Winsor's 5 Expert Advisors in Real Time

Winsor,

I am a fan and I think you're doing a great job.

I wanted to know if you ever go back and adjust your EAs? Market conditions change all the time and different months of the year have different inherent market behavior.

I've noticed that you have an average volatility of about 2%-3% which is moderate but still a little high when compared to other investments in over areas.

I am interested to know what do you measure and how, if at all, are you adjusting your EAs.

-- ASaf.

October 22, 2010 Update

It has been a tough week of trading for both Leah & Jasmine systems. Have we upset the market gods? I think so! It is our goal to achieve 35% per year while Jasmine went on a tear and shot past the +7,000 pips (70% ROI). Leah also surpassed the +5,000 (50% ROI) pips and all of these results were done less than five months. As I have eluded in my previous posts, it is impossible to sustain this rapid ascend in the equity curve. Drawdowns are expected; hence, you don’t compound the trading lot size when you winning. Often the greatest victories are followed by the worse defeats; hence, you always plan for the worse. Never declare victory over the market or allow victories to go to you head.

One of the most important elements in Forex trading is not to lose your perspective. Forex trading is challenging and there will be good months and bad months. It is a reason why I have a yearly performance goal instead of the weekly or monthly performance goals. I think of forex trading as a long term investment and not a get rich quick scheme. Be aware that the maximum drawdown for Leah & Jasmine can be as much as 4,000 pips; hence, make sure that you have enough reserve in your account to absorb the super typhoon. This is the reason why the accounts are set up with $10,000. In an event of a super typhoon immediately after turning on the trading systems, Leah & Jasmine accounts can go as low as $6,000. If your starting capital is $3,000, and you are trading with a mini lot (1 pip = $1), you will blow up your account before any chances of a recovery. At the moment, all systems are operating within parameters. Think of this drawdown as an offering to soothe the market gods. Presently, Leah is still bullish on the EURUSD. It has opened six buy trades with a floating profit of +175 pips, see attached chart. As always our maximum stop loss is 100 pips and our maximum take profit is 240 pips.

Let’s see what will come out from the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in South Korea this weekend. Have a great week and remember to be humble!

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal.../LeahOct22.png

ASaf,

These EAs have build in shut down when the maximum drawdown is hit. Please refer to my recent October 22 update "Have We Upset the Market Gods?" There is no plan for adjustment until the maximum drawdown is hit. It is impossible to eliminate losses as risk and reward go together. This drawdown is part of the risk factor and is not a surprise.

October 25, 2010 Update

I hope that everyone had a great weekend. It is a windy Monday and currently raining in Vancouver. I am glad that I am inside with my fireplace going. A quick update on Jasmine then I am back playing with the MT5 trading platform. I am excited to compare my live trading results vs. the MT5 tester which claims to be more accurate.

Currently, Jasmine has six open trades with +244 pips. Two EURUSD buy trades were opened on Thursday, October 21, at 1.39314 and 1.39308 and the Euro when as high as 1.4080. Subsystems 7 & 8 did not take profit and may have missed their chances to cash in. It is always 20/20 in hindsight, and that is how things work. We don’t expect every trade to be a big winner. Jasmine’s four EURUSD sell trades are opened today October 25, 2010 at 16:00 and 18:00. These sell trades are currently floating with +231 pip profit, see attached chart.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...smineOct25.png

Green Thumb in the Garden vs. Green Thumb in Forex Trading

October 26, 2010 Update

If you trade Forex, you must have the same patience and discipline as a gardener. Let’s take your lawn for example, if you want a green and rich lawn you will need to fertilize at least four times a year: early spring, early summer, late summer and fall. Besides that you will need to mow your lawn twice a week and water it every day during the hot summer days. Trading forex has the same care and discipline. You will need to formulate your trading plan, execute it and then follow with your game plan. Let’s take Haley trading system as an example. It started with $10,000 and went up to $12,000 (+2,000 pips profit). A few weeks later, it went down to $11,000, and then down to $9,500. This is a drawdown of $2,500. Most traders would modify their game plan because of the drawdown i.e. adding more filters, making stop loss larger or lowering the take profit. Traders don’t realize that it is impossible to eliminate the losses in trading.

