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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #20,201
  • Nov 9, 2010 4:56pm Nov 9, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting Gro
not catch you , each stay in their comfort zone.

PS I do not watch or the results of fundamental news, only watch the hours when the madness made.I think, "big guys" read info from the market as I do ... and the market has its own balance.
(secret I read the Russian news, sometimes).

Rgs


Was pondering to stay awake through Asian session, but I go to bed right now. There are major news tomorrow, so I expect to see good vola again.

Wish you all the best!

CU arround London Opening!
MaMood
  • #20,202
  • Nov 9, 2010 11:36pm Nov 9, 2010 11:36pm
Just for info:

0319 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/JPY may rise to 82.50 later in global day as short-term investors, who willing to cover short USD positions, focusing on triggering stop-loss buy orders above 82.00, says senior dealer at major bank in Tokyo; adds amount of these orders at least several hundred million dollars. Says Asian investors await London players to join market as they may jump on bandwagon. Also says investors will pay attention to stocks, Italy bond auction later in day. Pair last 81.75. ([email protected])

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #20,203
  • Nov 10, 2010 12:03am Nov 10, 2010 12:03am
Just for info:


TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The euro fell against the dollar Wednesday in Asia as renewed concerns over European debt issues gave investors an excuse to take profits by squaring the currency holdings they had built.
The euro has been falling against the dollar in the past few days, as the market focus has returned to European sovereign debt problems, highlighted by the widening of Irish and Portuguese credit-default swaps.
Still, many Tokyo dealers said the dollar's strength won't last, as seasonal factors have been pushing the currency up.
"Thanks to weakness in the dollar recently, hedge funds have been pocketing huge profits just by buying back the unit they sold earlier this year," said Tsutomu Soma, a senior dealer at Okasan Securities. "And now is a good time to do so because year-end closing of the books is nearing."
He added that the issue of European fiscal health is just being used as an excuse for such transactions because such talk has been circulating in the market for months.
Therefore, the dollar's recent appreciation "isn't a positive one," meaning the greenback will likely resume falling as soon as investors finish clearing out their portfolios, Soma said.
"Think about it--the U.S. is supplying the world with tons of dollars. From the supply-demand perspective, there's no reason for the U.S. currency to remain strong," he said.
The euro was at $1.3761 as of 0450 GMT, from $1.3772 overnight in New York.

The dollar was a tad weaker against the yen at Y81.78 from Y81.83 due to selling by Japanese exporters. But that is clearly higher compared with last week's levels of below the Y81.00-mark.
The greenback's ascent versus the yen isn't healthy either, dealers noted, saying the rise is based on technical factors.

The U.S. currency's rise above Y81.00 was largely due to the execution of automated stop-loss buying orders, and dealers don't rule out the risk of the dollar going as high as Y82.50 if similar automated orders above Y82.00 are triggered.

Otherwise, there is no change in the long-term trend of investors' eagerness to test the dollar's all-time low of Y79.75, they said.
For the rest of the global day, investors will pay attention to an auction of U.S. 30-year Treasury bonds.
If the result meets poor demand and fuels inflationary expectations, the dollar may start falling, said Barclays Capital's currency strategist Masafumi Yamamoto.

"If inflationary expectations rises, real interest rates in the U.S. will fall. That should weigh on the dollar," he said.
The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 77.768 from 77.742 in New York. The euro was at Y112.56 from Y112.72.
-By Takashi Mochizuki, Dow Jones Newswires; 813-6269-2782; [email protected]

Disclaimer: Be aware of possible Cow Dung included ;-)
  • #20,204
  • Edited 2:16am Nov 10, 2010 1:52am | Edited 2:16am
Difficult terrain now in all 3Kgds.
Will stay a little longer patient at the side lines.
Rejection of 1.38 was a sign of good supply at that level.
Need more input to determine my trading bias for now ....

