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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #20,161
  • Nov 8, 2010 2:59am Nov 8, 2010 2:59am
Want to add som more info about the math behind that experiment.

According to margin requirements (leverage 1:200) I can trade round
about 2.4 lots on EURUSD, a little less on Cable (2.1 lots only) and 3.4 lots with USDJPY. All in all between 21 and 34 men troops.

Asuming to trade only that pair of the three kingdoms, that shows the easiest to read PA/Trend/momentum, I can survive the following scenario (based on EURUSD):

  1. 1 Scout max. -698 pips
  2. Move 10 pips against scout, now deploying
    Rescue L1 (1Scout +3men Rescue) ~ -150pips
  3. Move 25 pips against Scout + rescue L1, now deploying
    Rescue L2 (1Scout +3men Rescue +8men Rescue) ~ -50 pips

From my point of view, that seems to be a reasonable sizing.
(Hope I have done any mistakes in my calculations ...)

I'm very curious, how this will turn out.

BTW: For this morning my bias is short. But using Rangebased MO on EU yet ...

  • #20,162
  • Nov 8, 2010 3:06am Nov 8, 2010 3:06am
My blotter so far ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,163
  • Nov 8, 2010 3:13am Nov 8, 2010 3:13am
And that is the range I'm talking about (EURUSD M5).
Awaiting a break to the south ...


.
Attached Image
  • #20,164
  • Nov 8, 2010 3:17am Nov 8, 2010 3:17am
Oh no - have to finish for the Moment.
There are some Handcrafters there, that I have not expected for this morning...

Fianally did an attack on the break (0.1, 0.3, 0.5 lots).
But see your self ...


.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-11-08_LondonSessionBlotter02.jpg Size: 100 KB
  • #20,165
  • Nov 8, 2010 3:31am Nov 8, 2010 3:31am
Hi again,

back for now.
Have lost my strong focus after that short interrupt.
So I'm going to open a live session right now - maybe someone wants to discuss something .... Feel free to join in!

http://www.netviewer.com/en/joinsession/
Session ID: 309694964

(have to shut it down again in around 60 minutes from now. Preparing family lunch then ....)

CU,
MaMood
  • #20,166
  • Nov 8, 2010 5:41am Nov 8, 2010 5:41am
@ MaMood:
Could you, please, share where you get your Dow, Dax, Gold and Oil charts from?

Thank you!

EDIT: I'm looking for a source where I could get them all in one place (I have only one 15,6'' monitor) .
EDIT: Suggestions from other members are welcome, too.
  • #20,167
  • Nov 8, 2010 6:04am Nov 8, 2010 6:04am
Quoting MaMood
Hi again,

back for now.
Have lost my strong focus after that short interrupt.
So I'm going to open a live session right now - maybe someone wants to discuss something .... Feel free to join in!

http://www.netviewer.com/en/joinsession/
Session ID: 309694964

(have to shut it down again in around 60 minutes from now. Preparing family lunch then ....)

CU,
MaMood
Hi MaMood
I tried to join, look at you art (I'm curious) ... only with my simulation account but I can not connect "netviewer".
I am currently repeating threads, (actually allways, as you've written before, I am as a chronicler ) and it seems to me, that my notes from this thread ... someone something added in
an excerpt from thread ... you remeber?:
"As combination of spiral 1,1,3 would be a better combination as your attck would be stronger. howerever 112 gives you the 1123 range of capabilities.
when attack is over, the winding down should leave normally only base.
ie scout. On second wave when you do a 113 again, the effective is actually on 2 base as one was left over, 2,1,3 then on wave 3 the base becomes as large as the attack, effectively 3,1,3 as 2 was left over. if the short term trend ride was succesful the base should be winded to the original of 1.
You can work in multiples of the base as per capitalisation.
I found this most effective ..."

Rgs
  • #20,168
  • Nov 8, 2010 6:18am Nov 8, 2010 6:18am
Quoting Mr.Bear
Could you, please, share where you get your Dow, Dax, Gold and Oil charts from?...
im not sure if Mig MT4 has them now, but most likely those charts were from Broco MT4.

depending on your wants/needs, check out Broco, FXPro MT4.
  • #20,169
  • Nov 8, 2010 6:29am Nov 8, 2010 6:29am
Quoting Mr.Bear
@ MaMood:
Could you, please, share where you get your Dow, Dax, Gold and Oil charts from?

Thank you!

EDIT: I'm looking for a source where I could get them all in one place (I have only one 15,6'' monitor) .
EDIT: Suggestions from other members are welcome, too.
Hi Bear,

as supremechaos has pointed out, I have a demo account with Broco. They have all the charts you are dreaming of. When using it please use the symbols with the suffix _CONT:
Gold: GC_CONT
DOW: YM_CONT
USDidx: DX_CONT
Crude oil: QM_CONT
Nikkei: NI_M_CONT
Silver: SI_CONT

Regards,
MaMood
  • #20,170
  • Nov 8, 2010 6:31am Nov 8, 2010 6:31am
Quoting Gro
Hi MaMood
I tried to join, look at you art (I'm curious) ... only with my simulation account but I can not connect "netviewer".
[...]