As stated earlier, Haley has a maximum drawdown of $4,000; hence, a loss of $2,500 is within our limit. If you are constantly changing your trading system or strategy, you will not be able to observe the things that are working for you. You must stick to the game plan regarding of the market movement. To have a green thumb in Forex trading, you must stick to your game plan a.k.a. trading strategy. Don’t jump from one strategy to another because the lawn is also greener on the other side. Presently, Haley has four GBPUSD buy trades and one sell trade with +440 pips in floating profit, see attached chart. Let’s see if it can break the $11,000 mark in the next few weeks.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...HaleyOct26.png

Applying Sun Tzu’s the Art of War to Forex Trading

October 29, 2010 Update

In Sun Tzu’s Art of War, he states that it is better to take the high ground and wait for your enemy to come to you. By taking the high ground you have the best odds of winning. In automated trading, logical entry and exit criteria are built in; hence, the software is never responding to the market. The software monitors the market 24 hours per day and waits the price to hit a certain threshold to execute the trade. There are no greed and fear; thus, there is no stress to you. The hardest thing about automated trading is learning to give up control. It is in the art of giving where you will be blessed with more opportunities to make money.

Attached is the snapshot of Jasmine trading system. It is currently at $16,581 (+6,581 pips), a gain of 65% after five months of trading.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...smineoct29.png

NFA orders monetary sanction of $320,000 against New York forex firm IKON Global Markets

October 28, Chicago - National Futures Association (NFA) has ordered IKON Global Markets, Inc. (IKON), a forex dealer member to pay a fine of $320,000 as a result of an NFA Complaint issued and a settlement offer submitted by IKON and its principal, Diwakar Jagannath.

The Complaint alleged that IKON engaged in certain price slippage practices on the MetaTrader platform that were favorable to IKON and caused disadvantageous trading conditions for certain customers. The Complaint also charged that IKON failed to supervise the MetaTrader platform used for their forex business, and failed to supervise the firm's operations.

In addition to the fine amount, IKON must provide appropriate refunds to its customers as a result of these asymmetrical slippage practices.

IKON and Jagannath neither admitted nor denied the charges. The complete text of the Complaint and Decision are available on NFA's website (www.nfa.futures.org).

November 2010 Performance Report for Winsor’s Five Automated Trading Systems

November 1, 2010 Update

Below are the trading results of my five expert advisors since May 21, 2010 (5.5 months).

Haley = +639 pips (6.4%) with 343 trades trading GBPUSD
Jasmine = +6,449 pips (64.5%) with 503 trades trading EURUSD
Leah = +4,022 pips (40.2%) with 448 trades trading EURUSD
Mellisa = -2,255 pips (-22.6%) with 380 trades trading USDCHF
Sienna = -1,700 pips (-17.0%) with 664 trades trading EURUSD

If you haven’t downloaded my software, below is the link again. The installation takes 30 seconds. Feel free to forward the software to a friend.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...EX_dot_COM.zip
1) Download the zip file onto your desktop
2) Unzip the file and follow the README text file.

Take Responsibility When You are Using Automated Trading Systems

November 2, 2010 Update

At the last count, I have approximately 3,000 traders who have downloaded and installed my trading software. Out of these 3,000 traders, approximately 2,000 traders stopped following because the five trading systems were not making money fast enough for them. Some traders were disappointed because when they started to follow and these trading systems did not make money right away. Everyone is looking for the Holy Grail to become the next Billionaire over night. Sorry, you will have to go elsewhere because my trading systems are based on steady growth.

Some traders love to place blame, i.e. your trading systems use such wide stop loss, your trading systems have been losing for the last three weeks, and etc. If you plan to use my trading systems, please be committed to the long haul. I have five trading systems, and you can be unlucky and picked the two losing systems to run on your accounts. My trading software is an investment tool. Like all investments, there is an element of risk. One of the worse knee jerk reactions is turning off the software as it is going through a drawdown period (risk). It seems that everyone is interested in winning trades (reward) and drawdown period (risk) is unacceptable.

