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  • #11,261
  • Nov 11, 2010 9:12pm Nov 11, 2010 9:12pm
Here is a chart that is suddenly interesting.....USD/JPY
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  • #11,262
  • Nov 11, 2010 9:14pm Nov 11, 2010 9:14pm
Waiting to see what tomorrow brings.....looking at weekly close.
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  • #11,263
  • Nov 11, 2010 9:23pm Nov 11, 2010 9:23pm
The Euro....


It's what's for dinner.....
  • #11,264
  • Nov 12, 2010 7:01am Nov 12, 2010 7:01am
Quoting Low
The Euro....


It's what's for dinner.....
Possibly........but the way things have been for the last year - that could change at the drop of a hat. Nobody seems to have conviction one way or the other......
  • #11,265
  • Nov 12, 2010 8:28am Nov 12, 2010 8:28am
Quoting clockwork71
Waiting to see what tomorrow brings.....looking at weekly close.
Love your work CW,

I saw this bearish butterfly reversal pattern forming off of your original rising wedge pattern analysis from earlier this week.

Target is 1.6425-1.6450 band as the reversal point.

I got my resting buys hit early here London time.
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  • #11,266
  • Nov 12, 2010 8:31am Nov 12, 2010 8:31am
Quoting clockwork71
Here is a chart that is suddenly interesting.....USD/JPY
We just completed a 4hr bearish butterfly reversal pattern @ 82.50-82.80 range so may be a chance to see it make a new low.

There is also a possibility that we see 84 however and that we are in the middle of a BC leg reversal before a CD that takes us down to 78.40 which is what I believe is the new bottom for USDJPY.

My wave counts are based on the following range points in the recent daily price action and the outcome will depend entirely on whether the 82.80 level holds the near term upside or whether we move up to the 84 handle area. Either way though, both wave counts leave us at 78.40 and that is where I place a buy order I expect to hold for 10 years
AB (83.47-81.45), BC (81.45-82.80), CD (82.80-78.40) - OR - AB (85.92-81.45), BC (81.45-84.10), CD (84.10-78.40)

I may be mad but, it's looking more and more likely to me.
  • #11,267
  • Nov 12, 2010 10:31am Nov 12, 2010 10:31am
Howdy Clock... trend line trading is something that is new to me but I am already seeing some huge benefits from it (took EUR/USD from 1.38 down to 1.36 hit this morning).

Still not completely positive of my accuracy level in drawing them, but this seems like a great thread to follow. I have a day job so you can probably understand why 4h/daily charts are a must (plus, I have never been able to scalp forex well) for me until I am able to sustain income consistently in the markets, however long that may take. Multi day trades are a requirement for me!

Oh, and go BUCKS!!
  • #11,268
  • Nov 12, 2010 12:02pm Nov 12, 2010 12:02pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Love your work CW,

I saw this bearish butterfly reversal pattern forming off of your original rising wedge pattern analysis from earlier this week.

Target is 1.6425-1.6450 band as the reversal point.

I got my resting buys hit early here London time.
I have to admit I don't know jack s**t about Gartley Patterns, but this is great that you would post it. Why? Simple.....confluence. We know that the more traders that see something in a chart worth buying, the better the odds of a pair moving......and that is what trading is all about.

An example is that even though I don't give hardly any weight to moving averages, when I trade stocks I always want to know where the 200 EMA is, since so many stock traders pay attention to it. A self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts.....
  • #11,269
  • Nov 12, 2010 12:06pm Nov 12, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting Venice
Howdy Clock... trend line trading is something that is new to me but I am already seeing some huge benefits from it (took EUR/USD from 1.38 down to 1.36 hit this morning).

Still not completely positive of my accuracy level in drawing them, but this seems like a great thread to follow. I have a day job so you can probably understand why 4h/daily charts are a must (plus, I have never been able to scalp forex well) for me until I am able to sustain income consistently in the markets, however long that may take. Multi day trades are a requirement...
Congrats on the trade.....

To be honest, I found over time that I didn't want to make time to trade shorter time frames. You never know, that might be what you decide as well. Keep flexible, and pay attention to what makes you profitable, and even more important: happy.

