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  • #101
  • Oct 21, 2010 7:43am Oct 21, 2010 7:43am
Quoting Ilovepippin
The 78.6% retracement level at around 4059 now becomes important. On a break there watch for a break of 4158. If it holds and stays below these levels we can see a triangle develop (see pic)
Other options are a 3-3-5, flat correction or something complex. Either way a new high will eventually follow and not a trend reversal...
(unless of course it is a leading diagonal, but probability is low however present, thats the risk of trading, darn..).
We reached 78.6% retracement, an important level. A break of the high would mean the correction has completed, a drop from this level will indicate more bearish momentum.
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  • #102
  • Oct 21, 2010 8:47am Oct 21, 2010 8:47am
Quoting Oshawa

In addition, if you excuse me for asking a cheeky question: would you mind sharing a count on Aussie? Thanks.
Here another view of the Aussie. This is showing its relation to Mercury longitudinal support/resistance.
Note the highlighted areas where support/resistance occurs. See that bottom in August? That is when all the Ellioticians were speculating on a huge drop, or collapse of the Aussie, and I said it would reach parity, at least.
Granted, up to that point you could count a couple of bearish counts.

You also need to understand some of the fundamentals. Right now there is a currency war and whoever can run the presses fastest will be able to lower its currency fastest, or best. US is winning the QE battle right now. They have to, it is the last resort. Inflation was a lot less than anticipated and with the housing market gone bust, the regular economy is unable to make up for it.

Now with this latest bank and foreclosure issue we will see instability for another couple of months. It may be the setup for another dip in 2011/2012 but we still have some time.
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  • #103
  • Oct 21, 2010 11:14am Oct 21, 2010 11:14am
Quoting Ilovepippin
Here another view of the Aussie. This is showing its relation to Mercury longitudinal support/resistance.
Note the highlighted areas where support/resistance occurs. See that bottom in August? That is when all the Ellioticians were speculating on a huge drop, or collapse of the Aussie, and I said it would reach parity, at least.
Granted, up to that point you could count a couple of bearish counts.

You also need to understand some of the fundamentals. Right now there is a currency war and whoever can run the presses fastest will be able to lower...
Thanks a lot for this. I don't have that longitude conversion indicator so can't possibly do that. I did have some data input lines drawn for some bigger planets but mercury data is a bit difficult to draw using manual data input.

Fundi-wise, QE2 is a bit blown out of proportion at the moment and the market seems to have got a bit ahead of itself. In terms of Oz, its biggest strength is also its biggest weakness: it has almost nothing going for it were it not for China. Mining is the crown jewel of Australia economy, but if there is a cold or a sneeze in China, then Oz is damned. What else does Australia have? Oh, yes, a housing bubble to boot. And the government's extra incentive to keep inflating the bubble.

China is a problem waiting to be dealt with, though I am fully aware of the current mesmerisation of its GDP growth percentage, which in fact is a totally useless statistic. But so is the modus operandi of market media. My opinion of China is not out of speculation or wishful thinking, but only because I know the Chinese situation well.

Chart technical wise, such parabolic moves usually do not end well and all past parabolas got deeply retraced. It's only a matter of when.

Cyclically speaking, dollar and yen may find their cycle point in the not too distant future. I guess it's only a matter of what fundamental events would happen to occur at the time to poke it.

When you have charts such as this, it would be appreciated if you post them. Many thanks!
  • #104
  • Oct 21, 2010 11:16am Oct 21, 2010 11:16am
Quoting Ilovepippin
Here another view of the Aussie. This is showing its relation to Mercury longitudinal support/resistance.
Note the highlighted areas where support/resistance occurs. See that bottom in August? That is when all the Ellioticians were speculating on a huge drop, or collapse of the Aussie, and I said it would reach parity, at least.
Granted, up to that point you could count a couple of bearish counts.

