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My 30 pips Daily and my 45% Weekly Journal

  • #161
  • Edited 4:46am Nov 9, 2010 4:29am | Edited 4:46am
I have lost another trade. I must admit, I didn't see that coming. I think someone warned me of such an occurrence earlier. I accept full responsibility for the losses.

So, i've now lost over 120 pips in less than 2 days. This is no simple loss given that I compounded my volume at the start of the week to 6.3 standard lots.

Trade 2 for Nov 09, 2010

Long Entry @ 1.39107
SL @ 1.382 (87.7 pips)
TP @ 1.41107 (200 pips)
Exit strategy: If price closes below the previous support at 1.384

Whoa, what a start to this week!!!??? But im pretty pretty confident about my open position (dont quote me)
  • #162
  • Edited Nov 10, 2010 3:29am Nov 9, 2010 4:59am | Edited Nov 10, 2010 3:29am
Quoting Tuner
Hey there,
Been following you on here for a while now... at First Congrats on that last 4 weeks. That was an amazing performance.
This week now, as you also described had a bad start for you.
(Happy belated birthday by the way!)
A lot of range without clear direction the most time of the day IMO.
Though to trade that!
You did your analysis of what went wrong already. Your short trade No1 would have hit the TP. So as you said. Stick to the plan!
Same for your current short trade now. You are aiming for 155 (or 100) pips . But only because this would...
All good comments Tuner. No doubt Machi will get a bunch of I told you so's now, I am not one of them.

Machi, I couldn't even begin to do what you are attempting to do here by calling trades live in a journal. It is just additional unnecessary stress.

I think you are realising that to base a target on what you "want" to get as opposed to what the market will "give" you is not right.

Just wait for the A+ setups to come to you and base your targets on your SR levels.

I believe you have the makings of a great trader, keep it up mate.
  • #163
  • Nov 9, 2010 5:00am Nov 9, 2010 5:00am
Quoting jag1966
All good comments Turner. No doubt Machi will get a bunch of I told you so's now, I am not one of them.

Machi, I couldn't even begin to do what you are attempting to do here by calling trades live in a journal. It is just additional uNnecessary stress.

I think you are realising that to base a target on what you "want" to get as opposed to what the market will "give" you is not right.

Just wait for the A+ setups to come to you and base your targets on your SR levels.

I believe you have the makings of a great trader, keep it up mate.
Thanks.
  • #164
  • Nov 9, 2010 5:16am Nov 9, 2010 5:16am
My question to you is this. Why have you still got 6+ lots being traded when you account is now back to an amount that was being traded with 4 lots. Also the increased profit target is now making you blind to your method. You are in a sense looking to take revenge on the market by keeping a larger lot size than the account recommends, which will compound the problem greatly and it will effect you, have no doubt, it will affect your approach because you are now looking to make back your losses instread of your initial goals.

If this trade doesnt pay off and you take another loss you will effectively wasted 2 weeks of time and effort just to try to prove a point. This is why I dont bother with the constant updating of my journal. While I dont care what others think it is just another form of pressure that we sometimes feel we need to validate ourselves to faceless people.

If I was you I would scrap this week and take sometime to collect and re-assess my approach. I would say that this was a possibility (a few losses stacked up) but that is only because I have seen it time and time again over the course of 5 years.

Take a step back, make sure you follow your game plan because without the discipline to do so you will find yourself in this revenge, need to make back my losses mindframe again.

Best of luck

RT
  • #165
  • Nov 9, 2010 6:06am Nov 9, 2010 6:06am
A losing streak of three trades is not a lot and most people see that kind of losing week in week out. For me, it looks and is a big deal because of the leverage used. In light of this current run, I have encountered some big questios and I think they deserve answers.

1. A trading journal and calling live trades.

The stress is definitely there and at times it feels like Im trying to prove a point. But in essence, that is not my objective. I do not have a paper journal and all my trades and comments are posted here. I want to record trades as i take them, why I am taking them, comments, exit strategy so that I am 100% sure what I am doing. That is the reason I will post to the last trade here. So that even if I have to fund another account, i'll know all the trades that led to the loss.

