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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #20,221
  • Nov 10, 2010 7:27am Nov 10, 2010 7:27am
Ok - let's get prepared for the news :-)
Once again I'm squarred on all pairs.

Do not have any idea how the figs are going to look like.
But that's not neccessary. Just let's take a look at the expectetaions in relation to the released figs and let us follow the pure PA.
Usually you get an idea very fast, what the market is really thinking. And that's for sure not always the direction of the first spike ...

So let'S see ....
  • #20,222
  • Nov 10, 2010 7:35am Nov 10, 2010 7:35am
Well - I'm USD bull now for the time being ....
  • #20,223
  • Nov 10, 2010 7:54am Nov 10, 2010 7:54am
Quoting MaMood
Well - I'm USD bull now for the time being ....
MaMood,

the US$ weekly index seems at support
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$US...4242258&r=2623

So potentially we could have rebound on US$ (on daily perspective).
  • #20,224
  • Nov 10, 2010 8:00am Nov 10, 2010 8:00am
Quoting MaMood
Well - I'm USD bull now for the time being ....
Hi MaMood, I've been selling the E/$ on pull backs this morning, and buying the E/J all morning long. The E/$ seems to find support at about 1.3755 which is where I have exited three trades, but PA breaking below that may really move. Good trading everyone!
  • #20,225
  • Nov 10, 2010 8:22am Nov 10, 2010 8:22am
Quoting MaMood
Well - I'm USD bull now for the time being ....

So far I have done a 2 phase rescue for my EU short scout.
Average price now 3788
Maybe I'm on the wrong side right now. But my MO is to take the scout out, when feeling really wrong or unconvinient. Or to keep the bias till I have clear sign that I'm wrong on M15 or H1 chart. For the moment that has not happened

@justh: Thanx for info. noted.
  • #20,226
  • Nov 10, 2010 8:23am Nov 10, 2010 8:23am
Quoting GEfx
Hi MaMood, I've been selling the E/$ on pull backs this morning, and buying the E/J all morning long. The E/$ seems to find support at about 1.3755 which is where I have exited three trades, but PA breaking below that may really move. Good trading everyone!

Hi GE,
so are you in range trading mode for EU too I guess?
  • #20,227
  • Nov 10, 2010 8:30am Nov 10, 2010 8:30am
Quoting MaMood
So far I have done a 2 phase rescue for my EU short scout.
Average price now 3788
Maybe I'm on the wrong side right now. But my MO is to take the scout out, when feeling really wrong or unconvinient. Or to keep the bias till I have clear sign that I'm wrong on M15 or H1 chart. For the moment that has not happened

@justh: Thanx for info. noted.

So far things are going as expected. When getting close to range bottom, I'll take small attack out and will wait to get in again at the top of range. As long as the elevator keeps going I'll try to charge some pips :-)

15:32 - Attack back home at 3763 (sold at 3782). Scout still in. Have reduced exposure becuase of Wall Street opening right now ...
  • #20,228
  • Nov 10, 2010 8:32am Nov 10, 2010 8:32am
Quoting MaMood
Hi GE,
so are you in range trading mode for EU too I guess?
Yes, selling at 3795-3800, exiting at 3756. Back in now and waiting for the hit at 3756.
  • #20,229
  • Edited 8:45am Nov 10, 2010 8:35am | Edited 8:45am
Quoting GEfx
Yes, selling at 3795-3800, exiting at 3756. Back in now and waiting for the hit at 3756.
There you are.
Let's wait for the next run down ;-)

15:41 - or we will see a little break down :-)
15:43 - interesting that USDJPY is not moving. Have no idea to make any advantage out of it, but I'll keep an eye on it. This move down was pretty much preindicated by the DOW and EJ. Not sure wich was front running. But at least both have been in fron of EU ...
  • #20,230
  • Nov 10, 2010 8:40am Nov 10, 2010 8:40am
Quoting MaMood
There you are.
Let's wait for the next run down ;-)
Yep, I am out and waiting again, but now watching the E/J for possible reversal opty. We'll see...
  • #20,231
  • Nov 10, 2010 8:41am Nov 10, 2010 8:41am
tendency for EU to break 1.37 is quite high.
  • #20,232
  • Edited 8:59am Nov 10, 2010 8:48am | Edited 8:59am
Quoting MaMood
There you are.
Let's wait for the next run down ;-)