You also need to understand some of the fundamentals. Right now there is a currency war and whoever can run the presses fastest will be able to lower...
Im being curios The GOLD/$ shares the same prospect of the Mercury declination than the AUD/$ ?
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #105
  • Oct 21, 2010 1:26pm Oct 21, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting BeLikeWater
Im being curios The GOLD/$ shares the same prospect of the Mercury declination than the AUD/$ ?
For that you need to study the correlation between Gold and Aussie.
See for yourself:
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  • #106
  • Oct 21, 2010 1:33pm Oct 21, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting Ilovepippin
For that you need to study the correlation between Gold and Aussie.
See for yourself:
Well i already knew they were correlated, but what i wanted to know is if GOLD had that mercury Resistance too.

Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #107
  • Oct 21, 2010 1:55pm Oct 21, 2010 1:55pm
Quoting BeLikeWater
Well i already knew they were correlated, but what i wanted to know is if GOLD had that mercury Resistance too.

Yes, but also to Venus.
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  • #108
  • Oct 28, 2010 8:35am Oct 28, 2010 8:35am
Quoting Ilovepippin
The 78.6% retracement level at around 4059 now becomes important. On a break there watch for a break of 4158. If it holds and stays below these levels we can see a triangle develop (see pic)
Other options are a 3-3-5, flat correction or something complex. Either way a new high will eventually follow and not a trend reversal...
(unless of course it is a leading diagonal, but probability is low however present, thats the risk of trading, darn..).
Here is the progress from 2 weeks ago till now...
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  • #109
  • Nov 3, 2010 8:51am Nov 3, 2010 8:51am
Time for an update.

The triangle scenario played out well so far.
The reason I called it is shown in the chart.
There was a confluence of natural support shown by the yellow line.

The upward cycle has not completed yet, but we are getting closer.
Venus retrograde coincided with a 270 degree Gann time aspect. Both aspect usually call for a correction, not a change of trend.

There was 360 degrees Gann SQ9 support at 1.37 from the 4157 top.
14157 Sq= 118.98
118.98-2 = 116.98
116.98^2=1.3684
Which coincided with Natural support.

Now price is finding resistance at 4060 which is natural support (24 line) from 1.19 to 1.43.

Saturn is moving up and so are prices.
When 1.42 was the resistance, Saturn was in 10 Libra. Currently it is in 11 Libra and by the 5th of Nov it will be in 12 Libra. Price will have room to go up then.

On the downside there is a cluster of support and for this month I don't see a turn in trend. We do have some bumps in the road though...
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  • #110
  • Nov 3, 2010 2:57pm Nov 3, 2010 2:57pm
So here it is, the result from the forecast from 2 weeks ago.
Not bad for something that is not supposed to work
Good for over 1000 pips...
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  • #111
  • Nov 3, 2010 4:39pm Nov 3, 2010 4:39pm
Quoting Ilovepippin
So here it is, the result from the forecast from 2 weeks ago.
Not bad for something that is not supposed to work
Good for over 1000 pips...
WTF WTF!

Next one!!
Greetings, BeLikewater
  • #112
  • Nov 4, 2010 9:50am Nov 4, 2010 9:50am
This is what we need to look out for in eurusd. Resistance in 4500 area.

On the Gann SQ9 from the 2008 high the earliest turn date in Nov 23.

However Natural dates don't support that, so with this one we are going to rely on technical. A break of the triangle is needed to pave the way to higher prices. Serious natural time resistance will occur in Feb 2011.
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  • #113
  • Nov 5, 2010 7:56am Nov 5, 2010 7:56am
Quoting Ilovepippin
Time for an update.

Now price is finding resistance at 4060 which is natural support (24 line) from 1.19 to 1.43.

Saturn is moving up and so are prices.
When 1.42 was the resistance, Saturn was in 10 Libra. Currently it is in 11 Libra and by the 5th of Nov it will be in 12 Libra. Price will have room to go up then.