08:56 - if we see a rejection again, I'll assume a ranging market for now and will trade the range with short bias. But I want to wait at least till the London Boys are in ...
09:04 - still waiting. DAX has opened with a down gap of ~30 pips. In case the market tries to close it, EU should rubberbanded following that move up. Will wait for a clear indication and keep my eyes focussed on entries for a slightly short bias ....
09:08 - that isjsut what I'm looking atm. No predictions - thoughts only. Main decision is done on PA, respectively momentum ....
09:09 - EJ has some down momentum now. Have my fingers on the trigger for EU short scout now ...
  • #20,205
  • Nov 10, 2010 2:10am Nov 10, 2010 2:10am
Morning guys,

I hope you stayed safe during last night's massacre during the US session.

Amazing what a change in the silver margin requirements can trigger across the board...

It seems we have a very news-rich day today so there should be descent vola to play with. Also, today will be announced the new (bigger and better wannabe) POMO schedule for those 600 billion heli money.
Everyone's eyes are on the the yield curve in the US so stay extra nimble during the US session and keep and eye on the treasuries-related news.

Rgrds
S
  • #20,206
  • Edited 2:45am Nov 10, 2010 2:17am | Edited 2:45am
09:13 - Waiting for building of "LOndon Range". Have see the low for now at 3757. Waiting for the next swing high to most propabaly enter my short scout. Trading the evolving London range then for the time being ...
09:17 - Thanx for your headsup, Stan. Yeah there is a 30y auction later in NY. Where do you get the schedule from for this events? or is there no calender with exact timing ?
09:19 - EU is following Equities/DAX for some minutes now. Waiting to spot a trun down again, to deploy my scout ...
09:21 - BTW: a break with good momentum above 1.38 will invalidate all my thoughts and expectations
09:27 - careful now. Very strong M15 candle. Will take some more minutes to check situatuion. But my short bias is fading out and may be I'll take a long scout then. patience ..
09:43 - Hmmmh - send in a long scout at 3810, but was feeling wrong, so I took him out again. Send in a short scout at 3812, but was feeling worng as well, so i took him out again. That is a strong indication, that my mindset is not right atm. So I wait a little longer ...
  • #20,207
  • Nov 10, 2010 3:00am Nov 10, 2010 3:00am
Quoting MaMood
09:13 - Waiting for building of "LOndon Range". Have see the low for now at 3757. Waiting for the next swing high to most propabaly enter my short scout. Trading the evolving London range then for the time being ...
09:17 - Thanx for your headsup, Stan. Yeah there is a 30y auction later in NY. Where do you get the schedule from for this events? or is there no calender with exact timing ?
09:19 - EU is following Equities/DAX for some minutes now. Waiting to spot a trun down again, to deploy my scout ...
09:21 - BTW: a break with good momentum above...
MaMood

Really good to be able to follow along with your commentary. I'm still in this short with a scout from last night. Was hoping to catch a move that would last a few days. See what unfolds
With wisdom comes humility. With humility comes wisdom!
  • #20,208
  • Nov 10, 2010 3:14am Nov 10, 2010 3:14am
Quoting piphop
MaMood

Really good to be able to follow along with your commentary. I'm still in this short with a scout from last night. Was hoping to catch a move that would last a few days. See what unfolds

Thanx piphop,

but please try to be not influenced by my commentaries. That are just my thoughts with NO guaranty to become reality. And as you can see, this morning has started really bumby for my trading.

Hope your exposure is not to strong.
Still have no idea, what should be the bias for the next 30 minutes.

So stay nimble ;-)
  • #20,209
  • Nov 10, 2010 3:20am Nov 10, 2010 3:20am
@piphop:

At least you should ponder about a plan/strategy, what you will do with your bad scout/troops before the US figs are coming out.
Hoping for a quick rescue with takeprofit target set can save you ass, but could also kill your book.

So at least you should realign your troops till then.