15:41 - or we will see a little break down :-)
15:43 - interesting that USDJPY is not moving. Have no idea to make any advantage out of it, but I'll keep an eye on it. This move down was pretty much preindicated by the DOW and EJ. Not sure wich was front running. But at least both have been in fron of EU ...
15:47 - DOW is running for a new low. Let's wait for EU
15:50 - and here we are ...
15:51 - careful now, cause we are approaching the next round number level. Do not feel that there is enough momentum to see a clear straight break. Expecting some more fight there. Have scout still in and had a small attack down from retracement to new low following DOW preindication ...
15:54 - first attempt. But not much SL dynamic below 1.37 ...
15:56 - that have been the SL's now. Waiting for DOW, if there could be a continuation ...
15:59 - DOW was rejected at Pivot S1 level. So we need a new attempt. Prepared for attack, but want to see PA first ..
  • #20,233
  • Nov 10, 2010 8:54am Nov 10, 2010 8:54am
Quoting MaMood
15:47 - DOW is running for a new low. Let's wait for EU
15:50 - and here we are ...
15:51 - careful now, cause we are approaching the next round number level. Do not feel that there is enough momentum to see a clear straight break. Expecting some more fight there. Have scout still in and had a small attack down from retracement to new low following DOW preindication ...
I am patiently waiting now rather than jumping in.
  • #20,234
  • Edited 9:13am Nov 10, 2010 9:01am | Edited 9:13am
Quoting GEfx
I am patiently waiting now rather than jumping in.
Yeah, me too. We have gone relatively far for now. 100 pips in a straight line on M5 chart ...

16:02 - checking Cable for an opportunity now. H4 chart shows a candle with a very long wick at the top. Well - H4 charts are looking different in relation to the timezone we are in ...
16:05 - attention!
16:06 - my attention above was based on preindication of DOW and EJ
16:08 - losing concentration now. Will stop trading now. Not sure if move has found a bottom for now. At least to stay very careful now. From my point of view the session after US news release was relative easy to trade. Just oriented on PA and Momentum ..

Hope it has given you some hints how to earn the pips :-)

CU,
MaMood
  • #20,235
  • Nov 10, 2010 9:08am Nov 10, 2010 9:08am
I'm going to remember 2010 as the PIIGS year for sure. Dow already plunged about 100 points in less then an hour... Ben is not happy.

And on the other hand... http://www.reuters.com/article/bonds...17392920101110
  • #20,236
  • Nov 10, 2010 9:08am Nov 10, 2010 9:08am
Quoting MaMood
Yeah, me too. We have gone relatively far for now. 100 pips in a straight line on M5 chart ...

16:02 - checking Cable for an opportunity now. H4 chart shows a candle with a very long wick at the top. Well - H4 charts are looking different realting to the timezone we are in ...
16:05 - attention!
16:06 - my attention above was based on preindication of DOW and EJ
Yep, I am switching to the GBP$ and short at 1.6039, protecting the entry price for now. Let's see if it can play catch up...

Edit: flat now at 6039
  • #20,237
  • Nov 10, 2010 9:16am Nov 10, 2010 9:16am
Quoting Setebos
I'm going to remember 2010 as the PIIGS year for sure. Dow already plunged about 100 points in less then an hour... Ben is not happy.

And on the other hand... http://www.reuters.com/article/bonds...17392920101110
Yeah most probably it will be titled the same in my memoires :-)
Aaah - the link shows that the auction will take place at 18:00 GMT
So'll be alerted then ...
  • #20,238
  • Nov 10, 2010 9:54am Nov 10, 2010 9:54am
16:53 - hmmh, will we see a continuation of that move that soon? Can't believe. At least USDJPY is testing the past high with good momentum again. But Dow is not supporting a further move down for now. So there is no other chance than to stay alerted and have the eyes focussed on the charts ...
  • #20,239
  • Nov 10, 2010 10:33am Nov 10, 2010 10:33am
A little off topic:

have you ever used the Win7 integrated speech recognition?
Seems to work great (at least in in german).
Experimenting to dictate my trading diary ...

Seems to be a great tool to get your thoughts while trading into a written form ...

do not have expected that it works that good ...

maybe I can speak my trading comments in here soon.
Have to train the software for my english now ....
  • #20,240
  • Nov 10, 2010 12:07pm Nov 10, 2010 12:07pm
Just for info:

1803 GMT [Dow Jones] Investors were worried about 30-year sale and rightfully so. 30-yr Tsys sold at 4.320% yield, above 4.281% on when-issued before sale, meaning bonds sold for a lower price. Bid to cover was 2.31, way below the 2.72 average for the last four 30-yr sales. Treasurys falling,. 30-yr off over a point to 4.330%.([email protected])

Disclaimer: be aware of possible COw dung included :-)
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