on NZD! Again, we're entering a gray zone, so it's time to tighten SL on the 2nd 1/3 of position.

Gold was scary. It took off then went back to retest the trendline and breakout, but it formed cute Pin Bar (gosh, I really forgot what you call it in Candlesticks - a Hammer?), and I bought more above it.

And futures market - Light Sweet Crude Oil also seem to be heading straight up, very possibly to that top made in May.

Well... it says a lot about what's happening to USD.

But again... anything can happen!

Oh, I forgot: GBP behaved nicely, still space on weekly charts.

Good trading to all who read this. Keep good MM, stay out of noise, keep calm (yes, sure). And if you know how to get into all these huge moves WITHOUT watching all 3 sessions and WITH a SL of 10-20 pips - let me know!

Cheers!

End of another week - a surprising one.
All trends are in a pullback stage. Well, obviously this pullback could develop into trend change, as we will see.

This week I start from 2 charts: the best setups for the next week.
Then I will analyze my usual charts.

GBP looks very nice. We've retraced into breakout zone: 1.600 - 1.6100.
That is also 50% retracement.
Cycle low and DGL S2 setup. (DGLs - Dynamic Gann Levels - were developed by Don Fisher. One of the best tools I've ever had. I use them with some variation).

GJ looks nice, too. It didn't treat me nice, though...1/3rd of my long position was closed by this vicious pullback. I bough at trendline break, closed it, and then at DGL S1. Well, I actually see now that waiting a little longer (or entering a little earlier) would be better. Longer, because we are at break of major long-term trendline (to draw it I use weekly charts).
earlier, because at DGL support I could enter on the high of last red bar about 131.00.
MACD is showing growing momentum, and it is higher than during that BOJ Intervention. High probability that we may go up.

I'm happy because 1) I see my mistakes fast, 2) I risked very little on this trade. 3) I'm still in this trade.
Mon-Tue range will decide.

My charts are little different now, I use some other indicators, some are just for test and feeling.

EUR could possibly stop it's retracement here. We're still in a good uptrend.
I still don't like the way it went down, breaking the trendline, MACD divergence on the top, etc. but it stopped at DGL S2 as well as EMA 50, top of weekly mean.
Yes, it could develop into downtrend. Let's see what the week will bring.

USDCAD stopped at double bottom, formed a Congestion Box, and Fri close above it. MACD divergence. Possible move up. Also look at these trendlines which formed quite at intriguing pattern - all at the same angle! That's a very interesting channel which I have drawn for the first time like this.
Now, if this pair goes up, I will change mu EUR scenario as well as other pairs.
Could that end the Dollar bear?

Having a quick look at Oil chart - very close the that 90.00 crazy price! Now also down. Gold went down, too. On demo I did well trading Gold. After 3-6 months I will consider trading Gold, maybe better than some other pairs.

The other pair worth looking is AUDJPY.

One one hand I would say buy - it broke into Weekly Mean Zone, then through Yearly Mean, and... what a sudden shock. Still it bounced right off DGL S2.
On the other hand - MACD divergence and that drop right at Yearly Mean. Also, we're approaching long-term trendline.

Still, this looks like a fresh uptrend structure or just wild reaction in bear market.

No trade. Need to look what happens next week.

I've learnt Ichimoku charting method long ago. I still think highly of it. Actually, it is the only complete "system" that we could quite reliably use in forex.
Many banks use Ichimoku charts to analyze the currencies - now that came as a surprise to me. In Taiwan they even write their daily Ichimoku analysis on their websites. If so, I think it is a very good addition to trader's tools.

Here are 2 charts I found interesting this week.

EUR formed Doji right at Kumo support.
GJ went though resistance area of Kumo, and then had a bounce off Kumo support.

Both are in a "buy" mode.

Lately I've been thinking a lot. Many "what if's".
What if I could enter these huge trends on GJ or even EUR using some ridiculously small SL? It's actually groovy to think about the results, compounding, even trading as seldom as every month or two.
Because the RR ratio would be incredible.

And here is what I'm reading right now. Greg is incredible with his entries! I have no idea how he enters, but the precision is remarkable!
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...t=88949&page=1

The charts since the beginning of this journal show various setups, some which I've taken (EUR, CAD GJ, AJ). For that period my life account pips total is 906. Demo (Gold, NZD) I don't count, but it is positive amount, especially since NZD and Gold were trending so well.
My stops are quite big, often I use ATR to give me some idea, otherwise I put SL below/above the entry bar or few bars ago.

I don't see much interesting charts. The first 2 I've mentioned, especially GBP I think will offer the best setup. CAD looks promising, but that is quite a chaotic time. Even if it goes up, there should be some immediate retracement for the big boys to come aboard - and that is what we traders can use.

All of you who read this - have a great trading week!

I haven't updated mu journal last weekend. I've been very busy testing some intraday systems of mine, and my testing is done by hand with excel sheet by my side, min.100 trades for test, bar-by-bar on screen.
Overall, quite good and I think I will start intraday trading in next 1-2 weeks.
Right I can only pay attention to 1-2 markets, I chose USDCAD and GBPJPY. I think that's enough for now, but if I see some important setup on D1 on some other markets (EURUSD, AUDJPY, maybe Gold) then I will go into intraday.

OK, starting from Dollar crosses:

CAD - its's very interesting to see the breakout long from the bottom (at which I bough, but kept it short time), then reaction from Trendline, Ichimoku, Retest of the Breakout, and long bullish candle on Fri which parked itself right on the Trendline. We're still in a range, but I'm interested in bullish trend towards the top of Ichimoku cloud and the blue area of Res.

EUR - broke down right through the neckline, retested it, then went down through Mean reversion (70 months EMA) and now it's last bullish chance is on confluence of Mean Reversion bottom (52 weeks EMA low) and DGL support. If that is broken, we will probably see a retracement to the bullish breakout retest of 1.29

NZD - same story: we're going to the S/R area which may coincide with Ichimoku bottom.

Gold - reacted from DGL support coinciding with Ichimoku, it is a little up, but it could restest Ichimoku and the same DGL support again.

EJ - very interesting bullish candlestick right off the Ichimoku bottom and 1-click-Trendline. Then again, the false breakout above the major (blue) trendline... I think we're in a range.

GJ - also right on support. But something tells me we may go a little lower, look at the GBPUSD chart...
which goes right through Support 3 of DGL (S4 is far, far away) and Ichimoku, and now into major DGL support as well as Pivot Zone. Hence I would't trust GJ bulls.

A new chart for me - US30. Interesting indicator of stock market. I would prefer SP500 charts, but I can't find them anymore on MT4, unless short-terms futures charts. I used to have MT4 SP500 index charts with 20 years of data, but now they don't provide it anymore.

So where we are on this chart? definately we're going to the Pivot Zone retest. Right now market is sitting on it as well as on the top of Yearly Reversion high.
If it breaks through, we would either have short-term Wyckoff Spring, or real break down most probably to Yearly Mean Reversion.

Have a good week.