That said, I don't think its very smart to wait until I lose my account to learn a lesson. I will be listing what i think is going wrong, going back to my trading system and making necessary modifications. As I have stated in this journal about my system,

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=261466

the objectives are:

"My objectives are very clear:

 1. To gain the discipline to follow the system
2. To keep on modifying the system so as to make it better
3. To make 30 pips on a daily basis
4. To make 150 pips on a weekly basis.
5. To make 45% of my account every week"

Rule 1, to follow the system. That one I am attempting to do. Rule 2, to modify to make it better.

Right now, i can only follow the system as it is. I will look to modify it and then follow the new modifications.

2. Goal Objectives

Quoting jag1966
I think you are realising that to base a target on what you "want" to get as opposed to what the market will "give" you is not right.
I think this comment warrants some thinking into. My system needs to realize that it's upto the market to do the giving. The modification i think, which would resolve this issue is locking in of profits when Im in the positive. Two of the three losing trades hit at least 25 pips. I will be looking to work out a way to move my Sl to breakeven.

3. ALWAYS reaching my Targets

The question here is, 'do I have to hit my TP everyday or will i sometimes end up with a 20 pips profit or sometimes even a losing day?'

The answer lies in the rules of the system. The system is meant to keep you in the markets until you make a cummulative of +30 pips everyday or at least +150 pips for the week.

The solution lies in a revision of the system rules to accomodate losing days.

4. Using the same lot size after a loss

This is one area Ive thought into for quite sometime now. If I was winning and not changing the lot size to accomodate the recent profits, would I be asking myself whether Im not taking advantage of my equity curve?

Now that Im losing, should I be asking myself whether Im taking too much of a risk? In designing my system, i decided to use a standard lot size for the whole week regardless of wins and losses and their distribution. in designing that, my system had not had three consequtive losses like it has done. Its only when you live trade that the unexpected happens, like a 36% drawdown in a day!

Solution; I will be looking into it and setting a less risky strategy.

4. Revenge Trading

This is a rule in the system. It is something that is meant to go hand in hand with question 3 above. I came up with this rule based on statistics. In my four months of testing I did not have two consequtive losers and so the second trade after a loss always made back my loss and the intended targets. This three trades have put me in unfamiliar territory and I am looking to jump back and modify the system in case this happens again.

5. Modifying my system

This system has worked for me in the last five months. The reason many people have failed, my past included, is in not trusting their systems or making adjustments when they lose. I will make modifications, but only those that are legit and called for.

I need to stick with the system during losing times just as i stick with it during winning times.

I will be making slight but necesary adjustments to the system and revising the original edition.

P.S: I need to withdraw more regularly.
P.S 2: if you can rate this thread please do so, not necessarily based on my performance but moreso on the quality of debate going on here. I'll appreciate.
  • #166
  • Nov 9, 2010 8:32am Nov 9, 2010 8:32am
Quoting Slack
Ian, Can you just block out your acct number but leave the section that shows this is live?

Btw, Happy B-Day!

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...02009%207:53am
Hi slack
How do you block your account the way you have done if i want to post my live account?. I could like to know please. Thank you.
  • #167
  • Nov 9, 2010 12:47pm Nov 9, 2010 12:47pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting Machiavelli7
A losing streak of three trades is not a lot and most people see that kind of losing week in week out. For me, it looks and is a big deal because of the leverage used. In light of this current run, I have encountered some big questios and I think they deserve answers.

1. A trading journal and calling live trades.

The stress is definitely there and at times it feels like Im trying to prove a point. But in essence, that is not my objective. I do not have a paper journal and all my trades and comments are posted here. I want to record...
Hey there,
Again a pretty good analysis of "what went wrong" and what you need to do now. (Shows that you take that that business serious and got what it takes become successful in the end)

some thoughts to the points you mentioned.

to --> 2. Goal Objectives
Locking in some profits is always a good opportunity. I trade longer timeframes but always lock in some profits at a certain profit.
The bis question (and hard to tell on any timeframe) At what point are you doing it. SL to BE is one thing you could do. In addition to that you might also consider to cash in a part of your position as well if price stalls at a resistance/support before hitting your TP. You would still have some profits on such a trade the.