Buckeyes host Penn State this weekend, always a good game. I just saw you are from Columbus, so certainly you know that. Kulu and I are close to downtown.....he pops into the public forum from time to time as well........
  • #11,270
  • Nov 12, 2010 12:21pm Nov 12, 2010 12:21pm
Here's a cheat-sheet TLC put up last summer, and a gartley indi I use to speed up the identification process. I don't blindly trust the indi, and niether should anybody else.

http://i54.tinypic.com/1ilfgp.gif
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File Type: mq4 Gartley v101.mq4   103 KB | 410 downloads
  • #11,271
  • Nov 12, 2010 2:56pm Nov 12, 2010 2:56pm
Quoting clockwork71
Congrats on the trade.....

To be honest, I found over time that I didn't want to make time to trade shorter time frames. You never know, that might be what you decide as well. Keep flexible, and pay attention to what makes you profitable, and even more important: happy.

Buckeyes host Penn State this weekend, always a good game. I just saw you are from Columbus, so certainly you know that. Kulu and I are close to downtown.....he pops into the public forum from time to time as well........
When it comes to forex, it is just to jumpy for me to even want to think of trading the lower time frames... I'll leave scalping to my 1m ETF's in the equities market... price oscillates much better their

I envision myself scalping ETF's while letting the long swings of Forex play out.
  • #11,272
  • Nov 12, 2010 9:36pm Nov 12, 2010 9:36pm
Audio bit uploaded on blog.
  • #11,273
  • Nov 13, 2010 6:33am Nov 13, 2010 6:33am
Quoting o990l6mh
Hmm... Springfield...

I'll bet either Bart or Homer had something to do with that
Ah, didn't know it was such a common name.

Anyway, it's a small world. I found this news clip on the website of one of the small local papers in the area where I work: http://www.blt.se/mediaspelaren/spra...ce=mediacenter

Thanks to you, I knew what it was before loading the clip
  • #11,274
  • Nov 14, 2010 3:32pm Nov 14, 2010 3:32pm
This could be the week that sees the end of the recent Euro run......for the time being of course.

If this catches on, and I think it's going to - the Fed is going to be pissed.
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  • #11,275
  • Nov 14, 2010 7:59pm Nov 14, 2010 7:59pm
Quoting clockwork71
This could be the week that sees the end of the recent Euro run......for the time being of course.

If this catches on, and I think it's going to - the Fed is going to be pissed.

Hey CW, I am back on board with your thread (I have been reading but not participating). Thank you so much for your advice and for bringing together everyone involved in this thread, etc. My trading has become far more consistent due to your tips; although I still have a long ways to go.

Real quick economics question: if Ireland does not accept funds from the ECB, etc. doesn't it bode well for the Euro, at least in the short term??

Plus, wouldn't the FED be happy with this, as they are attempting to weaken the US Dollar to improve exports, etc.?

Fill me in brother, I am just a little confused. FYI: the "why?" of the markets still boggle my mind from time to time, the technicals not so much.

I appreciate your help. Thanks.
  • #11,276
  • Nov 14, 2010 9:35pm Nov 14, 2010 9:35pm
Quoting drebin
Hey CW, I am back on board with your thread (I have been reading but not participating). Thank you so much for your advice and for bringing together everyone involved in this thread, etc. My trading has become far more consistent due to your tips; although I still have a long ways to go.

Real quick economics question: if Ireland does not accept funds from the ECB, etc. doesn't it bode well for the Euro, at least in the short term??

Plus, wouldn't the FED be happy with this, as they are attempting to weaken the US Dollar to improve exports, etc.?...
Well, it really comes down to what happens next. But in short, I believe that Ireland refusing help is probably going to rattle the markets a bit. One of two things could happen: Either the markets believe Ireland, or they don't. If they don't - it will be obvious by the Irish bond spreads widening. I know you probably don't follow that particular market, (who does?) but if they do - there will be plenty of coverage on it in the traditional channels of news.

I believe that more than likely, there isn't a good answer for the Euro at the moment. If they take the bailout, it will help temporarily - but it will also undermine the "strength" and "belief" in the Euro. The next question will of course be, "What else is hiding under the bed in Europe?"

If they refuse the bailout, there are a lot of traders that might be a little unnerved by this, as it might mean that Ireland could fall apart economically in the future - and nobody would like that.

The truth is Ireland is actually funded until late Spring, and is in no real danger of coming undone at the moment. However, if interest rates suddenly spike because of fears - that could change rapidly.

I know I gave you two different answers....but these are the scenarios I think are more likely to happen in the near future. Let's put it this way: the USD is up after QE2 announcements. (In general.)