Repetition is the mother of all learning – the best time to enter a trading system is when it is losing. You want to avoid chasing a winning system and to wait for a pullback before turning it on. Recently, Jasmine went through a drawdown period of 1,000 pips, and I heard lots of disappointments over it. Please note the maximum drawdown for Jasmine can be as high as 4,000 pips. This is the reason why Jasmine trades with a fixed 0.1 lot. The maximum drawdown could happen this year, next year, or three years from now. It is best to account for the worst-case scenario and take responsibility when you are using these automated trading systems. It is impossible to eliminate risks, since we need risks to obtain rewards. A good analogy to trading is like surfing. A surfer enjoys the free spirit, exhilaration, & control as he rides down a wave when it breaks. This is the surfer reward. A surfer can wipe out if he is careless or during heavy swells. Unlike surfing, we don’t know when the heavy swell going to hit; hence, it is best to be well prepare for it.

Presently, Jasmine account is at $16,598 with six open trades. There are 5 EURUSD buy trades and one EURUSD sell trade with a total of $550 floating profit, see attached chart. After the quick drawdown, Jasmine has recovered all its gain. Its current equity stands at $17,149.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...asmineNov2.png

FOMC’s Announcement on the Second Round of Quantitative Easing

November 3, 2010 Update

Did any of you trade the FOMC announcement today? I am not a fan of news trading; hence, I was not aware of it. I only noticed the wild spike in the price of EURUSD, and that is how I found out about it. I was out enjoying the beautiful sunshine weather in Vancouver and having sushi with my siblings.

Only a handful of traders can make quick money with news trading while the majority of traders take the risk of quick losses. During the news like this, brokers can widen their spreads, and this will work against you. Now do you appreciate why the maximum stop loss of my trading systems is 120 pips? Since my stop loss and take profit are in place, news don’t bother me. The Forex market requires volatility; hence, any news that can move the market, I am all for it.

Attached is the snap shot of Leah trading system. It is currently holding a EURUSD buy trade with +76 pips floating profit. Our current balance is $14,617 (46% gain in the last 5.5 months).

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...0/LeahNov3.png

US and UK Stock Markets Hit Two-Year Highs

November 4, 2010 Update

Everyone seems to be a lot happier with the decision by the Federal Reserve to pump more money into the US economy, $600 billion smiling little faces. If I was the Federal Reserve, I would do the same thing. People may think that they are poor because their houses are underwater due to the depressed real estate market. Let’s cheer them up by increasing the stock market; hence, this will increase people’s net worth. Don’t worry about it, it is on a monthly plan, and the interest rate is extremely low. When you think that the stock market cannot go any higher, WRONG. It can and will go up a lot higher.

Attached is the snapshot of Haley automated trading system. The balance is $11,028 and it is currently holding only one GBPUSD buy trade.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal.../HaleyNov4.png

The Financial Market on a Sugar Rush

November 5, 2010 Update

The Dow Jones closed this week at 11,444 and the NASDAQ closed at 2,578. The stocks end at 2-year highs. Some claims that the midterm elections had something to do with it. The Republicans won control of the House, and they are viewed as more business friendly than the Democrats. The Fed’s announcement of Quantitative Easing 2 was the sugar rush to stimulate the economy. Sweet!

Gold price went as high as $1,398 and the Canadian and US dollars are at parity. More Canadians will head south shopping to do our neighborly thing and help to simulate the US economy. Back to Jasmine automated trading system, it has regained most of its recent drawdown, and its equity stands at $17, 411 (71.4%). We got really lucky with Jasmine as it has double its annual target of 35% ROI. Please keep this in mind as Jasmine will not be able to match this perform for next year. If next year Jasmine performs poorly, don’t write it off as each trading system has a cyclical yearly performance. Jasmine is currently holding five EURUSUD sell trades and one EURUSD buy trade, see attached chart.

Have a great weekend everyone!