to --> 3. ALWAYS reaching my Targets / 4. Revenge Trading
I think I commented on that before. I understood your rule for the second trade after a loss to make up for the Loss+ getting your profit for the day. you described this from a technical perspective http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...4&postcount=57
Problem comes with the third trade after 2 losses now that "needs" to make up for 2 losses.
At this point you are out of your original system / game-plan IMO. It is a completely different kind of trade then concerning timeframe and setup. And the only reason to trigger that trade are the 2 previous losses and not necessairily a buy/sell-signal.
As you said you never had 2 consecutive losses during your testing period. So maybe there should be a "hard stop" after 2 losses.
In order to get back to the original set-up and look for the next "trade1" = 30pips.
(sure this day/week will then probably not reach your pip-target)

to --> 5. Modifying my system
I totally agree on your points.
"Never change a winning team" If it worked out for you during the last 5 months, stick to it. Adjustments concerning "locking in profits" and "handling of 2 consecutive losses" should be considered.

In order to get back on track...
Hope you got out of your last long-trade when it was still in nice profit and didn't run into SL with that one now.?!
All the best!

-Tuner-
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #168
  • Nov 9, 2010 1:28pm Nov 9, 2010 1:28pm
Quoting Edonya
Hi slack
How do you block your account the way you have done if i want to post my live account?. I could like to know please. Thank you.
After you take your screenshot, open the image in MS Paint for editing.
  • #169
  • Nov 9, 2010 2:27pm Nov 9, 2010 2:27pm
Quoting Slack
After you take your screenshot, open the image in MS Paint for editing.
thanks a lot.
  • #170
  • Nov 9, 2010 2:46pm Nov 9, 2010 2:46pm
I went out of the house to get some free air. Im back and i've hit loss number 4. Its unbelievable. Its like Im back to square 1. Actually its worse on my other account.

So, here are the modification,

1. I am yet to decide whether to aim for a set % per day or to just ride the markets. Once I make up my mind, I will update as appropriate. Any input will be appreciated.

2. I will only enter when these two signals are triggered; stochastics crosses 50 and price crosses BB MA.

3. Lot size will be calculated for each position before entry..

4. I will stop posting my real account figures. Only percentages.

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/mana...iavelli7/59406
  • #171
  • Nov 9, 2010 2:54pm Nov 9, 2010 2:54pm
You need to reassess your analysis my bro if you followed them top the letter and still lost then that is part of your trading plan. Today the market was chaotic but i managed to catch the GBPUSD and got good pips from it. Even EU but on the Alpari contest.
Wish you all the best in this business.

NB: Dont stop posting your real status of your account coz from it one can positively critisize and also by doing that i.e. posting the percentages then you are going back to squire one.
Also combine that good strategy with price action and see how successful you will be consistently.
Regards
  • #172
  • Nov 9, 2010 4:22pm Nov 9, 2010 4:22pm
I have modified my system

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...24&postcount=1

I have realized two things.

1, Its not about today, its about the long term
2. Revenge trading will kill me
3. Compond interset will work for and against you.

Comments accepted.

Edonya, thank you for four input. I have looke at all my trades and I must say they look a bit odd. The market was in an obvious downtrend, except for loss 4, and i should have only taken shorts. Anyway, I hope the modifications can help reduce the drawdown.

My next trade will be a new start. Lets see if we can get the equity curve growing again.
  • #173
  • Nov 9, 2010 6:39pm Nov 9, 2010 6:39pm
Quoting Machiavelli7
4. Revenge Trading

This is a rule in the system. It is something that is meant to go hand in hand with question 3 above. I came up with this rule based on statistics. In my four months of testing I did not have two consequtive losers and so the second trade after a loss always made back my loss and the intended targets. This three trades have put me in unfamiliar territory and I am looking to jump back and modify the system in case this happens again.

Here is one of your biggest problems and I know and understand perhaps why you didnt do it over a longer period. It is your testing period.

4 months is not anywhere near close enough to test a methodology for precise entry and exit criteria along with high risk MM to have an edge in trading. During this testing period you most likely faced a strong trending environment which held favourable results for your approach. And it shows with the now 4 consecutive losses during a somewhat sideways market. This is a big reason for why you have hit this little 'unexpected' hurdle because for the first time your criteria for trading doesnt have any allowance for an untested period therefore your struggling to walk away.

