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Is 90% of TA useless?

  • #41
  • Oct 25, 2010 7:23am Oct 25, 2010 7:23am
Only 1-5% traders make pot loads of money in trading 'consistently' over a longer period. Their exorbitant standard of living reflects their trading success.

The rest 95-99% loosing traders gives their money to the winning traders in this zero sum game.

Trading industry is a big GLOBAL SCAM. TA as a human innovation has been used to make money in selling signals, services, trading seminars. This is a parallel global billions of dollars industry going on where failed traders teaches budding traders

David Aronson's busted the butt of Global Trading Scam but people memories are poor and hence we are back to square one.

Failed traders make a living out of selling 'associated trading services'. They do not make any money in trading.

Read WINNERS TAKE IT ALL- http://www.amazon.com/Winner-Take-Al.../dp/0786311916

"He had used 76 out of his 229 page book to elaborate the "real failure stories" of Gann, Larry Williams, Richard Dennis, and the absurdities of Elliot waves and Fibonacci numbers."

DONT STOP GLOBAL TRADING SCAM:

The associated trading business industry which sells signals, seminars, education, books, automatic robots generates revenue and helps in global GDP Production. It also helps to maintain the top traders lifestyle as they swallow all the money which market has to offer using 'bouts of volatility'.

This GLOBAL TRADING SCAM industry generates emoloyment as well. We know spending, revenue, emoloyment is vital to increase global GDP and standard of living across the globe as money flows into economy as a multiplier. So do not stop SCAM ridden TRADING INDUSTRY.

Let it continue and let it grow.
  • #42
  • Oct 25, 2010 8:10am Oct 25, 2010 8:10am
Quoting mario83
Hello everyone as it's my first post o the board


Reading this thread i came up to the conclusion - learn TA from the basics and try to use it in the trade but adjust it every time to the situation.

Am i wrong / correct?

Cheers
Kind of.

But when adjusting, don't adjust for adjusting sake.
  • #43
  • Oct 25, 2010 8:22am Oct 25, 2010 8:22am
Quote
Forums suck man... You wont learn much here

Well said. Many successful traders who in reality make money here and also on other forum like T2W, traders laboratory, elite trader have left the forums to enjoy their wealth.
  • #44
  • Oct 25, 2010 9:58am Oct 25, 2010 9:58am
TA is based on psychology

if multiple groups of traders are looking at the same TA, then you have multiple groups of traders getting INTO the market at that point, and then that would increase your chances on the trade

by extension, if you have multiple pieces of TA lining up at the same time (multiple patterns, indicators, whatever), then you have a larger number of traders looking at it and thus more probability for that trade

I have been in several trading rooms all using similar methods of analysis

If indicators (and I am not a fan of exclusively using indicators) can be right 50% of the time, and price patterns can be right 50% of the time, what happens when you have a Garley lining up with confluence at a trendline crossing your MA? some setups based on TA are "higher probability" because of the increase in the number of signals and HENCE THE NUMBER OF TRADERS GETTING IN THAT AREA-- psychology

the real question is can you put it into play CONSISTENTLY and MAKE MONEY with it
  • #45
  • Oct 30, 2010 3:47pm Oct 30, 2010 3:47pm
One thing that makes me think that 90% of TA is useless is some people that claim to be well profitable by not using TA (making trading decisions based on the belief that history repeats itself) like this thread.

The guy (CrucialPoint) claims to have found some equation/discovery which makes him profitable in the market. He says 'The basic foundation of my system is non-reliant on price history.'
  • #46
  • Edited 5:37pm Oct 30, 2010 5:36pm | Edited 5:37pm
TA is about developing your own personal edge.

I couldn't care less about fundamentals, news, individual candles, wicks, flat tops, round numbers, fib levels, ma's, elliott waves etc.

I know about them, I see them all the time but I disregard them now.

I have traded alongside many successful traders, we can all pick the same cycles / waves / trends but more often than not we have all entered trades at similar levels for different reasons and we will all exit at different take profit levels. We are all correct in our analysis, we all trade by our own rules and have utter confidence in them.

Heck I even trade the opposite direction to other trader friends, they are waiting to reach their entry level, I am trading to it.

I have my own special little candlestick / price action pattern and it works for me.

Study PA until you find your own edge, trade it and build your confidence in it.

I say 99% of TA is useful, you just need to work out the 99% that is useful to you.
  • #47
  • Nov 3, 2010 8:15am Nov 3, 2010 8:15am
Quoting jag1966
TA is about developing your own personal edge.
...
What can be an edge? Does it have to be some kind of secret method or formula or things like "experience" are some kind of edge too?
  • #48
  • Nov 3, 2010 11:02am Nov 3, 2010 11:02am
An edge is simply your advantage over your competition (other traders). Your edge could be experience but there are lots of people on FF with experience, just it is experience of doing the wrong things, so that by itself is no help.

Your edge might be speed, so after a news release the market does not instantly price in that news so you can enter before the crowd.

Your edge might being knowing what the amateur TA crowd will do and taking the other side of the consistent losers.
  • #49
  • Nov 3, 2010 5:47pm Nov 3, 2010 5:47pm
Most technical analysis is useful but you really have to put it into perspective.

It's like saying "are all tools (hammer, wrench, saw) useless?" It really just depends. A saw is useless for nailing things in, etc.

Basically here's the lowdown about technical analysis - find and learn a few tools that you like and understand.
  • #50
  • Nov 4, 2010 2:07am Nov 4, 2010 2:07am
Quoting mahdiquant
What can be an edge? Does it have to be some kind of secret method or formula or things like "experience" are some kind of edge too?
The last two posters have described a traders edge very well.