We will see.....but one thing that is obvious: Irish bond markets suddenly got a lot more important. This is the exact same action that preceded the previous Euro sell off. We may have seen this movie already.
  • #11,277
  • Nov 15, 2010 12:21am Nov 15, 2010 12:21am
Quoting clockwork71
Well, it really comes down to what happens next. But in short, I believe that Ireland refusing help is probably going to rattle the markets a bit. One of two things could happen: Either the markets believe Ireland, or they don't. If they don't - it will be obvious by the Irish bond spreads widening. I know you probably don't follow that particular market, (who does?) but if they do - there will be plenty of coverage on it in the traditional channels of news.

I believe that more than likely, there isn't a good answer for the Euro at the moment....
I also struggle with this stuff. Whats the saying? If its in the news its in the price.

But with Ireland and their probs IMO it could go one of two ways. i.e. it could result in Ireland leaving the Euro, which could be positive for the Euro, or they take a bailout and they kick the can down the road a bit.

The wider implication is the domino effect, because whatever happens in Ireland will likely happen in the other peripheral countries.

IMO I think the Euro will survive but there will only be a couple of countries in it(Germany and France maybe) - if that happens sell your house and buy Euros, in the meantime ignore all of it and just trade the technicals - LOL.
  • #11,278
  • Nov 15, 2010 2:36am Nov 15, 2010 2:36am
Chris,
R U still in that EurGbp trade? - you might like to read this..


http://www.ashraflaidi.com/articles/...old-aussie.asp
  • #11,279
  • Edited 5:16am Nov 15, 2010 4:46am | Edited 5:16am
Quoting clockwork71
Well, it really comes down to what happens next. But in short, I believe that Ireland refusing help is probably going to rattle the markets a bit. One of two things could happen: Either the markets believe Ireland, or they don't. If they don't - it will be obvious by the Irish bond spreads widening. I know you probably don't follow that particular market, (who does?) but if they do - there will be plenty of coverage on it in the traditional channels of news.