It must be the market, it must be, its just not behaving right according to my methodology is something I have also read and heard alot over time and it usually comes from those with short time frame testing which some believe is enough for an edge. Now I can understand why you havent tested longer and that is because you trade off the 30 min timeframe so to test something manually that would take along time. I have tested methods on daily charts over 15 years and those test took up to 3-6 months (part time) and sometimes they come back without any tradable edge.

'I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.
Thomas A. Edison' would sum up my thoughts over those testing periods.

In order to find out whether your approach has an edge, whether there is any true longevity in it, the tests need to survive booms, busts and lulls with the ability to have manageable drawdown (unlike the type you are having now) and reach new equity highs. On a side note though, deep drawdowns usually result in much higher equity swings however it is a tightrope you walk, a fine line between busting out and scrapping through to soar to new equity highs.

Consider the fact that you have already lost a great deal of investment, the answer does not lay in reverse Risk Reward coupled with high risk. Your approach would probably be better with better structure risk and money with the outlook to place a higher % on trades that really set up well. This approach will give you more time to learn without throwing out another account whilst helping to build towards a future that will hopefully have a sustainable edge. Trading risky works well, when it works, as you have found but is it going to get you to the end. Improbable as trading is there are very few people who are wealthy through extrodinary gains over short periods of time.

For what it is worth I would rather have something that over the period of 10 years tested and 5-10 years traded gives me an edge and confidence that I could happily invest alot of money into. I would feel more confident trading in excess of 100k with such a situation then building 10k to 100k in 6 months with a risky approach. While the end result for the latter may well and truly overcome the gains of the sensible approach the flip side is the drawdown would more than likely destroy any confidence that I would have gain over that period. The earlier situation will encounter drawdown at some stage but not anywhere near the % represented in the latter.

Take care friend. What you do from here will help define your future. You are only 22 which gives you a time edge over alot of people coupled with technology which you are more than likely in tune with will help you along the way.

RT


'
  • #174
  • Nov 11, 2010 4:59am Nov 11, 2010 4:59am
Quoting Machiavelli7
I have lost another trade. I must admit, I didn't see that coming. I think someone warned me of such an occurrence earlier. I accept full responsibility for the losses.

So, i've now lost over 120 pips in less than 2 days. This is no simple loss given that I compounded my volume at the start of the week to 6.3 standard lots.

Trade 2 for Nov 09, 2010

Long Entry @ 1.39107
SL @ 1.382 (87.7 pips)
TP @ 1.41107 (200 pips)
Exit strategy: If price closes below the previous support...
Machievelli , what the f@#$ are you doing ????your system sounds like it is a daily scalping system with a target of 30 pips a day 20>30 pips are a piece of p!@s, if you try to rationalize a trade that lasts days to weeks you should not be talking about 30 pips a day because the averaging, guageing from where you are at expereince wise will do your head in !!
You want 30 pips a day and in this instance you are talking about a stop loss of nearly 3 times your daily target?????
Give yourself a slap!!!
Reasonable daily pip targets and building to sensible numbers of contracts will give you a very nice income and POSSIBLY !!!
make you rich
NON BASTARDUS CARBORUNDOM BM
  • #175
  • Edited 1:39pm Nov 11, 2010 8:49am | Edited 1:39pm
A very bad week. Its not the worst by a far shot but its definitely one I will want to forget quickly except for the lessons.

BearMan I hear you and you have a point.

I am currently working on incorporating those lessons into my system.

Look at the system progress so far here:

My Templates
  • #176
  • Nov 11, 2010 12:29pm Nov 11, 2010 12:29pm
Nice to see you get back on the horse

The is very important. You, IMHO, just made the same mistake most of have, ad more indicators to cover another, entirely different problem. Here's the problem, I doubt the prior indicator(s) were proven to have a statistical edge. Now you have added more unproven indicators and expect the odds of winning to be greater?

Questions to ponder:

  1. How do you determine which indicator(s) to use?
  2. How do you judge their effectiveness/usefulness?
  3. When they fail, why do they fail... do you have an understanding of this?
  4. Exactly how will they help your bottom line ($$)?

  • #177
  • Nov 14, 2010 2:06pm Nov 14, 2010 2:06pm
I took the weekend to analyze my trading week and I have come back refreshed and ready to trade for another week. All my trades will be tweeted live by MyFXbook and Currensee so you can follow them.