On the downside there is a cluster of support and for this month I don't see a turn in trend. We do have some bumps in the road though...
So, here is one of the bumps, price was unable to breach 1.43 as expected.
Today is the first day that price could do that, however I think we have further correction to go.
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  • #114
  • Nov 5, 2010 7:12pm Nov 5, 2010 7:12pm
Quoting Ilovepippin
So, here is one of the bumps, price was unable to breach 1.43 as expected.
Today is the first day that price could do that, however I think we have further correction to go.
Do you trade only euro? To me now it seems that Aussie is the most puzzling pair EW-wise (I know strong commodities, interest diferentials, yadah, yadah....). I just couldn't find a proper and reasonable count for it. Any thoughts?!?!?!?!?!? Thanks.
  • #115
  • Nov 6, 2010 6:57am Nov 6, 2010 6:57am
Quoting Oshawa
Do you trade only euro? To me now it seems that Aussie is the most puzzling pair EW-wise (I know strong commodities, interest diferentials, yadah, yadah....). I just couldn't find a proper and reasonable count for it. Any thoughts?!?!?!?!?!? Thanks.
Yes, EW according to Frost and Prechter does not make sense sometimes.
So, glad you figured that out.
There is a flaw in the impulse theory. The market moves mostly in 3's. The impulses are actually part of the greater 3's. Look at the Dow over the last 100 years. Tell me if all upward moves are impulses and all downward moves are corrections according to F&P, and be objective.

And yes, I trade mostly, 90% of the time, EURUSD. Sometimes EURJPY and sometimes GBPUSD.

I lost a lot of money once on Aussie based upon EW counts. It actually brought me to Gann.
I will see about a count....
  • #116
  • Nov 6, 2010 7:12am Nov 6, 2010 7:12am
Quoting Ilovepippin
Yes, EW according to Frost and Prechter does not make sense sometimes.
So, glad you figured that out.
There is a flaw in the impulse theory. The market moves mostly in 3's. The impulses are actually part of the greater 3's. Look at the Dow over the last 100 years. Tell me if all upward moves are impulses and all downward moves are corrections according to F&P, and be objective.

And yes, I trade mostly, 90% of the time, EURUSD. Sometimes EURJPY and sometimes GBPUSD.

I lost a lot of money once on Aussie based upon EW counts. It actually brought...
Yes, I am about to throw Prechter's EW out of the window, or into a fire!!!!! Can't tell you how pissed off I am.

If you can't see a clear count, even just astro idea on Aussie would be greatly appreciated.

Before Aussie broke out higher again this week, last week I thought it would be tracing out one of Neely's extracting triangle or triple (but I know next to zero of his neo-wave) ......aaarrrrrgggghhhhh!
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  • #117
  • Nov 6, 2010 11:39am Nov 6, 2010 11:39am
Quoting Oshawa
Yes, I am about to throw Prechter's EW out of the window, or into a fire!!!!! Can't tell you how pissed off I am.

If you can't see a clear count, even just astro idea on Aussie would be greatly appreciated.

Before Aussie broke out higher again this week, last week I thought it would be tracing out one of Neely's extracting triangle or triple (but I know next to zero of his neo-wave) ......aaarrrrrgggghhhhh!
The trend is your friend and right now, until it breaks the mercury line, I would go with the trend.

Potentially this pair could go to 1.20 within a short period of time.
If I count an harmonic wave and A=C then we could reach 1.20. (Sort of like a double zigzag)
Time resistance is in Feb. (2/1/2011).
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  • #118
  • Nov 6, 2010 11:56am Nov 6, 2010 11:56am
Quoting Ilovepippin
The trend is your friend and right now, until it breaks the mercury line, I would go with the trend.

Potentially this pair could go to 1.20 within a short period of time.
If I count an harmonic wave and A=C then we could reach 1.20. (Sort of like a double zigzag)
Time resistance is in Feb. (2/1/2011).
Ta muchly. Do you look at COT? It's very puzzling... http://forexforums.dailyfx.com/647921-post39.html

The much awaited and anticipated market turn in around mid-October didn't come at all. I wonder if it could be said as another inversion, instead of down, it went up....

In addition, the big boys increased their long dollar positions, and lightened up long Swissy and Aussie, and increased Aussie short positions. This might be setting up for a big surprise.
  • #119
  • Nov 7, 2010 7:37pm Nov 7, 2010 7:37pm
I checked the AstroNN from Marketcheck.UK.
Latest update on eurusd still pointing up...
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  • #120
  • Nov 8, 2010 2:38pm Nov 8, 2010 2:38pm
Interesting reading: http://www.educatedanalyst.com/cycle...ting-phenomena
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