I believe that more than likely, there isn't a good answer for the Euro at the moment....
More on the Irish/EU debt problem published in the Telegraph today - cloud-cuckoo land springs to mind.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 10:00PM GMT 14 Nov 2010
Comments
Unless the ECB takes fast and dramatic action, it risks destroying the currency it is paid to manage, and allowing a political catastrophe to unfold in Europe.
If mishandled, Ireland could all too easily become a sovereign version of Credit Anstalt - the Austrian bank that brought down the central European financial system in 1931, sent tremors through London and New York, and set off the second deeper phase of the Great Depression, the phase when politics turned ugly.
“Does the ECB understand the concept of contagion?” asked Jacques Cailloux, chief Europe economist at RBS. Three EMU countries have already been shut out of the capital markets, and footloose foreign creditors hold €2 trillion of debt securities issued by Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece.
“If that is not enough to worry about financial contagion, what is? The ECB's lack of action begs the question as to whether it is fulfilling its financial stability mandate,” he said. That is a polite way of putting it.
The eurozone’s fiscal fund (European Financial Stability Facility) is fatally flawed. Like Alpinistas roped together, an ever-reduced core of solvent states are supposed to carry the weight on an ever-widening group of insolvent states dangling beneath them. This lacks political credibility and may be tested to destruction if – as seems likely – Ireland is forced to ask for help. At which moment the chain-reaction begins in earnest, starting with Iberia.
It was a grave error for Germany’s Angela Merkel and France’s Nicolas Sarkozy to invoke the spectre of sovereign defaults and bondholder “haircuts” at this delicate juncture, ignoring warnings from ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet that such talk would set off investor flight from high-debt states.
EU leaders have since made a clumsy attempt to undo the damage, insisting that the policy shift would have “no impact whatsoever” on existing bonds. It would come into force only after mid-2013 under the new bail-out mechanism. Nobody is fooled by such a distinction.
“This is a breath-taking mixture of suicidal irresponsibility and farcical incoherence,” said Marco Annunziata from Unicredit.
“If by 2013 countries like Greece, Ireland and Portugal are still in a shaky position, any new debt issued will carry exorbitant yields. The EU would then have to choose between a full-fledged, open-ended bail-out, and reneging on the promise that existing debt would not be restructured. Will German voters then accept higher taxes to save their profligate neighbours?” he said.
In May it was enough for the EU to announce a €750bn safety-net with the IMF for eurozone debtors. Bond spreads narrowed. A spike in economic output - led by Germany’s rogue growth of 9pc (annualised) in the second quarter – beguiled EU elites into believing that monetary union had survived its ordeal by fire. It had not, and this time they will have to put up real money.
Sadly for Ireland, events have snowballed out of control. Confidence has collapsed before Irish export industries – pharma, medical devices, IT, and backroom services – have had time to pull the country out of its tailspin.
Premier Brian Cowen – who presides over a budget deficit of 32pc of GDP this year - still insists that no rescue is needed. “We have adequate funding right up until July,” he said. Mr Cowan must know this is not enough. Funding for Irish banks has evaporated, and with it funding for Irish firms.
As we learn from leaks that “technical” talks are under way on the terms of any EU bail-out, it can only be a matter of weeks, or days, before Ireland has to tap EFSF – for €80bn to €85bn, says Barclays Capital.
Portugal is in worse shape than Ireland. Total debt is 330pc of GDP. The current account deficit is near 12pc of GDP (while Ireland is moving into surplus). Portuguese banks rely on foreign wholesale funding to cover 40pc of assets.
The country has been trapped in perma-slump with an over-valued currency for almost a decade. Successive waves of austerity have failed to make a lasting dent on the fiscal deficit, yet have been enough to sap the authority of the ruling socialists and revive the far-Left.
Former ministers are already talking openly of the need for an EU-IMF rescue. It is hard to see how Portugal could avoid being sucked into the vortex alongside Ireland. Europe and the IMF would then face a cumulative bail-out bill of €200bn or so. That stretches the EFSF to its credible limits.
The focus would shift instantly to Spain, where economic growth stalled to zero in the third quarter, car sales fell 38pc in October, a 5pc cut in public wages has yet to bite, and roughly 1m unsold homes are still hanging over the property market. The problem is not the Spanish state as such: the Achilles Heel is corporate debt of 137pc of GDP, and the sums owed to foreign creditors that must be rolled over each quarter.
The risks are obvious. Unless core EMU countries raise fresh funds to boost the collateral of the rescue fund, markets will not believe that the EFSF has the firepower to stand behind Spain. Will Germany’s Bundestag vote more funds? Will the Dutch? Tweede Kamer, where right-wing populist Geert Wilders now holds the political balance, adamantly opposes such help, and might well use such a crisis to launch a bid for power.
It is far from clear what would happen if Italy was forced to provide its share of a triple bail-out for Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Italy’s public debt is already near danger point at 115pc of GDP. It is also the third-largest debt in the world after that of Japan and the US. French banks alone have $476bn of exposure to Italian debt (BIS data).
While Italy has kept a tight rein on spending, it is not in good health. Growth has stalled; industrial output fell 2.1pc in September; and the Berlusconi government is disintegrating. Four ministers are expected to resign on Monday.
It is clear by now that IMF-style austerity and debt-deflation is not a workable policy for the high-debt states of peripheral Europe, since it cannot be offset by the IMF cure of devaluation. The collapse of tax revenues has caused fiscal deficits to remain stubbornly high. The real debt burden has risen further.
The ECB is the last line of defence. It can halt the immediate Irish crisis whenever it wishes by buying Irish bonds. Yet instead of pulling out all the stops to save monetary union, the bank is winding down its emergency operations and draining liquidity. It is repeating the policy error it made by raising rates into the teeth of the crisis in July 2008.
Yes, the ECB is already propping up Ireland and Club Med by unlimited lending to local banks that then rotate into their own government debt in an internal “carry trade”. And yes, the ECB is understandably wary of crossing the fateful line from monetary to fiscal policy by funding treasury debt.
Bundesbank chief Axel Weber might fairly conclude that it is impossible at this stage to reconcile the needs of Germany and the big debtors. If the ECB prints money on the scale required to underpin the South, it would set off German inflation, destroy German faith in monetary union, and perhaps run afoul of Germany’s constitutional court. If EMU must split in two, it might as well be done on Teutonic terms.
All this is understandable, but is Chancellor Merkel really going to let subordinate officials at the ECB destroy Germany’s half-century investment in the post-war order of Europe, and risk Götterdämmerung?
  • #11,280
  • Nov 15, 2010 10:28am Nov 15, 2010 10:28am
Quoting stewrigh
Chris,
R U still in that EurGbp trade? - you might like to read this..


http://www.ashraflaidi.com/articles/...old-aussie.asp
Yep.
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