Rgs
Hi Gro,

do you know a more detailed Error message, why you cant't join in?
You have used the link I have given above?
and the correct session number?

Maybe you can give me some more details, so that I can figure out, what the problem might be ...

Regards ,
Niels
  • #20,171
  • Nov 8, 2010 6:32am Nov 8, 2010 6:32am
Quoting Mr.Bear
@ MaMood:
Could you, please, share where you get your Dow, Dax, Gold and Oil charts from?

Thank you!

EDIT: I'm looking for a source where I could get them all in one place (I have only one 15,6'' monitor) .
EDIT: Suggestions from other members are welcome, too.
Hi Mr.Bear
I'll try to answer, try to find the answer in the thread:
"In simple language, I Think some traders may be thinking from too many perspectives that they are paralysed from prudent action and reaction to market flow.
(too much analysis, not enough strategic following).
( too much comfirmation required before action or corrective action.)
( too much intelligence, lack of confidence)
This could be reasons why some cannot dance.
When this was my frame of mind this morning session, I COULDN'T DANCE!!.
Which was the reason I cut loose the session abruptly.
As I reset my thoughts from booked exposure, The rhythm returned."

PS Basic is understanding of the relationship 3Kgd!
I sometimes use + Oil and Gold but not as a decision-making process,similar as:
"Alternatively , you can use the 12 sma on the 5 min charts as guide. But be mindful that you do not use it as a trigger for trades."

"dance with the flow, everyone talks about banks ,oil,gold, etc. but the true teller of the story is price action. Watch the dance!"

Rgs
  • #20,172
  • Nov 8, 2010 6:35am Nov 8, 2010 6:35am
Quoting MaMood
Hi Gro,

do you know a more detailed Error message, why you cant't join in?
You have used the link I have given above?
and the correct session number?

Maybe you can give me some more details, so that I can figure out, what the problem might be ...

Regards ,
Niels
I entered the number that you stated above and my nick "gro"

notice:"Wrong session number or the session has not yet started."
  • #20,173
  • Nov 8, 2010 6:38am Nov 8, 2010 6:38am
Quoting Gro
Hi MaMood
[...]
I am currently repeating threads, (actually allways, as you've written before, I am as a chronicler ) and it seems to me, that my notes from this thread ... someone something added in
an excerpt from thread ... you remeber?:
"As combination of spiral 1,1,3 would be a better combination as your attck would be stronger. howerever 112 gives you the 1123 range of capabilities.
when attack is over, the winding down should leave normally only base.
ie scout. On second wave when you...
Thanx for the reminder Gro.

Of course I do remember - and addition or as supplement of course the long lasting "spirals within spirals" diucussions ...

Regards,
Niels
  • #20,174
  • Nov 8, 2010 6:41am Nov 8, 2010 6:41am
Quoting Gro
I entered the number that you stated above and my nick "gro"

notice:"Wrong session number or the session has not yet started."
Aah ok - may be the session was closed already again.
It was lasting an hour only, because I had to prepare family lunch.
Could it be that you have been late a litlle?
;-)
But there will be other chances to join in again.
Not 100% sure yet, but I try to make another one tomorrow morning ...

Niels
  • #20,175
  • Nov 8, 2010 6:42am Nov 8, 2010 6:42am
Quoting MaMood
Thanx for the reminder Gro.

Of course I do remember - and addition or as supplement of course the long lasting "spirals within spirals" diucussions ...

Regards,
Niels
"spirals within spirals" similar to the learning process
  • #20,176
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:08am Nov 8, 2010 7:08am
Just for info:

Trichet has made some statements just right now ....

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #20,177
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:25am Nov 8, 2010 7:25am
Thanks for info on other charts (Oil, gold, etc.....)
@ Gro:
I understand what you mean, my intention with this is to try it for guidance and see if it helps in any way. I'm still on demo, so why not? But still thanks for your input!
EDIT: So far watching this info has helped me with the sentiment thing (the bigger picture one).
  • #20,178
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:42am Nov 8, 2010 7:42am
Quoting Mr.Bear
Thanks for info on other charts (Oil, gold, etc.....)
@ Gro:
I understand what you mean, my intention with this is to try it for guidance and see if it helps in any way. I'm still on demo, so why not? But still thanks for your input!
EDIT: So far watching this info has helped me with the sentiment thing (the bigger picture one).
What you will learn the demo, your subconscious not forget!You trained hard to be a demo, you then not be surprised out of your mind.
  • #20,179
  • Nov 8, 2010 12:08pm Nov 8, 2010 12:08pm
Herd instinct.

http://www.picvi.com/2010/11/08/human-herd-instinct/
  • #20,180
  • Nov 8, 2010 1:29pm Nov 8, 2010 1:29pm
Hi again friends,

seems my expectations have become true: A ranging day in all 3 kgds.
Hope you have made good pips.

Because markets are ranging most of the time (~70%) it is worth to spent some time to train a range trading MO. Fti has made several statements about his way of range trading. And he also mentioned that it is the market where you can make really good money in.

Wish you a great night/evening/morning whre ever you are :-)

CU around London opening again.

MaMood
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