Good Fortune!!!
  • #20,210
  • Nov 10, 2010 3:34am Nov 10, 2010 3:34am
Quoting MaMood
@piphop:

At least you should ponder about a plan/strategy, what you will do with your bad scout/troops before the US figs are coming out.
Hoping for a quick rescue with takeprofit target set can save you ass, but could also kill your book.

So at least you should realign your troops till then.

Good Fortune!!!
MaMood

Maybe you misunderstood me. I am in Short from 11 hours ago and therefore currently in profit. Thanks for all your helpful advice. Yes I know only too well how easily it can all turn pear shaped. Trying to remain nimble! Aware of US announcement at 11:30 pm my time.
With wisdom comes humility. With humility comes wisdom!
  • #20,211
  • Nov 10, 2010 3:40am Nov 10, 2010 3:40am
Quoting piphop
MaMood

Maybe you misunderstood me. I am in Short and therefore currently in profit. Thanks for all your helpful advice. Yes I know only too well how easily it can all turn pear shaped. Trying to remain nimble! Aware of US announcement at 11:30 pm my time.
Oh sorry PipHop.
I'm happy to hear that I was wrong :-)
Cool!

Have not made much pips out of that yesterday action. Was allmost all the time not in front of my screen, when the rallies started in NY afternoon session...

Cu,
MaMood
  • #20,212
  • Nov 10, 2010 4:20am Nov 10, 2010 4:20am
In about 10 minutes we wil see some GBP relevant figs.
Juts right now I'm squarred but ready to jump in, if the news are providing some food for the masses to move the market at least for some minutes ....

Stay nimble!

MaMood
  • #20,213
  • Nov 10, 2010 4:51am Nov 10, 2010 4:51am
Well - I jumped in long after the retrace to 6015 area and took some pips.
So finally I managed my fresh €500 accout after a very rough start this morning to finally grow to €626. Round about 50 EUR made out of this news release.

What you can also see is, that I have had a very ugly start this morning.
But with great focus on the charts I was able to fight my book back into profit range. The main finding was, as I had posted in my trading thoughts this morning, that I detected, that my mindest was not ok. So I was able to realing my trading and refocus after a short break spent on reading some other threats ...

That is not a proof of a very elegant and sophisticated session, but shows that it is possible to make your pips even with hard work ...

Have to leave for lunch now, but I'm very keen to trade US session :-)

Cu,
MaMood


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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-11-10_500Acc02.gif Size: 86 KB
  • #20,214
  • Nov 10, 2010 4:54am Nov 10, 2010 4:54am
Quoting MaMood
09:13 - Waiting for building of "LOndon Range". Have see the low for now at 3757. Waiting for the next swing high to most propabaly enter my short scout. Trading the evolving London range then for the time being ...
09:17 - Thanx for your headsup, Stan. Yeah there is a 30y auction later in NY. Where do you get the schedule from for this events? or is there no calender with exact timing ?
09:19 - EU is following Equities/DAX for some minutes now. Waiting to spot a trun down again, to deploy my scout ...
09:21 - BTW: a break with good momentum above...
Hi Niels,

The so far POMO schedule was on the NY Fed website. The new one will be announced at 2pm NY EST here: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/to..._schedule.html

Rgrds
S
  • #20,215
  • Nov 10, 2010 5:30am Nov 10, 2010 5:30am
Quoting MaMood
Well - I jumped in long after the retrace to 6015 area and took some pips.
So finally I managed my fresh €500 accout after a very rough start this morning to finally grow to €626. Round about 50 EUR made out of this news release.

