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Trading Supply & Demand Zones

  • #261
  • Nov 4, 2010 11:52pm Nov 4, 2010 11:52pm
Here's /6e. I like futures for volume greater than 1h. I've only marked the closer of the two major supply levels on the chart that we're approaching.
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  • #262
  • Edited 5:06am Nov 5, 2010 3:21am | Edited 5:06am
Quoting ninohoang
It looks to me that the Demand for USD is coming back soon
It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few days. With the dollar reaching daily and weekly demand areas and GU (already within the weekly zone) and EU reaching for Daily and Weekly supply. Lower time frame confirmation at higher time frame demand/supply levels is the best way to go for now I think. But there are always other pairs. Just took a long off eurchf 4 hour demand level. Lets see how she plays out. Will add to longs on the way up to first target 1.3725 area.

Did anyone take the perfect set up off gbpchf to the downside on the 1st? Great risk:reward on that one.

Frank: What charts/data feed you using for futures?

Good to see you here seattlerust

Edit: Out for BE on the eurchf trade. Will see how it reacts to the 4 hour trendline. Probably not the best setup given that the origin of the move had a fast exit out of the area but then dribbled up showing lack of follow through by pro's.
  • #263
  • Nov 5, 2010 8:40am Nov 5, 2010 8:40am
Here's a 1h and a 15m of EG.

The 1h shows a demand level, and the 15m shows buying followed by a successful test
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  • #264
  • Nov 5, 2010 8:42am Nov 5, 2010 8:42am
Quoting Porkpie
What charts/data feed you using for futures?
ThinkOrSwim. Pretty everyone I know hates their platform, but I think once you get used to it, it's really great. My only complaint is that it runs slow on my cheap lap top.
  • #265
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:19am Nov 6, 2010 6:19am
Quoting frankkn
Here's a 1h and a 15m of EG.