For me it is a state of mind. I have decided I don't want to pick tops or bottoms without some sort of confirmation, so how can I get into a new trend with the best possible entry?

Trends work on every timeframe so if I can wait for a "confirmed" reversal (break of trend / support or resistance) on a higher timeframe, I can drop to the lower timeframe look for a trend in the direction of the break and trade that.

Trends are like russian dolls.
  • #51
  • Feb 3, 2011 1:40pm Feb 3, 2011 1:40pm
TA is based on price. TA is not useless, just the way it is used and interpreted is. CP made a very important point that in the "old" days before computers people actually had to think about the logic behind any form of statistical analysis as it would take a long time to do calculations manually. This form of stricture forced a deep understanding of how to use analysis tools, their strengths and weaknesses, which is the best one to use for this condition/situation.

Now the situation is completely reversed. It is really analysis paralysis - no logic applied, just a stream of data generated by indicators which often are derivatives of each other displayed nicely in a series of chart windows. But what do they mean? IMHO, if as an exercise you cannot do calculations for an indicator manually (with the aid of a calculator) you should not use it.
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
  • #52
  • Feb 3, 2011 3:10pm Feb 3, 2011 3:10pm
Quoting Nijee65
TA is based on price. TA is not useless, just the way it is used and interpreted is. CP made a very important point that in the "old" days before computers people actually had to think about the logic behind any form of statistical analysis as it would take a long time to do calculations manually. This form of stricture forced a deep understanding of how to use analysis tools, their strengths and weaknesses, which is the best one to use for this condition/situation.

Now the situation is completely reversed. It is really analysis paralysis -...
I totally agree, all you need is, high low close and a calculator. I just need to wean myself off of charts.
  • #53
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:35pm Feb 3, 2011 10:35pm
crucial point

i read that amazing post on your take on the market and it is one of the best, no b/s things i have heard about trading.
I am trying to develop a style, and the moving average idea is great, im using that to see if i can incorporate it.

i mostly have been using technical analysis to give me order in a chaotic subjective world of trading, and to see what other people see, to take advantage of the psycology, but i am by no means a pro, i am a rookie

i have my good trades and bad ones and right now i have been experimenting to find my style.

you are right in everything you have said.
it is all in supply and demand. for every buyer there is a seller and the market is never wrong, we are wrong in our analysis,
the professionals do this for a living, we have to be prepared mentally.

i know you dont want to be bothered but it would be tremendous honor to have a conversation with you.
to see your ideas, you sound like a very brilliant person, i give you do respect
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #54
  • Feb 3, 2011 10:49pm Feb 3, 2011 10:49pm
Quoting mahdiquant
Hello

As we know, 90% of forex traders are loosing money in an enough long period of time.

As most of these loosers are using technical analysis, does that imply that 90% of technical analysis methods are useless?
Don't know how many make and lose.

But know that many lose because they not only expect but do their best to earn times more than their investment in shortest possible time.

This means that there is no direct correlation between Technical Analysis and losing money.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #55
  • Feb 4, 2011 4:03am Feb 4, 2011 4:03am
Quoting jag1966
I totally agree, all you need is, high low close and a calculator. I just need to wean myself off of charts.
Jag - Good luddites use an abacus!

Interesting that the one of the first things you are taught in stats, especially time series analysis, is to graph data as the human eye is one of the best tools for identifying trends. So even PA relies on a technical analysis tool - charting.

Must admit though, being a relative newbie to forex I find candle charts harder than line graphs to observe and identify trends. That is why I find this whole debate about TA vs PA moot as I have only seen price itself used in indicators. What about other explanatory variables - such as a tree falling in a Brazilian rainforest perhaps! Oops, that would involve using fundamental analysis to help identify explanatory variables. Geez, this forex game is more tribal than religion!
Audentes Fortuna Juvat
  • #56
  • Feb 4, 2011 12:58pm Feb 4, 2011 12:58pm
i find forex a lot less predictible than stocks

in the stock market i came up with a calculation that works so neat in 2 ways
either it gives me the lowest low of next day

or by divergence from price signals me if the day after will close higher or lower

its worked for me so far


in forex: i have winning trades and then unpredictable outcome against me

i suppose is the nature of the beast

2 currency / equals double unpredictability

stocks you just have to predict whether up or down, where supply and demand are

on forex

YOU SHORT the USD you go long the EURO

lets say The USD gains = your short is screwed
lets see the Euro losses= you long is screwed
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #57
  • Aug 26, 2011 9:05pm Aug 26, 2011 9:05pm
lol. 90% of ta useless....... really?
figure out which time of the day the market moves first, then apply ta.
secret society that teaches the real stuff? get real please.
imo, most people fail because they tend to over trade, and people blame on ta?.... lmao.
  • #58
  • Aug 27, 2011 12:15pm Aug 27, 2011 12:15pm
Quoting pkimnyc
lol. 90% of ta useless....... really?
figure out which time of the day the market moves first, then apply ta.
secret society that teaches the real stuff? get real please.
imo, most people fail because they tend to over trade, and people blame on ta?.... lmao.
Well, that's in people's nature to blame someone except theirself.
The logic of the topicstarter reminds me sophistry like "Socrates thinks, a cat thinks too therefore Socrates is a cat" lol.
  • #59
  • Last Post: Sep 30, 2012 3:48am Sep 30, 2012 3:48am
Quoting Screwdriver
Well, that's in people's nature to blame someone except theirself.
The logic of the topicstarter reminds me sophistry like "Socrates thinks, a cat thinks too therefore Socrates is a cat" lol.
I love this. . . TA isn't useless but fundamentals are better
when you can accurately predict the future, you leave nothing to chance.
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