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...asmineNov5.png

Male Drivers, Male Forex Traders, Same Bad Results

November 8, 2010 Update

A British insurance company found male drivers travel approximately 400 kms more each year because they refuse to ask for a direction when lost. I guess that is why I love my GPS, and I always travel with it. Does anyone know the statistic of male vs. female forex traders? I would imagine that the majority is male traders. More than 90% forex traders lose their money because they don’t ask for help. I believe it that the male ego is often larger than his IQ. Back to Leah trading system (non male), the currently balance is at $15,321 with two EURUSD open trades. These two trades were not sold at the top but were executed during the Euro downtrend. The floating profit of the two trades is 423 pips, and they are approximated 30 pips from the maximum take profit of 240 pips, see attached chart.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...0/LeahNov8.png

Keeping Your Mind Set on Winning the Forex Trading War

November 9, 2010 Update

Today was a challenging day for Jasmine as it dropped 400 pips, see attached chart. It is difficult not to be reminded of the losses, since they are in our trading history. We just lost a battle, but we are still ahead of the game. Currently, our balance is at $17,586; hence, we still have a profit of $7,586 (75%) for the last six months. Do you see why psychology plays such a large role in trading? The computer does not have any emotions; hence, it is more superior in dealing with losses.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...asmineNov9.png

Maximum Drawdown for Swing Trader

November 10, 2010 Update

Yesterday was a bad day for Haley since all five of its GBPUSD buy trades were stopped out with a total loss of 445 pips. As I have mentioned before the maximum drawdown of Haley is 4,000 pips. Thus, a loss of 445 pips is not a big deal for a swing trader. The majority of Forex traders are scalpers; hence, a loss of 445 pips may wipe out your entire account. This is because most traders are over leveraged and are always compounding their profits. With a good money management, you always plan for a maximum drawdown. This is the reason why all the accounts started with $10,000. If we are unlucky and the drawdown hit immediately after we started trading, the minimum balance in our account will be $6,000. We still have ample of capital left instead of wiping out our entire accounts. Scalper takes notes.

Alright that is enough of the preaching. After the five consecutive losses, Haley cashed out on two winning trades with a total profit of +177 pips. Currently, Haley is floating with +261 pips on its four open trades, see attached chart.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...HaleyNov10.png

Happy Remembrance Day from Canada

November 11, 2010 Update

Canadians had many contributions to World War II, we ran escort and supply ships to England. We supplied the troops for the fight and helped with the production of tanks, weapons and aircraft. We also ran “Camp X” at Oshawa, Ontario where we trained spies and secret agents. We ran the Commonwealth air training program where we trained pilots and aircrew from other Commonwealth countries. On D-Day, June 6, 1944, Juno was a Normandy landing when our Canadian force penetrated farther into France than any other Allied force.

By the end of the World War II, Canada had the world’s fourth largest air force and the third largest navy. I am so proud to be a Canadian and very grateful to all the Canadians served in the militaries.

A brief update on Leah, and then I am off to bed. The EURUSD continues on its descend from the high of 1.4284 on November 4 to the current price of 1.3618 on November 11. This is a drop of more than 600 pips over seven days. So far, Leah trading system has been taking it in stride. Currently, it has two open EURUSD sell trades with +143 pips of floating profit. Our balance is $15,287 and our equity is $15,431 (54% ROI in six months), see attached chart.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal.../LeahNov11.png

The Truth about Forex Addiction

November 12, 2010 Update

Many of you have asked about the details behind my trading systems and how they are able to predict the market trend? The truth is it is impossible to predict any market events. Many have tried with oscillators, indicators, neural networks and, etc. and they all have failed. However, most traders continue to search for the Holy Grail through forums, chat rooms, automated trading robots, seminars, and, etc. I know as I have read many books, wasted lots of time studying indicators and trading systems, bought the greatest neural network system, and, etc.

Nothing seems to help until I understood the concept of probabilities in trading. Once I mastered the trading probabilities, I though would be a millionaire within a year. WRONG. There were still the money management and psychology which are even harder to master. All of us have been seduced by the promise of easy money, to be your own boss, to open a forex account for as little as $250 and, etc. Once, we get started in trading, it is like a gambling addiction. We lie to ourselves that it is possible to make lots of money through trading. We have to believe and that we can’t afford to doubt. We had gone too far, and we had invested too much time and money in our trading experience. There isn’t any other truth and the reality of no Holy Grail is just too much to bear. Hence, most traders are determined not to give up and no other truth is tolerable.