The 1h shows a demand level, and the 15m shows buying followed by a successful test
Took this trade when price went deep into and left the level. Pretty nice bounce there. Hopefully the Demand is strong enough to carry the price upwards. Cheers
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  • #266
  • Edited Nov 8, 2010 5:54am Nov 7, 2010 2:36pm | Edited Nov 8, 2010 5:54am
Noticed you are using the wicks for your levels in some cases. There isn't a rule set in concrete for applying these zones but I just wondered if you had a particular reason for using the wicks and not also the meat of the candle?
  • #267
  • Nov 7, 2010 11:34pm Nov 7, 2010 11:34pm
Quoting frankkn
Here's my dollar chart
...in addition my weekly chart shows that last week was no supply...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #268
  • Nov 8, 2010 7:37am Nov 8, 2010 7:37am
Quoting Porkpie
Noticed you are using the wicks for your levels in some cases. There isn't a rule set in concrete for applying these zones but I just wondered if you had a particular reason for using the wicks and not also the meat of the candle?
Hi Porkpie,
Actually , I have never heard Sam talk about the wicks as Supply and Demand Level in his videos. I just saw he used the wicks a few times though. Are you referring to the tiny small body of the candles with long wicks?
To me, I just feel that the wicks which present the pivot highs or lows show the most imbalance of supply and demand because price gets there but is quickly rejected. That shows there are a lot of buyers and sells at that levels. Not all the wicks are good though. Only those wicks followed by the sharp decline and rally are good ones. I often only consider those wicks at the extreme of pivot highs and lows.
Again, this is just my personal understanding. I am not sure it's really the proper way to go about it. I think only XLT students get all the tricks from Sam for the levels.
After one month experiencing those levels, I certainly can say there are levels which are better than others. Even after taking into account the Odd Enhancers (posted from someone in this thread), sometimes. the levels only offer a small bounces instead of full reversal turning points. I escaped quite a few losses by bring the stops to break even quickly. However, i fell that this type of trading should be the way to go since the risk is small compared to the potential profits and sometimes we can really have very high probability zones.
I am trying my best to learn more about this. Feel like joining XLT very much but I can't afford the fees so posting around and learning from you folks here seems to be the only option for me now.
If i am not wrong, there is an XLT student here in this thread but haven't seen posts from him recently. Maybe the person can help clarify further. Cheers
  • #269
  • Nov 8, 2010 8:36am Nov 8, 2010 8:36am
Monthy chart: To me, this pair is sitting at the Supply (Sell) zone.
H1 chart: The gap down reveals the Supply (Sell) zone above the current price. I would be interested to Short when price gets up there.
Hope to have your comments. Cheers.
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  • #270
  • Edited 4:21pm Nov 8, 2010 2:23pm | Edited 4:21pm
Quoting ninohoang
Hi Porkpie,
Actually , I have never heard Sam talk about the wicks as Supply and Demand Level in his videos. I just saw he used the wicks a few times though. Are you referring to the tiny small body of the candles with long wicks?
To me, I just feel that the wicks which present the pivot highs or lows show the most imbalance of supply and demand because price gets there but is quickly rejected. That shows there are a lot of buyers and sells at that levels. Not all the wicks are good though. Only those wicks followed by the sharp decline and rally...
In SS's "Live Trading and Analysis" video, about 10 or 12 minutes in, he briefly talks about drawing the lines around the zone. In the case of supply he used the candle bodies and the upper wicks--but not the lower wicks. In the case of demand, I'd assume that we'd use the candle bodies and bottom wicks. I think by not using the bodies, you might miss a lot of entries. Often, in Seiden's videos, price barely reaches the candle bodies then turns without going all the way through them. Bear in mind I'm new at this approach also.
  • #271
  • Nov 8, 2010 3:02pm Nov 8, 2010 3:02pm
Quoting billflet
In SS's "Live Trading and Analysis" video, about 10 or 12 minutes in, he briefly talks about drawing the lines around the zone. In the case of supply he used the candle bodies and the upper wicks--but not the lower wicks. In the case of demand, I'd assume that we'd use the candle bodies and bottom wicks. I think by not using the bodies, you might miss a lot of entries. Often, in Seiden's videos, price barely reaches the candle bodies then turns before going all the way through them. Bear in mind I'm new at this approach also.
I like the hourly, daily, and weekly charts for drawing zones. This is for global continuity. I draw my zones like this as well.

Many times price will zoom towards my levels and just barely tap them before turning to race off in the other direction. This is why I use several limit orders. The deeper into the zone, the smaller the SL and the greater the TP. This makes that famous (after the fact) stat of average RR per trade more attractive, provided you've chosen levels that are quality (not in the middle of the curve, agree with larger TF, short time spent at levels)

Mima- yep the volume was down and less than (barely) the previous two. This kind of bar demonstrates professional money's lack of interest in lower prices. When this is seen at a demand level, and in the presence of strength in the back ground, a break of the high should be violent.
  • #272
  • Nov 9, 2010 4:24am Nov 9, 2010 4:24am
Quoting billflet
In SS's "Live Trading and Analysis" video, about 10 or 12 minutes in, he briefly talks about drawing the lines around the zone. In the case of supply he used the candle bodies and the upper wicks--but not the lower wicks. In the case of demand, I'd assume that we'd use the candle bodies and bottom wicks. I think by not using the bodies, you might miss a lot of entries. Often, in Seiden's videos, price barely reaches the candle bodies then turns without going all the way through them. Bear in mind I'm new at this approach also.
yes, agree with this and I like the idea of splitting trade within the zone also as Seiden has mentioned.