I have come to one final analysis. My system has an edge and I know it has. The moment I start doubting it and adding Indicators, I have lost my way!
Quoting slack
You, IMHO, just made the same mistake most of have, ad more indicators to cover another, entirely different problem
I do not agree with you however that my system lacks an edge. One week's loss will not deter me from my chosen course of trading
Quoting Razor_Trader
Here is one of your biggest problems and I know and understand perhaps why you didnt do it over a longer period. It is your testing period.

4 months is not anywhere near close enough to test a methodology for precise entry and exit criteria along with high risk MM to have an edge in trading. During this testing period you most likely faced a strong trending environment which held favourable results for your approach. And it shows with the now 4 consecutive losses during a somewhat sideways market. This is a big reason for why you have hit this little 'unexpected' hurdle because for the first time your criteria for tradi...
I will continue to make trades based on my trigger signal as outlined in my system. I will however consider Tuner's advice
Quoting Tuner
"Never change a winning team" If it worked out for you during the last 5 months, stick to it. Adjustments concerning "locking in profits" and "handling of 2 consecutive losses" should be considered.
After a loss, I will put my TP at 30 pips + previous loss with a Trailing stop at 30 pips.

Quoting Tuner
Problem comes with the third trade after 2 losses now that "needs" to make up for 2 losses.
At this point you are out of your original system / game-plan IMO. It is a completely different kind of trade then concerning timeframe and setup. And the only reason to trigger that trade are the 2 previous losses and not necessairily a buy/sell-signal.
As you said you never had 2 consecutive losses during your testing period. So maybe there should be a "hard stop" after 2 losses.
In order to get back to the original set-up and look for the next "trade1" = 30pips.
(sure this day/week will then probably not reach your pip-target)
.
After two consecutive losses, I will quit and call it a day and start the following day with trade one TP at 30 pips. (Thanks Tuner for your input).
Quoting slack
Questions to ponder:
How do you determine which indicator(s) to use?
How do you judge their effectiveness/usefulness?
When they fail, why do they fail... do you have an understanding of this?
Exactly how will they help your bottom line ($$)?
These questions will no longer exist as I have decided to stick to my original plan.

Quoting Bearman52
Machievelli , what the f@#$ are you doing ????your system sounds like it is a daily scalping system with a target of 30 pips a day 20>30 pips are a piece of p!@s, if you try to rationalize a trade that lasts days to weeks you should not be talking about 30 pips a day because the averaging, guageing from where you are at expereince wise will do your head in !!
You want 30 pips a day and in this instance you are talking about a stop loss of nearly 3 times your daily target?????
Give yourself a slap!!!
Reasonable daily pip targets and building to sensible numbers of contracts will give you a very nice income and POSSIBLY !!!
make you rich
I literally slapped myself from my trading slumber and I hope Im totally awake now to get back to trading. Hope your recommendation works!!
  • #178
  • Nov 14, 2010 2:15pm Nov 14, 2010 2:15pm
Quoting Machiavelli7
After a loss, I will put my TP at 30 pips + previous loss with a Trailing stop at 30 pips.
Hi Machi,

adding a previous loss to the next trade makes no sense to me at all, each trade should be unique from a previous trade IMHO.

There are exceptions of course.

Good luck.
  • #179
  • Nov 14, 2010 2:18pm Nov 14, 2010 2:18pm
Quoting jag1966
Hi Machi,

adding a previous loss to the next trade makes no sense to me at all, each trade should be unique from a previous trade IMHO.

There are exceptions of course.

Good luck.
I agree with you (but remember trade two in this context is a stop and reverse) and I hope to see how this turns out in the short term. Remember it took me sometime to come up with this system. I don't want to dismantle it all at once.
  • #180
  • Nov 14, 2010 2:27pm Nov 14, 2010 2:27pm
Ok Machi, one last point and please don't think I am picking holes in your strategy.

You seem to be basing your entries on solid SR analysis but your targets on the need for a certain number of pips.

If you have to make up for a lost trade by adding the loss to the next trade and the next SR is well short of your required pips the trade / target is not sensible.

Take what the market gives, not what you need.

If I am missing something I apologise.
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