IF IT SOUNDS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE, IT PROBABLY IS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE.

November 2010 Performance Report for Winsor’s Five Automated Trading Systems

November 15, 2010 Update

Below are the trading results of my five expert advisors since May 21, 2010 (6 months).

Haley = +576 pips (5.8%) with 377 trades trading GBPUSD
Jasmine = +7,012 pips (70.1%) with 553 trades trading EURUSD
Leah = +4,862 pips (48.6%) with 499 trades trading EURUSD
Mellisa = -1,932 pips (-19.3%) with 410 trades trading USDCHF
Sienna = -1,169 pips (-11.7%) with 719 trades trading EURUSD

If you haven’t downloaded my software, below is the link again. The installation takes 30 seconds. Feel free to forward the software to a friend.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...EX_dot_COM.zip
1) Download the zip file onto your desktop
2) Unzip the file and follow the README text file.

How Quantitative Easing in the US Affects the Shanghai Stock Exchange

November 17, 2010 Update

The US Federal Reserve’s second round of quantitative easing (QE) has been causing some problems for China. On November 3, The Federal Reserve announced that it would purchase of $600 billion in Treasuries to keep interest rates low and boost economic growth. Keeping liquidity in the US economy is essential while it avoids another economic spiral. With quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve is attempting to weaken the dollar. This will make US goods more competitive vs. China and the rest of the world.

In order to maintain a competitive exchange with the US dollar, China would buy more US dollars and sell more yuan. In selling more yuan, China risks inflation, and also creates asset bubbles in property and stocks. How do you curve inflation? You raise the interest rate! That is exactly that China did, and it also threatens further hikes. Guess what happened to the Shanghai stock exchange when China raises its interest rate?

Low interest rates are good for business because they make it cheaper to borrow funds to invest in new projects. Consumers borrow more money as debt finance is more attractive. When you raise interest rates, the cost of borrowing is higher. Corporate earnings are lower because more of the profit goes toward paying off the accumulated interests. A lower corporate profit means a lower stock share price. As interest rates go up, investors can get higher rate of return from the bank deposits and government bonds without taking risks. As investors move money out of the stock market into bank deposits and government bonds, the stock price will go down even further. Now you understand why the Shanghai stock exchange has fallen on the fears of more interest rate raises.

On November 4, 2010 the EURUSD was as high as 1.4284. Today it is at 1.3543, a drop of 741 pips in two weeks. Can it go any lower? Yes, it can. If you are in EURUSD buy trades like Leah, remember to enter in your stop loss. Currently, Leah has 3 EURUSD buy trades with a maximum stop loss of 100 pips, see attached chart. Similar to playing chess, you must be two steps ahead of your opponent to defeat him. The first step is entering your stop loss, and the second step is entering your take profit. Now you just sit back and see how the market reacts.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal.../LeahNov17.png

How to Reduce Your Daily Stress and to Increase Your Energy Level

November 18, 2010 Update

A quick update on Jasmine auto trading system, then I am off onto the elliptical trainer. It is important to get lots of exercise when you are trading. Here are some ideas for reducing stress and increasing your energy level.

1) Get a pet: a dog or a cat.
2) Enjoy a walk around the neighborhood.
3) Get a massage (my favorite).
4) Read a novel not another book about trading.
5) Play tennis, softball, volleyball and, etc.
6) Eat more greens and drink lots of water.
7) Practice deep breathing.
8) Go to a local coffee shop and get some social interaction.
9) Learn about transcendental meditation.
10) Understand that trading is extremely challenging, and it will take more than five years to master it.

Jasmine seems to have done no wrongs for the last six months. Its equity has gone up and up. Currently, its balance is at $17,146, and its equity is at $17,302 (70.3% ROI for the last six months). See attached chart. Remember that Jasmine's performance may not be replicated for 2011.

http://www.ctsforex.com/trial_instal...smineNov18.png