Took short on USDCAD at 1.0060 earlier. Currently within 1 hour demand watching for further momentum downwards stop at 26.
  • #273
  • Nov 9, 2010 11:35am Nov 9, 2010 11:35am
Here is a setup that I am looking at today. I have a downtrend on the daily chart and a rally against that trend on the 4 hour. There is a supply level .8760-.8775 level and connfluence with the 78% Fib retracement of the current swing. I find a high score with the XLT Odds Enhancers as well. If this retracement continues, I will place a limit order at .8768, with a stop at .8788 and a profit target at .8600. The entry levels were fine-tuned from the 1 hour and 15 minute charts. This will give a R/R ov over 8. I probably will take partial profits on the way down and reduce risk accordingly.

Comments and thoughts???

SR
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  • #274
  • Nov 9, 2010 1:12pm Nov 9, 2010 1:12pm
Quoting Porkpie
yes, agree with this and I like the idea of splitting trade within the zone also as Seiden has mentioned.

Took short on USDCAD at 1.0060 earlier. Currently within 1 hour demand watching for further momentum downwards stop at 26.
Nice analysis. I remember you saying that you found "cutting through candles" useful, not for entries, but for identifying prior supply and demand. Is that what you used to trail your stop?
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  • #275
  • Nov 9, 2010 2:55pm Nov 9, 2010 2:55pm
Hi Bill, yes I wanted to hide behind some supply (prior minor demand level), so I thought that would be the logical place. I then closed in as it reached the $1 target area. Surprised to see it shoot back up again from there. Dollar strength across the board it seems.

Seattle, I like your logic with the fibs your analysis looks solid.
  • #276
  • Edited Nov 20, 2010 2:45am Nov 19, 2010 4:18pm | Edited Nov 20, 2010 2:45am
Here are two trades I took this week which were both set and forget orders. I work of the day charts for my higher timeframe swing trading. I reached target 1 on both pairs so they are now free trades and bagged a small profit. It is all about planning your trades! I like working of the daily! Let's see what happens

GBPCHF:
I set this as a set and forget after it pulled back from the explosive entry into the supply zone. Took some heat and had 9 hours of basing to choose a better entry! Patience is key at these higher timeframes!

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GBPCAD:
I took this one on the pullback. I saw the high made on Thursday, put my sell order in the exact high of that day and got filled by two pips

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My rule is to keep my SL when 100+ pips in green. I will take away the SL at 50+ in case of stop hunting and check on Sunday opening to monitor trades I left open. Need good demand or supply zone for justification and anything less I will just take the profit. I will make judgement through my analysis.

Have a great weekend!
  • #277
  • Nov 19, 2010 6:19pm Nov 19, 2010 6:19pm
Quoting bbakker
Here are two trades I took this week which were both set and forget orders. I work of the day charts for my higher timeframe swing trading. I reached target 1 on both pairs so they are now free trades and bagged a small profit. It is all about planning your trades! I like working of the daily! Let's see what happens

GBPCHF:
I set this as a set and forget after it pulled back from the explosive entry into the supply zone. Took some heat and had 9 hours of basing to choose a better entry! Patience is key at these higher timeframes!

Attachment ...
Mothafuckin bad ass post. Damn straight baker
  • #278
  • Nov 19, 2010 7:31pm Nov 19, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting bbakker
Here are two trades I took this week which were both set and forget orders. I work of the day charts for my higher timeframe swing trading. I reached target 1 on both pairs so they are now free trades and bagged a small profit. It is all about planning your trades! I like working of the daily! Let's see what happens

GBPCHF:
I set this as a set and forget after it pulled back from the explosive entry into the supply zone. Took some heat and had 9 hours of basing to choose a better entry! Patience is key at these higher timeframes!

Attachment ...

nice post
  • #279
  • Nov 20, 2010 6:36am Nov 20, 2010 6:36am
Here is my weekend analysis on NZDUSD. I will be looking at this pair on Sunday open. Might have missed the boat already. If it gaps up, I will not take the long, but I will be looking to short in the daily supply area.

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  • #280
  • Nov 20, 2010 6:55am Nov 20, 2010 6:55am
Here is my analysis on the NZDCAD pair which I am looking to short

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Patience is key at these higher timeframes!
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