What you can also see is, that I have had a very ugly start this morning.
But with great focus on the charts I was able to fight my book back into profit range. The main finding was, as I had posted in my trading thoughts this morning, that I detected, that my mindest was not ok. So I was able to realing my trading and...
quick question : what is it that i am misunderstanding or missed that allows you to open up to over 3 lots with a 500 pound account?
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #20,216
  • Nov 10, 2010 5:36am Nov 10, 2010 5:36am
The PBoC hiked the reserve requirement rates this morning (from TTN) - this will likely affect all banks and possibly create surge for dollars across the board. Need to be extra careful.
  • #20,217
  • Nov 10, 2010 6:18am Nov 10, 2010 6:18am
Quoting nubcake
quick question : what is it that i am misunderstanding or missed that allows you to open up to over 3 lots with a 500 pound account?
Hi nubcake,

have explained it somewhere in the deep of this thread or maybe TAF Lounge ...
I call it "over leveraging". It is possible only wit a broker that allows hedging. Usually MT4 forces you to let at least 100% of your equity untouched. With a little trick you can go behind that ...

Trick: You open a position in the oposite direction so that you are at least flat, when using the same overall lotsize, as as the original trade did. Then you are allowed to open some more positions in the original direction. After that have done, I close out the hedge again and so I'm far below the 100% requirement

But that should only be done with the same care you are going for a leveraged flip, cause it will eat you really fast, when done with wrong timing. I usually do it on small accounts, when a rescue is going wrong and margin restrictions do not allow an additional rescue level. I use the counter swing for the hedge and than deploy the next level rescue, when counter swing is fading out and there is a good chance to go further in original direction of troops. (in my blotter the 3.34 sell was the "hedge" for generating some more margin to add the new long rescue with 2.16 lots. As you can see, the counter swing was not large enough to bring my hedge to break even before I had to close it again with 142 EUR loss.)

Very risky and not recommendet!!!!
You will never have to do such dirty tricks, when yoz are dancing with patience and good capitalisation. But that is for sure not the case with a 500EUR account with 0.1 lot minimum lotsize ....


CU,
MaMood
  • #20,218
  • Nov 10, 2010 6:19am Nov 10, 2010 6:19am
Quoting Setebos
Hi Niels,

The so far POMO schedule was on the NY Fed website. The new one will be announced at 2pm NY EST here: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/to..._schedule.html

Rgrds
S
Thanx!
  • #20,219
  • Nov 10, 2010 6:21am Nov 10, 2010 6:21am
Quoting MaMood
Well - I jumped in long after the retrace to 6015 area and took some pips.
So finally I managed my fresh €500 accout after a very rough start this morning to finally grow to €626. Round about 50 EUR made out of this news release.

What you can also see is, that I have had a very ugly start this morning.
But with great focus on the charts I was able to fight my book back into profit range. The main finding was, as I had posted in my trading thoughts this morning, that I detected, that my mindest was not ok. So I was able to realing my trading and...
Hi MaMood

You have a heart of a warrior.Your own description of the market, this I like to read.Very appreciated.
You wrote that you have disturbed mindset = ACHTUNG!!! You trade + thread = much activity(stres?)

2.01.04
Maintaining a state of alertness and having strategies for all eventualities;
and
- Mental agility and physical robustness with dedicated facilities to recharge the charisma and moral.

"He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared."
After every battle forget about the glory , as well as its pain
- the next batlle will be totally different.
Have stress control.
-Meditate,
-Exercise
-Talk the family out,
-try a new hobby,
-get drunk or maybe have a fling.
- go to church, do social work,
- spend some money.
- listen to music.
The important thing is to get the mind off trading.
See no market, Hear no market, Talk no market."

Rgs
  • #20,220
  • Nov 10, 2010 6:26am Nov 10, 2010 6:26am
Quoting MaMood
Hi nubcake,

have explained it somewhere in the deep of this thread or maybe TAF Lounge ...
I call it "over leveraging". It is possible only wit a broker that allows hedging. Usually MT4 forces you to let at least 100% of your equity untouched. With a little trick you can go behind that ...

[size=1][color=gray]Trick: You open a position in the oposite direction so that you are at least flat, when using the same overall lotsize, as as the original trade did. Then you are allowed to open some more positions in the original direction. After that...
hmm. i always thought any new position chewed free margin, and that was where you get locked-out of opening any further positions. interesting. had never seen that before. cool thx.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
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